21. Anthony Rizzo. Three years, $45MM.
TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Braves
As the longtime face of the Cubs, it seemed like the club would hammer out an extension with Rizzo even if they intended to take a step back in 2022. He’d already signed a seven-year extension in 2013, which turned into a nine-year contract once both club options were exercised. As of March 31st of this year, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer was “very confident” a deal would get done and Rizzo had used the word “optimistic.” The Cubs’ initial offer was reportedly for five years and $70MM, while Rizzo sought something closer to Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM deal. An agreement was not reached, and once the Cubs fell out of contention, Rizzo was traded to the Yankees.
At age 32, Rizzo’s play seems more solid than spectacular. He’s posted a 109 wRC+ in 819 plate appearances since 2020, roughly on par with Josh Bell, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, and Eric Hosmer. To sign Rizzo to a deal well beyond our projection would require placing a large value on intangibles, or expecting him to defy the aging curve and return to his 2019 form. Still, Rizzo is free of a qualifying offer and faces limited competition at first base unless Freddie Freeman and/or Brandon Belt make it to the market. Many clubs could find a spot for him, especially if the NL DH adds flexibility.
22. Anthony DeSclafani. Three years, $42MM.
TD: Mets / SA: Mariners / AF: Cardinals
DeSclafani had put together some solid 3-WAR type seasons for the Reds in 2015 and 2019, but he scuffled in 2020 with a right teres major strain that limited him to seven starts. The Giants jumped in with a one-year, $6MM contract and a rotation job. The result was a 3.17 ERA that ranked 11th in the NL among those with at least 150 innings.
In five of the past seven seasons, DeSclafani has started at least 20 games — the exceptions being the shortened 2020 season and 2017, when he missed the season due to a ligament issue in his right elbow (but notably avoided surgery). In four of his five mostly healthy seasons, “Disco” has pitched to a 4.05 ERA or better.
DeSclafani’s skills and history suggest he’s more of a 4.00 ERA type pitcher than the 3.17 level he showed in 2021, but that would still be plenty valuable for clubs seeking mid-rotation innings at a reasonable price. We discussed whether a four-year deal was possible and agreed it’s not out of the question, but we see a three-year deal as the likelier outcome.
Though Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt this offseason and Kevin Gausman last winter, he chose not to take the plunge on DeSclafani. We believe DeSclafani would have accepted, and perhaps the Giants didn’t want to tie up that hefty one-year salary so early in the offseason. DeSclafani may yet return to the Giants, but he’s now free to explore the market without being hampered by the QO. The Tigers, Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Nationals, and Cubs are among the other teams that make sense.
23. Justin Verlander. Two years, $40MM.
TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Braves
Like Scherzer, Verlander is a future Hall of Famer likely to sign a high-AAV, short-term deal. The difference is that Verlander, 39 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020. He missed almost the entirety of that season and all of 2021, but won the AL Cy Young award in 2019 and finished second in 2018.
Verlander will be 17 months from his surgery in March of next year, so he should be able to have a normal Spring Training (barring a lockout). Even if his 220 inning days are behind him, Verlander will appeal greatly to contenders. Though Verlander has pitched only six innings since 2020, the Astros issued him a qualifying offer. In October, Astros owner Jim Crane suggested Verlander will be “looking for a contract of some length,” implying perhaps a two-year pact. If things somehow don’t work out between Verlander and the Astros, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could be interested.
24. Avisail Garcia. Three years, $36MM.
TD: Royals / SA: Marlins / AF: Rockies
Garcia, 30, put together a solid season in 2021. He posted a 115 wRC+ with a career-best 29 home runs in 135 games as the Brewers’ right fielder. Defensively, he seems to be at least average, depending on your metric of choice. Garcia has 88th percentile sprint speed and is very strong in most Statcast batting metrics. He’s a player who seems like he could have another level, but that was also true when he signed his two-year deal with the Brewers. Garcia could be a fit for the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Rockies if the Brewers don’t bring him back.
25. Jorge Soler. Three years, $36MM.
TD: Brewers / SA: Rockies / AF: Marlins
Soler defected from Cuba in 2011 and signed a nine-year, $30MM deal with the Cubs. He was a part of the Cubs’ 2016 championship team, but was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis after that season. In 2019, Soler shook off a long injury history to set the Royals’ franchise record with 48 home runs – perhaps in part because he played 107 games at DH and only 56 in the field. Soler played 752 innings in right field this year, his most in the field since 2015 – in part because the Royals traded him to the Braves at the deadline. He’s never been a good fielder, and rated as one of the game’s worst defensive right fielders this year.
Soler struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but from July 20th forward, he posted a 144 wRC+ that ranked 21st in all of baseball. Soler capped his season by winning the World Series MVP, crushing three big home runs against the Astros. 30 in February, Soler lights up Statcast and demonstrated his ceiling back in 2019, even if he played at replacement level overall this year. If the NL gets the DH, Soler could snag a three-year deal.
26. Alex Wood. Three years, $30MM.
TD: Mariners / SA: Nationals / AF: Twins
Wood, 31 in January, was a second round pick by the Braves out of the University of Georgia back in 2012. He was sent to the Dodgers in a three-team, 13-player swap at the 2015 trade deadline, and then moved to the Reds in another complicated trade in December 2018. However, Wood tallied only 48 1/3 frames from 2019-20, resulting in a pair of cheap one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers and Giants.
When healthy, Wood has always been effective. He made only seven starts for the 2019 Reds due to a back injury. He cracked the Dodgers’ rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but quickly went down for shoulder inflammation and pitched mostly in relief upon his return. For the Giants, though, Wood was healthy for the first time since 2018, making 27 starts despite starting on the IL due to a March back procedure and later missing time due to COVID-19. Wood’s 26 K% ranks sixth among free agent starters, and he’ll cost a lot less than those ranked ahead of him. He’s also free of a qualifying offer, but that’s true of the other mid-range starters as well.
27. Steven Matz. Three years, $27MM.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Angels / AF: Nationals
Matz, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted out of high school by the Mets in the second round in 2009. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2010. Matz finally debuted for the Mets in 2015, pitching well enough to get the ball in Game 4 of the World Series. He became a rotation mainstay in the four years that followed, pitching fairly well aside from a 2017 season mostly lost to elbow woes. Matz made 60 starts with a 4.09 ERA from 2018-19, but was yanked from the rotation in 2020 after five rough starts. Considered a possible non-tender candidate after that season, Matz was instead signed and shipped to the Blue Jays in a trade.
Matz pitched well for the Jays, with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. His strikeout and walk rates were roughly league average. Only six left-handed starters threw harder than Matz’s 94.5 miles per hour average this year, so it’s possible suitors will aim to unlock another level of strikeout ability in him. Matz declined a reported multiyear proposal from the Blue Jays, who declined to make him a qualifying offer. Other clubs seeking an middle of the rotation arm like Matz might include the Tigers, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, and Giants.
28. Kendall Graveman. Three years, $27MM.
TD: Astros / SA: Royals / AF: Dodgers
Graveman, 31 in December, was drafted in the eighth round by the Blue Jays out of Mississippi State back in 2013. He joined the A’s in the Josh Donaldson trade the following year. Graveman served as a groundball-heavy, pitch-to-contact starter for the A’s from 2015-17, putting up a 4.11 ERA in 71 starts. Graveman lost his rotation job early in the 2018 season, and then went down for Tommy John surgery in July of that year. The A’s cut him loose, and the Cubs signed him with an eye on the 2020 season.
The Cubs chose to decline the option, leading to a $1.5MM deal with the Mariners for ’20. Graveman’s 11 appearances that year didn’t impress, but his fastball ticked up close to 95 out of the bullpen and he figured out a four-seam fastball during quarantine. A benign bone tumor was discovered in Graveman’s spine, but he was able to pitch with it. Graveman’s club option was declined again after the season, but this time he re-upped with the Mariners for $1.25MM for ’21.
Graveman put it all together for the Mariners this year, posting a 0.82 ERA and 28.1 K% before the club surprisingly traded him to the division-rival Astros for Abraham Toro and Joe Smith. Though Graveman’s control slipped with the Astros, he still performed capably and assumed a key role in their bullpen through the postseason. Graveman’s skills form a rare combination, as only three relievers this year can boast of a 96 mile per hour fastball, 27 K%, and 54% groundball rate. He may be the best setup option on the market, and should draw interest from just about every contender.
29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals
Barely a year after spending most of his season catching for the High-A Inland Empire 66ers, Kenley Jansen made his MLB debut as a hard-throwing reliever at Dodger Stadium against the Mets in 2010. Armed with little more than a devastating cutter, Jansen began a run of domination out of the Dodgers’ bullpen that resulted in a 2.08 ERA over his first eight seasons. In January 2017, after fielding even larger offers from other teams, Jansen-re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM deal that still stands as the second-largest ever given to a reliever.
Though still very good, Jansen started to waver a bit in 2018, posting career-worsts in ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate. He blew saves in Games 3 and 4 of the 2018 World Series, undergoing heart surgery in the offseason. Jansen battled through eight blown saves in 2019, posting a career-worst 3.71 ERA. After Jansen blew the save in Game 4 of the 2020 Series, manager Dave Roberts called on Blake Treinen and Julio Urias to close out Games 5 and 6.
Jansen began reducing his cutter usage in 2019 after typically throwing the pitch 85-90% of the time. He was down to 58% in ’21, to solid results. While Jansen’s ERA fell back down to 2.22 and was unscored upon in seven postseason innings, Jansen’s 12.9 BB% was the worst he’s had in a full season. Now 34 years old, the second act of Jansen’s career figures to be respectable, if not dominant. Jansen is ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one previously. If the Dodgers decide to finally move on, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, and Padres could be potential suitors.
30. Mark Canha. Two years, $24MM.
TD: Guardians / SA: Guardians / AF: Guardians
Canha, 33 in February, was drafted in the seventh round out of UC Berkeley in 2010 by the Marlins. The Rockies took him in the 2014 Rule 5 draft, immediately trading him to the A’s. He was able to hit well enough as a rookie in 2015 to stick on the roster, but required season-ending hip surgery in May of the following season. Canha was up and down in the Majors in 2017 and underwent wrist surgery after the season.
In 2018, Canha was finally able to stick in the bigs for good, posting a 115 wRC+. His best season was 2019, when he hit 26 home runs for a 146 wRC+ and four wins above replacement in 126 games. Canha has a strong .366 on-base percentage since 2020, but has slugged only .393 – perhaps the result of playing his home games at RingCentral Coliseum. The lack of power and hard hits does show up in Canha’s Statcast metrics. Defensively, Canha is able to play all three outfield positions capably.
For a team seeking to bolster its OBP, Canha is a strong addition who may be limited to a two-year term given his age. The Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants could be fits.
31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets
Among free agents, only Marcus Semien hit more home runs than Seager’s 35 this year. Seager may have sold out for power, however, as he posted a career-worst strikeout rate and batting average. Seager still probably profiles as a 110 wRC+ type bat, and the 34-year-old plays above-average defense. Drafted by the Mariners in the third round in 2009 out of UNC, Seager has played 11 seasons with the club due to a seven-year extension signed in December 2014. The free agent market is short on regular third basemen this year, and the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Mets could make sense.
32. Michael Conforto. One year, $20MM.
TD: Braves / SA: White Sox / AF: Brewers
Conforto, 29 in March, seemed primed for a large contract heading into the 2021 season. Instead, he tumbled to a 106 wRC+, his worst mark since 2016. In the four years prior, Conforto stood at 133, 18th in baseball among those with at least 1,500 plate appearances during that time. The longtime Met can play either outfield corner, and can be used in center in a pinch. In general, his right field defense has been average.
There will be teams that happily make Conforto a multiyear offer, crediting his long track record as one of the game’s better left-handed hitters over his mediocre 2021. The guess here is that Conforto will turn down the qualifying offer, find the multiyear offers insufficient, and sign a comparable one-year deal with a new team to rebuild value and shake off the QO. Yasmani Grandal and Marcell Ozuna followed this model successfully. If the Mets don’t hammer something out with Conforto, he could fit with the Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Padres, Guardians, and Royals.
TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Braves
As the longtime face of the Cubs, it seemed like the club would hammer out an extension with Rizzo even if they intended to take a step back in 2022. He’d already signed a seven-year extension in 2013, which turned into a nine-year contract once both club options were exercised. As of March 31st of this year, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer was “very confident” a deal would get done and Rizzo had used the word “optimistic.” The Cubs’ initial offer was reportedly for five years and $70MM, while Rizzo sought something closer to Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM deal. An agreement was not reached, and once the Cubs fell out of contention, Rizzo was traded to the Yankees.
At age 32, Rizzo’s play seems more solid than spectacular. He’s posted a 109 wRC+ in 819 plate appearances since 2020, roughly on par with Josh Bell, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, and Eric Hosmer. To sign Rizzo to a deal well beyond our projection would require placing a large value on intangibles, or expecting him to defy the aging curve and return to his 2019 form. Still, Rizzo is free of a qualifying offer and faces limited competition at first base unless Freddie Freeman and/or Brandon Belt make it to the market. Many clubs could find a spot for him, especially if the NL DH adds flexibility.
22. Anthony DeSclafani. Three years, $42MM.
TD: Mets / SA: Mariners / AF: Cardinals
DeSclafani had put together some solid 3-WAR type seasons for the Reds in 2015 and 2019, but he scuffled in 2020 with a right teres major strain that limited him to seven starts. The Giants jumped in with a one-year, $6MM contract and a rotation job. The result was a 3.17 ERA that ranked 11th in the NL among those with at least 150 innings.
In five of the past seven seasons, DeSclafani has started at least 20 games — the exceptions being the shortened 2020 season and 2017, when he missed the season due to a ligament issue in his right elbow (but notably avoided surgery). In four of his five mostly healthy seasons, “Disco” has pitched to a 4.05 ERA or better.
DeSclafani’s skills and history suggest he’s more of a 4.00 ERA type pitcher than the 3.17 level he showed in 2021, but that would still be plenty valuable for clubs seeking mid-rotation innings at a reasonable price. We discussed whether a four-year deal was possible and agreed it’s not out of the question, but we see a three-year deal as the likelier outcome.
Though Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt this offseason and Kevin Gausman last winter, he chose not to take the plunge on DeSclafani. We believe DeSclafani would have accepted, and perhaps the Giants didn’t want to tie up that hefty one-year salary so early in the offseason. DeSclafani may yet return to the Giants, but he’s now free to explore the market without being hampered by the QO. The Tigers, Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Nationals, and Cubs are among the other teams that make sense.
23. Justin Verlander. Two years, $40MM.
TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Braves
Like Scherzer, Verlander is a future Hall of Famer likely to sign a high-AAV, short-term deal. The difference is that Verlander, 39 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020. He missed almost the entirety of that season and all of 2021, but won the AL Cy Young award in 2019 and finished second in 2018.
Verlander will be 17 months from his surgery in March of next year, so he should be able to have a normal Spring Training (barring a lockout). Even if his 220 inning days are behind him, Verlander will appeal greatly to contenders. Though Verlander has pitched only six innings since 2020, the Astros issued him a qualifying offer. In October, Astros owner Jim Crane suggested Verlander will be “looking for a contract of some length,” implying perhaps a two-year pact. If things somehow don’t work out between Verlander and the Astros, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could be interested.
24. Avisail Garcia. Three years, $36MM.
TD: Royals / SA: Marlins / AF: Rockies
Garcia, 30, put together a solid season in 2021. He posted a 115 wRC+ with a career-best 29 home runs in 135 games as the Brewers’ right fielder. Defensively, he seems to be at least average, depending on your metric of choice. Garcia has 88th percentile sprint speed and is very strong in most Statcast batting metrics. He’s a player who seems like he could have another level, but that was also true when he signed his two-year deal with the Brewers. Garcia could be a fit for the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Rockies if the Brewers don’t bring him back.
25. Jorge Soler. Three years, $36MM.
TD: Brewers / SA: Rockies / AF: Marlins
Soler defected from Cuba in 2011 and signed a nine-year, $30MM deal with the Cubs. He was a part of the Cubs’ 2016 championship team, but was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis after that season. In 2019, Soler shook off a long injury history to set the Royals’ franchise record with 48 home runs – perhaps in part because he played 107 games at DH and only 56 in the field. Soler played 752 innings in right field this year, his most in the field since 2015 – in part because the Royals traded him to the Braves at the deadline. He’s never been a good fielder, and rated as one of the game’s worst defensive right fielders this year.
Soler struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but from July 20th forward, he posted a 144 wRC+ that ranked 21st in all of baseball. Soler capped his season by winning the World Series MVP, crushing three big home runs against the Astros. 30 in February, Soler lights up Statcast and demonstrated his ceiling back in 2019, even if he played at replacement level overall this year. If the NL gets the DH, Soler could snag a three-year deal.
26. Alex Wood. Three years, $30MM.
TD: Mariners / SA: Nationals / AF: Twins
Wood, 31 in January, was a second round pick by the Braves out of the University of Georgia back in 2012. He was sent to the Dodgers in a three-team, 13-player swap at the 2015 trade deadline, and then moved to the Reds in another complicated trade in December 2018. However, Wood tallied only 48 1/3 frames from 2019-20, resulting in a pair of cheap one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers and Giants.
When healthy, Wood has always been effective. He made only seven starts for the 2019 Reds due to a back injury. He cracked the Dodgers’ rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but quickly went down for shoulder inflammation and pitched mostly in relief upon his return. For the Giants, though, Wood was healthy for the first time since 2018, making 27 starts despite starting on the IL due to a March back procedure and later missing time due to COVID-19. Wood’s 26 K% ranks sixth among free agent starters, and he’ll cost a lot less than those ranked ahead of him. He’s also free of a qualifying offer, but that’s true of the other mid-range starters as well.
27. Steven Matz. Three years, $27MM.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Angels / AF: Nationals
Matz, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted out of high school by the Mets in the second round in 2009. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2010. Matz finally debuted for the Mets in 2015, pitching well enough to get the ball in Game 4 of the World Series. He became a rotation mainstay in the four years that followed, pitching fairly well aside from a 2017 season mostly lost to elbow woes. Matz made 60 starts with a 4.09 ERA from 2018-19, but was yanked from the rotation in 2020 after five rough starts. Considered a possible non-tender candidate after that season, Matz was instead signed and shipped to the Blue Jays in a trade.
Matz pitched well for the Jays, with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. His strikeout and walk rates were roughly league average. Only six left-handed starters threw harder than Matz’s 94.5 miles per hour average this year, so it’s possible suitors will aim to unlock another level of strikeout ability in him. Matz declined a reported multiyear proposal from the Blue Jays, who declined to make him a qualifying offer. Other clubs seeking an middle of the rotation arm like Matz might include the Tigers, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, and Giants.
28. Kendall Graveman. Three years, $27MM.
TD: Astros / SA: Royals / AF: Dodgers
Graveman, 31 in December, was drafted in the eighth round by the Blue Jays out of Mississippi State back in 2013. He joined the A’s in the Josh Donaldson trade the following year. Graveman served as a groundball-heavy, pitch-to-contact starter for the A’s from 2015-17, putting up a 4.11 ERA in 71 starts. Graveman lost his rotation job early in the 2018 season, and then went down for Tommy John surgery in July of that year. The A’s cut him loose, and the Cubs signed him with an eye on the 2020 season.
The Cubs chose to decline the option, leading to a $1.5MM deal with the Mariners for ’20. Graveman’s 11 appearances that year didn’t impress, but his fastball ticked up close to 95 out of the bullpen and he figured out a four-seam fastball during quarantine. A benign bone tumor was discovered in Graveman’s spine, but he was able to pitch with it. Graveman’s club option was declined again after the season, but this time he re-upped with the Mariners for $1.25MM for ’21.
Graveman put it all together for the Mariners this year, posting a 0.82 ERA and 28.1 K% before the club surprisingly traded him to the division-rival Astros for Abraham Toro and Joe Smith. Though Graveman’s control slipped with the Astros, he still performed capably and assumed a key role in their bullpen through the postseason. Graveman’s skills form a rare combination, as only three relievers this year can boast of a 96 mile per hour fastball, 27 K%, and 54% groundball rate. He may be the best setup option on the market, and should draw interest from just about every contender.
29. Kenley Jansen. Two years, $26MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Royals
Barely a year after spending most of his season catching for the High-A Inland Empire 66ers, Kenley Jansen made his MLB debut as a hard-throwing reliever at Dodger Stadium against the Mets in 2010. Armed with little more than a devastating cutter, Jansen began a run of domination out of the Dodgers’ bullpen that resulted in a 2.08 ERA over his first eight seasons. In January 2017, after fielding even larger offers from other teams, Jansen-re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM deal that still stands as the second-largest ever given to a reliever.
Though still very good, Jansen started to waver a bit in 2018, posting career-worsts in ERA, strikeout rate, and home run rate. He blew saves in Games 3 and 4 of the 2018 World Series, undergoing heart surgery in the offseason. Jansen battled through eight blown saves in 2019, posting a career-worst 3.71 ERA. After Jansen blew the save in Game 4 of the 2020 Series, manager Dave Roberts called on Blake Treinen and Julio Urias to close out Games 5 and 6.
Jansen began reducing his cutter usage in 2019 after typically throwing the pitch 85-90% of the time. He was down to 58% in ’21, to solid results. While Jansen’s ERA fell back down to 2.22 and was unscored upon in seven postseason innings, Jansen’s 12.9 BB% was the worst he’s had in a full season. Now 34 years old, the second act of Jansen’s career figures to be respectable, if not dominant. Jansen is ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one previously. If the Dodgers decide to finally move on, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, and Padres could be potential suitors.
30. Mark Canha. Two years, $24MM.
TD: Guardians / SA: Guardians / AF: Guardians
Canha, 33 in February, was drafted in the seventh round out of UC Berkeley in 2010 by the Marlins. The Rockies took him in the 2014 Rule 5 draft, immediately trading him to the A’s. He was able to hit well enough as a rookie in 2015 to stick on the roster, but required season-ending hip surgery in May of the following season. Canha was up and down in the Majors in 2017 and underwent wrist surgery after the season.
In 2018, Canha was finally able to stick in the bigs for good, posting a 115 wRC+. His best season was 2019, when he hit 26 home runs for a 146 wRC+ and four wins above replacement in 126 games. Canha has a strong .366 on-base percentage since 2020, but has slugged only .393 – perhaps the result of playing his home games at RingCentral Coliseum. The lack of power and hard hits does show up in Canha’s Statcast metrics. Defensively, Canha is able to play all three outfield positions capably.
For a team seeking to bolster its OBP, Canha is a strong addition who may be limited to a two-year term given his age. The Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants could be fits.
31. Kyle Seager. Two years, $24MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Mets
Among free agents, only Marcus Semien hit more home runs than Seager’s 35 this year. Seager may have sold out for power, however, as he posted a career-worst strikeout rate and batting average. Seager still probably profiles as a 110 wRC+ type bat, and the 34-year-old plays above-average defense. Drafted by the Mariners in the third round in 2009 out of UNC, Seager has played 11 seasons with the club due to a seven-year extension signed in December 2014. The free agent market is short on regular third basemen this year, and the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Mets could make sense.
32. Michael Conforto. One year, $20MM.
TD: Braves / SA: White Sox / AF: Brewers
Conforto, 29 in March, seemed primed for a large contract heading into the 2021 season. Instead, he tumbled to a 106 wRC+, his worst mark since 2016. In the four years prior, Conforto stood at 133, 18th in baseball among those with at least 1,500 plate appearances during that time. The longtime Met can play either outfield corner, and can be used in center in a pinch. In general, his right field defense has been average.
There will be teams that happily make Conforto a multiyear offer, crediting his long track record as one of the game’s better left-handed hitters over his mediocre 2021. The guess here is that Conforto will turn down the qualifying offer, find the multiyear offers insufficient, and sign a comparable one-year deal with a new team to rebuild value and shake off the QO. Yasmani Grandal and Marcell Ozuna followed this model successfully. If the Mets don’t hammer something out with Conforto, he could fit with the Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Padres, Guardians, and Royals.
