What is your reasonable OPTIMAL BETTING PRICE?

**Jaug** · 02-02-09, 06:58 AM

Well since pinny usually has -105 style pricing my aim would be far better than that. With several bookies and matchbook I would say -102 on average at least. Probably closer to +100 since you sometimes get free points from bookies that are slow to change their prices.

**durito** · 02-02-09, 08:48 AM

-15,000

**Justin7** · 02-02-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by MilfDriller

The difference in pricing over the long run is absolutely monstrous. It would have to be the equivalent of working a 7 hour day as opposed to an 8 hour day.

Anyways, what is your reasonable optimal betting price?

Assuming the standard is -110 (which is quite expensive), what do you aim for and acheive on average? (and most likely using Pinnacle and Matchbook)

Do you consistently achieve -105 on average?

The better the price, the better. Naturally. But can you do better than -105 on average over the long run?

There's no such thing as a standard. If I look at a game and can play it at -108 or -104 at a spread, or -110 at a half-point better... It's just a conversions test. A few pennies will make a break a play.

You can't talk about averages so easily, because laying -110 and getting 1/2 a point better is usually a superior price to -105 at a worse number.

**u21c3f6** · 02-02-09, 03:30 PM

What Justin7 said, I don't have a "standard". Once I have determined the wager, I then look for the best available price. Of course, the best available price must make sense for the wager I am making.

**MilfDriller** · 02-02-09, 07:09 PM

I see what you guys are saying. My point is just that after tracking one month's of wagers you have a spreadsheet and you have your respective prices listed for your wagers.

At the end of the month (assuming your wager amount is constant) you simply sum these up and find your avg price for the month.

For instance, assuming this were already done in the past few months:

NOV: -106.52 avg price
DEC: -103.95 avg price
JAN: -108.27 avg price

this is what I'm referring to. Right now I'm using Greek so I'm pretty much -110 across the board. Occasionally I'll get a plus side on an ATS wager.... or the price will be jacked to -130 and so forth.

Anyways, I'll be mixing it up with different books soon as losing out on a better price is like adding a losing wager or two each month to your monthly tally

Bottom line is to get the price as you say. I was just curious what you would say your avg. price is over the long term.

**u21c3f6** · 02-02-09, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by MilfDriller

Bottom line is to get the price as you say. I was just curious what you would say your avg. price is over the long term.

I don't calculate my average price because it wouldn't mean anything to me.

What I do is to compare the odds with my expectation. ie. I don't like to wager unless I think I have a 10% or better edge. If I think something has a 60% chance of cashing, I then would want to get -120 or better odds. I would shop for the best odds. What I do keep track of is whether or not my 60% expectation plays are really hitting at a 60% rate. If they are, as long as I wager at -120 or better, I will make 10+% overall. Even if they are not hitting at 60%, the "10% edge" gives me some leeway without necessarily losing overall. I do the same thing for my 55%, 50% expectation wagers etc. Of course for the 55% expectation wagers I want +100 or better and for 50% I want +120 or better etc.

Realize that more than half of my wagering is live action wagers which is very different than wagering before the game IMO. I find it easier to apply what I wrote above to the live action wagers than before the game wagers.

**onlinepokerpro31** · 02-02-09, 10:30 PM

expensive or cheap is a relative term.

-110 for something that happens 60% is cheaper than -105 for something that happens 55% of the time. this is from an ev perspective.

of course one can always sell point so that he only makes plays at +100, but it also cut his ev on his wagers.

the better price, the better, if it's for the exact same product. that's why lineshopping is key.

sometimes averages dun give us a meaningful number.

**MilfDriller** · 02-02-09, 11:52 PM

I agree. At times in college football I have seen 2half or quarter lines soar to -145.... and I swear it's a home run, but I'm put off by the price. This is especially true of getting the plus side of the hook in college and pro football. Often times they will tie or win outright.

**NickBaragona** · 02-03-09, 12:13 AM

What exactly are "reduced lines"? I use 5Dimes, and I just recently found their reduced lines...why do they post their regular lines if you can get them reduced as well? Is there any downside of reduced lines?

**reno cool** · 02-03-09, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by NickBaragona

What exactly are "reduced lines"? I use 5Dimes, and I just recently found their reduced lines...why do they post their regular lines if you can get them reduced as well? Is there any downside of reduced lines?

limits, and only offered at certain times, usually day of game.