Consitency of line movement patterns from season to season?

**dwaechte** · 03-12-09, 06:38 PM

Depends what your indicators are based on. We'd need more details to be sure, but I think in general that should be a safe assumption.

**Wayfarer** · 03-12-09, 06:44 PM

I'm not to eager on giving details (for obvious reasons). I think I may just bite the bullet and go over the numbers for the 2007 season and see what I get.

**Wrecktangle** · 03-12-09, 09:45 PM

No line trend in any sport will "last forever," but you may get another season or even two out of it...the sport changes and the public changes which in turns pushes the line to change.

**Data** · 03-12-09, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by Wayfarer

If I have found indicators that allow me to predict the future direction of line movement in the MLB for the 2008 season with statistical significance can I safely assume the same indicators will be valid for the 2009 season?

Did you uncover those indicators by analyzing line movements in 2008?

**Wayfarer** · 03-12-09, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Data

Did you uncover those indicators by analyzing line movements in 2008?

Sort of.... modified version of what I do for the NHL.
I'm assuming you are aluding to the fact that in order to check the validity I must test it against a set of data from which the model was not derived? 2007 numbers here I come.....

**Data** · 03-12-09, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Wayfarer

I'm assuming you are aluding to the fact that in order to check the validity I must test it against a set of data from which the model was not derived? 2007 numbers here I come.....

You got it!

**cobra_king** · 03-13-09, 01:45 AM

Personally, i'd not only go over the 2007 season but also the 2006 season.

**Arilou** · 03-13-09, 11:12 AM

Make sure to check out of sample, but be careful even if you pass that test. There are things that change from season to season in terms of the market dynamics.