The 2021 Major League Baseball Player Chatter, News and Fantasy Thread
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Giants will clinch this weekend because the Dodgers will lose at least 1 to the Brew Crew and even if they don't I think the Giants get 2 out of 3 from the Padres to finally lock up the division.Leave a comment:
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The Yankees announced that first baseman Luke Voit is landing back on the 10-day injured list with left knee inflammation. Reliever Albert Abreu is up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to take his active roster spot.
Voit has been plagued by injuries for much of this season, with the left knee particularly problematic. He began the year on the IL after tearing the meniscus in the area. That initial stint cost him the first five weeks of the year, and he missed three weeks between July and August due to recurring inflammation. (Voit also missed time in May and June because of an oblique strain).
The series of health issues limited Voit to 241 plate appearances in a regular season that has now officially been brought to a close. His .239/.328/.437 line still checks in around 12 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+, but it’s a significant drop-off from Voit’s first few seasons in pinstripes. The slugger entered this season with a .279/.372/.543 mark in 892 plate appearances as a Yankee, including a .277/.338/.610 line with a league-best 22 home runs in last year’s shortened season.
It seems likely the persistent health troubles impacted Voit’s productivity even when he was well enough to take the field. New York acquired Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs at the trade deadline to help cover for Voit’s health question marks, but the front office will need to decide how comfortable they are in Voit’s ability to return to his prior form moving forward. Rizzo is slated to hit free agency this offseason, while Voit will be entering his second of four years of arbitration eligibility. Whether the Yankees are comfortable enough with Voit’s knee to allow Rizzo to sign elsewhere remains to be seen.
In the interim, the Yankees will continue to pencil Rizzo in at first base with Giancarlo Stanton serving as the primary designated hitter. New York enters play tonight one game up on the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot in the American League, a game and a half clear of the Mariners (the closest team just outside the current playoff picture). The Yankees didn’t provide a timetable for Voit’s return, so it’s possible he makes it back at some point during a potential playoff run. To give him that opportunity, the club will need to lock down a postseason spot and win the Wild Card game without his contributions.Leave a comment:
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Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock is in the midst of one of his best seasons, having posted an excellent .301/.360/.532 batting line with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and nine stolen bases. That production would position the 33-year-old as one of the best outfielders on the free-agent market this winter, but MLBTR has confirmed that Pollock will fall just a few plate appearances shy of the threshold necessary to trigger an opt-out clause in his deal.
Pollock’s contract, signed in Jan. 2019, was a four-year, $55MM deal that covered the 2019-22 seasons with a player option for a fifth year in 2023. However, the contract also allowed Pollock to opt out of the 2022 season and receive a $5MM buyout if he hit one of two plate appearance milestones: 1450 plate appearances combined from 2019-21 or 1000 combined from 2020-2021.
Last year’s pandemic-shortened season threw a wrench into vesting clauses such as this one, but the league and the players association agreed to prorate plate appearances and innings pitched for the purpose of calculations such as this one. Pollock’s 210 plate appearances last season are thus multiplied by 2.7, meaning they account for 567 plate appearances toward that threshold. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored this possibility when Pollock returned from the IL last week.)
Pollock needed 433 plate appearances in 2021 to unlock that right to opt out, but he’s currently at 408 plate appearances with just four games to play. It’s nearly unfathomable that he’d manage to accumulate 25 trips to the plate in a span of four games. As such, it seems that a pair of hamstring strains for Pollock this season — one in his left leg in May and another in his right leg earlier this month — will cost him the opportunity to return to the open market in advance of his age-34 season.
Pollock will now be under contract for the 2022 season on a $10MM salary, after which he’ll have a $10MM player option or a $5MM buyout. To that extent, he’ll still control his own fate next offseason, but he’ll be doing so when he’s a year older and potentially coming off a weaker performance at the plate. Pollock’s contract does allow him to boost the value of that $10MM option as well; it’d increase by $1MM for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances next season.Leave a comment:
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Padres can beat the Giants for the last games of the season so that means the Dodgers can get the NL WestLeave a comment:
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I will send it soon Nasher, no problem. Dodgers late rally last night took that Bitcoin straight out of my hands!!!Leave a comment:
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No rush on payment, whenever you have it is fine.
200 points will not make or break me, hardly.
(I do need to renew in October though)Leave a comment:
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On the positive side of the ledger, I had your Royals tonight scoring 10 runs so I think that should get me $50 in Bitcoin! Well done on our side bet, Nostradamus!!Leave a comment:
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Tommy Pham’s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.
Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.
In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.
“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”
Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.
Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”
From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.
It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.
Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.
“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”
[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]
That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.
Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.
Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.Leave a comment:
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Mr. Cross sir.
The best the Cubs can do is 72-90, the worst the Royals can do is 72-90.
Since I have KC +0.5 wins in our friendly side bet, I do believe you are how do they say "mathematically eliminated"Leave a comment:
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The Jays are in tough vs the Yankees and Ryu is not as good as last year. It will be exciting to watch the last 6 Jays games of the season.Leave a comment:
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The Giants have announced that an x-ray revealed a fracture in the left thumb of first baseman Brandon Belt, as relayed by several reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Belt was hit on the thumb by a pitch in yesterday’s game and was pulled a short time later. The expected recovery timeline is still unknown right now, as Belt still plans on more meetings with doctors, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. However, for comparison’s sake, both J.T. Realmuto and Joey Votto suffered a fractured thumb earlier this year and missed about a month before returning to action.
This is awful timing for Belt and the Giants, both because the postseason begins in a week and because Belt had been on such a tear of late. Since returning from a knee injury August 5th, Belt’s slash line is an absurd .297/.394/.690, hitting 18 home runs in that stretch. That production is 83% better than league average, according to wRC+. After three straight years of lagging production from 2017 to 2019, Belt has essentially been on fire the past two years. Since the start of the 2020 season, in 148 games, his line is .285/.393/.595. His wRC+ of 163 in that time is the third-best in the majors among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.
As for the team, they are already guaranteed a playoff spot, though which kind is still to be determined. They are currently two games ahead of the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West, with each team having six games remaining. In the absence of Belt, they will likely turn to Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr., who have each seen some time at first base this year. Darin Ruf could be an option down the road, but he himself was just placed on the IL on Thursday with an oblique injury. Those three all have good numbers this year, but the loss of Belt’s potent bat is certainly a blow to the offense, as it would be to any team’s.
It’s also unfortunate timing for Belt, career-wise, as he’s heading into free agency in just over a month. This injury could deny him the ability to add to his postseason ledger, which already includes a pair of World Series titles with the Giants in 2012 and 2014. Although, based on the incredible numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons, he should still garner plenty of interest on the open market, even if he’s unable to make another appearance this year.Leave a comment:
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Yankees struggling vs LH, while Ryu is having a rough September. Last game vs New York he pitched 3 hits over 6 innings. Taillon will need some sliders and curves, Jays feast on steady RH fastballs.Leave a comment:
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The Angels biggest problem has always been a lack of pitching. They always sign hitters to ridculous contracts and they don't have the pitching to compete because of it. These are some interesting comments by your teams biggest stars in Trout and Ohtani so their offseason will be one of the most interesting to keep an eye on.Leave a comment:
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The Giants have announced that an x-ray revealed a fracture in the left thumb of first baseman Brandon Belt, as relayed by several reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Belt was hit on the thumb by a pitch in yesterday’s game and was pulled a short time later. The expected recovery timeline is still unknown right now, as Belt still plans on more meetings with doctors, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. However, for comparison’s sake, both J.T. Realmuto and Joey Votto suffered a fractured thumb earlier this year and missed about a month before returning to action.
This is awful timing for Belt and the Giants, both because the postseason begins in a week and because Belt had been on such a tear of late. Since returning from a knee injury August 5th, Belt’s slash line is an absurd .297/.394/.690, hitting 18 home runs in that stretch. That production is 83% better than league average, according to wRC+. After three straight years of lagging production from 2017 to 2019, Belt has essentially been on fire the past two years. Since the start of the 2020 season, in 148 games, his line is .285/.393/.595. His wRC+ of 163 in that time is the third-best in the majors among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.
As for the team, they are already guaranteed a playoff spot, though which kind is still to be determined. They are currently two games ahead of the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West, with each team having six games remaining. In the absence of Belt, they will likely turn to Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr., who have each seen some time at first base this year. Darin Ruf could be an option down the road, but he himself was just placed on the IL on Thursday with an oblique injury. Those three all have good numbers this year, but the loss of Belt’s potent bat is certainly a blow to the offense, as it would be to any team’s.
It’s also unfortunate timing for Belt, career-wise, as he’s heading into free agency in just over a month. This injury could deny him the ability to add to his postseason ledger, which already includes a pair of World Series titles with the Giants in 2012 and 2014. Although, based on the incredible numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons, he should still garner plenty of interest on the open market, even if he’s unable to make another appearance this year.Leave a comment:
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