The 2021 Major League Baseball Player Chatter, News and Fantasy Thread

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Bellinger gotta be a big bounce back candidate.

I think he's worth a gamble by the Dodgers especially on a 1 year deal. He was hurt most of last year and is still the same guy that slugged his way to an MVP season just two seasons ago. I think if he stays healthy Bellinger is going to regain his form.

Agreed, he's too good of a player to have another awful year.

[stevenash]

I think he's worth a gamble by the Dodgers especially on a 1 year deal. He was hurt most of last year and is still the same guy that slugged his way to an MVP season just two seasons ago. I think if he stays healthy Bellinger is going to regain his form.

Can't stomach the guy.

Having said that he's got too much overall talent not to bounce back.

[jrgum3]

Bellinger gotta be a big bounce back candidate.

I think he's worth a gamble by the Dodgers especially on a 1 year deal. He was hurt most of last year and is still the same guy that slugged his way to an MVP season just two seasons ago. I think if he stays healthy Bellinger is going to regain his form.

[Cross]

Bellinger gotta be a big bounce back candidate.

[EmpireMaker]

Outfielder Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year $17MM contract per ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel. This deal registers as a $900K raise on the player’s 2021 season. The deal was reached prior to the sport’s December 1 lockout, but was not officially announced due to the league’s mandate that prevents clubs from discussing player personnel.
The $17MM salary is quite a boon for a player coming off a season that was below replacement-level, as Bellinger slashed just .160/.240/.302 in 95 injury-plagued games. The Dodgers could have non-tendered Bellinger instead of paying such a handsome fee for a hopeful bounceback campaign, but are one of the few clubs in the league who have the payroll to support such a risk. Further, Bellinger’s salary isn’t guaranteed until he makes the team’s Opening Day roster, meaning there’s still time for the team to backpedal if they lose faith in their decision.
It’s not long ago that non-tendering Cody Bellinger would’ve seemed preposterous, considering Bellinger set an arbitration record after his MVP 2019 season. That .305/.406/.629 campaign is slipping further into the past, but the Dodgers were surely encouraged by Bellinger’s .353/.436/.471 showing this past postseason. The former-MVP can be controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

[jrgum3]

That surprises me at a few of the positions but it really shouldn't because more emphasis is put on hitting home runs these days and less on striking out and putting the ball in play.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

That is pretty pathetic.

[stevenash]

[Chi_archie]

Typically you want your better hitters in your lineup to be your corner infielders and outfielders. Usually they can hit but they're not always the best defenders. I was going to say Center Field but nowadays you want all your outfielders to have more than just speed and the ability to set the table. They're paid to drive in runs as well so Center Fielders are more than just speedsters now.

\

that is traditionally. and they aren't your best batting avg hitters. They've been boppers, until recently it was really rare to see a first basemen hit over .300

First base has taken a big drop off lately, and there aren't many young studs coming up to fill the ranks but more than ever as mentioned above, they are swining for the fences and not hitting for avg..

[jrgum3]

first base?

Typically you want your better hitters in your lineup to be your corner infielders and outfielders. Usually they can hit but they're not always the best defenders. I was going to say Center Field but nowadays you want all your outfielders to have more than just speed and the ability to set the table. They're paid to drive in runs as well so Center Fielders are more than just speedsters now.

[EmpireMaker]

There’s been plenty of speculation as to Carlos Correa’s next destination, and even as the lockout trudges on, some reporting on the interest he’s received to date. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and incumbent Astros were all reported to have contacted Correa prior to the lockout, and in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Tigers had put forth a ten-year offer worth $275MM — presumably prior to signing Javier Baez to his six-year, $140MM contract. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago wrote yesterday that while there’s mutual interest with the Cubs, the team is loath to commit the length of contract Correa is seeking.
The length of contract Correa is set upon will obviously play a large role in where he ultimately signs. If he’s set on a deal of ten (or more) years in length, the Cubs and Astros seem to be out of the question. If he eventually is willing to take a slightly shorter deal, presumably with a massive annual value, it could open the door a bit further. Some suitors may yet may ramp up their interest or pivot to Correa if they miss out on larger target (e.g. Braves and Freddie Freeman) or if the luxury tax threshold rises substantially in the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement.
Given that he’s hitting the market in advance of his age-27 season, it’s not a surprise to see Correa eyeing deals of ten-plus years in length. And, now that Corey Seager has inked a 10-year deal for $325MM — joining Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstops with contracts of 10 or more years — Correa is surely hopeful of adding his own name to that prestigious group (if not besting all three in terms of total guarantee).
If the Yankees indeed plan to sit out the market for top shortstops, as has been reported, that’s a sizable blow to Correa’s market. Add that the Dodgers have an excellent in-house option already in Trea Turner and may not want to add a second $300MM contract to the books alongside Mookie Betts, and Correa may have to drum up some interest from teams that haven’t been publicly linked to him just yet.
The Phillies have a need at shortstop but appear more focused on center field and the bullpen. The Mets don’t seem like a fit in terms of roster composition, but owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at a nearly unparalleled level. The Blue Jays reportedly pursued Seager before he signed in Texas; would they consider a legitimate pursuit of Correa in the wake of Marcus Semien’s departure? Could the Tigers follow the Rangers’ lead and shock baseball with a double-dip in the shortstop market? The Mariners haven’t been characterized as a suitor just yet, but they have the payroll space and are seeking an impact bat.
As the already slow news cycle winds down during the holiday season, let’s try to make our best guess both as to where Correa will sign and for how much in total dollars…

[FrozenMAN]

Florida Marlins 2003...pitching and clutch hitting...didn't have monster power and only gold ole Mike "1 Ball" Lowell had over 100 RBI's

Could also qualify my 97 Marlins as well as a small ball team with pitching and hitting vs power

2 TIME CHAMPS BABY!!
(those were the days lol)

[Cross]

Ball go far, team go far. You aren’t stringing together a bunch of base hits against today’s pitching and shifts very often. How many World Series champs or teams that have gone far in playoffs are winning with small ball??? I’ll wait.

[JMobile]

Cubs want Carlos Correa now

[stevenash]

Could give a shit about batting average though, ops where it’s at.

OBP I place more of a premium on that OBPS.

Would still rather see a higher OBP than a higher OBPS, unless the two are equal, than give me the power if the two are equal.

[Chi_archie]

Next to pitcher and catcher. What position has the lowest league batting avg

first base?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I just don't understand the new swing for the fences philosophy

me either it sucks but that is the way all sports have changed over the years...lack of fundamentals, noone wants to play small ball everyone wants the highlight reel plays(home runs, slam dunks etc)...

[Otters27]

I just don't understand the new swing for the fences philosophy

[jrgum3]

Could give a shit about batting average though, ops where it’s at.

Seems a lot of teams feel this way about their middle infielders as more and more second basemen and shortstop are hitting for power and driving in runs while hitting for low batting averages.

[EmpireMaker]

As expected, the Dodgers and Padres are the two teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold this past season. The Associated Press reports that Los Angeles will pay $32.65MM in fees, while the Padres’ tax penalty lands at a more modest $1.29MM. No other teams exceeded the threshold in 2021.
Neither the Dodgers nor the Padres exceeded the threshold in 2020. Under the terms of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, teams were only subject to escalating penalties for exceeding in consecutive years. Thus, both teams will be treated as first-time payors this offseason.
Teams are only subject to penalties on the dollars they spend above the threshold. The 2021 penalties for first-time payors checked in at 20% on every dollar between $210MM and $230MM, 32% on overages between $230MM and $250MM and 62.5% on each dollar spent above $250MM. CBT figures are calculated by summing the average annual values of all of a team’s player contracts (plus benefits), not by looking at a team’s actual payrolls in a given season.
As their hefty tax suggests, the Dodgers were by far the game’s biggest spender in 2021. Los Angeles’ final luxury tax number checked in at $285.6MM. (Their tax payment is calculated as the sum of $4MM on their overages between $210MM – $230MM, $6.4MM on their overages between $230MM – $250MM and $22.25MM on their overages above $250MM). The Dodgers flexed that financial might to build a star-studded roster that went to the NL Championship Series.
By exceeding $250MM, the Dodgers also accepted a minor hit in next year’s amateur draft. Teams that exceeded the highest tax threshold in the previous CBA saw their top choice moved back ten spots in the ensuing Rule 4 draft. Instead of picking 30th overall next season as originally scheduled, they’ll first select at pick No. 40.
While the Dodgers shattered the luxury mark, the Padres very narrowly exceeded the first threshold. Their final ledger checked in at $216.5MM, the highest mark in franchise history. San Diego’s financial cost for doing so is minuscule, but surpassing the threshold would be of more import were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a qualifying offer. Teams that pay any CBT penalties are subject to the highest levels of draft pick and international signing bonus forfeiture for signing qualified free agents. Exceeding the tax also reduces the compensation teams receive when one of their own qualified free agents signs elsewhere; this winter, the Dodgers received the lowest possible compensation (a pick after the fourth round) for watching Corey Seager depart.
As mentioned, the previous CBA contained escalating penalties for teams that exceeded the threshold in multiple consecutive years. It’s not clear whether that process will continue with the next CBA (or where the thresholds will land in the next CBA) but most high-revenue teams have occasionally determined to dip back under the threshold to “reset” their tax bracket and dodge escalating penalties.
That makes the Padres’ decision to narrowly exceed the threshold and potentially shoulder escalating penalties in future years a bit atypical. A handful of teams settled their spending limits just below the $210MM mark. According to the AP, each of the Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros ended with payrolls less than $5MM below the first tax threshold. They’ll each be first-time payors if they exceed that mark in 2022, with the Yankees and Astros resetting after exceeding the threshold in 2020. (The Cubs also exceeded the threshold in 2020 but didn’t come especially close to $210MM in 2021).
The AP also reports that overall spending on players took a step back. The combined tally of all thirty teams’ luxury tax payrolls this past season tallied $4.52 billion, down from the $4.71 billion teams spent in 2019. That’s not entirely surprising on the heels of a 2020 campaign with essentially no gate revenues, although it’s the lowest overall expenditures on players since 2016’s $4.51 billion.

[Cross]

Could give a shit about batting average though, ops where it’s at.

[JMobile]

Next to pitcher and catcher. What position has the lowest league batting avg

Second base. Always the little guy

[stevenash]

Next to pitcher and catcher. What position has the lowest league batting avg

Shortstop.

[Otters27]

Next to pitcher and catcher. What position has the lowest league batting avg

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I feel like Hosmer going to be a Cub this year. Praying we get a sweet prospect also.

Love the idea, glad you're coming around!

[Cross]

I feel like Hosmer going to be a Cub this year. Praying we get a sweet prospect also.

[EmpireMaker]

Free agent utilityman Josh Harrison fielded multiple offers from teams before the institution of the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. As is to be expected given Harrison’s skillset, Nicholson-Smith suggests different clubs have indicated they’d deploy the 34-year-old in different roles depending on team need. This past season, he started games at six positions — second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield spots, with the bulk of that work coming at second and third base.
Harrison is coming off a decent season split between the Nationals and A’s. The right-handed hitter posted a .279/.341/.400 line with eight home runs across 558 plate appearances, numbers that check in a touch above the league average by measure of wRC+. While he didn’t draw many walks or hit for much power, Harrison’s minuscule 13.4% strikeout rate enabled him to hit for a solid batting average. It’s worth noting, though, that the two-time All-Star’s production tailed off following the midseason trade that sent him to Oakland. After starting at a strong .294/.366/.434 clip across 359 plate appearances in Washington, Harrison hit only .254/.296/.341 over 199 trips to the dish in the Bay Area.
Some notes on other infield situations around the game:

• Mariners first baseman Evan White has fully recovered from the season-ending left hip surgery he underwent in mid-July and has begun some baseball activities, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. While a return to full health is an unequivocal positive, there’s still plenty of question about how productive White will be in 2022. After all, he’s already been supplanted on the depth chart by Ty France, who looks cemented as the regular first baseman following a .291/.368/.445 showing in 2021. White, who’s under contract through at least 2025 thanks to the pre-debut extension he signed in November 2019, owns only a .165/.235/.308 line across 306 career MLB plate appearances. The 25-year-old did win a Gold Glove award in 2020, but he’ll obviously need to be far more productive offensively to earn everyday playing time. Divish writes that some within the organization feel White could benefit from more time at Triple-A, and he does still have all three minor league option years remaining. He’s expected to see some outfield time in Spring Training to broaden his defensive versatility, although the bigger question figures to be his form at the plate once gameplay resumes.
• As part of a reader mailbag, Alec Lewis of the Athletic suggests the Royals could attempt to find a taker for Carlos Santana coming out of the lockout. That’d assuredly require some creativity — including cash, taking back an undesirable contract as part of the trade, including a prospect of note, etc. — given how Santana performed in 2021. The generally reliable veteran hit only .214/.319/.342 over 659 plate appearances, easily the worst production of his career. The switch-hitter continued to avoid strikeouts (15.5%) and draw plenty of walks (13.1%), but his results on contact cratered. Santana is guaranteed $10.5MM in 2022, the final season of a two-year deal. Kansas City has first base prospect Nick Pratto on the doorstep of the majors after combining for a .265/.385/.602 line between the minors’ top two levels. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Pratto eventually starts to see playing time at Santana’s expense even if Kansas City doesn’t find a way to pull off a trade this winter.

[stevenash]

Big mistake if Padres trade Cronenworth.

Good "Swiss Army Knife" players like that are a commodity.
It would behoove SD to keep him.

Guys like Cronenworth, Carpenter, Fletcher, Whit, Chris Taylor... are hard to find.

[Cross]

Crone worth a solid player for sure.

[jrgum3]

Big mistake if Padres trade Cronenworth.

Agreed Cronenworth showed with his versatility that he would be a valuable asset to any club so the Padres would be smart to keep him around.

[JMobile]

The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards. The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.
Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities. The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022. It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.
As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll. Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary. Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).
As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.” Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant. While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.
There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer. The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.
The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden. The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention. With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.

Big mistake if Padres trade Cronenworth.

[EmpireMaker]

The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards. The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.
Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities. The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022. It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.
As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll. Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary. Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).
As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.” Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant. While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.
There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer. The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.
The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden. The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention. With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.

[JMobile]

Showalter usually goes to the playoffs but that's it. Just shows up

[stevenash]

Wow, Mets going to look really bad when they suck again.

Which is pretty much every other year.

[Otters27]

No good pitcher in their right mind will play there.

Mike Hampton went there to die. But he hit 7 home runs in one year