Working on a system based on a simple FX strategy, using moving averages. Anyone?

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  • TechnicalTrader
    SBR MVP
    • 05-09-16
    • 1434

    #1
    Working on a system based on a simple FX strategy, using moving averages. Anyone?
    Hello there,

    I've been trading FX since 2003 with a decent performance. I love the FX markets but am more amused by sports, primarily baseball. I've been playing around with the idea of using moving averages in order to predict when a team will "break out" of low scoring games. not just runs scored, but also runs allowed.

    Does anyone else in here have any experience with a similar system?

    The system is pretty simple and would or could use a simple/short martingale, but nothing that would kill your bankroll within a week.

    I've backtested it this season from April 20th on wards and have came up with the following results:

    Total bets placed: 19
    Total single bets won: 12
    Total series won: 19
    Series losses: 0

    Chased series: 7
    Double martingale used: 3
    Triple mart. used: 4

    Risk/Return Ratio: never less than 1/.9 in other words I don't take bets below -110.

    So as you can see, only once did I have to chase a "win" for more than two games. My largest chase would've been 4 games.

    Has anyone played around with a similar system or would like to help me develop / refine one?

    Thanks
  • Slanina
    SBR MVP
    • 01-21-09
    • 3827

    #2
    Martingale is the kiss of death for most systems. And backtesting two weeks isn't even worth reading the system. You need to do AT LEAST 5 years, 10 if you can get the lines. Then if it shows positive results, you're onto something. I made an NHL system that took me about 6 months to backtest 7 years. It's painstaking but the reward can be worth it.

    Good luck either way.
    Comment
    • Waterstpub87
      SBR MVP
      • 09-09-09
      • 4102

      #3
      I think it might be a little more complicated than just runs for and runs against.
      Comment
      • rkelly110
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 10-05-09
        • 39691

        #4
        You are using your head and developing your own system. Kudos.

        Thinking out of the box is how some have become great and successful. Good luck.
        Comment
        • TechnicalTrader
          SBR MVP
          • 05-09-16
          • 1434

          #5
          Thanks for the feedback. I am completely aware that intensive backtesting is needed. I did not post the numbers above with any sort of misleading intention or to claim that the system works. I was only interested in hearing from anyone who has attempted something similar or if something is out there already.

          As for using a martingale... I understand that using martingales can lead to huge losses but limiting the length of it and using proper money management could keep a system in the green for a while. In the sportstbetting market there is a limit to the amount of "support and resistance" within trends, nothing comparable to the FX market and using stop losses within the FX market is keen for that reason. Chasing a bet two or three times should not be an issue, I hope...

          Again, this system will be based on teams bats' slumping along with pitching staffs streaking and as we all know, all teams will eventually break out of their slump or the streak will come to an end. The reason why I would like to place bets on totals rather than outcomes is simply to hedge my loss. At the end of the day, if one team struggles to put up a total of (let's say) 8+ runs for an extended period, that means nothing more than them having a very good pitching staff and terrible bats. Eventually one of the two will give...

          With that said, my system is a bit more complicated than just adding totals and hoping for a breakout. I will be using multiple moving averages and am also thinking about adding an RSI filter to my analysis.

          As soon as the model is finished, I will post some screenshots of how I will approach a bet.

          Thanks again for the feedback!
          Comment
          • rkelly110
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 10-05-09
            • 39691

            #6
            I technically traded commodities for awhile studying moving averages and the like, lost my ass, but did learn about
            charting.

            I make daily/ monthly charts of my win/ losses. Just simple up and down slashes on a piece of paper.
            When I get a double top or a head and shoulders, I know when to lay off my bets. Double bottom, is when I
            pound my bets. I can see at a glance how I'm doing, when to lay off and when to go big.
            Comment
            • bozeman
              SBR MVP
              • 11-11-09
              • 2162

              #7
              Yeah martingale will kill u bro one day- if your bets win more than lose - why expose yourself to risk( there will be one day with martingale u hit a streak of 6-10 losses in a row for sure)
              Comment
              • TechnicalTrader
                SBR MVP
                • 05-09-16
                • 1434

                #8
                Originally posted by rkelly110
                I technically traded commodities for awhile studying moving averages and the like, lost my ass, but did learn about
                charting.

                I make daily/ monthly charts of my win/ losses. Just simple up and down slashes on a piece of paper.
                When I get a double top or a head and shoulders, I know when to lay off my bets. Double bottom, is when I
                pound my bets. I can see at a glance how I'm doing, when to lay off and when to go big.
                Very nice! Heads and shoulders,shooting stars, kangaroo tails, big shadow candles, etc is exactly how I trade FX. My charts are as naked as you can get them!

                I would, one day go in that exact direction. But for now I'd like to see how this works out.
                Comment
                • TechnicalTrader
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-09-16
                  • 1434

                  #9
                  Originally posted by bozeman
                  Yeah martingale will kill u bro one day- if your bets win more than lose - why expose yourself to risk( there will be one day with martingale u hit a streak of 6-10 losses in a row for sure)
                  I am tweaking the strat as I type this. I've dropped the idea of using a martingale and have decided to filter out a few variables. As of now (games 15 through yesterday) the system has triggered 82 signals, 46 of them have been profitable, all triggering a Over 8 1/2 line. I know this does not sound like a lot but if I can avg only 5% profit, constantly this system is gold. I'll keep you updated.

                  I also backtested 8 teams for the entire 2015 season and the results are right in line with what I am seeing in 2016. Let's see how these do tonight:

                  PIT/CIN
                  SD/CHC
                  ARZ/COL
                  OAK/BOS
                  BAL/MIN
                  DET/WSN
                  Comment
                  • a4u2fear
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-29-10
                    • 8147

                    #10
                    You need to check the results with different number of games in moving avg. i.e., what number of games calculated together most closely resembles the result in the next game. Arbitrarily picking this will be costly
                    Comment
                    • TechnicalTrader
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-09-16
                      • 1434

                      #11
                      Originally posted by a4u2fear
                      You need to check the results with different number of games in moving avg. i.e., what number of games calculated together most closely resembles the result in the next game. Arbitrarily picking this will be costly
                      I agree, but changing variables is pretty simple and not really time consuming. Trying to figure out if a simple MA or possible an EMA would work better will be a challenge. We will see. I'm pretty excited!
                      Comment
                      • TechnicalTrader
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-09-16
                        • 1434

                        #12
                        NPO numbers:

                        Bet: U7 1/2 runs
                        Timespan; YTD
                        Winners: 24
                        Losers: 14
                        ROI: ~7.6 units

                        Will backtest 2015 later this week, but the NPO league looks very nice!
                        Comment
                        • Broke Homey
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-04-16
                          • 1026

                          #13
                          Dont most losing black jack players use the martingale system?
                          Comment
                          • TechnicalTrader
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-09-16
                            • 1434

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Broke Homey
                            Dont most losing black jack players use the martingale system?
                            See post #9... Got rid of it.
                            Comment
                            • Broke Homey
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-04-16
                              • 1026

                              #15
                              Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                              I am tweaking the strat as I type this. I've dropped the idea of using a martingale and have decided to filter out a few variables. As of now (games 15 through yesterday) the system has triggered 82 signals, 46 of them have been profitable, all triggering a Over 8 1/2 line. I know this does not sound like a lot but if I can avg only 5% profit, constantly this system is gold. I'll keep you updated.

                              I also backtested 8 teams for the entire 2015 season and the results are right in line with what I am seeing in 2016. Let's see how these do tonight:

                              PIT/CIN
                              SD/CHC
                              ARZ/COL
                              OAK/BOS
                              BAL/MIN
                              DET/WSN
                              I did not see that post ty! I am very interested in following this.
                              Comment
                              • TechnicalTrader
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-09-16
                                • 1434

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Broke Homey
                                I did not see that post ty! I am very interested in following this.
                                No problem at all. Let's see how the next few weeks of games go. Here are my NPO picks:

                                (all under 7.5 runs)
                                Baystars/Dragons
                                Tigers/Giants
                                Eagles/Lions
                                Swallows/Carp
                                Comment
                                • Broke Homey
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-04-16
                                  • 1026

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                  No problem at all. Let's see how the next few weeks of games go. Here are my NPO picks:

                                  (all under 7.5 runs)
                                  Baystars/Dragons
                                  Tigers/Giants
                                  Eagles/Lions
                                  Swallows/Carp
                                  And the MLB games are all for +8.5 correct?
                                  Comment
                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-09-16
                                    • 1434

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Broke Homey
                                    And the MLB games are all for +8.5 correct?
                                    Correct, although I did take 7.5 on the CHC/SD game and was only able to get 10.5 on the COL game. Let's see how the picks go tonight...
                                    Comment
                                    • hostile takeover
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-06-09
                                      • 2258

                                      #19
                                      I've traded the forex for a decade. I've used MAs on my charts. I just don't see though how to bring this over to total runs per game in baseball.

                                      Depending on how you use your MAs (using as support/resistance to bounce or as a retracement if they get to far away from price), I think bball is different because a team basically is who they are as far as scoring runs for the season and vegas has that figured in.

                                      There's hot and cold streaks, but I don't know if they last long enough like price can in the forex market.

                                      I hope it works for you. Good luck.
                                      Comment
                                      • a4u2fear
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-29-10
                                        • 8147

                                        #20
                                        Check to see how unders your not playing are doing too, sometimes a side will be hitting more than another and if general market is beating unders your system likely won't long term
                                        Comment
                                        • TechnicalTrader
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-09-16
                                          • 1434

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                          I am tweaking the strat as I type this. I've dropped the idea of using a martingale and have decided to filter out a few variables. As of now (games 15 through yesterday) the system has triggered 82 signals, 46 of them have been profitable, all triggering a Over 8 1/2 line. I know this does not sound like a lot but if I can avg only 5% profit, constantly this system is gold. I'll keep you updated.

                                          I also backtested 8 teams for the entire 2015 season and the results are right in line with what I am seeing in 2016. Let's see how these do tonight:

                                          PIT/CIN
                                          SD/CHC
                                          ARZ/COL
                                          OAK/BOS
                                          BAL/MIN
                                          DET/WSN

                                          3 for 5, almost got the BAL/MIN game. Let's see how the NPO bets play out.
                                          Comment
                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-09-16
                                            • 1434

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by hostile takeover
                                            I've traded the forex for a decade. I've used MAs on my charts. I just don't see though how to bring this over to total runs per game in baseball.

                                            Depending on how you use your MAs (using as support/resistance to bounce or as a retracement if they get to far away from price), I think bball is different because a team basically is who they are as far as scoring runs for the season and vegas has that figured in.

                                            There's hot and cold streaks, but I don't know if they last long enough like price can in the forex market.

                                            I hope it works for you. Good luck.
                                            The system is quite simple; Locate a team which has a predefined fast MA trailing/lagging behind/in front of a predefined slow MA. What I'm basically trying to do is recognize a teams' run range and wait for them to underperform. Of course I'll keep in mind who is on the DL, etc. I am just looking for teams underperforming.

                                            So let's say for example the Cubs (games total) 15Day MA is 9.33 but their 3Day or 5Day MA is at 3.6, this would be a strong buy sign for me to take the over 8 1/2, if I can get anything lower, I'll take it!

                                            As you have most likely noticed, I'm doing the complete opposite in the NPO, where I am looking for overperforming teams and trying to catch an under game.
                                            Comment
                                            • TechnicalTrader
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-09-16
                                              • 1434

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                              Check to see how unders your not playing are doing too, sometimes a side will be hitting more than another and if general market is beating unders your system likely won't long term
                                              Sure, that will come at a later point of time. As of now, I need to find decent variables and set up a sheet where it can easily be adjusted in order to find the perfect numbers.
                                              Comment
                                              • TechnicalTrader
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-09-16
                                                • 1434

                                                #24
                                                MLB picks, 5/11

                                                Over 8 1/2
                                                CHC/SDP
                                                TEX/CWS
                                                COL/ARZ
                                                WAS/DET
                                                BOS/OAK (very strong signals here!)
                                                CIN/PIT
                                                LAA/STL
                                                Comment
                                                • TechnicalTrader
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-09-16
                                                  • 1434

                                                  #25
                                                  Looks like the NBP (don't know why I called it the NPO in the past, lol) bets have also passed the very first of many tests:

                                                  (Under 7.5)
                                                  Baystars/Dragons 2:0
                                                  Tigers/Giants 1:3
                                                  Eagles/Lions 7:2 in 6th inning (loss)
                                                  Swallows/Carp 5:2

                                                  Units risked: 4.00
                                                  Units won: 1.74

                                                  MLB:

                                                  Units risked: 5.00
                                                  Units won: 1.14
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Broke Homey
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-04-16
                                                    • 1026

                                                    #26
                                                    Good work yesterday! GL Today!

                                                    BH
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TechnicalTrader
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-09-16
                                                      • 1434

                                                      #27
                                                      CHC/SDP Win
                                                      TEX/CWS Win
                                                      COL/ARZ Win
                                                      WAS/DET Loss (but damn Scherzer, great game!)
                                                      BOS/OAK Win (I expected a high scoring game, didn't see this coming!)
                                                      CIN/PIT Win
                                                      LAA/STL Loss (by 1/2 run)

                                                      5:2 on the day. I'll stop posting picks and get back to refining the system. I am still looking for anyone who has attempted somthing like this or has heard of a similar system. Thanks
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Broke Homey
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-04-16
                                                        • 1026

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                        CHC/SDP Win
                                                        TEX/CWS Win
                                                        COL/ARZ Win
                                                        WAS/DET Loss (but damn Scherzer, great game!)
                                                        BOS/OAK Win (I expected a high scoring game, didn't see this coming!)
                                                        CIN/PIT Win
                                                        LAA/STL Loss (by 1/2 run)

                                                        5:2 on the day. I'll stop posting picks and get back to refining the system. I am still looking for anyone who has attempted somthing like this or has heard of a similar system. Thanks
                                                        I would like to see your MLB picks. I believe you may have something here, 5-2 day and you want to stop posting, Why? I use a platform i am making except i bet on wood. Approx. 70% of games over time have been won by 2+ runs, yesterday was a terrible example with 8 games decided by 1 run but you cant calculate shit happens as a variable. Keep posting brother!
                                                        BH
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TechnicalTrader
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-09-16
                                                          • 1434

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Broke Homey
                                                          I would like to see your MLB picks. I believe you may have something here, 5-2 day and you want to stop posting, Why? I use a platform i am making except i bet on wood. Approx. 70% of games over time have been won by 2+ runs, yesterday was a terrible example with 8 games decided by 1 run but you cant calculate shit happens as a variable. Keep posting brother!
                                                          BH
                                                          I'm not really trying to track bets online, I can track all bets without posting them here. The intention of this thread is to find someone who can help me develop the system.

                                                          These are the last few bets, including asian baseball where I went 4 for 6.

                                                          Marathonbet:
                                                          Click image for larger version

Name:	Mara.PNG
Views:	1
Size:	44.8 KB
ID:	29133859

                                                          Oddsportal:
                                                          Click image for larger version

Name:	oddsp.PNG
Views:	1
Size:	43.2 KB
ID:	29133860

                                                          I'll get myMLB picks up later, again I am not here to showcase pics...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-09-16
                                                            • 1434

                                                            #30
                                                            Here ya go:

                                                            (using newer system which also filters unders)
                                                            U8 1/2
                                                            PHI/ATL
                                                            SD/MIL
                                                            Risky bets:
                                                            DET/BAL
                                                            PIT/CHC

                                                            Over 8 1/2
                                                            No signals today

                                                            Not many games scheduled today. Good luck!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Broke Homey
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-04-16
                                                              • 1026

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                              Here ya go:

                                                              (using newer system which also filters unders)
                                                              U8 1/2
                                                              PHI/ATL
                                                              SD/MIL
                                                              Risky bets:
                                                              DET/BAL
                                                              PIT/CHC

                                                              Over 8 1/2
                                                              No signals today

                                                              Not many games scheduled today. Good luck!
                                                              Tou also TT!
                                                              ​BH
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TechnicalTrader
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-09-16
                                                                • 1434

                                                                #32
                                                                2 for 3 in Asia today. Here are today's picks:

                                                                Over 8 1/2 only:

                                                                HOU/BOS (premium play, very strong buy signal)
                                                                PIT/CHC
                                                                CWS/NYY
                                                                TOR/TEX
                                                                NYM/COL
                                                                STL/LAD
                                                                LAA/SEA

                                                                I'll post the under's later. Although, I might not have time for it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TechnicalTrader
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-09-16
                                                                  • 1434

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The only two under signals I am getting are from the TOR/TEX and the STL/LAD games. The over signals are much stronger, but you could scratch both games if you are looking to be cautious.

                                                                  Good luck and don't be pissed at me if this doesn't work. LOL
                                                                  Last edited by TechnicalTrader; 05-13-16, 03:21 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Broke Homey
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-04-16
                                                                    • 1026

                                                                    #34
                                                                    GL!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TechnicalTrader
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-09-16
                                                                      • 1434

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Asia:

                                                                      NBP:
                                                                      Hans/Yok, Under 6 1/2 (strong play)
                                                                      Hirosh/Chunich, Over 8 1/2

                                                                      KBO:
                                                                      Hanwa/Kia, Over 8 1/2 (waekest play)
                                                                      Doosan/Nexen, Over 9 1/2
                                                                      LG/SK, Over 10 1/2
                                                                      Sams/Lotte, Over 10.5 (strong play)
                                                                      NC/KT, Over 10.5

                                                                      I couldn't get the over I wanted but the overs have been working out well so I took them.
                                                                      Comment
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