stacking open parlay sets with discipline for consistent returns

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  • Snowball
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 11-15-09
    • 30054

    #1
    stacking open parlay sets with discipline for consistent returns
    I haven't been posting in the last few weeks, because the strategy
    I've developed does not readily applicate to quick pick/talk about the game
    banter. Admittely, I do miss that, however from now on I'll only be
    putting out those plays when the instance of a close-out entry on
    a string of plays affords such an enjoyment.

    This is a fine-tuning of the open parlay, stacking all-in until a predetermined exit,
    setting out 20-40 separate parlay stacks then keeping as many alive as
    possible with 24/7 entries on the worldwide card.

    Try to make each separate stack or mission close out around the same
    time within a 1-3 day period. Do not dip back into the closed and won
    monies which return successfully until all the missions in the set return
    to the roll - this keeps your progress in check and easily referenced.

    Doubtful anyone here would tail all my parlay stacks, it's not really worth the
    effort to post them all. Although I have extended some beyond 20 spots, even
    to 25, that's an outlier, the sweet spot is in the 5-12 entries range. This allows
    each to accumulate thrice-fold to a score fold, but normally 1x-5x, adjusting
    the appetite for risk commesurately with the number of living stacks, they are like
    houses of cards, no matter how high you've built, the last card determines the fate
    of that stack so it cannot be taken lightly.

    Thusly, the fewer living parlays you've built, the less risk on odds you want to insert.
    On the other hand, if you've got 10+ rolling stacks, you can afford to sprinkle in
    some ATS or light faves. Concerning dogs, it's better to place them in the start
    of the stack, that way the worst they can do is lose one of your divided principals,
    a pre-conceived fraction of the roll in each set. There is a worthwhile escape velocity
    to be had if you can pick enough ats or dog/light faves at onset or saved for
    the final entry, never in the middle.

    Rounding up the herds of cattle after 1 or 2 weeks, or a month, however you
    plot the set, all the surviving missions or stacks are brought back
    to the roll. It's an adjustible strategy, information on worldwide leagues is available
    and we're in the halcyon calendar months for seamless prospects across time zones,
    UK/Europe (mornings, afternoons), South/North America (evenings), Asia/Australia (overnight).

    Very few players have the discipline, patience, experience cross-league,
    and perception/research skills to consistently win. This strategy does not eliminate
    the need for actual capping, although it does alleviate the time required to inspect
    each play because most plays involve ML or point-buying. When point-buying, round
    numbers are desirable, never hooks. This allows for pushes which keep the stacks
    running - and are set according to habitual thresholds in the given sport.

    Although I use 5d which makes this approach easy without the need to self-track,
    it is not necessary to use a book which allows the open parlay formatting.
    You can utilize the very same strategy with straight bets, all that is required is
    writing down the stacks in a notebook, eraser board, or desktop text file,
    keeping track of each separate string, closing them out appropriately, even
    across multiple books concurrently. You have to stick with the plan, make it real
    and close them out then move to the next handful. Save your passion for going big on
    individual games ats for when you've accumulated multiple sets and can afford to
    close one out on that, only when the others keep you still up on the inclusive set.

    Anyone who wants to discuss this or implement it for a test, make sure you can
    restrict your urges to deviate or it won't work. There comes a point when the
    money matters more than the adrenalin rush of casual/errant gambling. Here, that
    thrill does still materialize, however certainly not on a daily basis.
    Last edited by Snowball; 11-20-16, 11:19 AM.
  • Alex Hart
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-13-15
    • 177

    #2
    I love open parlays. Good luck and I'll be following this thread.

    Patience has been my greatest challenge.
    Comment
    • cmaulsby
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-28-12
      • 261

      #3
      Playing 5-15 team open parlays I look for 1 play a week meaning 2-3 months before completion. These plays are in the -180 and lower range for me so obviously discipline is not a problem. Good luck to you.
      Comment
      • Alex Hart
        SBR High Roller
        • 07-13-15
        • 177

        #4
        Originally posted by cmaulsby
        Playing 5-15 team open parlays I look for 1 play a week meaning 2-3 months before completion. These plays are in the -180 and lower range for me so obviously discipline is not a problem. Good luck to you.
        I usually make mine a 15 team parlay and add 1 or 2 plays a week as well. I've been trying to keep the plays at -200 and below. I've only completed two so far this year. It's very tough but fun.
        Comment
        • Snowball
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 11-15-09
          • 30054

          #5
          Answer to a pm'er...

          Although I said 20-40 parlays per set in the first post, that is really on the
          high end. I have run a couple sets recently which had that many, but if you're
          going to set up a high number then the amount per parlay is commesurately reduced
          by division. Although they don't all have to be the same risk amount, I've found it
          helpful to make it so. A few exceptions don't hurt, but only a small minority.

          In the set I'm running now, I only started 9 of them. It is rare to overlap plays at all,
          that's something you really want to avoid unless you feel very strongly about the play
          AND can sacrifice at least 2 parlays, depending on how many are alive.

          Usually I'll include 1 or 2 lower-odds plays per parlay, no more than that...
          but not always any. The majority are pre-screened favorites, so there is
          still capping involved, understand, I'll dismiss 4-5 favorites at least to every one I include
          for selection. Later in the string I do not cringe from favorites in quite high range.
          Last edited by Snowball; 11-22-16, 07:49 PM.
          Comment
          • Alex Hart
            SBR High Roller
            • 07-13-15
            • 177

            #6
            Originally posted by Snowball
            Answer to a pm'er...

            Although I said 20-40 parlays per set in the first post, that is really on the
            high end. I have run a couple sets recently which had that many, but if you're
            going to set up a high number then the amount per parlay is commesurately reduced
            by division. Although they don't all have to be the same risk amount, I've found it
            helpful to make it so. A few exceptions don't hurt, but only a small minority.

            In the set I'm running now, I only started 9 of them. It is rare to overlap plays at all,
            that's something you really want to avoid unless you feel very strongly about the play
            AND can sacrifice at least 2 parlays, depending on how many are alive.

            Usually I'll include 1 or 2 lower-odds plays per parlay, no more than that...
            but not always any. The majority are pre-screened favorites, so there is
            still capping involved, understand, I'll dismiss 4-5 favorites at least to every one I include
            for selection. Later in the string I do not cringe from favorites in quite high range.
            Would you be willing to post some of your parlay sets?

            I'm curious about how it looks when you stack these.
            Last edited by Alex Hart; 11-22-16, 08:05 PM.
            Comment
            • Snowball
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 11-15-09
              • 30054

              #7
              Ok, here are some recent examples, the only ones I will post, with amounts and ticket
              numbers removed.

              5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/21/16 8:30pm NFL Football 476 Oakland Raiders Over 21 -242* vs Houston Texans
              11/22/16 3:00pm Win 11/22/16 7:00pm College Basketball 516 Pittsburgh -850* vs Yale
              11/22/16 3:01pm Win 11/22/16 7:30pm College Basketball 570 Marquette -1600* vs IUPUI
              11/23/16 11:11am Pending 11/23/16 3:00pm WTA Tennis 858 Evgeniya Rodina -575* vs Michaela Gordon
              11/21/16 1:55pm
              Open 5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/21/16 2:30pm College Basketball 737 Tennessee +18 -280* vs Wisconsin
              11/22/16 2:48pm Win 11/22/16 6:00pm College Basketball 554 Notre Dame -170* vs Northwestern
              11/23/16 11:15am Pending 11/23/16 2:00pm Challenger Tennis 1535 Taylor Fritz -900* vs Mikelis Libietis
              11/21/16 1:43pm
              Open 5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/21/16 6:00pm College Basketball 720 TCU -320* vs Illinois State
              11/22/16 5:38pm Win 11/22/16 6:00pm College Basketball 554 Notre Dame -170* vs Northwestern
              11/23/16 11:16am Pending 11/23/16 2:00pm Challenger Tennis 1764 Tommy Robredo -550* vs Gianluca Mager
              11/21/16 12:20pm
              Open 5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/21/16 1:00pm Denmark Basketball 1541 Horses IC -220* vs Svendborg Rabbits
              11/23/16 10:25am Pending 11/23/16 2:45pm International Basketball 1590 Unicaja Malaga -650* vs KK Buducnost Podgorica
              11/23/16 10:33am Pending 11/23/16 12:00pm International Basketball 1680 AEK Athens -820* vs KK Partizan Beograd NIS

              11/14/16 11:56am Win 10 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 10:00pm College Extra Basketball 655 Prairie View A&M +30 -585* vs Fresno State
              11/15/16 12:03pm Win 11/15/16 3:30pm Darts Other Sports 613 Danny Noppert -180* vs Nathan Aspinall
              11/16/16 10:05am Win 11/16/16 2:00pm Volleyball Other Sports 332 Gazelec F.C.O. Ajaccio -760* vs Narbonne Volley
              11/16/16 10:05am Win 11/16/16 12:00pm Volleyball Other Sports 353 Arkas Izmir -1320* vs Crvena Zvezda Beograd
              11/17/16 7:19pm Win 11/17/16 8:00pm College Extra Football 505 Houston Baptist/Incarnate Word Under 72 -1110*
              11/18/16 2:06pm Win 11/18/16 9:00pm College Basketball 526 Alabama -430* vs Ball State
              11/18/16 2:06pm Win 11/18/16 6:00pm College Basketball 554 NC State -420* vs Montana
              11/18/16 2:06pm Win 11/18/16 7:00pm College Basketball 576 Syracuse -1050* vs Monmouth
              11/18/16 2:07pm Win 11/18/16 7:00pm College Basketball 522 Purdue -3000* vs Georgia State
              11/19/16 6:44pm Win 11/20/16 4:25pm NFL Football 469 New England Patriots -525* vs San Francisco 49ers

              11/14/16 11:52am Win 10 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 12:15pm Qualifying Tennis 3806 Daniel Cox -135* vs Tucker Vorster
              11/15/16 12:04pm Win 11/15/16 7:00pm College Extra Basketball 806 Penn State -1 -410* vs Grand Canyon
              11/16/16 10:07am Win 11/16/16 1:45pm Challenger Tennis 2751 Jared Donaldson -475* vs Ryan Shane
              11/17/16 12:37pm Win 11/17/16 1:00pm Challenger Tennis 2701 Jared Donaldson -245* vs Bradley Klahn
              11/17/16 7:17pm Win 11/17/16 8:00pm College Women Basketball 855 Texas Tech - Women +25 -810* vs Texas A&M - Women
              11/18/16 2:00pm Win 11/19/16 7:30am England Soccer 10071 Any other result -1930* vs Man Utd 2 / Arsenal 2
              11/18/16 2:00pm Win 11/19/16 2:45pm Spain Soccer 11071 Any other result -1830* vs Atl Madrid 2 / Real Madrid 2
              11/18/16 2:03pm Win 11/19/16 12:30pm College Football 326 NC State +17 -1235* vs Miami Florida
              11/18/16 2:03pm Win 11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 328 Iowa State +17 -1215* vs Texas Tech
              11/19/16 3:36pm Win 11/19/16 10:00pm College Basketball 784 Santa Clara -630* vs Northern Colorado

              11/14/16 11:35am Win 9 Team Parlay
              Win 11/15/16 5:35am International Soccer 52 Japan (WC-Qual) -311* vs Saudi Arabia (WC-Qual)
              11/15/16 12:14pm Win 11/15/16 7:30pm College Basketball 760 Middle Tennessee State -390* vs Murray State
              11/16/16 10:15am Win 11/16/16 7:00pm College Football 306 Toledo -1300* vs Ball State
              11/17/16 7:03pm Win 11/19/16 12:00pm College Football 340 Nebraska -550* vs Maryland
              11/18/16 1:51pm Win 11/18/16 2:00pm France Basketball 1665 AS Denain/Fos Sur Mer Basket Over 124 -1100*
              11/18/16 1:51pm Win 11/18/16 2:00pm France Basketball 1668 JL Bourg Basket -550* vs Charleville-Mezieres
              11/18/16 1:51pm Win 11/18/16 7:00pm Mexico Basketball 1601 Garzas de Plata +9 -900* vs Correcaminos UAT Victoria
              11/18/16 1:51pm Win 11/18/16 9:30pm Mexico Basketball 1606 Toros de Nuevo Laredo +7 -1150* vs Indios de Ciudad Juarez
              11/19/16 10:52am Win 11/19/16 1:00pm College Football 320 Boston College -3 -280* vs Connecticut

              11/14/16 11:09am Win 8 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 12:30pm Russia Hockey 1712 Dinamo Riga +1 -160* vs AK Bars Kazan
              11/15/16 12:17pm Win 11/19/16 7:00pm College Extra Football 610 Cal Poly -1 -580* vs Northern Colorado
              11/16/16 7:13pm Win 11/16/16 10:00pm ITF Women Tennis 2905 Qiang Wang -750* vs Fang Ying Xun
              11/17/16 6:58pm Win 11/17/16 9:30pm College Football 313 Arkansas State +21 -650* vs Troy
              11/18/16 1:42pm Win 11/20/16 1:00pm Canadian Football 477 Edmonton Eskimos/Ottawa Redblacks Over 42 -1000*
              11/18/16 1:42pm Win 11/18/16 7:00pm College Women Basketball 703 Michigan State - Women/Western Michigan - Women Over 114 -1410*
              11/18/16 1:42pm Win 11/18/16 7:00pm College Women Basketball 705 Florida Atlantic - Women/Mercer - Women Under 150 -1410*
              11/19/16 11:54am Win 11/19/16 2:00pm France Basketball 1596 Nanterre 92 -600* vs Champagne Chalons Reims Basket

              11/14/16 10:50am Win 7 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 6:30pm College Basketball 580 St. John's -6 -575* vs Binghamton
              11/15/16 12:29pm Win 11/15/16 8:05pm NHL Hockey 64 BUF / STL no overtime -370* vs BUF / STL goes to overtime
              11/16/16 5:42pm Win 11/16/16 8:00pm College Extra Basketball 619 UTSA +15 -685* vs UIC
              11/17/16 6:57pm Win 11/17/16 8:05pm NBA Basketball 706 Houston Rockets -200* vs Portland Trail Blazers
              11/18/16 1:36pm Win 11/18/16 3:00pm Props Tennis 286 Not M.Cilic In 2 Sets -375* vs M.Cilic Wins 2-0
              11/18/16 1:36pm Win 11/18/16 9:30pm ITF Women Tennis 2902 Shuai Peng -750* vs Fangzhou Liu
              11/19/16 4:46pm Win 11/20/16 1:00pm NFL Football 458 New York Giants -320* vs Chicago Bears

              11/14/16 10:48am Win 5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 10:00pm College Basketball 546 BYU -185* vs Princeton
              11/14/16 10:30pm Win 11/16/16 5:00am WTA Tennis 901 Caroline Garcia -750* vs Rebecca Sramkova
              11/16/16 5:40pm Win 11/16/16 10:00pm College Extra Basketball 641 Prairie View A&M +39 -810* vs St. Mary's
              11/17/16 12:32pm Win 11/17/16 2:45pm Rugby Union Other Sports 202 Agen -300* vs USA Perpignan
              11/18/16 6:59pm Win 11/18/16 8:05pm NBA Basketball 509 Golden State Warriors -400* vs Boston Celtics

              11/14/16 10:46am Win 5 Team Parlay
              Win 11/14/16 8:00pm College Extra Basketball 641 Eureka +51 -410* vs Loyola - CHI
              11/15/16 12:34pm Win 11/15/16 2:00pm Euroleague Basketball 938 EA7 Armani +6 -675* vs Saski Baskonia
              11/16/16 5:38pm Win 11/16/16 8:00pm College Women Basketball 740 Vanderbilt - Women -1 -910* vs Drexel - Women
              11/17/16 10:52am Win 11/17/16 11:00am WTA Tennis 1158 Alize Cornet -270* vs Ivana Jorovic
              11/19/16 11:03am Win 11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 402 Tennessee U -740* vs Missouri
              11/1/16 1:51pm Win 12 Team Parlay
              Win 11/8/16 8:00am Politics Other Sports 1075 Republican candidate wins Pennsylvania +450* vs Democratic candidate wins Pennsylvania
              11/7/16 4:43pm Win 11/8/16 6:00am Politics Other Sports 2049 Roy Blunt (R) wins MO election -185* vs Jason Kander (D) wins MO election
              11/9/16 1:48pm Win 11/9/16 2:30pm International Basketball 1585 BC Khimik Moscow -155* vs Bilbao Basket
              11/12/16 10:45am Win 11/12/16 2:15pm Rugby Union Other Sports 208 Montpellier Herault RC -450* vs Lyon Ou
              11/12/16 2:01pm Win 11/12/16 2:15pm Rugby Union Other Sports 204 Castres Olympique -795* vs CA Brive
              11/12/16 6:03pm Win 11/12/16 10:30pm College Football 184 Washington State -970* vs California
              11/12/16 7:26pm Win 11/13/16 3:00am Australia Basketball 1522 Perth Wildcats +7 -1000* vs New Zealand Breakers
              11/13/16 11:58am Win 11/13/16 1:00pm NFL Football 256 New Orleans Saints +10 -1160* vs Denver Broncos
              11/13/16 12:03pm Win 11/13/16 1:00pm NFL Football 259 Atlanta Falcons/Philadelphia Eagles Over 34 -1250*
              11/13/16 4:18pm Win 11/13/16 4:25pm NFL Football 270 Arizona Cardinals -900* vs San Francisco 49ers
              11/13/16 6:07pm Win 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3419 NE touchdowns scored over 1½ -800* vs NE touchdowns scored under 1½
              11/13/16 8:05pm Win 11/13/16 9:00pm College Basketball 730 UCLA -3500* vs CS Northridge
              Comment
              • Snowball
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 11-15-09
                • 30054

                #8
                already rounding off this latest set ( i call them expeditions, composed of missions)
                tonight. sacrificed 5 of the 9, was aggressive on a couple, they went down last night,
                but the 4 remaining you see above and if these close out tonight (likely) that's a 65.5%
                gain in 3 days. low, but that's because I wanted to book the set early ... in time for
                the weekend.. last example.. gl all...

                11/21/16 3:00pm Pending 5 Team Parlay
                Win 11/21/16 8:30pm NFL Football 476 Oakland Raiders Over 21 -242* vs Houston Texans
                11/22/16 3:00pm Win 11/22/16 7:00pm College Basketball 516 Pittsburgh -850* vs Yale
                11/22/16 3:01pm Win 11/22/16 7:30pm College Basketball 570 Marquette -1600* vs IUPUI
                11/23/16 11:11am Win 11/23/16 3:00pm WTA Tennis 858 Evgeniya Rodina -575* vs Michaela Gordon
                11/23/16 6:07pm Pending 11/23/16 7:30pm College Basketball 740 Wake Forest -1700* vs Coastal Carolina
                11/21/16 1:55pm Pending 5 Team Parlay
                Win 11/21/16 2:30pm College Basketball 737 Tennessee +18 -280* vs Wisconsin
                11/22/16 2:48pm Win 11/22/16 6:00pm College Basketball 554 Notre Dame -170* vs Northwestern
                11/23/16 11:15am Win 11/23/16 2:00pm Challenger Tennis 1535 Taylor Fritz -900* vs Mikelis Libietis
                11/23/16 3:52pm Pending 11/23/16 5:00pm Volleyball Other Sports 305 Taubate/Funvic -485* vs Bento Volei /Isabela
                11/23/16 6:05pm Pending 11/23/16 7:00pm College Basketball 732 Villanova -4500* vs College of Charleston
                11/21/16 1:43pm Pending 5 Team Parlay
                Win 11/21/16 6:00pm College Basketball 720 TCU -320* vs Illinois State
                11/22/16 5:38pm Win 11/22/16 6:00pm College Basketball 554 Notre Dame -170* vs Northwestern
                11/23/16 11:16am Win 11/23/16 2:00pm Challenger Tennis 1764 Tommy Robredo -550* vs Gianluca Mager
                11/23/16 6:01pm Pending 11/23/16 7:05pm NBA Basketball 708 Charlotte Hornets +15 -700* vs San Antonio Spurs
                11/23/16 6:08pm Pending 11/23/16 7:00pm College Basketball 732 Villanova -4500* vs College of Charleston
                11/21/16 12:20pm Pending 5 Team Parlay
                Win 11/21/16 1:00pm Denmark Basketball 1541 Horses IC -220* vs Svendborg Rabbits
                11/23/16 10:25am Win 11/23/16 2:45pm International Basketball 1590 Unicaja Malaga -650* vs KK Buducnost Podgorica
                11/23/16 10:33am Win 11/23/16 12:00pm International Basketball 1680 AEK Athens -820* vs KK Partizan Beograd NIS
                11/23/16 3:57pm Pending 11/23/16 4:00pm International Basketball 1621 Basic Fit Brussels +18 -675* vs SL Benfica
                11/23/16 6:08pm Pending 11/23/16 7:00pm College Basketball 732 Villanova -4500* vs College of Charleston
                Comment
                • Alex Hart
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-13-15
                  • 177

                  #9
                  Good job man, thanks for posting.
                  Comment
                  • SnakesPicks
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-05-13
                    • 685

                    #10
                    Wow, you mixed darts into the mix.
                    Comment
                    • Snowball
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 11-15-09
                      • 30054

                      #11
                      it's like fishing, mostly you pull up average catches, but it's nice to leave
                      a line in for the big ones too. for example, if the Patriots cover 4 for me
                      today, I'll be closing this one out at over 1000% with odds on remaining
                      entries over -1000...

                      Open
                      10 Team Parlay
                      Win 11/24/16 8:00pm College Basketball 532 Butler -380* vs Vanderbilt
                      11/24/16 8:21pm Win 11/24/16 8:30pm NFL Football 111 Pittsburgh Steelers -7 -160* vs Indianapolis Colts
                      11/24/16 8:21pm Pending 11/27/16 4:25pm NFL Football 273 New England Patriots -4 -240* vs New York Jets
                      11/25/16 11:08am Win 11/25/16 3:30pm College Football 137 Washington U -250* vs Washington State
                      11/26/16 11:53am Win 11/26/16 12:00pm College Basketball 516 Georgia Tech -320* vs Tulane
                      11/26/16 12:37pm Win 11/26/16 2:00pm Volleyball Other Sports 376 Montpellier UC -255* vs Paris Volley
                      11/26/16 1:19pm Win 11/26/16 3:30pm College Football 153 West Virginia -280* vs Iowa State
                      Comment
                      • Auto Donk
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 09-03-13
                        • 43558

                        #12
                        it's a good thing these plays last over a week, as it takes that long to read the f'n thread!

                        good work, snowy!
                        Comment
                        • capone1899
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-16-11
                          • 1054

                          #13
                          How much are you betting, winning? Must be a broke dick betting $5 since you just happen to leave out all the wage amounts
                          Comment
                          • Snowball
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 11-15-09
                            • 30054

                            #14
                            Originally posted by capone1899
                            How much are you betting, winning? Must be a broke dick betting $5 since you just happen to leave out all the wage amounts
                            I'm not here to show off, in case you weren't aware, this is the public internet and
                            there are difficulties in the U.S. The purpose of the Handicapper Think Tank is to
                            discuss strategy. Strategy applies the same at $5 as it does $5000. It's none of your
                            business how much money I have or what my winnings are. I am a long-term winner
                            in sports betting, I've been doing it since I was in high school in the 1980s.

                            You can be the type to post your full dollar amounts and ticket numbers and
                            brag if you ever win, I'm old enough not to need that kind of internet ego boost.
                            Comment
                            • SBRMAN23
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-07-11
                              • 6905

                              #15
                              Keep doing your thing snowball
                              Comment
                              • Snowball
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 11-15-09
                                • 30054

                                #16
                                completed the recent set last night.

                                new set includes some progressive teasers and progressive parlays
                                with multi-chance teasers.
                                Comment
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