Allow me to reintroduce myself ....

**Justin7** · 11-07-12, 11:49 PM

Post away... but perhaps explain why you think the Jaguars are public, and why your strategy of fading the public will win? Methods are more important than picks in this forum.

**skrtelfan** · 11-08-12, 05:46 AM

isnt it kind of obvious, the wa line is +3 +100 so any book with +3.5 is probably a square out. bodog square line has +3.5 -105, sia +4, those bets have to be good

**allin1** · 11-08-12, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

isnt it kind of obvious, the wa line is +3 +100 so any book with +3.5 is probably a square out. bodog square line has +3.5 -105, sia +4, those bets have to be good

what if the line closes at +5?

**CollegePro** · 11-08-12, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Post away... but perhaps explain why you think the Jaguars are public, and why your strategy of fading the public will win? Methods are more important than picks in this forum.

you mean why he thinks Colts are public??

**Justin7** · 11-08-12, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by CollegePro

you mean why he thinks Colts are public??

Yes.

**cyberbabble** · 11-08-12, 10:53 AM

The only game going on so all the public interest is focused on one TV game.
Indy has a national reputation as a big name team, at least compared to Jacksonville.
People that want to bet on the game take Indy since nobody views Jacksonville as a good team.
Sbr consensus shows 63% of the bets and 80% of the money on Indy.
Indy is the public team.

**Justin7** · 11-08-12, 11:12 AM

@Cyber: Pinny opened Indy -3x +105, and is no -3 -117. Basically no movement.

If 80% of the money is on Indy, why hasn't Pinny moved?

**cyberbabble** · 11-08-12, 04:32 PM

Justin7 -

Just making a case to support OP and keeping the chitchat going. I do find the consensus interesting and think it has potential for being useful.

I'll give my interpretation of the line moves anyway.

Pinnacle posts Jax+3.5. It moves to Jax+3 in minutes. Sharps love Jax+3.5 and grab it fast. Pinnacle gets scared and posts Jax+3 almost immediately. I would say that a half point on or off the 3 is actually a pretty significant move. Sharps looking sharp. They got Jax+3.5 and now can get Indy-3 if they want it. Scalp / half middle are now possible. I'm just looking at the point spread and not trying to use the juice to determine the profitability of buying back with Indy.

The sharps bet Jax+3.5 and aren't interested at Jax+3. Public money comes in on Indy-3. They like Indy as the better, big name team and -3 is not bad. Public decides Indy will win or at worst push on -3. Public money starts piling up on Indy.

Pinnacle probably doesn't want another point spread change. They are gradually making Jax+3+1xx more positive to attract more Jax money to offset the out of balance money that has built up on Indy.

**milwaukee mike** · 11-08-12, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

@Cyber: Pinny opened Indy -3x +105, and is no -3 -117. Basically no movement.

If 80% of the money is on Indy, why hasn't Pinny moved?

when pinny went to -3 it was -3 -109, got up to -3 -121 so that's a little more than "no movement"

i think if they would've gone to -3.5 again the money would've come pouring in on jacksonville like it did right away

**cyberbabble** · 11-08-12, 06:30 PM

Also interesting -
It's the common view that Bovada shades the lines to take advantage of the public preference for favorites. Bovada opened an Indy-3.5 and now has Indy-4.5 while it is still Indy-3 at the "sharper" books. Public likes Indy and Bovada is forcing the Indy betters pay a high price to bet their choice.

**Justin7** · 11-08-12, 06:49 PM

Btw, I do agree with Jax tonight at +3x -110 or better.

**uncynd** · 11-08-12, 07:11 PM

just tease jax and the under

**statictheory** · 11-10-12, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by cyberbabble

Justin7 -

Just making a case to support OP and keeping the chitchat going. I do find the consensus interesting and think it has potential for being useful.

I'll give my interpretation of the line moves anyway.

Pinnacle posts Jax+3.5. It moves to Jax+3 in minutes. Sharps love Jax+3.5 and grab it fast. Pinnacle gets scared and posts Jax+3 almost immediately. I would say that a half point on or off the 3 is actually a pretty significant move. Sharps looking sharp. They got Jax+3.5 and now can get Indy-3 if they want it. Scalp / half middle are now possible. I'm just looking at the point spread and not trying to use the juice to determine the profitability of buying back with Indy.

The sharps bet Jax+3.5 and aren't interested at Jax+3. Public money comes in on Indy-3. They like Indy as the better, big name team and -3 is not bad. Public decides Indy will win or at worst push on -3. Public money starts piling up on Indy.

Pinnacle probably doesn't want another point spread change. They are gradually making Jax+3+1xx more positive to attract more Jax money to offset the out of balance money that has built up on Indy.

When I see a line at 3.5 like that its there to drive action to the dog,since the 3 is such a key number. moving it a half point to the 3 is all they need to after they get the action they need. Since many "Pros"look for value and try
to get a half point or point edge wherever they can, and the "pro" handicappers are using their models to make their
own line, isnt it obvious that sharp money can be on both sides of many games? The betting against the public Idea
sounds good in theory, but in practice...................In this game it could be that both the value hunters and the handicappers are on the same side and the public is on the other, as it looks like, but one game does not a strategy make.

**cyberbabble** · 11-10-12, 07:24 PM

I've never worked for a book, so I won't claim to know why they do what they do. I think the SBR consensus is interesting and have a few ideas how it could be used. I'm going to watch it this season and see what happens.

You are saying the books anticipate a lot of INDY money coming in and they post JAX+3.5 to get some money on JAX to offset the anticipated INDY money? Sounds like a good explanation.

I'll claim that IF there is a public team, it will be INDY for the reasons I gave. I'll claim that money coming in during the first 10 minutes after the line is posted is sharp or pro or knowledgeable money but certainly not public money.

Betting against the public consensus is probably a good strategy. The problem is deciding where the public is and more importantly has the public moved enough money to affect the line by a half point or point.

Let's use the SBR consensus to come up with something good.