Variance streaks

**Roscoe_Word** · 07-21-16, 04:19 PM

Not sure, but I think the odds are 9 to 1 of an average team winning or losing 5 in a row. (Should use ATS result as that theoretically makes each event 50/50.)

You're probably aware of the axiom: "Put a monkey at a typewriter long enough and he'll type a play of Shakespeare."

Not that it does much good, but I say this to myself during losing streaks(LOL). Good question...GL!

**omedo** · 07-21-16, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Roscoe_Word

Not sure, but I think the odds are 9 to 1 of an average team winning or losing 5 in a row. (Should use ATS result as that theoretically makes each event 50/50.)

You're probably aware of the axiom: "Put a monkey at a typewriter long enough and he'll type a play of Shakespeare."

Not that it does much good, but I say this to myself during losing streaks(LOL). Good question...GL!

I know what the odds are. And it could be an 50/50 match or other.
But my question is, when was the last time that YOU saw or identify such an event. Or an event similar.

GL2u2

**habitualwinning** · 07-21-16, 07:04 PM

What exactly do you quantify an unlucky loss as? Like if a team had 5 straight blown saves in baseball or something? Personally to me there's no such thing as luck in sports. Both teams are subject to the same conditions and the same amount of playing time. For instance a blown save isn't unlucky to me cause it's a team game and you can't expect a pitcher to be perfect. In other words if the team wanted to guarantee they won, they should've scored more runs so the closer didn't have such a small margin for error.

**statnerds** · 07-22-16, 05:58 AM

i believe the Cubs, MLBs best team for most of the first half of season lost 10 of 11 or something heading into ASB

please tell me this isn't the basis for yet another chase system

**omedo** · 07-22-16, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

i believe the Cubs, MLBs best team for most of the first half of season lost 10 of 11 or something heading into ASB

please tell me this isn't the basis for yet another chase system

No, its not a chasing system, just something to think about.

But about the Cubs, they didnt change anything?

**evo34** · 07-23-16, 01:35 AM

I lost 16 pass line bets in a row at Foxwoods in the late 90s. (49.3% chance of winning each time, for those who don't know craps). Everyone left the table except me. I kept rolling. I wanted to see how unlikely an event I could generate. 1 in 82,000 was the best I could do.

**evo34** · 07-23-16, 01:40 AM

The odds of a 5-game win/loss streak for a team expected to win 50% of the time are 3.1%. So not terribly uncommon.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 07-23-16, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by evo34

I lost 16 pass line bets in a row at Foxwoods in the late 90s.

Holy crap. Did you kick a kitten or something beforehand?

Think my worst run (hcaps/totals) was 12 or 13, a few years back. Had a 12 winning streak this year though. Of course, means nothing.

**KVB** · 07-23-16, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by evo34

I lost 16 pass line bets in a row at Foxwoods in the late 90s. (49.3% chance of winning each time, for those who don't know craps). Everyone left the table except me. I kept rolling. I wanted to see how unlikely an event I could generate. 1 in 82,000 was the best I could do.

They should have offered you some kind of bad beat jackpot after 12 or so losses in a row...lol.

Unreal evo.

**evo34** · 07-23-16, 09:45 PM

Luckily I was playing the min. ($5), as I was just out of college. The absurdity of it was worth $80 in retrospect.

**BetweenHerCheeks** · 07-24-16, 08:19 PM

5 in a row? Are you shitting me? Last football season I had a 1-14 and TWO 2-12 weekends!

**Foxx** · 07-24-16, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by habitualwinning

Personally to me there's no such thing as luck in sports.

Wow. That's quite a statement. Most sports are full of a random happenstance.

**habitualwinning** · 07-25-16, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by Foxx

Wow. That's quite a statement. Most sports are full of a random happenstance.

So what's lucky then, considering the playing field and amount of people on the field are equal? Is it unlucky when a striker shanks 2 A scoring chances off the post and his team loses by 1? Is it unlucky when in the NHL you're in a shootout and must score and your sniper comes down the ice, dekes the tender, gets him down and then shoots it right over the empty net? Is it unlucky when in football, your team is down 6 pts with 45 seconds left on the clock in the 4th quarter and you're on the drive at the 10 yrd line about to score and the RB fumbles on the 3 and the D recovers? The answer to all of those questions is no. None of them were unlucky. The striker should've put the shots on goal like he's capable of instead of the post. The hockey sniper should've put the shot in the net like he's capable of instead of airmailing it. The running back should've held the ball like he's capable of.

Unlucky would be some sort of outside influence aside from the players influencing the game in an unfair manner. So if you wanna say Bartman was unlucky for the Cubs in 2003, then I'll give you that but hitting posts in sports or having a blown save isn't unlucky, it's a professional not living up to his capabilities and performing adequately. People like to come up with excuses and theories as to why they lost a bet. To me it's all bullshit, just reaching for reasons as to why you should've won but didn't. That's why they play the games and why they play until the final second has ticked off the clock or the final out has been recorded. Suck it up like a man and just admit you picked the wrong side instead of stretching for a reason why you got screwed. Coulda, shoulda, woulda and every conspiracy theory and superstition inbetween.

**evo34** · 07-25-16, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by habitualwinning

So what's lucky then, considering the playing field and amount of people on the field are equal? Is it unlucky when a striker shanks 2 A scoring chances off the post and his team loses by 1? Is it unlucky when in the NHL you're in a shootout and must score and your sniper comes down the ice, dekes the tender, gets him down and then shoots it right over the empty net? Is it unlucky when in football, your team is down 6 pts with 45 seconds left on the clock in the 4th quarter and you're on the drive at the 10 yrd line about to score and the RB fumbles on the 3 and the D recovers? The answer to all of those questions is no. None of them were unlucky. The striker should've put the shots on goal like he's capable of instead of the post. The hockey sniper should've put the shot in the net like he's capable of instead of airmailing it. The running back should've held the ball like he's capable of.

Unlucky would be some sort of outside influence aside from the players influencing the game in an unfair manner. So if you wanna say Bartman was unlucky for the Cubs in 2003, then I'll give you that but hitting posts in sports or having a blown save isn't unlucky, it's a professional not living up to his capabilities and performing adequately. People like to come up with excuses and theories as to why they lost a bet. To me it's all bullshit, just reaching for reasons as to why you should've won but didn't. That's why they play the games and why they play until the final second has ticked off the clock or the final out has been recorded. Suck it up like a man and just admit you picked the wrong side instead of stretching for a reason why you got screwed. Coulda, shoulda, woulda and every conspiracy theory and superstition inbetween.

Get back on the meds. The guy simply said sports is full of events that are random, and you're inferring he is making excuses for his own losses? Really?

If you think a player should have intimate knowledge of the exact wind speed and air pressure 20 yards in front of him, that's your opinion (dude). Meanwhile, I'll continue to make money off luck-based events that people falsely attribute to skill.

**statnerds** · 07-26-16, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by habitualwinning

People like to come up with excuses and theories as to why they lost a bet. To me it's all bullshit, just reaching for reasons as to why you should've won but didn't...Suck it up like a man and just admit you picked the wrong side instead of stretching for a reason why you got screwed. Coulda, shoulda, woulda and every conspiracy theory and superstition inbetween.

so your suggestion, as dangerous as it may be, is that only -EV plays lose, or are you stating that even +EV plays are the 'wrong side'?

i've had countless streaks of 10 losses. personal best was 22 straight.

food for thought: if we gave everyone on the planet a quarter and started flipping, one of us would flip heads 5,500+ times in a row. luck does not exist, but randomness and math sure as shit do.

**habitualwinning** · 07-27-16, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by evo34

Get back on the meds. The guy simply said sports is full of events that are random, and you're inferring he is making excuses for his own losses? Really?

If you think a player should have intimate knowledge of the exact wind speed and air pressure 20 yards in front of him, that's your opinion (dude). Meanwhile, I'll continue to make money off luck-based events that people falsely attribute to skill.

Go lose 16 bets in a row playing a -EV casino game, idiot. You're not only dumb enough to play -EV casino games, but you're dull enough to let them take your money 16 straight bets and then you brag about it on a degen gambling forum like it's some badge of honour. Lol. We all know where you stand on the topic.

**habitualwinning** · 07-27-16, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

so your suggestion, as dangerous as it may be, is that only -EV plays lose, or are you stating that even +EV plays are the 'wrong side'?

i've had countless streaks of 10 losses. personal best was 22 straight.

food for thought: if we gave everyone on the planet a quarter and started flipping, one of us would flip heads 5,500+ times in a row. luck does not exist, but randomness and math sure as shit do.

Shit happens man. People fumble the ball, guys blow saves, snipers hit the post. No reason to sit around and sulk discussing how it was unlucky is all I'm saying. Life is random. People blow it all the time. If it happens, oh well on to the next one.