Never lose by 1/2 point again!

**Bluehorseshoe** · 02-19-18, 08:15 PM

Upload to photo bucket and link from there.

**BestBoyMike** · 02-21-18, 10:00 PM

drparker are you going to post the picture? I would be interested in seeing what you think work.

**littlekona** · 02-21-18, 10:31 PM

Dogs you got +points or an under and losing in OT that’s what i hate the most...

**drparker** · 02-22-18, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by BestBoyMike

drparker are you going to post the picture? I would be interested in seeing what you think work.

i am waiting for an nba game that shows the proof so you guys can see my thoughts live.

**drparker** · 02-23-18, 02:22 AM

Looks like there will be one game tomorrow to test this on. I’ll let you know as soon as props are posted

**TheMoneyShot** · 02-23-18, 02:45 AM

I will be watching this system closely

**drparker** · 02-23-18, 03:00 AM

I have the pelicans at -2.5 @ -110 which is perfect for my idea.

**doylebrinson** · 02-23-18, 07:48 AM

I want to show you a solution I came up with for prop bets and get your thoughts!

What is your idea?

**gauchojake** · 02-23-18, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by doylebrinson

What is your idea?

To never lose by a half point again

**drparker** · 02-23-18, 10:27 AM

imgur.com

https://imgur.com/a/lzkG9

Discover the magic of the internet at Imgur, a community powered entertainment destination. Lift your spirits with funny jokes, trending memes, entertaining gifs, inspiring stories, viral videos, and so much more from users.

you can see that on a prop bet I can get pelicans to not cover but to either win or lose by 1-2 and get +900 or +1000 odds. Yes, there is a chance the heat smokes them, but I’m tired of losing by either half a point or 1 point. So I’m gunna try it and see how it plays out

**gauchojake** · 02-23-18, 10:33 AM

Are you betting the side or ML as well or just the props?

**drparker** · 02-23-18, 11:05 AM

You have to take pelicans at -2.5. You then also essentially buy 4.5 points by playing the props and you actually hope the props are what hits.

**gauchojake** · 02-23-18, 11:25 AM

My inclination is that you are going to get crushed doing this.

**drparker** · 02-23-18, 10:53 PM

imgur.com

https://imgur.com/a/LAmN0

Discover the magic of the internet at Imgur, a community powered entertainment destination. Lift your spirits with funny jokes, trending memes, entertaining gifs, inspiring stories, viral videos, and so much more from users.

this is the exact reason I started this thread. It’s nothing big, but it’s a positive winner!

**TheMoneyShot** · 02-24-18, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by drparker

I have the pelicans at -2.5 @ -110 which is perfect for my idea.

That didn't work.

**Gaze73** · 02-24-18, 03:25 AM

Scenarios:
A)Risk 50 to win $7.27 50%
B) Risk 50 to lose $50 40%
C) Risk 50 to win $50 10%
D) Risk 50 to win $87.27 5%

Meh.

**doylebrinson** · 02-24-18, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by drparker

https://imgur.com/a/lzkG9

you can see that on a prop bet I can get pelicans to not cover but to either win or lose by 1-2 and get +900 or +1000 odds. Yes, there is a chance the heat smokes them, but I’m tired of losing by either half a point or 1 point. So I’m gunna try it and see how it plays out

We are betting that the line is set within a point of the result?

If thats the case, this system requires excellent game scouting. Personally, I can see this working for me in the NFL at times. I simply dont have enough time invested, watching the nba night after nigh,t to feel confident this system will show a positive expectation.

**gauchojake** · 02-24-18, 12:48 PM

So here was the bet if I understand correctly

110 to win 100 Pelicans -2.5 = Loss
100 to win 900 Pelicans win by 1 or 2 = Win
100 to win 900 Bulls win by 1 or 2 = loss

net 590 profit

Not bad. You need to see how often these close spreads hit 1 or 2 on either side. I suspect not often enough but maybe I am wrong.

**drparker** · 02-24-18, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Scenarios:
A)Risk 50 to win $7.27 50%
B) Risk 50 to lose $50 40%
C) Risk 50 to win $50 10%
D) Risk 50 to win $87.27 5%

Meh.

Or you could just have a chance to bet $50 to win $45 at 50% chance. You choose

**Marco30** · 02-24-18, 07:43 PM

man that risky...then again we about that life....

**Bsims** · 02-25-18, 04:57 AM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Not bad. You need to see how often these close spreads hit 1 or 2 on either side. I suspect not often enough but maybe I am wrong.

My recollection from an analysis I did 10 years ago is about 3.5 % for a point on either side.

**drparker** · 02-25-18, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Bsims

My recollection from an analysis I did 10 years ago is about 3.5 % for a point on either side.

Im not playing them at 1 point under teaser. Im playing them atleast 4 points just for insurance. A lot of games lose by less than 4 points on spread. Ill take a small win if the team wins, but for everyone of them, im hoping they lose by less than 4.

**TheMoneyShot** · 02-25-18, 03:07 PM

Dr. P. Where do you get odds that pay out like that??? What book?

110 to win 100 Pelicans -2.5 = Loss
100 to win 900 Pelicans win by 1 or 2 = Win
100 to win 900 Bulls win by 1 or 2 = loss

**drparker** · 02-25-18, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Dr. P. Where do you get odds that pay out like that??? What book?

110 to win 100 Pelicans -2.5 = Loss
100 to win 900 Pelicans win by 1 or 2 = Win
100 to win 900 Bulls win by 1 or 2 = loss

Betus. Have to go to props for nba

Nothing matched my criteria today but i did take cavs at -5 and took prop for cavs to win by 3-6 for +550 and cavs to win by 1-2 for +900

**doylebrinson** · 02-25-18, 05:28 PM

Its an interesting idea. If your scouting is good, this will probably be profitable. Have you tried it with the NFL?

Assuming Betus is out of play, what other books are good for the team props?

**drparker** · 02-25-18, 06:43 PM

Never tried for nfl but am looking forward to it next year!

**drparker** · 03-04-18, 12:31 PM

Both the hawks and knicks meet my requirements for this at -2.5 today