Basketball Data

[netinfo]

Hi,

A question for those in statistics/programming who may be able to assist:

Is there data available online, for at least the past 5 years, that includes the most common point difference in a game score? Let me know if you are aware of the availability of such data.

Basically, what I'm looking for is this: If you look at the multitude of games over a few years, what is the most common point difference in the scores? Is it 3 points, 5 points, 8 points, or whichever? That's what I'm looking for.

Thanks,

netinfo

[Dark Horse]

4 pts.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/20924-estimated-nba-ats-over-under-push-frequencies.html

[Data]

It is undistinguishable between 5, 6 and 7. The number in the middle (6) is likely to be the true maximum.

[Dark Horse]

6 sounds more realistic than 4. lol

[Justin7]

Are you looking at spread push rates, or net margin of victory rates?

[netinfo]

Thanks for the replies. I'll be checking the link in the post of Dark Horse.

Are you looking at spread push rates, or net margin of victory rates?

I'm looking for the actual game scores, and not necessarily the odds that were placed on them.

For example, let's say that the Lakers win over the Blazers by 5 points. Let's also say that the Lakers were favorites at -1 and Blazers as dogs at +1. I'm looking for the former data, the occurrences of 5 points differences, in comparision with the occurances of other point differences, in order to obtain the most common point difference. I'm not necessarily looking at the latter data, the -1/+1 odds in relation to this game and the odds in all other games.

In other words, my main concern in this thread is scores, rather than odds.

netinfo

[netinfo]

I looked at the link, and it is showing data that includes both scores and odds. Is there a similar calculation that includes only the scores?

It is undistinguishable between 5, 6 and 7. The number in the middle (6) is likely to be the true maximum.

Mr. Data,

How did you arrive at your answer? Also, are you calculating only the scores, or the scores and their odds?

netinfo

[Data]

Mr. Data,

How did you arrive at your answer?

I used my NBA spreadsheet that contains data starting with 2002-03 season.

Also, are you calculating only the scores, or the scores and their odds?

netinfo

I counted the numbers of games per MOV (margin of victory) regardless of the lines.

[netinfo]

It looks like MOV is what I was looking for. In the Ganchrow MOV Frequency calculation in the link, the 5 point MOV occurred 6.327% of the time, and so as far as I can understand, 5 points is then the most common point difference between the 91/92 to 06/07 seasons.

Using more recent data, since 02/03 season, Data pointed out that it is undistinguishable between the 5, 6, and 7 points, with 6 as likely being the maximum.

I guess then the answer to my original question is 5 or 6 points.

Thanks,

netinfo