How Accurate is this

[rfr3sh]

Using eFG% to calculate the number of baskets made and then using a Poisson distrubution to price total points props?

[Juret]

Not at all accurate, several assumptions are violated. For starters, points are not created one at the time in basketball, which is necessary for Poisson. Secondly, Poisson is the law of rare events, and scoring points in an offensive stint in basketball is not rare.

[rfr3sh]

Points are not created one at a time but baskets are which is what i was calculating.. And how is rare defined? Is one basket made in 48 minutes rare?

[Juret]

A rule of thumb is that p should be 0.05 at most.

[rfr3sh]

ok thanks

[Justin3587]

What is a poisson distribution??

[Peregrine Stoop]

What is a poisson distribution??

if only someday, someone will invent a search engine

[Justin3587]

if only someday, someone will invent a search engine

If only one day, SBR would find some dudes who aren't shitty all day every day.

[Inspirited]

The Google is God

Ask God

[drunkenbeaver]

if only someday, someone will invent a search engine

I could see this reply coming a mile away

[HUY]

What is a poisson distribution??

A probability distribution that describes (among else) the frequency by which very stupid posts (such as yours) appear in discussion threads.

[hutennis]

@Justin3587

If you go to poisson distribution Wiki page you will see why expecting more or less decent explanation on public internet forum is not exactly reasonable.