100 bets in one day - kelly adjustment?
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BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#106Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#107
And why are you always so eager to change the question? Just answer the original question, please, with no further insults. You'll feel better about it.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#109
How much should I bet on each assuming I want to maximize growth?
And did you read post #101? How about that? Are we over your head on this one?Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#110I answered the question long ago, genius. Remember? It's you who won't address pertanent questions because you have no answer for them. If you admit that you'd remove the 0-98 in that situation, it means that you'd also have to remove the 1-99 from the 100 wager scenario. Look, moron. You're not smart. You found a rare event and catered a ton of worthless criteria that would never happen just to fit it's removal. Get off your high horse, pal.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#111I answered the question long ago, genius. Remember? It's you who won't address pertanent questions because you have no answer for them. If you admit that you'd remove the 0-98 in that situation, it means that you'd also have to remove the 1-99 from the 100 wager scenario. Look, moron. You're not smart. You found a rare event and catered a ton of worthless criteria that would never happen just to fit it's removal. Get off your high horse, pal.
How you've failed here is simply amazing. Not ready to acknowledge that a 3.75E-32 event will NOT HAPPEN in this scenario is really moronic, I'm sorry to say. Is there anything else you want to twist, change, exaggerate, or make untrue about the original question?
And did you read post #101? Are you going to at least acknowledge you understand this, or something on the order of "no, sorry, I don't understand this concept of over 100% portfolio investing."
To say you are "not smart" would be like stating 1 - 1 = 0. I cannot conceive of anything more obvious.Comment -
DazzezSBR Sharp
- 08-04-06
- 258
#112
So now that we've agreed on that can we also agree that 1-99 will not happen and should be excluded from the array of potential outcomes?Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#113
3.75E-32
3.98E-30
2.09E-28
7.26E-27
1.87E-25
3.81E-24
6.41E-23
9.14E-22
1.13E-20
1.22E-19
1.18E-18
1.03E-17
8.10E-17
5.82E-16
3.84E-15
2.34E-14
1.32E-13
6.92E-13
3.39E-12
1.55E-11
6.68E-11
As I indicated previously, the correct answer follows a utility function. But it certainly DOES NOT INCLUDE OUTCOME 0-100.
This should help you produce the answer.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#114Uhh. I worked for a firm on the CBOE for five years, genius. I'm well aware of margin.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#115Here are the probabilities for the outcomes of 0-100 through 20-80:
3.75E-32
3.98E-30
2.09E-28
7.26E-27
1.87E-25
3.81E-24
6.41E-23
9.14E-22
1.13E-20
1.22E-19
1.18E-18
1.03E-17
8.10E-17
5.82E-16
3.84E-15
2.34E-14
1.32E-13
6.92E-13
3.39E-12
1.55E-11
6.68E-11
As I indicated previously, the correct answer follows a utility function. But it certainly DOES NOT INCLUDE OUTCOME 0-100.
This should help you produce the answer.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#116AND YET AGAIN, you're an absolute moron to think that YOU know the optimum risk for EVERY person that would be confronted with such an obscure scenario.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#118News flash: I already noted this. But if you forgot what you read, you are excused.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#120And by the way, my utility is to NOT WRITE OFF OUTCOMES. So my answer is and always has been correct. < 1%. Thanks for playing.Comment -
reno coolSBR MVP
- 07-02-08
- 3567
#121I'm confident I'll never go 20-80 in my lifetime.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#122For somebody who thinks they have the correct answers (but does not), I am surprised you missed this one. But, you don't, so I'm not.
This would be the key where the "*" is on your keyboard, got it? Then type it in again. That is the post number.
And again, why are you so dense so as to not consider over 100% portfolio investing, as I have described here?Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#123Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#124
And the fact that your slow mind cannot recognize this as a real world scenario makes me pity you even more. Please stop and save the digital waste, really. We don't need this.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
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MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#126I want 0 risk of ruin. ZERO!! Get it yet? When you can make 0=3.75E-32 talk to me. And you're attempting to insult me... now that's rich. You hadn't stated anything about a seperate utility function, only I have. Please enlighten us as to the one and only correct answer then, hotshot. I'm sure you won't as THERE ISN'T ONE!!!!Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#127I want 0 risk of ruin. ZERO!! Get it yet? When you can make 0=3.75E-32 talk to me. And you're attempting to insult me... now that's rich. You hadn't stated anything about a seperate utility function, only I have. Please enlighten us as to the one and only correct answer then, hotshot. I'm sure you won't as THERE ISN'T ONE!!!!
Again, 0-100 WILL NOT HAPPEN. It is as simple as that. Why can't you just accept this fact and move on? You don't need to worry about it happening, do you understand?
If I had 5 cents for every wrong post you have made here I would be approaching a sick tax bracket.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#128So 0=3.75E-32? Please provide the math.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#1293.75E-32 will NOT HAPPEN IN THIS SCENARIO. Again, 3.75E-32 will NOT HAPPEN IN THIS SCENARIO. Repeat after me:
3.75E-32 WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THIS SCENARIO. I DO NOT NEED THIS OUTCOME TO BE ZERO.
3.75E-32 WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THIS SCENARIO. I DO NOT NEED THIS OUTCOME TO BE ZERO.
3.75E-32 WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THIS SCENARIO. I DO NOT NEED THIS OUTCOME TO BE ZERO.
Got it? If not, try repeating again. And please stop posting your nonsense.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#130Hey Monkey[deleted],
I know you will never admit to your errors. That's fine. I'm not here to get you to cave in on your obvious logical errors or anything like that.
But for others who recognize that they do not need to consider outcomes that will not happen, they at least have an opportunity to learn from this and consider other ways at looking at expected growth. But you, that would be a solid NO.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#131Wait. Now I want boatloads of risk. I'm confident I can go at least 40-60 and I have BigCap's mother's mortgage to pay off tomorrow or the house goes in default. I suppose I should still bet 1.67%. Right?Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#132Monkey[deleted],
I have read some of your other posts, so I can see some flaws there. But don't worry, I'm not out to get you to admit to your failings here in a public forum. Just that you are making it obvious through your nonsensical posts here.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#133
Really, please stop this useless, nonsense, posting.
BTW, did you repeat the lesson above?Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#134The only nonsense in this thread is the fact that you think you can have a definitive answer to the amount of risk of ruin that EVERYONE should be comfortable with.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#135Monkey[deleted],
I was thinking, that tonight you could run some monte carlos and get the Earth to switch places with the Sun, and have all of this occur for the 11pm news, that would be great. Would you consider that a possible outcome for your future investing?Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#136No nonsense on my end. Unfortunately (for you) all of it originated from your keyboard. Simply put, I am right, and you are wrong. But again, I'm just stating facts and I don't expect you to accept this, so that's ok.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#137Monkey[deleted],
Wait on the monte carlo. Run the Sun/Earth switch AND you acknowledging 0-100 will not happen in this scenario. Get the probability of that and see if it equals zero. I'm curious.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#138You belong in Players Talk, BigCap, not in the Think Tank. If you can't grasp the simple concept of individual risk assessment, then you are a complete imbecile.Comment -
BigCapSBR High Roller
- 02-10-08
- 189
#139
Anybody who cannot recognize 3.75E-32 will not happen in this scenario should be put in a straitjacket.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#140What have we learned from BigCap?
1. 0=3.75E-32.
2. Risk should be the same for everyone.
Brilliant.Comment
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