I know this may be a stretch, but say team A is getting + points for the second half. They are also getting the ball first. Is there any correlation that the team that gets the ball first with +points wins 2nd halves more often? Maybe over a certain % of points given? Like 10+ pts., they get the ball first, score and now they are at +12. Maybe first possession is already factored into the line?
-
Originally posted by SBR_John -
Football, yes.
basketball, doesn't other team get ball in 4th q?bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
I think football ball 1st is factored into the line.
What do you think Reno? I would be curious as to other opinions.Comment -
It definitely should be factored in every drive has to be worth a couple points.
Now what might be overlooked is something like team to win 1st half is less likely to win 2nd because of this.
I mean this is something to be aware of, But yeah, you can't simply assume the books would have same line regardless of who's receiving.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Sorry for the late response as I just saw the reply's. Here is what I came up with for an answer to your question.
Assume Team A is getting points for the second half, and also receiving to start the second half:
I will also assume you would have to take a database from the past 10 years? So here it is.
+1 pts. has won X% of the time
+2 pts. has won X% of the time
+3 pts. has won X% of the time
+4 pts. has won X% of the time
+5 pts.has won X% of the time
+6 pts.has won X% of the time
+7 pts.has won X% of the time
+8 pts.has won X% of the time
+9 pts.has won X% of the time
+10 pts.has won X% of the time
+11 pts.has won X% of the time
....
Would this be correct Justin?Originally posted by SBR_JohnComment -
you might be spreading your database too thin. Consider how many more points the team receiving scores regardless of spread.(since on average this would even out), then view the avg lines set for receiving teams. That should give you an idea if books undervalue first possession.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
I don't think there is a correlation between dogs and ball 1st in the 2nd H but obviously the ball 1st is worth something in CBB. I would think whether fav or dog, the ball 1st is worth the same and I think it is being factored into the market more and more efficiently as more and more dataheads come aboard.Comment -
Starting out a quarter with the ball is worth half a possession (either a full possession if the same team has the ball last, or no edge if the other team has the last possession). I wonder if some teams have better clock management than others for the final minute of a quarter (it could be worth two possessions per game), but seeing how many two-for-one opportunities teams pass up on, I doubt that it is a serious consideration. Based on NBA shooting percentages, I would guestimate the value of half a possession to be around 0.4 pts, and almost certainly less than half a point. Preferably a 1Q or 3Q bettor would have a bigger edge.
I would be interested in a stat that showed how many extra possessions each team in the league can give up and still cover the spread or win the game. Something a little more dynamic than just the number of turnovers.Last edited by Dark Horse; 02-19-09, 06:02 AM.Comment -
I noticed that the Spurs were going for the two for one consistently in the final minute of each quarter in their win over Detroit. To the point of Mason hurrying his shot, so they could get another possession. Typical Pop.Comment
