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the books use a model computer to get lines basically once they have that line they post it with low limits and let the market move it based on data coming in, A persons opinion, consensus, injuries, details the computer dont see and the line moves. why set small openers because the books know they dont know who is gonna win and they know there model is not good enough to beat the line if it was they would not need to move the line, they would just stick with their opener.. they wait for the line to get ripe and once it is open it up to big limits because now the line is nearly effecient and they now know the actual implied of the game and add some vig and tell you bet on bet on.Comment -
Yes. But it is not nearly so simple as that which is why most sportsbooks go bust. They are constantly under attack by sharp sports bettors and always lopsided on games. They have to limit certain sports bettors. Only the most advanced can take professional bets and manage it.
This is not an argument about how anyone can beat the line. It is an argument about the line being beaten at all. There are games across the board that provide opportunity to win but only if you are perceptive enough to find the value in those games.Comment -
The market also includes sharp sports bettors. When the line moves from 4 to 3, it is not because the market recognized it. It is because one sharp sports bettor recognized the value and bet it. The market then has to beat 3 because 4 is taken.Comment -
And then you have the issue of the Patriots and Spurs that continually defied the markets and posted winning ATS records for years because the market could never correctly value them even when knowing they had not been correctly valued in the most efficient markets in sports.
But again, this entire subject is based on the assumption that professionals have an edge and how it should be managed. It is not a subject of if most SBR posters should bet Kelly. Stick to the subject.Comment -
my original thought still stands 99.99% should not be using kelly for the 7 million reasons I saidComment -
Yes, that is understood. Because if you look at ATS records, they have not been beaten by the average sports bettor.
The problem here is that you persist in false arguments. People have addressed various reasons they bet the way they do and you have persisted in arguments about the value of CLV. There have been zero people that you have understood the basis of their argument and zero people have understood yours except for me because I know you are always focused on the value of CLV at any and all times.Comment -
you say the average sports bettor like that is the minority, assume there are 1000 members on this forum, how many do you think beat the line or as you define it win?Comment -
You are not dealing with the average sports bettor, you are dealing with people in the Think Tank with advanced models. They are telling you why they are doing what they are doing and you are ignoring it because you equate them with average SBR posters. Address the specific issues.
There is hardly anyone on SBR that does not understand the value of CLV.
But if you want to engage with people that are using Kelly and giving reasons for it, you need to engage on a level above CLV. They know the value of CLV and how to use it. If they say they go on more, you need to address that specifically and find out why. That is the debate.Comment -
That is the problem is it is all fallacy and all that other stuff is one of two things NOISE or its already in the line. That is the part you are not understanding.Comment -
That's fine. And you basically got to that point with HeeHaww. You can acknowledge that he is doing something different and express your lack of belief in his method. But if you want to continue it further, you do not tell him about the value of CLV. That is known to him. You engage him on why he thinks his information has any value and perhaps he will explain but more likely he will just say it has over 8,000 bets and it is yours to wonder if it is so.Comment -
tell me one tiny thing that is not in the line when you bet it that gives you an edge, dont tell me how (give up a secret) but tell me one stat or data or thing that matters that is helpful but not in the line? Bad example but like streaks, or hair color, or wig size, anything dudeComment -
Yes, this is the point to address with anyone betting outside of your perception of market value. It is highly unlikely they will provide this information. And if they did, it is even more unlikely that you would comprehend it based on reading comprehension so far. But these are the debates to be had.Comment -
they wont discuss it because it does not exist and if it does exist it is definitely a temporary condition, dude you are stuck on some skill that matters besides beating the line and it does not exist, you sound like a flat earth guy! The way to win in sports is beating the lineComment -
think of anything you think that is relevant and not in the line? Almost every single factor is in the line already!Comment -
Derailed, you are correct. I am not about to discuss my specific criteria on a message board but I will try to address this another way.
danshan11, Derailer's point about you understanding is a valid one. Again, this is not to be mean but you did not know how to calculate an edge, then you posted that you didn't understand EG and then you claim that you want to learn except that you are so singular of mind with CLV that you cannot even open your mind to consider any other possibilities which is why I suggested that you needed more reading and research. It is difficult at best to try to have a conversation on the same page when one of the parties does not have the requisite knowledge and/or information as to what is being discussed.
First, CLV, it is your belief that the closing line is infallible. That is not my belief. Your proof is that the aggregate market is 50/50 therefore each individual game is 50/50. This is where you and I disagree. Just because the aggregate is 50/50 it does not mean that each individual event is 50/50. We could create a line for games by throwing darts or picking numbers out of a paper bag. Do you know what the results of those lines will show? They will also be 50/50 but I would like to think that you understand that the individual lines of our randomly created lines would not always be 50/50 even though the aggregate would be 50/50. Of course the market lines would show better correlation to the actual game scores but the point is that the individual closing lines are not always perfect and are not always 50/50.
My focus and objective therefore is to wager on those events where my criteria indicates that a particular individual line is going to be skewed too much one way or the other. My focus is not to worry about beating the closing line though of course I try to get the best price possible and sometimes that beats the closing line and sometimes it doesn't. The criteria that I use to trigger a wager sometimes tells me to bet the open and sometimes to bet the close. Of course, if I wait to wager until the close it is highly unlikely that I will beat the closing line. All I can tell you is that my wagers that do not beat the closing line are still profitable. I will also tell you that my results are well beyond 3 sd.
Now an actual example of how we can look at some of the same data and come away with different opinions. I had noticed that on 7/26 that you had Atlanta at +122. I assume that you had a smaller line for Atlanta and assuming that the line would move closer to your number you made your wager. I too looked at probably some of the same data that you did and I agree that the line would move but with a different focus. Your focus was to take Atlanta to beat the closing line and my focus was to wait for the line to move to get a better price on LAD because my criteria told me that Atlanta would be overbet compared to their actual chance of winning. I got -125 (not the best price) but I was happy with it even though the Pinnacle closing line was -125/+115. You beat the closing line but based on my criteria and my performance I actually had the better wager. Yes, this one example proves nothing and Atlanta could have won this game but I still would have believed that I had the +ev wager. Only a statistically significant sample (which I have) will "prove" that my estimate for LAD was closer to 60% than the implied closing odds. You can disagree with this if you wish.
I applaud the fact that you are posting your picks and hopefully it will make you listen more and question what you are doing. Everytime someone posts that they are beating the closing line but they are not making any money the answer is variance. I disagree. It may be variance but I highly doubt it. I believe that the fact of the matter is that you are beating the closing line as above on sides that are just being made worse than their actual chance of winning. You realize that even with your small sample of picks you are already outside 2 sd's, not impossible but should at least get you to consider what I wrote above even if at the moment you don't believe it.
Joe.Comment -
No, you're not understanding me. Kelly takes your probability estimate as an input, and any estimate has errors.
As it happens, the Kelly formula copes very well with those errors - in fact, pretty much perfectly. As long as your estimate is accurate, the errors basically don't matter at all.Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 07-29-18, 03:21 PM.Comment -
my issue with Heehaw is the guess of probability
most common ways to guess probability
A. use your past win % over the last million plays, WRONG, just wrong no explanation necessary I hope
B. use the current line that you are about to bet at to estimate probability, WRONG this line can and most times moves
C. use the line your model generates, WRONG this is one of the worst ways unless your model is so good that it probably dont really matter.
by doing these things you open yourself to possible over or under betting using flawed methods, again kelly is not good for sports betting, kelly is good when you know the inputs are certain.
thanks for the info too heehaw very helpful.Comment -
Joe, you and others are just trying to somehow make sense of the betting against the line.
if you bet the Dodgers at -125 for every single time it closes at -125 you will lose long term, why is this scenario better? Are you saying you have better information that is not already in the line than the entire betting consensus. The bookmaker closes the line at -125 because they know there is a 54% chance the dodgers win and you are paying as if there is a 55ish% chance depending on the vig where you bet. They and anyone here would take that bet anytime, flipping coins for +EV, anyone would do it.
here is the Dodgers in history at -125
and you somehow have told yourself that this game is different, come on man you seem reasonable that does not make sense. if you bet at -125 you and everyone in the universe has a 54% chance of winning and are paying as if they had a 55ish% chance, that is bad business.48-47 (-0.16, 50.5%) avg line: -125.0 / 115.0 on / against: -$1,075 / +$605 ROI: -9.1% / +6.4%
you referred to my record and I hear guys talking shit about it, well anyone that has ever done this would laugh, 30 game sample is garbage and I personally have never lost this many in a short chunk but it is completely reasonable and will come back just fine, the point is not my wins, losses the point is my line movement.
you cant beat the consensus unless you have some information that the rest of the betting world does not have and if you did have access to that kind of information, you would be very rich and I would be very happy for you but if you dont the only way to win is to beat the line!
you keep referring to me as lacking knowledge and you are right for sure but I ask can you please tell me specifically the topics I need to research it really would be appreciated, thank youComment -
I think the confusion might be that I keep saying overall you will lose and you are under the impression that in "certain" games you know more than the betting consensus universe. I can tell you I think this is flawed thinking and can lead people to ruins. Why do you have advanced information on some games that gives you an edge and not others? I only place wagers on games when I think the market has not settled on games yet but not that I know right from wrong or have more information on the game, I just think the information has not settled yet and the line is ripe for picking. I hope you are right and I am wrong for your sake and for the sake of the people who are gaining this knowledge from you.Comment -
I think an easier way for someone to understand how beating the line works is to take the 2017 Chargers for example
they went 8-6-2 ATS
8 wins and 6 losses is not bad but lets look and see how if you beat the line every game by .5 point how you would have done and no other factors.
first you have 2 pushes those would be wins with a free half point so now you are 10-6 and that my friend is clarity on how it works and why beating the closing line is simply a great method
with not beating the line you finish 8-6-2 and that is a net of .8 units positive
now with the half point of beating the line you would be 10-6 and 5 units positive
so just buy beating the line by half a point you would be up 4.2 more units on the season, how can you debate that?Comment -
I don't think there are many professional gamblers that try to make their livings exclusively off NFL and NBA. MLB is not nearly as efficient which is why it has the smallest hold. Gamblers focus on markets that can be beaten. They don't try to hammer away at NFL sides.
If a modeler says he has an advantage, it is highly unlikely he is betting major sports exclusively. Learn how people bet and address those issues.Comment
