How to Use SBR Half-Point Calculator to Evaluate Middles

[Thicht]

Hi folks,

I'm trying to determine how many points an NBA total must move to have a breakeven middle.

My dilemma is I often bet Capper #1 at say over 216 and then Capper #2 will come in on under 217. I'd like to know the cost of this. Would I have been better off just passing the play?

I will gladly reward a proper, mathematical answer especially if it teaches me how to use the half-point calculator. Anyone give private lessons? I will pay you!

Thicht

[Optional]

If you click "Example" under the ½ point calculator there is a pretty good explanation of how to use it.

Just input the example numbers and it will become clearer.

I'm not sure it can be used to answer the exact question you are asking though.

[Waterstpub87]

Easy to answer using the half point calculator:

Enter NBA, 217, Total

1.97% is the number next to 217, this represents the push %, IE how often will a total land on this number

Consider you are betting 100 dollars, 50 each side

.0197 * 50 = .985$
.9803 * -5 = -4.90

Yes, you should pass

A total normally needs to move pretty dramatically in order to middle it.

[Thicht]

Hello, Thanks for answering!

So much confusion still.....

98.03% we lose 50 dollars for -4.90
Don't we win the other bet though which is not accounted for??
1.97% it lands on number- did you intentionally have it win only 50 assuming we push other (so if moved 1.5 points this would be different?)

Thicht

[Waterstpub87]

Hello, Thanks for answering!

So much confusion still.....

98.03% we lose 50 dollars for -4.90
Don't we win the other bet though which is not accounted for??
1.97% it lands on number- did you intentionally have it win only 50 assuming we push other (so if moved 1.5 points this would be different?)

Thicht

No, .9803 You win one bet (+50) and lose on bet (-55) for a net figure of -5

Yes, I used the problem that proposed, of a total moving 1 point. The push %'s are listed for the other numbers if you keep pushing the down buttons on the calculator. The math would change if it was 1.5 points, as the push would now be win.

[Thicht]

Thanks Waterstpub87, can you show how it would it work if it moved 1.5 points? I'm not sure how to use the push probability here. Say I originally bet 216 and its now 217.5. The game lands on 216 1.79%, on 217 1.97%, and on 218 2.04%.

[Waterstpub87]

Thanks Waterstpub87, can you show how it would it work if it moved 1.5 points? I'm not sure how to use the push probability here. Say I originally bet 216 and its now 217.5. The game lands on 216 1.79%, on 217 1.97%, and on 218 2.04%.

I set it up in excel normally, but there are probably better ways, but I don't ever middle things (much to my own loss)

assuming 50$ bets each way. I'll give you 218, you have over 216 -110 and under 218 -110


.0179*50= .895
.0197 * 100 = 1.97
.0204 * 50 = 1.02

(1-.0179 - .0197 -.0204) = .942 * -5 (your vig loss) = - 4.71

-4.71 + .895+1.974+1.02= -.821, still losing when you middle with two points. Like I said before, you need to really beat a total in order to middle.