Is the overall baseball market as efficient.....

**cassiusclay** · 05-20-09, 04:35 PM

I have a question for you about public opinion and line movements specific to baseball.....i tried to ask ray but i will settle for your opinion....

**cassiusclay** · 05-20-09, 04:47 PM

the specific game is pitt/nats tonight, public all over pitt and the line is increasing instead of decreasing...

**The General** · 05-20-09, 04:51 PM

Hey guys. Good to see you around.

**cassiusclay** · 05-20-09, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by The General

Hey guys. Good to see you around.

Pete

**cassiusclay** · 05-20-09, 04:56 PM

The General
Moderator

Did you lose a bet? Patriots? Uggghhh.

**ChuteBoxe** · 05-20-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by OSUCOWBOYS

as the other major sports? I am noticing that the games the market is moving off the openers don't seem to be as strong as in other major sports.

Is this just an anomaly of a relatively small sample? Or is this something to expect moving forward? Thoughts?

I've noticed the same thing the past 3 seasons...Just what I've picked up, no number analysis to back up the theory here either. The consesus' opinion while incorperating the line move (including, but not limited to, rlm and steam) definitely seems like an amateur tool in handicapping baseball, as compared to it holding more weight in football/basketball. It's more about finding value in the number, then picking the right side, due to the variation and length of season in the game.

**durito** · 05-20-09, 05:14 PM

Look at the limits.

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 05-20-09, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by cassiusclay

the specific game is pitt/nats tonight, public all over pitt and the line is increasing instead of decreasing...

I think this line will close lower than it opened and it is actually moving down as I type.

I generally think there is inherent value fading the "public" market but it isnt the public market betting on the Nats. That you can count on.

This is first time I have seen 6+ weeks of beating the closing number (the median Pinny closing number to be specific) and it not producing the expected results.

Is this just variance? I am starting to question the market efficiency.

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 05-20-09, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by durito

Look at the limits.

They are the same as in any other major sport. Would you please take a moment to expand on your thought?

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 05-20-09, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by The General

Hey guys. Good to see you around.

**durito** · 05-20-09, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by OSUCOWBOYS

They are the same as in any other major sport. Would you please take a moment to expand on your thought?

Not really.

Pinny takes 30k NFL sides, 20k NBA Sides, 20k MLB ML's, and 5k NHL ML's (reg season)

I'd extrapolate that to believe the NFL market is most efficient and the NHL the least. That' also been my personal experience, though I know nothing of MLB betting.

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 05-20-09, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by durito

Not really.

Pinny takes 30k NFL sides, 20k NBA Sides, 20k MLB ML's, and 5k NHL ML's (reg season)

I'd extrapolate that to believe the NFL market is most efficient and the NHL the least. That' also been my personal experience, though I know nothing of MLB betting.

I agree with your findings. To further my thought though, I have historically been very successful in the NBA with +EV positions (same limits as MLB). I have not enjoyed the same success rate in the MLB.

It seems there are only two logical explanations:

1. Market efficiency isnt as high as I have given it credit.
2. I have ran into a sample with a negative variance.

Is there something else that I might not be taking into consideration?

**The General** · 05-20-09, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by cassiusclay

The General
Moderator

Did you lose a bet? Patriots? Uggghhh.

Nah, just goofing around, Cass.

**Munson15** · 05-20-09, 10:53 PM

Good to see you, OSU. I tracked 20-cent moves in bases last year and got nowhere with it. This was over a few months time.

**byronbb** · 05-21-09, 03:37 AM

I've heard only sharp money moves MLB lines.... No idea if that's true.

**cassiusclay** · 05-21-09, 06:49 AM

unlike other sports, baseball has so many variables. i am starting to give the guys who bet the 1st 5 innings some credit, i see some really nice trends betting 5...

**cassiusclay** · 05-21-09, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by The General

Nah, just goofing around, Cass.

it's almost that time Pete...

**cassiusclay** · 05-22-09, 08:31 AM

cav's -9 tonight fits the program...

**Jaug** · 05-23-09, 05:07 AM

Originally posted by OSUCOWBOYS

I agree with your findings. To further my thought though, I have historically been very successful in the NBA with +EV positions (same limits as MLB). I have not enjoyed the same success rate in the MLB.

It seems there are only two logical explanations:

1. Market efficiency isnt as high as I have given it credit.
2. I have ran into a sample with a negative variance.

Is there something else that I might not be taking into consideration?

I've had the same experience as you but in other pinnacle sports.

The thing i did was look at pinnys line and then bet on a slow moving book which gave me a surebet och 100% return if I had bet both sides. Instead I just bet the side that was not pinnacle. The results were horrible, over 546 games I had a ROI of 93.9%. After that I quit this strategy but it is still my biggest losing strategy.

The sports I beat the lines in were NHL, NFL and NBA, and as I wrote above I beat them by a very wide margin every time.

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 05-24-09, 12:06 PM

Justin, Ganch? You guys have any thoughts?

Thanks in advance.