Am I thinking about this right?

[Waterstpub87]

You don't think I have tried that 1000 times??? No higher win %. Works great on some games and flops on just as many. I certainly don't bet like Billy Walters. Just explaining he will dump a lot just to get the line he wants. That doesn't mean he knows something.

I hope you win this year. Although I don't think any system can win overall, I hope you prove me wrong.

Good luck to you as well, especially with everyone's favorite sport on the way

[evo34]

I think you are confused. If you claim that math has ever shown any long term success in sports gambling, you have the burden to prove that, which you can't because it never has. The reason it is fact is because countless people have tried using math in sports betting and not one has been successful. If there was one everyone would be using it including both of us.

You are being intellectually dishonest. You know I was talking about sports betting when I meant math has nothing to do with sports handicapping. Obviously casinos do. I didn't know I had to say that since everyone knows it. The 2 things are totally different. Please list all of the math based systems that have created any obvious long term win percentages above the norm.

These results were created using 100% math:

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/evo34/cappermetrics/Baseball/MLB

Now what do I win?

[evo34]

I am saying the risk of losing $1000 dollars is not worth the optimistic $10 dollars you might win. All it takes is a couple uncontrollable variables and you lose. I don't see that as an advantage at all. You can call it a system if you want.

I disagree with everything. Opening lines are made as a 50/50 goal of action on the game.. The final line is a direct result of where the money is bet to maintain the closest even amount bet on each bet. They do have an uncanny way of being close but books have no concern of predicting any outcome. The only outcome they care about is getting even money on both sides. If they have to radically modify the line to do so they will with no concern that it predicts any outcome.

The idea of so called sharps winning or knowing when to bet is ridiculous. They win no more % of their bets than anyone else. The only thing thing whales do is change the line to get even action on the game. Billy Walter would put a ton of money down just to move a line where he wanted it. He has a horrible win %. He just makes larger bets til he wins one and everyone thinks he knows something nobody else knows. With all due respect, it seems like you have inaccurate view of sports betting in general.

Guy fails miserably to find an edge in betting sports.

Feels better telling everyone it's impossible to find an edge simply because he cannot.

Classic losing gambler.

[evo34]

I have been betting on sports for 40 yrs and have seen countless failed systems and not 1 successful one.

This statement speaks volumes about yourself...and nothing about how people actually succeed. You're just cluttering the board and not adding any value.

[KVB]

Looks like we are too far apart to go any further...

I recognized this early on and it kept me from posting in this thread.

...Opening lines are made as a 50/50 goal of action on the game.. The final line is a direct result of where the money is bet to maintain the closest even amount bet on each bet...

I will say, however, that the above statement is not always true. I know that the below post reflects more of a reality than many would like to admit...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3050399-equal-action-right-action-lol-didnt-read.html#post23540091

Like I often post: it's not that gamblers don't know, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

Good Luck this season everybody.

[Bsims]

Like I often post: it's not that gamblers don't know, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

I think you have just summed up all humans, not just gamblers. Brilliant!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

How many people on SBR have a 7 figure bankroll??? That is exactly what I said. I just don't think you can call it a system when the entire system is dependent on being a millionaire. Being a millionaire IS the system. That is the only reason Billy Walters has ever made a penny gambling. All he does is chase losses. Is that a system as well????

Ahh no, you've fixated on the word chasing I used - I wasn't talking about market manipulation at all. Just classic high volume, low edge betting.

[maggiethebestdog]

Guy fails miserably to find an edge in betting sports.

Feels better telling everyone it's impossible to find an edge simply because he cannot.

Classic losing gambler.

A computer dork strikes back. Anyone who uses pickmonitor as a reference is insane. TMZ is a more credible source.

So big books don't go for as close to even money as possible??? They focus on the sharp money??? You couldn't even name one source saying that. The mystery man who is the know all but can't be named, lol.

Let's make this simple. I challenge you to a football handicapping contest for NCAAF and NFL. Any amount of money is fine. Obviously you will destroy me with all the edge you obtain with your math and gambling wisdom. Put your money where your mouth is.

[jtoler]

nice thread, others use this method also, ive heard the footballwinning guy talk about this.

[MaddyMax]

when it comes to betting you are your worst enemy. if you can control yourself and take control of your betting instead of betting take control of you, then only you will succeed. Only less than 1% of the sports bettors can do this day in and day out. There is a great article on this, look up "bettingresource patience and discipline"

[evo34]

A computer dork strikes back. Anyone who uses pickmonitor as a reference is insane. TMZ is a more credible source.

So big books don't go for as close to even money as possible??? They focus on the sharp money??? You couldn't even name one source saying that. The mystery man who is the know all but can't be named, lol.

Let's make this simple. I challenge you to a football handicapping contest for NCAAF and NFL. Any amount of money is fine. Obviously you will destroy me with all the edge you obtain with your math and gambling wisdom. Put your money where your mouth is.

Lifetime losing gambler confirms he has no concept of sample size by challenging someone to...a head-to-head football contest? You can't make this shit up!

If you want to challenge someone, sign up at Pickmonitor. Let us know how it goes.

[evo34]

A computer dork strikes back. Anyone who uses pickmonitor as a reference is insane. TMZ is a more credible source.

So big books don't go for as close to even money as possible??? They focus on the sharp money??? You couldn't even name one source saying that. The mystery man who is the know all but can't be named, lol.

Let's make this simple. I challenge you to a football handicapping contest for NCAAF and NFL. Any amount of money is fine. Obviously you will destroy me with all the edge you obtain with your math and gambling wisdom. Put your money where your mouth is.

How could you possibly have been gambling for 40 years and not understand that sharp books move on sharp action?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhHtMiO4MHg&feature=youtu.be&t=244

[tsty]

I watched that video and it seems like that guy is lying through his teeth lol

acting like it's not automated 99% of the time