MLB Stats on MoV of 1 Run

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  • netinfo
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-12-09
    • 955

    #1
    MLB Stats on MoV of 1 Run
    Hi,

    I'm looking for MLB stats that indicate the percentage of games that have a margin of victory of one run. If this was discussed in an earlier thread, please post here the link. If not, any help is appreciated.

    Thanks,

    netinfo
  • Pancho sanza
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-18-07
    • 386

    #2
    Originally posted by netinfo
    Hi,

    I'm looking for MLB stats that indicate the percentage of games that have a margin of victory of one run. If this was discussed in an earlier thread, please post here the link. If not, any help is appreciated.

    Thanks,

    netinfo
    It varies a lot as the ML/total changes.

    Be a little more specific and maybe I can help.

    If you want it for every moneyline/total combo from pk to say -300, were talking over 60,000 lines of data.
    Comment
    • netinfo
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-12-09
      • 955

      #3
      Pancho,

      I'm referring to only the scores, not the odds.

      For example:

      Yesterday, there were 12 games. 3 of those games were decided by one run. Therefore, the Margin of Victory of 1 run percentage for yesterday was 25%.

      I'm looking for such percentage data that goes back for a range of at least 5 years.

      netinfo
      Comment
      • Pancho sanza
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-18-07
        • 386

        #4
        Originally posted by netinfo
        pancho,

        i'm referring to only the scores, not the odds.

        For example:

        Yesterday, there were 12 games. 3 of those games were decided by one run. Therefore, the margin of victory of 1 run percentage for yesterday was 25%.

        I'm looking for such percentage data that goes back for a range of at least 5 years.

        Netinfo
        2008 28.0 %

        2007 27.9 %

        2006 27.8 %

        2005 29.6 %

        2004 26.3 %


        2004-2008 27.8 %


        Comment
        • netinfo
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-12-09
          • 955

          #5
          2008 28.0 %

          2007 27.9 %

          2006 27.8 %

          2005 29.6 %

          2004 26.3 %


          2004-2008 27.8 %
          Awesome, thanks!

          netinfo
          Comment
          • hhsilver
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 06-07-07
            • 7375

            #6
            pancho,

            that was quick. Can you do it for HOME FAVs of -120 to -190 ? what % of such home favs won by 1 run ?

            thanks
            Comment
            • Pancho sanza
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-18-07
              • 386

              #7
              Originally posted by hhsilver
              pancho,

              that was quick. Can you do it for HOME FAVs of -120 to -190 ? what % of such home favs won by 1 run ?

              thanks
              Still need to update my database for years 2007-2008, missing a bunch of lines.

              heres 2001 - 2006, a 6 year run which should give you an idea.

              Home Favs -120 - 190 6459

              Games won by home team 3723

              Games won by home team by 1 run 1114
              Comment
              • hhsilver
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-07-07
                • 7375

                #8
                thank you -- appreciate it
                Comment
                • Unitage
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 02-24-09
                  • 218

                  #9
                  great stuff pancho, could you please run these if you have time.
                  home teams from +100 to -110 lines.
                  and home dogs from +100 to +130
                  Thank you.
                  Comment
                  • Pancho sanza
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-18-07
                    • 386

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Unitage
                    great stuff pancho, could you please run these if you have time.
                    home teams from +100 to -110 lines.
                    and home dogs from +100 to +130
                    Thank you.
                    From 2001 -2006


                    +100 -110

                    Games 1027
                    W 517
                    W by 1 run 176

                    +100 +130

                    Games 2516
                    W 1170
                    W by 1 run 395
                    Comment
                    • Justin7
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-31-06
                      • 8577

                      #11
                      The bigger the favorite, the more likely that team is to win by exactly 1 run.

                      It's kind of counterintuitive.
                      Comment
                      • Pancho sanza
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 10-18-07
                        • 386

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Justin7
                        The bigger the favorite, the more likely that team is to win by exactly 1 run.

                        It's kind of counterintuitive.
                        Justin, you meant overall I assume?

                        As a % of total wins, it actually goes down' eg, -250 favs wins 25 % of its games by 1 run, -300 wins 24 % of its games by 1 run etc.
                        Comment
                        • netinfo
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 02-12-09
                          • 955

                          #13
                          Pancho,

                          I have another request. Say you have the following scenario:

                          ............... RL......................ML
                          Team A..... +1.5 (-odds)........(+odds)
                          Team B..... -1.5 (+odds)....... (-odds)

                          What percentage of games does Team B win by one run?

                          netinfo
                          Comment
                          • Pancho sanza
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-18-07
                            • 386

                            #14
                            Originally posted by netinfo
                            Pancho,

                            I have another request. Say you have the following scenario:

                            ............... RL......................ML
                            Team A..... +1.5 (-odds)........(+odds)
                            Team B..... -1.5 (+odds)....... (-odds)

                            What percentage of games does Team B win by one run?

                            netinfo
                            If I understand your question correctly, you want to know how often a favorite (on the ml) with + odds on the rl wins exactly by 1 run?

                            I dont have a run line database so can't help there.
                            Comment
                            • netinfo
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-12-09
                              • 955

                              #15
                              If I understand your question correctly, you want to know how often a favorite (on the ml) with + odds on the rl wins exactly by 1 run?
                              Yes.

                              I dont have a run line database so can't help there.
                              No problem, thanks for your contribution.

                              Take care,

                              netinfo
                              Comment
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