Playing NBA Middles (Video)

**RogueJuror** · 12-28-08, 07:53 AM

Very good video man.

**diogee** · 12-28-08, 08:04 AM

Thanks for the video Justin...very good info as always.

**pico** · 12-28-08, 08:12 AM

nice vid. you're right it is a bit dry

**trytrytry** · 12-28-08, 09:20 AM

nice watch

**Arilou** · 12-28-08, 09:34 AM

In terms of the assumption that the landing %s don't change, I would note that obviously they do go down a tiny bit but that the difference is trivial if you're dealing with off-market numbers rather than teasers.

**Justin7** · 12-28-08, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Arilou

In terms of the assumption that the landing %s don't change, I would note that obviously they do go down a tiny bit but that the difference is trivial if you're dealing with off-market numbers rather than teasers.

One could easily do a thesis on this topic.

Look at the push-rate for the "3" in NFL. How much does it change for a 2.5 fav, and 3.5 fav?

**Peep** · 12-28-08, 12:22 PM

Another approach to this particular problem is to look at the situation as in "real life". I like this better as I do not think a half off the 2 is worth the same as a half off of the six or the seven, or even the three.

Out of 11308 games, I have the home team as a two point favorite 294 times (not counting -2.5's).

They win by exactly two eight times (2.7%). The "two" is a pretty dead closing margin number in NBA.

They win by one twice (.6%) and by three 12 times (4%).

So rather than bothering middling, IF I bothered playing it, I would play my best off number (the -1) since I pick up a lot more value that way.

**FreeFall** · 12-28-08, 04:45 PM

Love the videos, no matter how dry numbers are always fun. How do you know the spread will win 52% of the time? Or did you know it would lose some % and figured out the win %. If so how did you know the lose %?

Thanks a lot for your time and for the videos I appreciate it. Anyway we can get a sample spreadsheet of those equations?

**Justin7** · 12-28-08, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

Love the videos, no matter how dry numbers are always fun. How do you know the spread will win 52% of the time? Or did you know it would lose some % and figured out the win %. If so how did you know the lose %?

Thanks a lot for your time and for the videos I appreciate it. Anyway we can get a sample spreadsheet of those equations?

A fair bet will win half the time that it doesn't push. If +2 pushes 4%, it will win 48% and lose 48%.

If you get +2.5, that push becomes a draw. Win 48+4 = 52%.

**flyingillini** · 12-28-08, 05:40 PM

Great video

**Peeig** · 12-28-08, 08:14 PM

Nice vid......I don't bet sports, but I do come over here to watch these vids, very informative.

**Justin7** · 12-28-08, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by Peeig

Nice vid......I don't bet sports, but I do come over here to watch these vids, very informative.

I'm glad you like them! If you have questions, send them to me. The posters here have much better ideas than anything I can come up with.

**nosniboR11** · 12-28-08, 09:03 PM

Good video , thanks justin , your videos are really the only ones worth watching

**purecarnagge** · 01-02-09, 11:04 PM

Thanks for the shout out and answering my question on middling. Happy New Years btw

**gamble4heisman** · 01-03-09, 03:12 AM

good video, has there been any progress on a half point calculator (specifically push probabilities) for middling ncaa hoops and nba halftime totals? this would be a great weapon to have.

thanks

**icelancer** · 01-03-09, 07:47 AM

Justin7,

Sooo dry. Just a bunch of numbers.

Fortunately, sports betting is all about numbers. I don't mind one bit.

Great video.

**Justin7** · 01-03-09, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by gamble4heisman

good video, has there been any progress on a half point calculator (specifically push probabilities) for middling ncaa hoops and nba halftime totals? this would be a great weapon to have.

thanks

Half-points in NBA totals are worth about 5 cents. I don't remember NCAAB, but I think they are close.

If the market is "X", you can blindly bet any total off 1.5 points. So a 2.5 point total middle is profitable - e.g. OV170 -110 and UND172.5 -110. If you are getting it at -105, you only need 1.5 points (OV170 -105 and UND 171.5 -105).

**purecarnagge** · 01-03-09, 11:03 AM

is there a calculator for football ?

**B1GER1C828** · 01-03-09, 01:41 PM

DO A KELLY VIDEO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i just want to understand it one day :-P

lol great stuff again justin, very informative stuff, keep it coming. KELLY!

**Justin7** · 01-03-09, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

DO A KELLY VIDEO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i just want to understand it one day :-P

lol great stuff again justin, very informative stuff, keep it coming. KELLY!

Already done months ago.

**B1GER1C828** · 01-03-09, 02:45 PM

wooo i got some more video to watch, thanks again justin, ur the man..great stuff

**gamble4heisman** · 01-03-09, 09:09 PM

Justin, thanks for the reply. I have used the tools you and ganchrow have provided to evaluate the profitablity of full game middles. My question is for point values on half time totals. i have roughly done numbers and estimations and i believe it to be +EV at 1.5 points and at -110. Obviously the lower the total number the higher the push probability, was curious to your thoughts on middling half time totals.

thanks again.