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I have a feeling the Giants may take a look at Bellinger especially if they strike out on Judge. I don't know how I feel about that because Bellinger is a great glove man but can't hit anymore which seems like a lot of Giants outfielders. Who knows though maybe a change of scenery will do him some good.Comment -
Seems pitchers just very good at exploiting Bellingers swing.Comment -
Looks like the Padres are making Jose Abreu "a priority".
I would love that signing, the guy is an RBI machine and much needed in the heart of the lineup.Comment -
The Mets are hopeful of re-signing Jacob deGrom, but if they fail in that pursuit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has emerged as a “prominent possibility” for the team, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma cites a source that confirms the Mets are indeed considering the former Astros ace.
deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York of course, and the Mets already believe they are his preferred team, but it certainly shows the Mets’ intention to again be active at the top of the starting pitching market, be that deGrom or not.
Verlander, 39, showed no signs of age in 2022, making one of the more remarkable returns from Tommy John surgery to toss 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball for Houston, win the Cy Young award and take home a World Series ring. Though his strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since joining Houston (down to 27.85), his fastball velocity remained in tact (and actually improved on his last full season), and he accounted for the dip in strikeouts by posting the equal-best walk rate of his lengthy career (4.4%).
It’s a stunning turnaround for a pitcher that threw just six innings between 2020-21, and sets himself up nicely to add to his already illustrious career. He’s already got three Cy Young awards, one MVP, two World Series titles and is now 56 wins away from the 300-win milestone. That last one may seem like a stretch, but Verlander has averaged 18.33 wins a season over his last three full seasons, so it’s certainly not out of the question if he bags a three-year deal. It’s likely Verlander will seek deals from teams that give him the best chance to win, and a return to the Astros remains a strong possibility, while teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies could join the Mets in the race for his signature.
It speaks to the quality of Verlander’s output even as he’s aged that MLBTR recently predicted he’d take home a three-year, $120MM deal, even though he’ll turn 40 in February. While the performance remains elite, the thought of paying a pitcher $40MM into his age-42 season must give some owner’s pause though. Instead, perhaps the Mets might bump up Verlander’s AAV beyond the $43.3MM record that Max Scherzer takes home, and keep it to a more manageable two-year deal.
In any event, it shows the Mets are set to be aggressive in adding a frontline starter to partner Scherzer in 2023. Of course, deGrom and Verlander aren’t the only options either, and the Mets could be in on Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga as well to bolster their light rotation stocks. Currently Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start 2023, while David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also have roles at the back of the rotation, depending on how New York’s off-season unfolds.Comment -
Let’s keep Abreu in Chicago plz.Comment -
The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search. Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.
The right-hander is no stranger to the Big Apple, having spent the last two seasons with the Yankees. Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he rebounded to post a 4.08 ERA over 321 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. Taillon has a below-average strikeout rate and he returned from that TJ recovery with below-average fastball velocity, but he has excellent spin rates and strong control. Taillon’s 4.4% walk rate ranked in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in 2022.
Perhaps most importantly, Taillon has been healthy over the last two seasons, apart from a three-week IL stint with an ankle injury in September 2021. Taillon has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and battled testicular cancer, so the Yankees certainly assumed some risk when they acquired Taillon in a deal with the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason. Fortunately, Taillon has avoided any further major heath problems, and now (if anything) looks like something of a reliable veteran innings-eater that could fit into any team’s rotation.
The Yankees opted against issuing a qualifying offer to Taillon, so he was able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to his services. MLBTR projected Taillon for a four-year, $56MM contract, but with the caveat that the righty’s Tommy John history could make it difficult for him to land that fourth guaranteed year.
Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, leaving the Mets with some major holes to fill in the rotation. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco will certainly fill two of the five spots, and David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and recent trade acquisition Elieser Hernandez could end up all battling for one available spot, or possibly all be depth options depending on how many pitchers are added or re-signed. As one might expect, the Mets have been aggressive in exploring the market, checking in on the top names (deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga), more second-tier starters like Taillon or Andrew Heaney, and back-of-the-rotation depth like Hernandez.Comment -
where will trea turner land and how much will he getComment -
Rizzo also a fabulous first baseman.Comment -
Blue Jays and Giants interested in Bellinger. I guess just in case the Giants don't pick up Judge.Comment -
Everyone in on Bellinger.Comment -
1. Judge To Meet With Giants
Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.
2. Cody Bellinger’s Market Developing
Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.Comment -
bellinger needs a one year prove it deal , same with gallo prove u can put the ball in playComment -
So today, Judge meets with the San Francisco Giants.
The world is watchingComment -
After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yordan Alvarez, DH: $115MM through 2028
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $68MM through 2026
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $57MM through 2024
- José Altuve, 2B: $52MM through 2024
- Rafael Montero, RHP: $34.5MM through 2025
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $30MM through 2024 (including buyout on 2025 vesting option)
- Héctor Neris, RHP: $9.5MM through 2023 (including buyout on 2024 vesting club/player option)
- MartÃn Maldonado, C: $4.5MM through 2023
Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option
Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)
- Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM
- Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM
- Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM
- José Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM
- Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM
- Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM
- Mauricio Dubón (2.162): $1.2MM
- Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K
Non-tendered: Josh James
Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM
Free Agents
- Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel, Aledmys DÃaz, Michael Brantley, Trey Mancini, Christian Vázquez, Will Smith, Jason Castro
For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.
With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.
For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.
There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.
Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.
Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.
Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.
The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.
That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.
Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat MartÃn Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.
Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.
No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.
Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.
The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys DÃaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.
Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.
If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.
Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.
Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer DÃaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.
The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely RodrÃguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.
There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.
In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.Comment -
I feel like I can only see Judge in a Yankee uniform. He should go to the Rockies and go for bonds recordComment -
I hope Judge stays in the AL.Comment -
Joc Pederson teasing on Twitter about the JudgeComment -
Joc has been an active recruiter since signing with the Giants. He did the same last year when he signed with the Giants and he's doing it again this offseason since he signed his qualifying offer. We'll see if the Giants land Judge and actually spend some money but like I said I'll believe it when I see it.Comment -
Arguably the biggest question for the Twins this offseason is how they’ll address shortstop. Minnesota’s shocking Spring Training signing of Carlos Correa solved the position for the 2022 campaign, but it’s again up in the air after the two-time All-Star opted out of the final two years on his contract.
That Correa’s now back on the open market puts Minnesota in competition with the league for his services. Twins ownership and the front office has spoken about their desire to bring him back, although they’re up against traditionally bigger spenders. Unlike last offseason, when the former first overall pick settled for a three-year guarantee to secure the highest per-year salary for a free agent position player in MLB history, he’s expected to command a long-term deal this winter.
During a recent appearance on the Talk North podcast, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested the Twins have put forth contract offers of varying lengths to Correa. Neal indicates Minnesota’s proposals range from six to ten years with differing average salaries in each. The shorter-term offers would surely feature higher annual payouts, with the comparatively lesser length reducing the team’s longer-term risk.
Financial terms of the proposals aren’t clear, but it’s notable Minnesota is ostensibly willing to make a long-term commitment to play at the top of the market. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184MM extension in March 2010 but have otherwise only reached or narrowly exceeded a nine-figure guarantee twice ($105.3MM for Correa and $100MM for Byron Buxton, both last offseason). A Correa deal of six-plus years would almost certainly set a new high-water mark for the organization, even if the contract contained one or more opt-out chances.
Correa is the #2 free agent of this winter in MLBTR’s estimation, predicted for a nine-year deal worth $288MM. Headed into his age-28 campaign, he’s still the youngest of the four top open market options at the position. Dansby Swanson is going into his age-29 season, while Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will each spend most of next season at 30 years old. Correa narrowly led that group with a .467 slugging mark this past season, while Bogaerts finished first with a .377 on-base percentage. On a rate basis, Correa was the top offensive player by measure of wRC+, although a pair of minimal injured list stints for a finger contusion and a battle with COVID-19 kept him to 590 plate appearances.
While retaining Correa figures to be the Twins’ ideal course of action, Neal relays that Bogaerts would be Minnesota’s secondary target. Dan Hayes of the Athletic similarly suggested earlier this month the Twins were likely to pivot to the longtime Red Sox star if Correa were to land elsewhere. Boston has consistently maintained a desire to keep Bogaerts, while he’s also drawn some reported interest from the Phillies.
The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last week, at least mitigating the need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency if they come up empty on their pursuit of the top four shortstops. Farmer’s a competent defender coming off a .255/.315/.386 showing during his final season in Cincinnati. His presence raises the floor at the position, but he’s certainly capable of assuming a utility role off the bench if the Twins make an impact move.
Minnesota presently projects for a 2023 payroll around $98MM, per Roster Resource. They have just over $19MM in guaranteed commitments by 2024. Minnesota opened this past season with player spending a bit above $134MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s pretty clear flexibility to make a significant investment at the shortstop position, although the front office will have to weigh that course of action against their desire to upgrade in the bullpen, behind the dish and in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.Comment -
The Philadelphia Phillies have made a move in free agency, as they have reportedly signed veteran catcher and first baseman John Hicks to a minor league deal.
whoever that isComment
