Let me ask this if a person were to win in sports betting 53% of their bets is this truly profitable when you consider the amount of games that end in a push ? What would be the correct winning percentage including pushes to be profitable ?
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Pushes do not count so doesn't matter. 53% is profitable if you bet the right amounts on your bets. If you overbet, you will go broke.Comment -
Win % is only relevant in relation to odds probability. If you're betting at +115 then 50% is great. If you're betting at -400 then 71% is bad.Comment -
Depends on what you are betting. Like with bets of $100 if you are doing a basic -110 bet with say 100 bets the losses lose you the extra $10. Add those in and at the end of 100 games you really would not win anything . But $1000 a game would. I mean you are looking at what $470 extra lost on -110 games on the extra $10 right.Comment -
53 * 100 = 5300
47 * -110 = -5170
5300 - 5170 = +130Comment -
To many other factors to consider, the easy answer, yes, 53% CAN be profitable.Comment -
If you play the exact same amount of money on every wager, and pay the usual vig (11/10), then yes, 53% is profitable. 52% is NOT profitable.Comment -
^^ THIS
If you are not aware of this then honestly you have no business sports betting, or taking part in any gambling at all for that matter LOL
This is the most basic of basic math that you surely must know to be anywhere near any form of gambling.
Is this post a joke/troll??Comment -
53% could be profitable if you are a very high volume and are betting -110 or better - one thing you have to be careful about is people who hit a high percentage but aren't high volume players- its much harder to hit 54-56% if your a high volume player with 3-4 plays a days than it is to hit 58-60% if your playing 1 game a day.Last edited by thomorino; 07-15-17, 04:35 PM.Comment -
Not trolling on my part. I try to post helpful, if somewhat simple, betting advice. If you're betting on an English EPL game and your team is 12/5 you need to decide whether they're more than a (100% * 5) / (5 + 12) chance to win. If you think they have less than a 29.41% you should either a) Not bet on them, or b) find someone else offering better odds - better than your calculation of the team's chances.
Generally I would advise betting on the money line rather than the spread on a 2 outcome event. Normally there is less juice on the money line and thus a greater chance of the line being in your favour. However If you believe the line is more incorrect on the spread than on the money line you should bet on where the error/book's misjudgement is most in your favour.Comment -
80 percent of my wagers are baseball 'dogs.
I'm profitable at 48 percent, sometimes as low as 44 percent if those +160 dogs keep cashing.Comment -
Well, of course, this is dependent on the price you are paying. I remember when Matchbook was available in North American and I could find -102 and -103 spreads on a regular basis around game time. Too bad they're out of the market, sigh.Comment -
i took to mean that he means 2-sided spread bets, which are most often same odds on both ends.
basically i think you're winning percentage needs to be above (100+J)/(200+J)... for -110, J = 10. for -107, J =7......... not sure that's the exact definition of Juice i.e. J, but that's how i'm using it....
if you don't want to do the exact calculation i.e. no access to computer or calculator, you can take the juice, divide 4 and add to 50% to get required winning %.
so j= 10 and j=7 = 52.5% and 51.75% winning percentage required.. the real numbers are 52.4% and 51.7% which are really close. breaks down when the juices gets much bigger but no one should be betting then.Comment -
Interesting points of view. People mention betting bets at -110 and winning 53% of the time. You cant bet 100% of your bets at -110 . Its just not possible the lines move to much and this the real world. Even if you did bet all of your bets at -110 or less you would have to be extremely selective of your picks at best of what the books offer.Comment -
I know people are winning their bets and still losing money because of the crazy drop in bitcoin price nowComment -
If 1 book is laying an NFL game with Team A @-110 +3 points vs Team B and another book is laying Team A @-125 +3½ points surely you're going to take the 2nd book's line and odds on the underdog rather then the 1st book's line and odds? The SBR half-point calculator suggests at +3½ the odds should be -135.3 rather than -125.Comment
