Value in Opening Lines

[nash13]

Hello everyone,

i think i found a good loophole in Odds Data for smaller markets. Main reason for success is to get the lines from middle sized bookies before Pinnacle "defines" the market.
I'd like to know how scheduling and releasing of odds in the market works.
Let's take a Tennis Game for example.
When is the Time the bookies release their odds for the upcoming game:
right after the draw is determined?
or do they wait for others to step forward.

I know it sounds hard, but catching up to the opening odds vs the closing odds in smaller markets may lead to doubling your profits.

[Waterstpub87]

Depends which book, and which market. Don't know about tennis, but you can use SBRodds to find out when things opened in specific markets.

[nash13]

I see a lot of value in tennis, since the odds are very unstable from the start.
my analysis short term showed a lot of potential in challenger matches.

[danshan11]

the margin in tennis is huge. you have to be super talented to beat that huge margin, I think its like 5.5 to 6% on tennis matches overall

[Waterstpub87]

I see a lot of value in tennis, since the odds are very unstable from the start.
my analysis short term showed a lot of potential in challenger matches.

Yes, but the limits in challenger matches tend to be low. I don't really bet the sport, but the easiest way might be to just check the site every hour or so to see when they post. Or you could just ask them, sometimes they are happy to tell you "We post the lines 24 hours before hand"

[nash13]

Not only Challenger matches. They are more unstable.
But i have found several swinging matches in ATP/WTA day in day out.
Today Tsonga/Gojowczyk was a superb example:
lower bookies opened the game at
1.88 Tsonga
2.38 Gojowczyk

Closing lines Pinnacle:
1.74 Gojowczyk
2.20 Tsonga

so i have several sources for good pre match data to have an edge once the match up is determined. the best time is to catch the odds at mid term bookies before pinnacle opens their lines.

[Alfa1234]

If you can identify the value beforehand and predict accurate lines, there is no need to use soft books but you can simply pound the Pinnacle opening line if they are off without having to worry about getting the boot from your bookie.

[nash13]

If you can identify the value beforehand and predict accurate lines, there is no need to use soft books but you can simply pound the Pinnacle opening line if they are off without having to worry about getting the boot from your bookie.

On actual odds for Soft Bookies the system had 117 W - 64 L with 31.99 Profit at 1 Unit per Bet in 1 week.
Now is the time to determine if the actual opening odds at Pinnacle have the same effect.

[danshan11]

I dont understand what that means can you please clarify?

[Waterstpub87]

If you can identify the value beforehand and predict accurate lines, there is no need to use soft books but you can simply pound the Pinnacle opening line if they are off without having to worry about getting the boot from your bookie.

I disagree. Consider Cbb totals. Not that bookmaker is a soft book, but they open totals the night before, where as most books open at 8 am. Many move as much as 4 pts, which is an absurd advantage that you would not get waiting for pinnacle.

As, no need to avoid getting limited at a square book if the end result is your going to bet at pinnacle anyway. Take what you can get and move on.

[nash13]

I dont understand what that means can you please clarify?

i have identified a selection criteria which gives me an edge at starting lines, but these are posted earlier on soft bookies like marathon.
in my example i have 117 W - 64 L with 31.99 Profit. these are opening lines at marathon.
Now the main problem for me is to determine if there is a "real" opportunity to make profits once a bookie like pinnacle opens, and how big is that window to catch up.
if the opportunity fades away in minutes or as soon as pinnacle opens, its not worth the time.
but to test that, i have to know when to look for the odds to drop.

[Alfa1234]

Seems pretty simple to me...simply check on odds portal what the Pinnacle opening line was for those games you already took and see if there is an edge in the games you identified.

Also double check with the closing line to see if you got lucky or have real value.

[Alfa1234]

I disagree. Consider Cbb totals. Not that bookmaker is a soft book, but they open totals the night before, where as most books open at 8 am. Many move as much as 4 pts, which is an absurd advantage that you would not get waiting for pinnacle.

As, no need to avoid getting limited at a square book if the end result is your going to bet at pinnacle anyway. Take what you can get and move on.

Yes obviously it's easier to use the softs and you'll get more value, but once you are limited everywhere you'll have to evolve.

[nash13]

Seems pretty simple to me...simply check on odds portal what the Pinnacle opening line was for those games you already took and see if there is an edge in the games you identified.

Also double check with the closing line to see if you got lucky or have real value.

i am doing that, main thing is to identify the time table pinnacle has once they drop their lines. marathon is hours ahead, but their odds are moving in crazy margins.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

i am doing that, main thing is to identify the time table pinnacle has once they drop their lines. marathon is hours ahead, but their odds are moving in crazy margins.

Marathon have some absolutely daft openers at times in tennis. I have logs of all their prices, and sometimes they are just miles off - especially at the slams. Of course, that's the cost of being first mover, and they have very low margins too so no protection there.

Of course, if you hit those openers, you're going to get limited to 1% stakes or whatever. That's why they're not too bothered about being accurate with them.

[Alfa1234]

Marathon have some absolutely daft openers at times in tennis. I have logs of all their prices, and sometimes they are just miles off - especially at the slams. Of course, that's the cost of being first mover, and they have very low margins too so no protection there.

Of course, if you hit those openers, you're going to get limited to 1% stakes or whatever. That's why they're not too bothered about being accurate with them.

This. You'll be limited to 1€ stakes after 1 or 2 bets with Marathon.

If the Pinnacle line is off, it'll start moving immediately after they open the market.

[nash13]

thanks for all the insight guys.
i hope i can find an edge with pinnacle and other bookies. will keep this updated.

[the shadow]

Pinnacle plays off betonline, who i think is the real opener. According to sbr.

[danshan11]

BOL is the earliest with lines by far but they are not that sharp honestly

[danwinkler]

Betonline is not sharp at all. They are square as they come and they kick out or limit long term winning bettors.

[danshan11]

how can they kick out long term or big winners. A how do you win at BOL on -110 lines nearly impossible except a very small tiny number of games and when i say tiny I mean a very small game count to beat a -110 line and there lines turn to pinnacle as soon as pinnacle releases and any lines they have before pinnacle are like 250 limits and if you bet the 250 they move the line at least a dime instantly. Maybe I am just dumb but that seems really hard to beat that or make any real money!

[Alfa1234]

how can they kick out long term or big winners. A how do you win at BOL on -110 lines nearly impossible except a very small tiny number of games and when i say tiny I mean a very small game count to beat a -110 line and there lines turn to pinnacle as soon as pinnacle releases and any lines they have before pinnacle are like 250 limits and if you bet the 250 they move the line at least a dime instantly. Maybe I am just dumb but that seems really hard to beat that or make any real money!

They kick out long term winners, but handicap -110 lines isn't all they are offering. Loads of props, soccer and smaller sports as well. They are fairly sharp in the major US sports and follow SBObet lines in soccer, but they have very weak prop and small sport lines.

[danshan11]

They kick out long term winners, but handicap -110 lines isn't all they are offering. Loads of props, soccer and smaller sports as well. They are fairly sharp in the major US sports and follow SBObet lines in soccer, but they have very weak prop and small sport lines.

yeah the 250 limits make it hard to beat and I was referring to the big market stuff in general, but I get your point

[Alfa1234]

yeah the 250 limits make it hard to beat and I was referring to the big market stuff in general, but I get your point

Limits don't matter how beatable they are. You can beat a book with 10$ limits if their lines are soft...you'll just make less. Betonline has soft lines in all non-US and non-soccer sports.

[nash13]

With opening lines at soft bookies i got 9% Yield in 2 weeks.
Same picks with opening lines at pinnacle dropped to 4%.
Closing lines at pinnacle got a yield of 3%.
I don't know if these stats tell me anything further to consider.
My conclusion is, if you are fast enough to catch the flawed odds which include value once they open at pinnacle you may have an edge to earn some profit. but this is after 450 picks. i need at least 10 times more.

[danshan11]

so you are going to book A and they are -210 and you are seeing that same game at pinnacle -250, right?

[gojetsgomoxies]

mostly grunching here..i see OP was talking about smaller markets...

i've been analyzing line movements in NCAA F and it looks like recently they've been highly predictable. basically large spreads get larger. i also think i could filter/refine the rule more with a little bit of work/thought.

is this just the last couple of weeks i.e. recently? or is that something that is permanent? if you think about it, who would Joe Public rather bet on? Ohio State or Tulane? many probably don't even know what Tulane is (i.e in NO, very good school, law school is famous)

basically the 4 biggest public teams this week are OHS, VT, Georgia (and UNLV, which doesn't fit my narrative). of the top 16 public teams (i did 60% or higher), only a few are underdogs i think.

[nash13]

so you are going to book A and they are -210 and you are seeing that same game at pinnacle -250, right?

indeed. the point is as the line opens at pinnacle a huge movement is happening in minutes. mostly for smaller markets.
there may be some specialists out there catching the lines right at the start and they identify value.

[danshan11]

so we are saying our small book model is off and pinnacle is right so we bet the small market line knowing it will quickly adjust to the pinnacle line. I think even if this is possible I think the limits are pretty low at the small book until pinnacle comes out. I mean even BOL opens and sets limits at 250 and they dont move off 250 until they have done the pinnacle juggle and then they move to like 1000. Let's assume BOL is off by an average of 1% if we bet a 100 times at BOL on that soft number of 1% off we bet a total of 25,000 and we would net profit of 250 bucks with a 1% edge. this is indeed profit and nice but really hard to make a good profit off of 250 bucks over 100 wagers. Also how many times is this happening on say 1000 games say 10-15% that is only 150 games to bet on, slim picking as a profit source. I like the idea and love the +EV but the profit hole seems small. My numbers are not perfect but I think generally are sound. Would love your opinion.

[the shadow]

Anyone know what off-shore books handle the most bets in volume per day?

[nash13]

the main problem is the effect of timing the bet:
i have a tennis model which predicts the data well from my view.
so if the lines from soft bookies include a huge value, is it possible to determine a good bet even if pinnacle offers lesser opportunity.

[danshan11]

Anyone know what off-shore books handle the most bets in volume per day?

I would have to guess pinnacle but really not sure.

[danshan11]

the main problem is the effect of timing the bet:
i have a tennis model which predicts the data well from my view.
so if the lines from soft bookies include a huge value, is it possible to determine a good bet even if pinnacle offers lesser opportunity.

again TEnnis has a huge margin and for that alone even good numbers are just not good enough in most cases, not doubting your idea or skill but I believe Tennis is very tough just because of the huge margin. I mean does the line in Tennis even move enough on enough games to cover the margin and variance in general?

[nash13]

it moves o much that there are mostly opportunities for surebets.
on a regular monday you can find at least 5 or 8 surebet opportunities if you can get the trend right.
but that's the hardest point. once you have a pattern identified it leads to lower bet sizes and looses value.
so going back to the main premise: if you can find a big bookmaker that holds on to the value of the soft bookie, you will be in green no matter what long term.

[danshan11]

honestly I am getting a little bit confused on how what you are doing works. for me I am not sure what is going on exactly so I probably should not comment until I get some clarity from you. I would love to discuss further, maybe you can give me a hypothetical example.