Superbowl Futures Bet (Arizona Cardinals) - Mark To Market and Hedging

[matekus]

Without claiming any special handicapping insights, I am in the fortunate position of holding a Superbowl Futures Bet on the Arizona Cardinals with a potential payoff of $12,700. Using a simple Mark to Market analysis [Yao (2007) pp 64-68], I reckon I have a current market exposure of approximately $1,900. In addition, by hedging on opponents, I can guarantee a minimum payout of approximately $3,000.

In this context, I would appreciate any advice on how to maximize my position or, if such a discussion is inappropriate, then any generic advice on marking to market and hedging futures bets would suffice.

I appreciate that for many of you professionals this is not a particularly large position to hold, but for me and other neophytes it is. When we get lucky it would be nice to know how best to handle it.

Apologies in advance if this posting breaks any forum rules.

Please advise?

matekus

[Justin7]

This is perfectly appropriate. His book is very good.

Why do you have more exposure on this position than you want? Did you overbet?

What price did you get it at? what current price do you have?

[Bullajami]

I appreciate that for many of you professionals this is not a particularly large position to hold, but for me and other neophytes it is. When we get lucky it would be nice to know how best to handle it.

Very. Nicely. Done.

[reno cool]

Seems that your $12,000 futures bet on Arz is not worth $3000 today as the line against is -800 or so. Or are talking about Arz winning NFC. Either way I would recommend leaving the amount you would consider betting on Arz and hedge out the rest. That is if you're normally a $50 better hedge out 2950. But consider the 3000 as part of your bankroll when making that determination.

[matekus]

Hedge Preplanned

Did you overbet?

Justin,

Excellent question.

Though I am relatively inexperienced in sports trading, the hedge was preplanned so I am not uncomfortable with the size of the current position. That said, the primary motivation for the initial posting was to carry out a sanity check on whether or not I was considering all the options to maximize my final payout.

matekus

[matekus]

Luck Not Skill

Very. Nicely. Done.

Bullajami,

Thanks for the kind words.

However, I must acknowledge that it was luck (rather than skill) which brought about the current position.

matekus

[matekus]

Luck Not Skill

Very. Nicely. Done.

Bullajami,

Thanks for the kind words.

However, I must acknowledge that it was luck (rather than skill) which brought about the current position.

matekus

[matekus]

Sage Advice

Either way I would recommend leaving the amount you would consider betting on Arz and hedge out the rest.

reno cool,

As indicated in my reply to Justin above, the hedge was preplanned.

matekus