Why +/- EV is BULL

[TPowell]

The information you use to calculate EV is information YOU create. Fact is, EV is useless in nuts and bolts handicapping. It could possibly be a good money management tool, but thats about it. You still have to know what your doing as far as handicapping goes.

[HUY]

The information you use to calculate EV is information YOU create. Fact is, EV is useless in nuts and bolts handicapping. It could possibly be a good money management tool, but thats about it. You still have to know what your doing as far as handicapping goes.

Really? Great insight.

[possum11]

Here is why its bull.. because unless you middle, you are no more likely to win. Regardless of what the expected value is, the final value is 0 if you lose. I have seen entire seasons in college football where the opening line beat the closing line, so beating the closing line would actually be betting on the wrong side.

[TheSchafe]

Agreed. Stopped caring about stuff like this and the Kelly criterion crap because, as you said, it's all perceived value. I'm all about just simply being on the winning side more often than not.

[RonPaul2008]

I have seen entire seasons in college football where the opening line beat the closing line, so beating the closing line would actually be betting on the wrong side.

Do you have some proof of this?

[Blax0r]

mentioning EV is really a proxy for having a CONCRETE probability of a side winning.

not sure about the others, but I wouldn't feel comfortable handicapping something when one cannot boil down his analysis to a simple "Giants have a 50% to cover".

[HUY]

Agreed. Stopped caring about stuff like this and the Kelly criterion crap because, as you said, it's all perceived value. I'm all about just simply being on the winning side more often than not.

And are you?

[raydog]

exactly, tpowell...fukking moron . thats why beating the closer at Pinny (which is +ev) since they opened has had huge returns... keep donating

[NunyaBidness]

What happened to this forum?

[Robber]

The think tank was intended for
people with functional brains

Obviously people like fishhead tpowell and venditto can't be expected to grasp the concept
of expected value

[The Kraken]

So being + EV and knowing what you are doing are mutually exclusive?

Thats interesting

[Wilverine]

Is he kidding? I'm going to feel like a fool if I type out an explanation and he's just trolling

[possum11]

Do you have some proof of this?

Look up tbeck prediction tracker.. he should still have the old seasons archived.

[Sawyer]

Now you understand how books stay in business