Exploiting +EV live bets

[ClimbSomeRocks]

My theory is that this should work for all sports, but it is definitely true and I have noticed success in NFL the past two seasons. I am wondering how this would play out in basketball as well. The most recent example of a very "easy" bet that I placed was during the power outage at the superbowl. In live betting i was able to get 49ers +3.5 +105 for the 3rd quarter. Now this seemed like a no brainer to me as the market price during halftime (before the kickoff return) was 49ers -3 -110 for the 3rd quarter.

So taking this live bet gives me a line that is 6.5 points better than the market value. The Ravens had already scored 7 points in the 3rd quarter when this bet became available. I booked this bet because I agree'd with the announcers' statements that this stoppage would kill the Ravens' momentum. The power outage clearly impacted the game and possibly resulted in the 49ers covering this bet. Was taking the 49ers here at +3.5 +105 a +EV play? The line was initially +4.5 -115 before I sold a point to reduce paying all that vig. Does anything change in the value of this play if I had already booked Ravens +3 -110 for the 3rd Quarter and am attempting to middle? Lastly, would the play have more value if it did not cross the 0 and moved from -10 to -4.5.

I've been very successful with live betting for the NFL, and I can think of numerous opportunities to beat the closing line in basketball due to the volatility of scoring. Middling also seems quite possible with this angle of thinking.

I look forward to some feedback from more experienced handicappers, surely there is a hole somewhere in my logic

[EXhoosier10]

Live betting is my favorite thing to do for this exact reason. I'm not sure how I'd feel about playing just 1Q of football due to the fact that a team can have a 6+ minute possession and give the other team only one other shot to score, but NBA and MLB when you can get a bet after a quarter of the game has passed, there are tons of opportunities IMO

[FreeFall]

you cited a situation where your previous position went your way profitability wise. What do you do when it doesn't go your way?

[lovesbaseball1]

Do you understand the bet that you made, +3.5 +115 for the 3rd quarter while down 7-0 is the same as laying 3.5 for the rest of the quarter?

[brettd]

I booked this bet because I agree'd with the announcers' statements that this stoppage would kill the Ravens' momentum.

The concept of momentum in a game is inconclusive at best. Numerous studies have come to differing conclusions as to whether momentum actually exists or not.

[HUY]

My theory is that this should work for all sports, but it is definitely true and I have noticed success in NFL the past two seasons. I am wondering how this would play out in basketball as well. The most recent example of a very "easy" bet that I placed was during the power outage at the superbowl. In live betting i was able to get 49ers +3.5 +105 for the 3rd quarter. Now this seemed like a no brainer to me as the market price during halftime (before the kickoff return) was 49ers -3 -110 for the 3rd quarter.

So taking this live bet gives me a line that is 6.5 points better than the market value. The Ravens had already scored 7 points in the 3rd quarter when this bet became available. I booked this bet because I agree'd with the announcers' statements that this stoppage would kill the Ravens' momentum. The power outage clearly impacted the game and possibly resulted in the 49ers covering this bet. Was taking the 49ers here at +3.5 +105 a +EV play? The line was initially +4.5 -115 before I sold a point to reduce paying all that vig. Does anything change in the value of this play if I had already booked Ravens +3 -110 for the 3rd Quarter and am attempting to middle? Lastly, would the play have more value if it did not cross the 0 and moved from -10 to -4.5.

I've been very successful with live betting for the NFL, and I can think of numerous opportunities to beat the closing line in basketball due to the volatility of scoring. Middling also seems quite possible with this angle of thinking.

I look forward to some feedback from more experienced handicappers, surely there is a hole somewhere in my logic

So is there some market inefficiency when power cuts break the play? I'm really interested in this, because it means I can make a couple hundred bucks every 10 years.

Also, as others pointed out, there is absolutely no proof that "momentum" exists in sports. In all my years of watching sports I've never found any reason to believe that momentum is anything but a myth, and the studies that went into it scientifically tend to agree. The fact that commentators talk about momentum means nothing.

[brettd]

The fact that commentators talk about momentum means nothing.

Spot on there. Commentators are talking heads, if anything, their drivel would be only be useful in gauging what the 1000's of Joe Square's would be thinking about their mindset when betting into the in-play market.

[EXhoosier10]

I don't hedge my open bets with live betting. I only live bet games that were close to being placed and then they get off to a bad first inning or two, then play them. Obviously this is contingent on me thinkng the game is going to have more than 6 runs being scored.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Do you understand the bet that you made, +3.5 +115 for the 3rd quarter while down 7-0 is the same as laying 3.5 for the rest of the quarter?

Yup. I made the bet because I believed it was certain that SF would get into the endzone for the rest of that quarter and that the Ravens had less than a 40% chance to score again on their next drive.

Also, as others pointed out, there is absolutely no proof that "momentum" exists in sports. In all my years of watching sports I've never found any reason to believe that momentum is anything but a myth, and the studies that went into it scientifically tend to agree. The fact that commentators talk about momentum means nothing.

The commentator talk about momentum means nothing, that is correct. Now although there is no statistic on momentum, have you ever played sports? The delay and outage gave Kaepernick time to think, time to rest. It also put the Ravens Offense off the field for 90 full minutes. Tell me you're not going to get cold after that. The 49ers' had yet to get into their rhythm, this extra time definitely did not hurt them. On the other side, the Ravens were definitely worse off after play resumed.
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[brettd]

Yeah great, as was mentioned you have found something that works once in many years. That's not going to help you cap live play on the weekly.

[HUY]

The commentator talk about momentum means nothing, that is correct. Now although there is no statistic on momentum, have you ever played sports? The delay and outage gave Kaepernick time to think, time to rest. It also put the Ravens Offense off the field for 90 full minutes. Tell me you're not going to get cold after that. The 49ers' had yet to get into their rhythm, this extra time definitely did not hurt them. On the other side, the Ravens were definitely worse off after play resumed.

It doesn't matter if I have played sports, because I don't compete in any sports that people bet on. On the other hand, numerous studies have been performed on those sports and no conclusive evidence in favor of momentum has ever been found. Try googling for the "hot hand effect".

[stikymess]

Unfortunately you will not have the luxury of a blackout delay most weekends.

I have had some success last year with live betting baseball, first taking the dog, and if the dog scored first I sometimes bought back on the favorite, yes you do lose value, but you are locking in a profit.

This of course is contingent on your book having live action, as well as the dog taking a lead, as well as you being around to place the wager.