Just like in trading financial markets (whether it is equities, commodities, etc), you have to find an overall inefficiency to gain an advantage (aka edge). In the case of sports betting, you have to find a favorable inefficiency in the odds (risk/reward) set by the bookmaker. It does not matter whether it is moneyline or ATS.
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It's not easy. If everybody could do it, then books would be out of business, lol.
I'm a self-confident person. Big Ego = Success. Succesful people have big egos. Show me a Wall Street Trader and I will show you a giant ego. Show a Rock Star and I will show you an ego in size of a dragon! Succesful people have two large sized-things: Balls and Ego.
Having a big ego will bless you with self-confidence, motivation and ambition. But in order to have a big ego, you should be also succesfull. And if you're succesful, you just can't help it. It's like having a DRAGON inside your stomach, lol.
My sports betting work was not really good 2 years ago. I had a very bad period. My bankroll was getting short, I was down to 10k and I was anxious about future. My self-confidence level was very low. But then I realized the root of success is FAILURE. Failure is great. Failure is a great teacher and also a great motivator! I failed maybe hundred maybe thousand times but each time I failed, I increased my roof one level higher. Then I failed my way to the top..
Success is like a magic wand..
Even your walk changes! The way you talk, the way you treat like and other people. The way you look changes..
Success, Glory, Ambition, Enthusiasm, Passion! Believe me, these are all related with ego.
Conclusion
Succesful people have big egos. Show me a Wall Street Trader and I will show you a giant ego. Show a Rock Star and I will show you an ego in size of a dragon! Succesful people got two big thing: Balls and Ego.Last edited by Sawyer; 02-23-13, 04:45 AM.Comment -
Well, great. Now we have people posting scripts from shady late-night infomercials as their philosophy that rationalizes both behaving like a boor and for betting without ever looking into the math behind it.Comment -
Ego is Good!
Ego is good. It always amazes me when I hear people criticize ego. Funny, but I've never met a superachiever without ego. Show me a great real estate developer, I'll show you an ego the size of Texas! Show me a great stock broker on Wall Street, I'll show you an ego the size of Manhattan! Show me a great actor in Holywood and I'll show yo an ego the size of California!
If you don't believe %200 percent in you, no one else will. Without confidence and sky-high self-esteem, you can accomplish nothing great in this world. The masses aim to just survive-to keep a job, to collect a paycheck-but superachievers expect to thrive.
I repeat: Ego is good! (Wayne Allyn Root, Zen of Gambling)Last edited by Sawyer; 02-23-13, 03:56 PM.Comment -
Sawyer, once again you are falling super hard for a supper common logical fallacy that is as old as a pyramids and then some.
It's called conformation bias.
You simply choose to consider ONLY those ego driven risk takers who are successful and thus VISIBLE to YOU.
This, in your mind, CONFIRMS an idea that ego is good.
You COMPLETELY IGNORE and EXLUDE from your line of thinking any dis-confirming evidence.
What would be a dis-confirming evidence?
An INVISIBLE to YOU army of unsuccessful risk takers with an exactly the same Texas/Manhattan/California size egos who are filling up bankruptcy courts every day.
If you would have a complete information and done a proper analysis you would inevitably see that success to failure ratio almost perfectly corresponds to simply chance. Out of huge numbers of those who tries, very few are bound to get on top just by luck alone.
Ego has nothing to do with it. If ego was a determining factor there would be hundred times more success stories.
You are apparently shortsighted enough to notice only lucky few, get confused and draw a wrong conclusion.
If one is not trained to constantly apply CRITICAL THINKING in one's daily life, this is exactly an expected result.
Now go ahead and do your usual stuff when you have no other arguments.
That would be a spitting out bunch of unsubstantiated claims about your tremendous long term success as a sport bettor.Last edited by hutennis; 02-24-13, 04:31 PM.Comment -
Sawyer is the village idiot; entertaining and inevitable at the same time.Comment -
You have to bet a +EV line at the right time. Since underdogs tend to lose more often than favorites.Comment -
Very good thread.
However in the end You still have to win the games ?
How you get to that point is the road we attempt to travel. I have always said that the most profitable players I have ever meet were the guys whom studied and played 1 Confernce and or league and knew the flow of the teams and players.
I think a gambler whom is all over the board no matter if he plays ML or ATS and everything inbetween is doomed in the long run.
Basics build bankrolls and all the other B.S about curves and lines and MIT crap is just that Crap.
Show me a guy whom is on top of his game and I can almost tell ya with 100% certainty that he sticks to the basics at the end of the day.
Then show me the guy with his so called Math models and all the other Iphone 5 smart stuff and his Ass will be broke as a joke.
So much is overlooked in capping because so many Think that there is a Magic formula that exists.
IT DONT...................................
Paw
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Agreed mostly except the magic formula part. It does. It's called pinnacle LeanVery good thread.
However in the end You still have to win the games ?
How you get to that point is the road we attempt to travel. I have always said that the most profitable players I have ever meet were the guys whom studied and played 1 Confernce and or league and knew the flow of the teams and players.
I think a gambler whom is all over the board no matter if he plays ML or ATS and everything inbetween is doomed in the long run.
Basics build bankrolls and all the other B.S about curves and lines and MIT crap is just that Crap.
Show me a guy whom is on top of his game and I can almost tell ya with 100% certainty that he sticks to the basics at the end of the day.
Then show me the guy with his so called Math models and all the other Iphone 5 smart stuff and his Ass will be broke as a joke.
So much is overlooked in capping because so many Think that there is a Magic formula that exists.
IT DONT...................................
Paw
You're wrong about model part also. Winning models/systems exist. If you don't have a winning math model, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. They exist but not shared in betting forums of course. Why I would give away my golden goose and lose my edge? LoL.Last edited by Sawyer; 04-11-13, 12:31 PM.Comment -
Amazing to me that when it comes to money lines even experienced people have a hard time distinguishing "price" and "juice."
In laying 6 points on a point spread wager, no one would call the 6 points "juice." They understand there are two components to the wager. The first is the point spread. The second is the juice or the vig or the service charge or the 11:10, etc..
When it comes to money lines, however, they fail to recognize these lines also consist of two distinct components. Part of the money line is the equivalent of a point spread. It's simply an adjustment for the disparity in the quality of the two teams in the matchup. It is not "juice." It is the no vig line on the game. The juice portion of the money line is only the difference you are laying or taking from that true no vig line. You handicap against the first component - to the no vig line - just as you handicap to the point spread. As to the ever present second component - the juice, the vig, the overlay, the service charge or whatever you want to call it - you should be aware of how much it is. You should respect it. And you should make every effort to keep it to a minimum. You only have a +EV play when your handicapping finds enough value against the no vig line or point spread to overcome it.
Until you grasp this fundamental concept you have no chance of understanding money lines in terms of value, probability or theoretical hold.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 04-11-13, 12:37 PM.Comment -
Sharp post
If you change your mentality, you can make great profits too. I'm sharing some advices here, it's up to you to take it or think other way. I won't say anything to make you agree with me, time will.
I don't care if %95 of forum disagrees with me. I know I'm on right path.
Many people think low odds (according to europen decimal odds I mean) are reliable. People think a -500 (1.25) or -600 (1.20) favourite is hard as a steel lock. They like to pick soccer teams on double chance (Draw+Side or known as 0,50 Asian Handicap) and reduce odds. Double chance in soccer is a very sucker bet. When I was in new in sports betting, I was asking myself, why people pick Manchester United -1,5? Manchester United -0,50 is a more safe play. After tapping out my bankroll many times, I realized why, lol.
Call it dumb or stupid, I don't care. You can't make money by betting heavy favourites. Picking Soccer Favourites as Double Chance, Betting Heavy basketball favourites on Moneyline, Picking hockey teams as Double Chance..will drain your bankroll.
Remember, anything can misfire. Even Miami without Lebron&Wade can beat Red Hot Spurs on the road..
But people won't change. They don't learn from their mistakes. They will keep tapping out their bankroll. They will keep depositing and reloading their accouns. In order to increase their win chance, they will sacrifice something very very precious; ODDS over and over again..
Betting public lookin' for easy winners. They don't want to stress themselves about if favourite will cover. I just need favourite to win straight up, they think. It's much easier. But as I said above, they sacrifice something very precious; odds.Last edited by Sawyer; 04-11-13, 03:12 PM.Comment -
So if you had a reliable model tell you that a team had an 80% chance of winning but a book was only offering it at -200 you wouldn't do it because it is a heavy favorite on the ML? I would agree that most ML bets (like most sports bets in general) are -EV, but there is +EV to be found in betting MLs just like there is value to be found betting spreads. You just seem to be making super generalized statements with no real backing other than anecdotal stories and evidence-- Like I said before, I seriously doubt you make as much money as you claim just based on seeing your thought process in this thread.Comment -
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Do the math. 1,50 x 80 makes 120. That's 20 points above 100. You must be stupid to not pick it up
Btw, did you examined spread? If spread is offered at -105 (1,952) and there's a %63 chance of cover according to your estimation, then you must pick this team on spread, not ML!
1,952 x 63 = 122,976
1,50 x 80 = 120,00
Sure, time to time you can find some value on ML too but not very often. Enisey for example. If you had picked Enisey (Russian Basketball League) even at 1,25 (-500) it was a super value bet. Asking about spread? Yeah, they won by +30, lol.
Time to time, you can find some value on favourites as well, but not often! Being a contrarian will give you much better rewards..
Check your PM btw
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If I could get someone to offer me -500 on you (Sawyer) scoring less than 125 on a standard IQ test, it would be the biggest +EV bet of my life.Comment -
You lost unfortunately. I'm 131.
I'm so glad people like you exist. No way, I would not be able to make money without squares like you It's not a battle betwen you and the sportsbook. It's a battle between you and the public. You're the public. Please, forget everything I said in this thread and keep betting heavy favourites, please!
Thanks!Comment -
assuming you are sharp enough to not go more than 3% BR max on any one wager, and the few pros i know keep it at 1% or lower, you are suggesting here either a win rate over 80% (impossible) or a BR north of a million euros, in which case, why would you waste your time in forums and in sportsbooks risking your capital when there are much safer ways to return profits while doing zero work?
35K?
How do you get around limits to generate such a massive return?Comment -
Suggesting a %80 win rate? You're living in wonderland? LoL. I don't remember I said something like I hit %80. No, my winning percentage is below %61.
My bankroll is 288k. Not even million, lol.
Sorry but I'm not gonna give out my secrets here but there's no harm to tell you that I'm not winning only from straight bets. There's pre-game trading, in-play trading, arbitrage trading and even bonus hunting.
These all adds up.
How do I get around limits to generate such a massive return? Do you know Pinnacle, Sbobet, IBC and Betfair?
Why wasting my time in forums?
I really don't understand this question. Let's say you're a millionaire. Why not lurk around the forums when you have money? What's wrong about it? I may have money but still, time to time I feel alone, about sports betting. Maybe sad but true but richier you get, you become more lonely. People think someone who makes great money by sports betting won't waste time in forums but this is so wrong. You can't know it unless you live it.
Sometimes, I feel so alone. Sure, I got many friends, when I go out I have great time but very few people can understand me. Very few people can touch my inner-world, sports betting world. This is something that you can't explain, you can't understand. You can understand it only when you live it.Last edited by Sawyer; 04-13-13, 07:08 PM.Comment -
I have to confess something. Sometimes, I feel so alone. I'm a married man and have many friends..but still, time to time I feel alone. You can't talk about sports betting with everybody. Many people are living in another world..normal people who don't bet or people who try to get-rich with a monster parlay. They're all living in different planets. Sometimes, I feel so alone. Sure, we talk about other things in life but at the end of the day..you want to share some stuff about betting..Hard to explain it..Comment -
Sawyer with all due respect it sounds like your either a massive luckbox or your full of crap.Comment -
Luck has %0 factor over long haul. It's up to you to believe what you want to. You can be sure your think/guess way of life would be more different if you were a facebook friend of mine, lol,wa
Anyawy, I'm not interested on what anybody thinks. I really don't care 'bout it so don't s*hit the thread
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anyway lets not get out of the thread subject. thread ıs bettıng ml profitabilility. letme conclude. if u r betting -600 -1000 then u sux. u have %0 chance to win over long haul. u think u suck. quit betting, lol.
Professional handicappers bet on sharp lines be it dog orfavourite but anything above -500? helli no lol. it sounds too amateur
this is what i meant to tell in this thread but some sheeps were unable to understand llollllllllllll
ı hope u r not one of them lol goood luckComment -
No question about this. As a professional in another field with a predominance of females, talking about sports betting is non-existent particularly in a country where it is illegal. Everyone can talk about meaningless stats of the day or fantasy sports but there is little opportunity to talk about the basis of profitable sports betting. No one understands it or they think you are a degenerate gambler like a slot player.Comment -
Good shate than my man. the only individual to beat math...no gamblers ruin or variance in your betting. Congrats sir.Comment -
Everyone on the internet makes 100k/month, has +130 IQ, and most of all they have at least a 9 inch rod.Comment
