Using the SBR Calculator to Evaluate Handicapper Inflation

**Thicht** · 08-22-18, 10:18 PM

Are Betpoints valuable, can they be transferred, 150 Betpoints for the answer!? OR if its allowable 50 bucks in bitcoin transfer for the answer! (If not allowed my humble apologies and please forgive me).

**danshan11** · 08-23-18, 10:13 AM

first thing is you should use pinnacles lines as the "true" line.
so lets say Pinnacle has +10 at -105 and you find it at +11 at -105 somewhere else you need to now see what that point is worth.

two ways use the half point calculator and get the costs to get 11 if it is currently at 10 or you go to oddsportal and see what the price for 11 is at pinnacle currently
now you need to see if your bet the beats the margin
so say pinnacle is +10 -105 and +11 is -125 at pinnacle
that is a 4.34% margin assuming its -105 -105 which is 1.22%
so you would have 3.12% in margin above fair.

you are basically paying to win at 50% but actually are getting a 53.12% chance of winning, this is good! you will make money if you can do this over a long enough time to account for variance.

does that answer your question and if so you dont need to send me points or btc. I am glad to help for free!

**Optional** · 08-23-18, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by Thicht

Hello SBR,

Trying to learn some basic half-point calculator math here and would appreciate some assistance. I'm trying to replicate what another poster found regarding evaluating handicapper inflation based on a rogue line as compared to the market line because I want to understand the process but can't seem to do it!

So a handicapper picks a rogue +6.5 -110 when the consensus/market line is +5 -105. This is supposedly 5.1% inflation. (So using the SBR calculator the value of the 6 is 4.16% and 5 is 4.37% if that's going to come into play).

One more example. A handicapper picks a rogue +11 -110 when the consensus/market line is +10.5 -105. This is supposedly 1% inflation (the 11 is worth 3.87%).
I'm hoping a resident forum genius see how we arrive at these using that SBR half-point calculator?

Thicht

Did you see the example link under it? https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/

That might help you?

Maybe post a link to the other posters thread you are talking about too.

**danshan11** · 08-23-18, 10:26 AM

@optional is what I gave him what he was after do you think?

**Optional** · 08-23-18, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

@optional is what I gave him what he was after do you think?

I didn't think it was. But his question isn't completely clear to me so not sure

**Thicht** · 08-23-18, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

so say pinnacle is +10 -105 and +11 is -125 at pinnacle
that is a 4.34% margin assuming its -105 -105 which is 1.22%
so you would have 3.12% in margin above fair.

Thanks for taking a shot Danshan. This isn't going to directly answer my exact question but it's still learning which is good! First of all, I've never been to oddsportal and appreciate your making me aware of this website, it looks like it will come in handy. As for the part I hope it quoted above, can you slow it down a bit and tell me where you got these numbers from so I can replicate?

**Thicht** · 08-23-18, 06:23 PM

Thank you for advice Optional. This is from another forum so I won't link it, but I will take your advice and quote it directly.

By "using the SBR half point calculator to compare them to Bookmaker....we get:

			CRIS line at release		Inflation
10-Jun	GST/CLE un207	-110	206	-110	2.2%
23-May	TOR +6	-105	6	-115	2.3%
21-May	TOR +6.5	-110	5	-105	5.1%
17-May	TOR +11	-110	10.5	-105	1.0%
6-May	ATL +3	-105	2.5	-105	3.9%
29-Apr	TOR +2.5	-110	1	-110	5.1%
13-Apr	MIN -9	-110	-9	-110	0.0%
13-Apr	LAL +6.5	-110	6	-105	1.0%
21-Mar	PHX +2.5	-110	2	-115	3.0%
8-Feb	POR/MEM ov198	-110	197.5	-110	1.0%

That's an average inflation of 2.5%. That may seem like "slightly" to a layman, but 2% is a huge difference relative to sports betting edges. Your VI (Vegas Insider) record normalized for -110 is only 1.17% above breakeven....

So on the left we have a handicapper's posted plays at Vegas Insider and this poster compared that to the actual line available at Cris. I'm simply trying to replicate this experiment using the same tool this poster did, the SBR half-point calculator. I went to the half-point calculator and tried plugging in some numbers but was unable to replicate it. I'm very interested in learning if someone knows the precise way to do it.

**danshan11** · 08-24-18, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Thicht

Thanks for taking a shot Danshan. This isn't going to directly answer my exact question but it's still learning which is good! First of all, I've never been to oddsportal and appreciate your making me aware of this website, it looks like it will come in handy. As for the part I hope it quoted above, can you slow it down a bit and tell me where you got these numbers from so I can replicate?

this is the secret sauce of all betting the movement of the line or buying cheap
so example at Pinnacle the Bears -10 at -105 Broncos +10 -105 (what do we know from this)
we know the bears have a true 50% chance of covering so we pay as if we have a 51.22% chance of winning(VIG of 1.22%)
so if we bet the Bears 1000 times at this rate -105 we would win 500 times we would bet 1050 units and would win 1025 units losing 25 units
so lets say we could somehow buy the Bears at -9 at -105
well this is where it gets fun
now we know the Bears closed at -10 -105 and we know from odds portal -9 closed for -130
so now we bet 1000 times and we win (56.52-1.22) 553 times we still bet 1050 units and now we would win 1133 units and now we would win 83 units
you have to look at the odds and determine your true win probability
if(E168<0,ABS(E168)/(ABS(E168)+100),1-E168/(E168+100))) or you can just use a win prob calc

**Thicht** · 08-24-18, 06:19 PM

I see how you get -25u on 50/50 at -105.

I think you're skipping a step or two, if you can clarify.

I'm not sure where you got 56.52%? Also unclear how the Oddsportal -9 -130 comes in?

**danshan11** · 08-24-18, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Thicht

I see how you get -25u on 50/50 at -105.

I think you're skipping a step or two, if you can clarify.

I'm not sure where you got 56.52%? Also unclear how the Oddsportal -9 -130 comes in?

-130 is an implied win percentage of 56.52%, you need to use that and deduct the margin 1.22% assuming -105 -105.

I made up 9 -130 it is probably a bit low its probably closer to -120, you can check it with a half pt calculator but most half point calculators are not very accurate, you can verify that quickly by using oddsportal and looking at what a half points costs there at the same book.

**Thicht** · 08-26-18, 12:28 AM

Thank you for the revised explanation Danshan.

As for the SBR half-point calculator I was able to almost replicate these, but was slightly off. I am likely missing something! Let me make this as simple as possible to help me with an example and show my work! Who doesn't like when someone asks for help and shows their work demonstrating they tried their best!??!

A handicapper plays Toronto +2.5 -110 and meanwhile the market price is +1 -110. What % inflation is the tout getting?

So I go to the handy half-point calculator, choose NBA, spread, plug 2.5 into spread and fave and dog price are both -110. The 2.5 -110 is equivalent to +1 +113.5.

So now we have apples to apples, the tout played +1 +113.5 while we had to play +1 -110.

The break-even % for +113.5 is 46.84%.
The break-even% for -110 is 52.38%

This pick is inflated 5.54%

The poster, who is Groovin Mahoovin, got 5.1%

I know I'm close but I am far more likely to have made a mistake than Groovin Mahoovin and I plan on using this method frequently so want to do it properly. What'd I do wrong?

Thicht

**danshan11** · 08-26-18, 09:30 AM

first RIP Groovin, the touts miss you, I know they cant say it but they do!

**danshan11** · 08-26-18, 09:32 AM

I dont understand what is the actual question? are you trying to determine if buying points is worth it?

**Thicht** · 08-26-18, 11:19 PM

I'm trying to accurately measure the inflation in the same manner that Groovin Mahoovin did using the SBR half-point calculator as he claimed to have used for his analysis.

**danshan11** · 08-27-18, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by Thicht

I'm trying to accurately measure the inflation in the same manner that Groovin Mahoovin did using the SBR half-point calculator as he claimed to have used for his analysis.

measure inflation for what? what is inflation the difference between the price at half point breaks?

**Thicht** · 08-27-18, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

measure inflation for what? what is inflation the difference between the price at half point breaks?

Yes the % inflation that a tout with off-market numbers will have relative to someone who made the plays at the numbers which were widely available.