TIP---keep in mind the number 7 in the NBA........

**pavyracer** · 05-28-09, 09:10 AM

It worked very well last night when Lakers won by 9. What a bunch of bologna!

**SportsLockPicks** · 05-28-09, 09:19 AM

do you have any real facts or can you be more specific?

**jjgold** · 05-28-09, 09:23 AM

I would not question this guy

Just do what he says

**Fishhead** · 05-28-09, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by SportsLockPicks

do you have any real facts or can you be more specific?

The majority of numbers -10 and under during the REGULAR season in the NBA are worth about 6.7 cents(the numbers 2 and 7 more).

In the playoffs, these numbers are worth more because the lines are much sharper.

**Ganchrow** · 05-28-09, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

[the number 7 in the NBA] is a very, very key number, especially in the playoffs. Second only to the number 2.

In fact, the number 7 in the playoffs is ALMOST worth buying on and off of for ten cents..........and in some instances I actually do this if it presents the best number in the world to me.

The number two is one I would buy on and off of in the playoffs if you can do so for ten cents or less.

Upon what are you basing your assessment? The historical record would appear to suggest otherwise. Using data from the 1990/91 season through yesterday:

So what we see is that the 2 and 7 points do not appear to be significantly more important than the other points (and if anything the 2 would have to be considered less important than the higher points).

~~What's more, especially when looking at higher radius samples, the only potentially significant differences between Playoff and Regular Season push frequencies appear on the 1 and 4 points.~~

Originally posted by Fishhead

The majority of numbers -10 and under during the REGULAR season in the NBA are worth about 6.7 cents(the numbers 2 and 7 more).

Betting at zero vig off a 50/50 market and based upon the above (consolidated) radius=2 data the values of each point (in cents) follow:

**pavyracer** · 05-28-09, 11:17 AM

Ganch please bury this fukk!

**Justin7** · 05-28-09, 11:22 AM

I haven't reviewed NBA push rates in about 5 years, but my recollection is consistent with Fishhead. Sadly, I don't have a current database.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 05-28-09, 11:24 AM

What is each radius sample comprised of, Ganch?

**smitch124** · 05-28-09, 11:57 AM

Taking all data points with the spread at the number (R=0)

Taking all data points with spreads within 1 point of the number (R=1)

Taking all data points with spreads within 2 points of the number (R=2)

That's my guess anyway...

**onthewhat** · 05-28-09, 11:59 AM

I would listen to Fishhead over Ganch

Buy off the 7 folks

**pavyracer** · 05-28-09, 12:02 PM

Can someone name one game in the playoffs that landed at 7 points for this buying points theory to have any merit?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 05-28-09, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Taking all data points with the spread at the number (R=0)

Taking all data points with spreads within 1 point of the number (R=1)

Taking all data points with spreads within 2 points of the number (R=2)

That's my guess anyway...

Was wondering which seasons...

**MonkeyF0cker** · 05-28-09, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by onthewhat

I would listen to Fishhead over Ganch

Buy off the 7 folks

You're broke for good reason.

**durito** · 05-28-09, 12:08 PM

Here's a thread about the 2 in NCAAB

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/63345-those-dont-understand-value-2-a.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**durito** · 05-28-09, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Was wondering which seasons...

Covers data 90/91 to yesterday.

**onthewhat** · 05-28-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

You're broke for good reason.

I am?

**smitch124** · 05-28-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Was wondering which seasons...

1990/1991 season through yesterday is what the heading says...

**Ganchrow** · 05-28-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Taking all data points with the spread at the number (R=0)

Taking all data points with spreads within 1 point of the number (R=1)

Taking all data points with spreads within 2 points of the number (R=2)

That's my guess anyway...

That would be correct.

The methodology is identical to that introduced by Stanford Wong in Sharp Sports Betting.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 05-28-09, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

1990/1991 season through yesterday is what the heading says...

LOL. Missed that. Thanks.

**Pancho sanza** · 05-28-09, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

is a very, very key number, especially in the playoffs. Second only to the number 2.

Tonights line is currently at 7.5, thus if you like ORL, make sure you and try and get at least that number, as you will be losing significant value if you only take +7 or less.

In fact, the number 7 in the playoffs is ALMOST worth buying on and off of for ten cents..........and in some instances I actually do this if it presents the best number in the world to me.

The number two is one I would buy on and off of in the playoffs if you can do so for ten cents or less.

Complete bologny, par for the course from fishbrains.

**Peep** · 05-28-09, 01:21 PM

What Pancho says.

Fish must be getting his info from his Captain Video decoder ring again....

**Ganchrow** · 05-28-09, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

So what we see is that the 2 and 7 points do not appear to be significantly more important than the other points (and if anything the 2 would have to be considered less important than the higher points).

What's more, especially when looking at higher radius samples, the only potentially significant differences between Playoff and Regular Season push frequencies appear on the 1 and 4 points.

I just realized that I had been miscategorizing games played at the end of the calendar year as a part of the playoff season.

Adjusted numbers appear in the post above.

I'll point out that the extremely high sample errors of the playoff figures render most conclusions derived solely therefrom highly unreliable.

**Nicky Santoro** · 05-28-09, 02:24 PM

anyone that buys half pts in basketball is putting a gun to his head.. If you are playing at pinny and are playing into an 8 cent line in nba.. why would you buy a half pt and now play into a 10 cent line for?

your hurting your ROI.. it's silly.. always play into the real #, as you are not hurting yourself as much.. by buying that half pt, you are hurting yourself.. you are paying a bigger price.

sorry boys, but only suckers buy half pts.. pinny loves it when you people buy half pts, no matter what the line is.. and games that are common on landing on a specific #, well guess what, you will pay more to move it half a pt..

for example, buying a half pt around the 1 doesn't cost you much, but the more common #'s, you will pay more..

no matter what, when you buy a half pt, you are costing yourself money..

**durito** · 05-28-09, 02:26 PM

like everything it depends on the price

**BigCap** · 05-28-09, 02:34 PM

Assuming fair value line = +7, and push frequency of 5% at 7, EV -104 = .475*100/104 - .475 = -0.018, and EV at +7.5 -114 is .525*100/114 - .475 = -0.014.

So you get a bit of a bump buying up to +7.5 10c. The break even push frequency would be 4.58%, so it even makes sense at 4.85%.

**Nicky Santoro** · 05-28-09, 02:36 PM

you know what i do a lot.. i do this at least on 4 games a day during NBA season.. and this is much better than buying a half pt.

i see a game at pinny and it's +6.5 -108... if i'd buy a half pt, it'd be +7-19... but wait a sec, wsex has +7-10...

so i play at wsex +7-110, instead of +6.5 -108 OR +7-119 at pinny...

that's how you do it, boys.. shop shop shop shop shop and shop some more.. oh yeah... and shop....

NEVER buy the half pt.. if you do, you are a sucker.

**smitch124** · 05-28-09, 04:30 PM

Out of curiosity, what is the radius used and what season's data is in play for the 1/2 point calculator in the NBA?

**Ganchrow** · 05-28-09, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Out of curiosity, what is the radius used and what season's data is in play for the 1/2 point calculator in the NBA?

Between 1.5 and 3, depending upon the magnitude of the spread.

I believe I last updated in the middle of last season.

**smitch124** · 05-28-09, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

Between 1.5 and 3, depending upon the magnitude of the spread.

I believe I last updated in the middle of last season.

Thanks for the response, great tool.

**danger** · 05-30-09, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

Upon what are you basing your assessment? The historical record would appear to suggest otherwise. Using data from the 1990/91 season through yesterday:

Ganchrow, what is your source of updated final scores? I had been downloading box scores from sportstracker.nss.net, but that site seems to have gone away. I could crawl Yahoo!, but was wondering if there were other sites that were easier to get, and would prefer text-based data versus HTML.

I have box scores from major sports back to 1998 and am working on replicating your half point calculator. I may have enough data to do quarter and halftime lines as well.

**Fishhead** · 05-30-09, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

you know what i do a lot.. i do this at least on 4 games a day during NBA season.. and this is much better than buying a half pt.

i see a game at pinny and it's +6.5 -108... if i'd buy a half pt, it'd be +7-19... but wait a sec, wsex has +7-10...

so i play at wsex +7-110, instead of +6.5 -108 OR +7-119 at pinny...

that's how you do it, boys.. shop shop shop shop shop and shop some more.. oh yeah... and shop....

NEVER buy the half pt.. if you do, you are a sucker.

Fact is........I TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU 99.94%.

But I would be lying if I said I have never bought a half point in the NBA(on rare occassions).

More then one factor will pursuade me to do such, and explaining this would take up to much of my time right now. When I do, there is definetly a possibility that I will SLIIGHTLY be taking the worst of it, but also perhaps not.

Point is, I totally agree with what you have posted in this thread Nicky. You know me well enough to know that I'm a HUGE proponent of line shopping and getting the best line..........in all sports.

**pavyracer** · 05-30-09, 10:10 AM

Another Fishhead stupid idea. If you bought the points yesterday for Lakers at +5.5 your bookie would have laughed all the way to the bank. It would have cost you 80 cents juice or more to get it to +7.5.

**Fishhead** · 05-30-09, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Another Fishhead stupid idea. If you bought the points yesterday for Lakers at +5.5 your bookie would have laughed all the way to the bank. It would have cost you 80 cents juice or more to get it to +7.5.

I'm not advocating buying 2 points, for goodness sakes..........

Please read my previous post.

**pavyracer** · 05-30-09, 02:57 PM

How many games so far had the number +7.5 and how many games ended 102-95 so far?