1st Half Yards Per Play Trend Today

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  • andybord
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-24-07
    • 170

    #1
    1st Half Yards Per Play Trend Today
    Posting this will likely kill this trend, but so far today, The team leading in offensive yards per play in the 1st half is 5-1 Against the 2nd half spread for the lines that my book offers. They only offer select 2nd half lines, so not sure how the trend looks if it's expanded.

    The specific games results so far are:
    Northwestern PK Win
    Louisville -10 Win
    Wake +14 Win
    Minn +6 Win
    Hou +4.5 Win
    Ia St +6 Loss
  • andybord
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-24-07
    • 170

    #2
    Navy +2.5 is about to cash on this as well.

    That's the only active one on this trend right now.

    I'll post the 2:30 Picks as they happen now.
    Comment
    • andybord
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-24-07
      • 170

      #3
      Duke (5.28 YPP) vs. V Tech (4.07 YPP) - PICK is Duke +7
      Mich St (5.16 YPP) vs. Illini (3.79 YPP) - PICK is Mich St -3

      Trend is 6-1 so far today
      Comment
      • andybord
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-24-07
        • 170

        #4
        Clemson (5.44 YPP) vs. Maryland (7.29 YPP) - PICK is Maryland +8
        Tenn (5.56 YPP) vs. Bama (7.89 YPP) - PICK is Bama -11
        Comment
        • andybord
          SBR High Roller
          • 11-24-07
          • 170

          #5
          NC State (2.3 YPP) vs. Fla St (9.28 YPP) - PICK is Fla St -14
          West Va (5.67 YPP) vs. K State (5.68 YPP) - PICK is K State -7
          Comment
          • andybord
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-24-07
            • 170

            #6
            Tex tech (4.38 YPP) vs. Oklahoma (7.24 YPP) - PICK is Oklahoma -3
            Comment
            • andybord
              SBR High Roller
              • 11-24-07
              • 170

              #7
              Notre Dame (7.47 YPP) vs. Air Force (5.18 YPP) - PICK is Notre Dame -7.5
              Comment
              • andybord
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-24-07
                • 170

                #8
                Northwestern PK Win
                Louisville -10 Win
                Wake +14 Win
                Minn +6 Win
                Hou +4.5 Win
                Ia St +6 Loss
                Navy +2.5 Win
                Duke +7 Win
                Mich St -3 Win
                Maryland +8 Win
                Bama -11 Loss
                Fla St -14 Loss
                K St -7 Win
                Oklahoma -3 Pending
                Notre Dame -7.5 Pending

                10-3 So far with 2 Pending
                Comment
                • killawookie
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-25-09
                  • 3457

                  #9
                  I'm always tracking these kind of "off the beaten path" trends.. very nice find.. hope you played these!

                  Edit: Where do you get your YPP stats from?
                  Comment
                  • andybord
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-24-07
                    • 170

                    #10
                    Thanks, I have played these luckily.

                    I've been calculating the YPP stats manually today. I just pulled past data from CFBstats.com (http://www.cfbstats.com/blog/college-football-data/) and I'm going to see if this thing holds water, or if it's just a fluke for this week.
                    Comment
                    • easyliving
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-25-12
                      • 8876

                      #11
                      wish I had seen this earlier. went 1-4 betting halves
                      Comment
                      • andybord
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 11-24-07
                        • 170

                        #12
                        I wish I had seen this a month ago. I've had an awful year betting halves.

                        We're at 11-4 with Oklahoma's loss and Notre Dame's (assumed) win. There will be 7 more coming tonight.
                        Comment
                        • andybord
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-24-07
                          • 170

                          #13
                          UCLA (4.82 YPP) vs. Oregon (7.27 YPP) - PICK is Oregon -11
                          Comment
                          • andybord
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 11-24-07
                            • 170

                            #14
                            So Car (5.77 YPP) vs. Mizzou (7.91 YPP) - PICK is Mizzou PK
                            Comment
                            • andybord
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-24-07
                              • 170

                              #15
                              Baylor (9.53 YPP) vs. Kansas (2.28 YPP) - PICK is Baylor -13 (CAVEAT here....2 of the 4 losses today were when Bama and Florida State were up huge at the half. These were the only 2 games where the margin was bigger than 2 TDs. I'm including it here, but beware)

                              Comment
                              • easyliving
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 06-25-12
                                • 8876

                                #16
                                Originally posted by andybord
                                Baylor (9.53 YPP) vs. Kansas (2.28 YPP) - PICK is Baylor -13 (CAVEAT here....2 of the 4 losses today were when Bama and Florida State were up huge at the half. These were the only 2 games where the margin was bigger than 2 TDs. I'm including it here, but beware)

                                skipping this one
                                Comment
                                • andybord
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-24-07
                                  • 170

                                  #17
                                  North Tex (7.82 YPP) vs. So Miss (4.97 YPP) - PICK is North Tex -6.5 (SEE Caveat posted with Baylor pick above)
                                  Comment
                                  • easyliving
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-25-12
                                    • 8876

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by andybord
                                    North Tex (7.82 YPP) vs. So Miss (4.97 YPP) - PICK is North Tex -6.5 (SEE Caveat posted with Baylor pick above)
                                    rolling with the over 25 here
                                    Comment
                                    • killawookie
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-25-09
                                      • 3457

                                      #19
                                      I think any line over -10 is gonna be a loss in these blow out games.. not worth the risk of backup QBs coming in and running clock out.

                                      So. Miss isn't gonna get blown out like this either (I mean they suck regardless).. I have a feeling that one's a trap too. Maybe this works only is a parameter of being a close game?
                                      Last edited by killawookie; 10-26-13, 08:16 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • andybord
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-24-07
                                        • 170

                                        #20
                                        Fla Atl (5.09 YPP) vs. Auburn (10.00 YPP) - PICK is Auburn -9 (SEE Caveat posted with Baylor pick above)
                                        Comment
                                        • andybord
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-24-07
                                          • 170

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by killawookie
                                          I think any line over -10 is gonna be a loss in these blow out games.. not worth the risk of backup QBs coming in and running clock out.

                                          So. Miss isn't gonna get blown out like this either (I mean they suck regardless).. I have a feeling that one's a trap too. Maybe this works only is a parameter of being a close game?
                                          Agreed. The highest win on this today was a halftime lead of 14
                                          Comment
                                          • andybord
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-24-07
                                            • 170

                                            #22
                                            Penn St (3.85 YPP) vs. Ohio St (9.63 YPP) - PICK is Ohio St -7 (SEE Caveat posted with Baylor pick above)

                                            Trend is 11-4 overall so far....11-2 when the halftime margin is 14 or less.

                                            There will be 4 more games posted today.
                                            Comment
                                            • andybord
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 11-24-07
                                              • 170

                                              #23
                                              11-4 before the evening games:
                                              Oregon -11 Win
                                              Mizzou PK Loss
                                              Baylor -13 Loss
                                              North Tex -6.5 Win
                                              Auburn -9 Loss
                                              Ohio St -7 Pending

                                              13-7 with 1 pending:

                                              When removing the games that were more than 14 pt margins at the half (Fla st, Bama, North tex, Baylor, Auburn) , Record is 12-3

                                              4 more picks tonight assuming Texas/TCU gets going again. Otherwise 3.
                                              Comment
                                              • andybord
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-24-07
                                                • 170

                                                #24
                                                Stanford (5.59 YPP) vs. Ore St (2.72 YPP) - PICK is Stanford -0.5
                                                Comment
                                                • andybord
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 11-24-07
                                                  • 170

                                                  #25
                                                  Texas (6.33 YPP) vs. TCU (4.69 YPP) - PICK is Texas +4
                                                  Comment
                                                  • andybord
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 11-24-07
                                                    • 170

                                                    #26
                                                    Fresno St (2.78 YPP) vs. SD St (5.68 YPP) - PICK is San Diego St +3.5
                                                    Comment
                                                    • andybord
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 11-24-07
                                                      • 170

                                                      #27
                                                      Cal (4.28 YPP) vs. Washington (8.88 YPP) - PICK is Wash -13.5. CAVEAT: This one falls into the over 14 pt halftime margin, which is 2-4.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bobbydrake
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 02-16-09
                                                        • 38

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by andybord
                                                        Fresno St (2.78 YPP) vs. SD St (5.68 YPP) - PICK is San Diego St +3.5
                                                        Does 2nd half bets include overtime?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • andybord
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-24-07
                                                          • 170

                                                          #29
                                                          Final Record: 16-9, 14-4 when excluding margins larger than 14 pts at halftime.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • andybord
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-24-07
                                                            • 170

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by bobbydrake
                                                            Does 2nd half bets include overtime?
                                                            Yes, they do
                                                            Comment
                                                            • easyliving
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 06-25-12
                                                              • 8876

                                                              #31
                                                              did you track these this week?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jayvegas420
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 03-09-11
                                                                • 28213

                                                                #32
                                                                Hope he starts tracking on the 21st!
                                                                Comment
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