[Juret]

If I have expected means for Player X to take y shots and score z points (goals + assists) in an NHL game,

would the expected Prop score simply be "y + z" or is there another dimension to this that I am overlooking? in order to score a goal, the player obviously has to take a shot but this would not be necessary in the case of an assist. if I use a player's historical stats as a base for my estimation, goals are counted as both a goal and a shot (maybe this is not the case for own goals credited to this player but this would be minimal). so, it looks to me it is simply "y + z".

thanks, as always

[RickySteve]

Are you asking if goals are uncorrelated to shots and then answering yourself in the same post?