Betting ML and hedging with RL = successful?

**onearmedlove** · 10-03-11, 04:59 PM

Do you think a bookie would deal lines that would allow his players to mechanically beat him out of his money?

**whatagoal1** · 10-03-11, 05:16 PM

"laying a team to lose"

Most people back a team to win, the opposite to what I think you are trying to explain.

"laying a team to lose " is actually the same as above.

either change "laying" to "backing", or change "lose" to "win", but not both

**Pancho sanza** · 10-03-11, 05:55 PM

You're doing it the wrong way.

**Pew Pew** · 10-03-11, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by whatagoal1

"laying a team to lose" Most people back a team to win, the opposite to what I think you are trying to explain. "laying a team to lose " is actually the same as above. either change "laying" to "backing", or change "lose" to "win", but not both

Ok bro, laying a particular team. Happy now??? Didn't have time to correct my SBR grammar/terminology.

@onearmedlove, wow your first EVEEEER post on here and it's in my thread. I feel so special

@Pancho, please bro, tell me how it's done sonnnn

**LT Profits** · 10-03-11, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

You're doing it the wrong way.

He is talking about the "Polish Middle", but games with short odds with a low total like tonight are more likely to be decided by one run, so this is not the type of game to attempt this.

**antifoil** · 10-03-11, 06:43 PM

you would need to know the percentage chance the rays win by 1, the rays win by more than 1, and the ranger win outright to determine if it is successful.

**LT Profits** · 10-03-11, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by antifoil

you would need to know the percentage chance the rays win by 1, the rays win by more than 1, and the ranger win outright to determine if it is successful.

Right, but I find it hard to believe that this could be +EV in a game with a total of 7.5

**BettingWizard** · 10-03-11, 07:12 PM

27% of games end in one run. Impossible to win this way

**LT Profits** · 10-03-11, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

27% of games end in one run. Impossible to win this way

Right, but this could work in certain situations with games with double-digit totals. I miss the pre-humidor days in Colorado.

**ebbearsfb1** · 10-03-11, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Right, but this could work in certain situations with games with double-digit totals. I miss the pre-humidor days in Colorado.

this right here

**podonne** · 10-04-11, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by Pew Pew

For example:
Tonight's game I will be betting:
Rangers ML (+107) $93.46 to win $100
Rays RL (+177) $52.80 to win $93.46

Only way I would lose money is if Ray wins by 1.

I usually do this in soccer when I'm laying the draw or laying a team to lose and so far I haven't loss $$$ doing this. But I just want to know, should I stop doing this or is this a sustainable betting method (for soccer and baseball).

I'm pretty sure this is muggish type of betting but just wanted to know.

Interesting thought. Offhand I would guess that the difference between the ML and RL is small enough to prevent this from being profitable, kind of like playing both sides of a soccer match and having the draw kill you.

I ran a quick simulation, assuming these probabilities (I got the 13.5% from BettingWizard, if all games have a 1 run differential 27% of the time, just one of those teams has it half that, 13.5%):

ML win: 43.25%
RL win: 43.25%
Rays by 1: 13.5%

Given your inputs above of amount bet and odds, I'd estimate that you have about ~ +$0.64 ev on the games. So, a somewhat +ev situation in the game you are betting on. But again, I'm guessing you got those lines at two different books, so its more of an arb play?

Taking a quick look at Matchbook for MIL\AZ tommorrow I see +106/+146 to make your play, and that's a negative EV situation (worse than -$6).

**LT Profits** · 10-04-11, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by podonne

Interesting thought. Offhand I would guess that the difference between the ML and RL is small enough to prevent this from being profitable, kind of like playing both sides of a soccer match and having the draw kill you.

I ran a quick simulation, assuming these probabilities (I got the 13.5% from BettingWizard, if all games have a 1 run differential 27% of the time, just one of those teams has it half that, 13.5%):

ML win: 43.25%
RL win: 43.25%
Rays by 1: 13.5%

Given your inputs above of amount bet and odds, I'd estimate that you have about ~ +$0.64 ev on the games. So, a somewhat +ev situation in the game you are betting on. But again, I'm guessing you got those lines at two different books, so its more of an arb play?

Taking a quick look at Matchbook for MIL\AZ tommorrow I see +106/+146 to make your play, and that's a negative EV situation (worse than -$6).

Yes but percentage of one-run games goes down as totals go up, especially with bigger favorites. This was a bad game to do this with (even though the OP lived to tell about it) because there was a small favorite and a low total.

**jds07v** · 10-04-11, 11:19 AM

What about simulataneously betting props like this: (I personally played this last night)

Rangers Win by exactly 1 run: +618
Rays Win by exactly 1 run: +394

Yankees win by exactly 1 run: +584
Tigers win by exactly 1 run: +388

In playoff baseball, with low totals, this could be worth a look..?

If one of the four teams wins by 1 run, you are up $ on the night. On a night like last night, it was a nice cash, since both games were decided by 1 run

**Bsims** · 10-04-11, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

27% of games end in one run. Impossible to win this way

Yes, about 27% of the games end with a 1 run difference. But in this case he is only interested in the home team winning by 1 run which drops the percentage to about 18% (visit win by 1 run 9% of the time).

I tried this in both 2009 and 2010 and came close to breaking even. In 2009 I bet 340 games and had a return of $0.997 per dollar bet. In these games, the 1 run percentages were right on 18% and 9%.

In 2010, the return was again $0.997 in the 440 games I bet. The percentages were 18% and 10%.

I did not bother with it in 2011.

**podonne** · 10-04-11, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Bsims

Yes, about 27% of the games end with a 1 run difference. But in this case he is only interested in the home team winning by 1 run which drops the percentage to about 18% (visit win by 1 run 9% of the time).

I tried this in both 2009 and 2010 and came close to breaking even. In 2009 I bet 340 games and had a return of $0.997 per dollar bet. In these games, the 1 run percentages were right on 18% and 9%.

In 2010, the return was again $0.997 in the 440 games I bet. The percentages were 18% and 10%.

I did not bother with it in 2011.

If that's true then my 13.5% was overly generous in the above example. But 9% is better, so maybe if you restricted plays to where the visitor-win-by-1 was the killer?

And that still leaves this as a potential arb strategy if you had enough books... I don't like arb strategies as a rule, since I'd rather arb an already profitablt strategy, but I recognize that arb strategies do work in the few times when the odds are right.

**wrongturn** · 10-04-11, 01:54 PM

Post season games could have more 1 run win games than regular season? I don't know. But for home team win-1 rate 18%, the fair price is +455. For away team win-1 rate 10%, the fair price is +900.

**Pew Pew** · 10-04-11, 02:41 PM

Thanks everyone for their inputs

@LT I'll take your advice next baseball season

@podonne/Bsims thanks for doing the calculation #s

I still have lots of learning to do @_@

**podonne** · 10-04-11, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Pew Pew

Thanks everyone for their inputs

@LT I'll take your advice next baseball season

@podonne/Bsims thanks for doing the calculation #s

I still have lots of learning to do @_@

PewPew, just out of curiosity, were those lines (+107, +177) at different books?

**PatrickBateman** · 10-05-11, 01:16 PM

How can you use this in soccer?

**CHUBNUT** · 10-05-11, 01:42 PM

Nearly all of us have fallen for this old chestnut sometime in our betting career, sadly its a road that leads to nowhere. Still, feel good about yourself that you are putting some thought into your betting. Best of luck for the future.

**Pew Pew** · 10-05-11, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by podonne

PewPew, just out of curiosity, were those lines (+107, +177) at different books?

Nope they were from the same book @ 5dimes. The RL is from the reduced juice MLB lines, while the ML was normal MLB lines.

@bateman For example on today's game
Empoli +404
Livorno -107
Draw +223

I'm going to lay Empoli. I would bet this way:
Bet $107 on Livorno to win $100
Bet $47.98 on the Draw to win $107

If Livorno wins, I net $52.02. If draw, I win and lose nothing. If Empoli, I lose $107 and $47.98. This is basically as if you're betting Livorno @ PK instead of -0.5

@Chubs thanks good luck to you too

**PatrickBateman** · 10-05-11, 02:14 PM

Yes but does this work, it is like you are laying around -200 no? Is this not just taking the PK were it offered?

**PatrickBateman** · 10-05-11, 02:17 PM

I did something soimilar to this in baseball using the RL and ALternative RL for the past few years and it always makes money but not all that much. I also did a lot of this sort of thing the last world cup and made about $800. First time I was betting soccer so I played for what I had available to lose. It worked well but wasn't sure if maybe I just got lucky and it was a long term loser so I have yet to play regualr soccer games.

Thanks for the thoughts though

**darko3131** · 10-05-11, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by jds07v

What about simulataneously betting props like this: (I personally played this last night)

Rangers Win by exactly 1 run: +618
Rays Win by exactly 1 run: +394

Yankees win by exactly 1 run: +584
Tigers win by exactly 1 run: +388

In playoff baseball, with low totals, this could be worth a look..?

If one of the four teams wins by 1 run, you are up $ on the night. On a night like last night, it was a nice cash, since both games were decided by 1 run

Wouldn't touch the road team winning by 1 with a 10 ft pole.

**ebbearsfb1** · 10-05-11, 02:39 PM

Exactly by one run may work with giants padres games... only 30% of games end in 1 run.. good discussion in here

**PatrickBateman** · 10-05-11, 04:28 PM

It just seems logical that a game set at o/u 7 is going to have a higher occurence of one run games than a game set at o/u 10.5.

**podonne** · 10-05-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by PatrickBateman

I did something soimilar to this in baseball using the RL and ALternative RL for the past few years and it always makes money but not all that much. I also did a lot of this sort of thing the last world cup and made about $800. First time I was betting soccer so I played for what I had available to lose. It worked well but wasn't sure if maybe I just got lucky and it was a long term loser so I have yet to play regualr soccer games.

Thanks for the thoughts though

Just out of curiousity, when you say it made "not much at all", do you mean that you made a lot of bets but it was only slightly +ev, or that there were very few opportinities, but each opportunity was decently +ev?

**DEP78** · 10-05-11, 08:12 PM

Thanks Pew for this post. I've been thinking about the same thing for a while, but I haven't done enough study with correlation between what you stated originally and the game's total. Makes damn good sense. Thank you everybody who contributed. Another learning experience.

**PatrickBateman** · 10-05-11, 11:08 PM

podonne,

What was meant is that there are not a ton of plays and you are making between .5-1 unit at a time. A loss drops you back 2 units. So basically it averages around +10 units the last three years. Not sure if that answers your question, if not I will try to elaborate further.

**jds07v** · 10-06-11, 10:56 AM

i havent bet the win by exactly 1 run for every game. I didnt for the burnett/porcello matchup, the oswalt/jackson game, or any of the dback/brewer series. The road team prop has cashed 3x for me so far this playoffs.

With aces or #2 pitchers with low totals, it seems to work in this extremely small sample size.

**statictheory** · 10-06-11, 04:00 PM

I havent looked at it closely, but with the prop bets available also , then seems some sort of scalp could be possible by using those three bets since you have payouts on the 1 at 455 and above. Am i wrong here?

**podonne** · 10-06-11, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by PatrickBateman

podonne,

What was meant is that there are not a ton of plays and you are making between .5-1 unit at a time. A loss drops you back 2 units. So basically it averages around +10 units the last three years. Not sure if that answers your question, if not I will try to elaborate further.

Is "not a ton" like 5 plays over 3 years, or like 100 plays over 3 years?
What was your win rate? (games_bet - 1-run-finishes) / games_bet

Thanks for explaining. A high win rate but few plays makes this a good candidate for an automated process, hence my interest.

**podonne** · 10-06-11, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by jds07v

What about simulataneously betting props like this: (I personally played this last night)

Rangers Win by exactly 1 run: +618
Rays Win by exactly 1 run: +394

Yankees win by exactly 1 run: +584
Tigers win by exactly 1 run: +388

In playoff baseball, with low totals, this could be worth a look..?

If one of the four teams wins by 1 run, you are up $ on the night. On a night like last night, it was a nice cash, since both games were decided by 1 run

jds07v: What book did you find win-by-1 props? Do they have them for Hockey too?

**PatrickBateman** · 10-06-11, 11:23 PM

podonne,

This past year there were less plays than the previous two years because the o/u were lower for some reason from what I could tell. This year there was about 20-25 plays, previous years closer to 30-35. However losing 5 either year is considered a lot. Don't have my exact figures in front of me but when I am able I will post them for you.