this just an idea...if anyone has tried, i dunno, probably...but please help me:
Lets compare two faves in MLB today:
ATL -131ML 160RL
and
KC -131ML 150RL
Real simplistic idea based on what i see: bet on KC ML and FADE ATL.
why?
by the runline odds (technically) there is less a chance ATL wins by two runs or more, than KC.
So the books are telling us that the run-margin in the ATL game is lower, so i should fade.
This is the SIMPLISTIC part of this idea..but ive been tracking this further and this is what ive found the last few days...I KNOW I MUST BACKTEST, but im JUST THROWING THIS OUT THERE for some of you to comment and help.
Ive found the following:
when the ML-RL difference is 85 or more, the price moves in the dogs favor 75% of the time, and in the time period ive been tracking it (this season), dogs won 72% of these games.
what do i mean by difference?
example:
last night line opened
NYM -133ML 158RL vs COL +123
so 33+58 = 91
under my hypothesis this calls for a play on the DOG. and the dog moved to close today at +115...so it moved 8 pts in my favor...
anyways, anyone done any work on something like this...there MUST be a correlation between ML/RL because no way RLs are jsut simply different randomly for the same price MLs.
i know the OU has to do with it, but ive found this difference in SAME OUs anyways...