I believe Scherzer and Buehler pitch game 6 and 7(if needed) on proper rest, this is not over.
Braves needed to end it last night, now they are thinking about blowing a 3-1 series lead again.
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Infielder Freddy Galvis makes no secret about his desire to return to the Phillies in an interview with Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As Breen explores, Galvis had an immediate impact on the clubhouse and team morale and was generally beloved and viewed as a veteran leader — both by teammates who’d played with him during his original run with the club and by newcomers who knew little of Galvis before the Phils acquired him from the Orioles this past July. Fellow utilityman Brad Miller tells Breen he was caught by surprise to see the clubhouse excitement after the trade was announced, but he quickly understood why. “It’s the epitome of being a pro,” Miller said. “Like we say it all the time, ‘That guys a pro’ or ‘He’s a good teammate’ or ‘He’s a winner.’ All these little terms. That’s what it comes down to when you’re a major-league baseball player is having those traits. He’s prepared for everything.”
Galvis wouldn’t be a candidate to start for the Phillies, but he could serve as a versatile infield piece and perhaps a bridge to prospect Bryson Stott — if the Phillies don’t pursue one of the higher-profile names on the free-agent market this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski plainly acknowledged the need to improve at shortstop after the season and said veteran Didi Gregorius is not assured the starting job in 2022.
More out of Philly…
- Newly hired hitting coach Kevin Long is already headed to the Phillies’ spring training complex in Clearwater, Fla., where he’ll get an early start on working with Alec Bohm, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly. Bohm, 25, looked well on his way to cementing himself as a mainstay in the heart of the Phillies’ order in 2020 when he hit .338/.400/.481 in 180 plate appearances as a rookie. He mustered only a .247/.305/.342 slash in 417 trips to the plate this season, however, and eventually found himself optioned to Triple-A. Long, previously the hitting coach for the Yankees, Mets and Nationals, notes that young players are “really, really important to big-market teams,” as they can offset the cost of high-priced free agents and arbitration-eligible players. Long calls Bohm “one of the best hitters in the league in 2020” and suggests that Bohm “is a big part of the Philadelphia Phillies and us winning a championship.” Dombrowski acknowledged at season’s end that Bohm probably won’t win any Gold Gloves at the hot corner (link via 97.3 ESPN) but can be a bat-first option for the team moving forward. “His key is he has to hit. If he hits well enough, you’ll live with the defensive aspect of it,” said Dombrowski.
- Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia took a look at the Phils’ upcoming arbitration class earlier this week, opining that Odúbel Herrera, Ronald Torreyes, Travis Jankowski, Roman Quinn and Andrew Knapp might all be cut loose this winter. None of Torreyes, Jankowski, Quinn or Knapp would cost much to bring back, but everyone in that group comes with performance and/or durability question marks. The Phils hold an $11.5MM club option on Herrera’s services for next season that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. Even if they decline the option, the Phillies could retain Herrera via arbitration, but his projected $11.6MM arb salary isn’t any more affordable (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). That indeed seems like a steep price for a player who hit a fine but unspectacular .260/.310/.416 over 492 plate appearances this past season. Herrera underperformed early in the 2019 season, then was suspended for the remainder of that year after violating MLB’s domestic violence policy. He didn’t play in 2020, but the Phillies brought him back to the majors in late April this year.
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The Dodgers falling short would mean that everything is right with the world again. Hopefully the Braves close it out Thursday but if they don't I think they get it done at home.Leave a comment:
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Justin Turner left tonight’s NLCS game four matchup against Atlanta with an apparent injury, as relayed by several reporters, including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Turner grounded into a double play in the bottom of the seventh inning and limped his way to first base, then didn’t return to the field for the top of the eighth.
It has been a frustrating series for the third baseman, as he has also been dealing with a neck injury of late that caused him to be held out of the starting lineup in game two. The severity of this new injury is unclear at this point, but this raises the specter of Turner’s season being over. There are, at most, three games remaining in the NLCS after tonight, which doesn’t leave him much time to convalesce before the World Series.
Losing Turner for any amount of time would be a blow to the Dodgers, as he has been one of their best and most-reliable hitters for eight straight seasons. From 2014 to 2021, he has been a mainstay of the lineup, with a batting average between .275 and .340 each year. His wRC+ has always been between 123 and 158 during that span. He was worth at least 3.3 fWAR in each of those seasons, except for the shortened 2020 campaign, where he put up 1.3 fWAR. In 2021, he slashed .278/.361/.471 for a wRC+ of 127 and 4.0 fWAR.
This year’s postseason has been a struggle for him, perhaps due to these underlying injuries. Going into tonight’s game, he was slashing just .097/.200/.194 through 35 plate appearances.Leave a comment:
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I have the need to take a shower every time I say this, but I have LA (series) in a two team parlay.
I didn't want to lay -193, I was OK with laying -100 in a two teamer though.
Probably the only bet I ever made that I'm happy with if it lost.
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Man I was so enjoying that Braves game until the 8th inning...Had the Braves hung on, it was pretty much over. Now the Dodgers have life and momentum
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The Mets stumbled down the stretch, dropping out of the playoff race with a disappointing final couple of months. That wasn’t the fault of their marquee trade deadline acquisition, though, as Javier Báez lived up to expectations. Acquired from the Cubs on deadline day, Báez hit a fantastic .299/.371/.515 with nine homers in 186 plate appearances for the Mets.
Báez seemingly made a strong impression in his couple of months in the organization, and Andy Martino of SNY suggests there’s a legitimate possibility he and the club agree to a long-term deal relatively early into the offseason, although he cautions that the club has not yet put forth a formal extension offer. A return to the Mets would mean Báez moving permanently to second base, as Francisco Lindor already has shortstop accounted for in Flushing for the next decade.
This summer, Báez already showed some willingness to move off shortstop in deference to Lindor. While he started his Mets’ tenure at short while Lindor was recovering from an oblique issue, Báez slid over to the keystone for the season’s final five weeks. Assuming he’s willing to play second base regularly moving forward, he’d likely be a plus defender at the position who’s more than capable of sliding back over to shortstop if injuries and/or rest days necessitate.
An early-offseason strike of this magnitude by the Mets would be quite a surprise, since the club’s new president of baseball operations is yet to be determined. Signing a marquee free agent to a significant contract before or almost immediately after the hiring of the team’s new baseball operations leader would be an odd decision, but Martino writes that Báez has commanded the respect of owner Steve Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson.
Not only were Mets’ higher-ups impressed by Báez’s performance, according to Martino, they were also struck by his accountability for the now-infamous “thumbs down” saga. With the team reeling after the trade deadline, discontentment mounted and the Mets often faced plenty of criticism from their own fans. In response, some Mets players — Báez included — used a “thumbs down” celebration after certain plays to symbolically return the boos to their own fanbase. The behavior led to a stern rebuke from Alderson and a needless controversy, but Martino writes that Báez’s willingness to accept responsibility for the situation allowed the sides to put the matter behind them.
Celebration controversy aside, it’s easy to understand why Báez’s play apparently made such a strong impression on Cohen and Alderson. At his best, he’s a high-end defensive middle infielder and impact power threat, to say nothing of the obvious energy and flair he brings to an organization. In three of the past four seasons, Báez has posted above-average marks on both sides of the ball en route to campaigns valued at around four or five wins above replacement by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
That impact potential makes Báez one of the key members of this offseason’s famously star-studded shortstop class. Still, he’s not in position to land the top-of-the-market deals of players like Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, as Báez has been prone to bouts of offensive inconsistency. His numbers in last year’s shortened season (.203/.238/.360 over 235 plate appearances) were awful. And while Báez finished this past season on a tear, he wasn’t great over the year’s first few months.
In 361 plate appearances with the Cubs prior to being traded, the 28-year-old (29 in December) hit .248/.292/.484. That’s roughly league average production, by measure of wRC+, with Báez’s impact power largely offset by a poor on-base percentage. In spite of his strong finish, it’s fair to question how reliably teams can count on Báez reaching base moving forward. He struck out in 33.6% of his plate appearances in 2021 while walking just 5.1% of the time, an essentially unparalleled combination for an above-average hitter. And over the past two seasons, no other hitter (minimum 500 plate appearances) has swung and missed at a higher percentage of pitches seen.
Báez’s somewhat enigmatic combination of elite power/glovework and perhaps the game’s most overaggressive approach makes him one of the most difficult players on the market to value. Martino suggests he could land a guarantee in the $150MM — $200MM range, although it’d frankly register as a surprise if any team were willing to commit that heavily to a player with such significant swing-and-miss concerns. Still, there’s little question that Báez will command a large contract of some kind this winter, whether from the Mets or another club.
The crosstown Yankees could certainly be a fit, as they’re generally expected to be involved in the bidding for some of the top free agent shortstops. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman flatly acknowledged this afternoon the club “(has) to address” the position in some manner this winter, with former shortstop Gleyber Torres now viewed as a second baseman. Martino reports the Yankees were “aggressive” in their pursuit of Báez via trade before he landed with the Mets this summer, and there’d certainly be some merit to considering another run at him in free agency over the coming weeks and months.Leave a comment:
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That was a bad loss by Atlanta today. Like I said they just need to get one here on the road but it will be difficult because the Dodgers are tough to beat at Dodger Stadium. I have a bad feeling that game 3 may have just turned the tide in the Dodgers favor.Leave a comment:
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The Jays need to re-sign Robbie Ray, if they don't they are screwed.Leave a comment:
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Yeah that will be the story especially if the Dodgers rally to face them in the World Series. Before the ALCS started I was thinking the Astros would beat the Red Sox but now I'm not so sure and the Sox are up 2-1. They seem to be getting hot at the right time and that could propel them to another championship which would be amazing since nobody was talking them up prior to the season starting.Leave a comment:
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Here are the rotation options slated to hit the open market in the coming weeks:
A Tier Unto Himself
- Max Scherzer (37 years old in 2022): The most dominant pitcher of the current generation, Scherzer could potentially win a fourth Cy Young Award after tossing 179 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a huge 34.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate — the third-lowest mark of his storied career. Scherzer is as dominant as he’s ever been, and the only thing that will cap his market this offseason is his age. Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros for these same age-37 and age-38 seasons, and Scherzer can justifiably look to eclipse that mark in both years and average annual value. He, somewhat incredibly, has a shot at a second nine-figure deal in free agency this winter. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer (both due to being traded midseason and having previously rejected one in his career).
Other Top of the Market Options
- Robbie Ray (30): Back on Aug. 13, I took a look at how the Jays had struck gold on their decision to jump the market and re-sign Ray right out of the gate in free agency. In the 10 starts he made after the time I published that piece, Ray pitched 63 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with a 36% strikeout rate, solidifying himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Ray’s success is largely driven by heretofore unseen levels of command; after walking 12.9 percent of his opponents from 2017-20, Ray walked just 6.9 percent of the batters he faced in 2021. His 32.1% strikeout rate is the second-best of his career. His AL-best 193 1/3 innings were a career-high. Some clubs will be skeptical about his ability to maintain that vastly improved command, but Ray has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract of five or six years in length after he rejects a qualifying offer.
- Kevin Gausman (31): Gausman’s decision to accept a qualifying offer last year looks quite shrewd. The right-hander might’ve been able to command a two- or three-year deal on the heels of his 2020 breakout, but he bet on himself with that one-year deal and improved across the board. Gausman’s 192 frames and 2.81 ERA were both sixth-best among qualified starters, while his 29.2% strikeout rate and 22.8 K-BB% both ranked eighth. Over his past 251 2/3 innings, Gausman carries a flat 3.00 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate against a terrific 6.5% walk rate. The former No. 4 overall draft pick now looks like the ace Orioles fans might’ve hoped for when he debuted in 2013. He’s ineligible to receive another qualifying offer and will vie with Ray for the largest overall contract of any starter this offseason.
- Marcus Stroman (30): Stroman doesn’t miss bats at the level of the other top arms on this list, but he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers and has better command than most of the names on this list. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in four of the past six seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2020 (when he tore a calf muscle and opted out of the remainder of the season) and in 2018, when he was limited to 19 starts by shoulder fatigue. That’s the only arm injury Stroman has ever had, and the 3.48 ERA he’s compiled over his past four seasons ranks 23rd among 138 qualified starters since 2017. This year’s 3.02 ERA ranked ninth among qualified pitchers. Fielding-independent metrics have never been quite as bullish on Stroman because of his below-average strikeout rate, but his age, durability, premium command and huge ground-ball rates make him one of the market’s top starters. He can’t receive a second qualifying offer and could command a five-year deal himself this winter.
- Carlos Rodon (29): On July 18, Rodon held the Astros to one hit with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. He hasn’t topped five innings in a start since. Were it not for an ominous bout of shoulder fatigue that sent Rodon to the IL in August and ostensibly capped him at four to five innings per outing late in the year, he’d be right alongside Ray in AL Cy Young contention. The former No. 3 overall pick broke out with a 2.37 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate that trailed only Corbin Burnes (min. 100 innings pitched). Rodon was questionable for the ALDS but eventually pitched 2 2/3 innings in the ChiSox’ final effort against Houston. He was hitting the upper-90s with his heater, but that brief look may not be enough to allay concerns about his shoulder. Rodon could reject a qualifying offer and look to max out on a shorter multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could go the Gausman/Stroman route — accept a QO and hope a big 2022 showing positions him for a nine-figure deal next winter.
Former Cy Young Winners in their Mid/Late 30s
- Zack Greinke (38): Greinke still provides innings, but his average fastball was down to 89.0 mph in 2021 and he posted a second consecutive ERA north of 4.00. Greinke’s season-long numbers were torpedoed by a poor stretch of four starts to close out the year. His ERA sat at 3.41 as recently as Aug. 23 — albeit with a sub-par 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Still, Greinke is durable and possesses outstanding command. Teams will see him as a workhorse who can provide average or better innings while passing down plenty of knowledge to younger arms. He’s already turned down one qualifying offer, so he can’t receive a second.
- Justin Verlander (39): It was surprising to hear Astros owner Jim Crane say Verlander would be seeking “a contract of some length” recently. The two-time Cy Young winner has thrown just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 postseason due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Houston will make a qualifying offer, and if Verlander is indeed intent on multiple years, he’ll reject. Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s, and his resume speaks for itself. A multi-year deal is risky, but how many arms come with this type of ceiling?
- Corey Kluber (36): Kluber’s comeback looked to be in full swing when he no-hit the Rangers in May. However, he pitched three innings in his next start, went on the injured list for three months, and returned with a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 frames. Kluber still finished with a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings, but his 24 percent strikeout rate was roughly average and his 9.7 percent walk rate was high. That no-no and a dominant outing against the Tigers early in the year stand out, but his season lacked consistency.
- Clayton Kershaw (34): He wasn’t quite peak Kershaw, but the second three-time Cy Young winner on this list rattled off 121 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball with even more promising strikeout (29.5) and walk (4.3) percentages when healthy. Kershaw hit the IL with forearm inflammation in early July and missed two months before returning for four shaky starts down the stretch (15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA). He’s out for the postseason due to renewed forearm discomfort but won’t require surgery, instead receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. There’s huge uncertainty here. If the Dodgers feel he’s healthy enough to make a qualifying offer, perhaps the simplest course would just be for Kershaw to accept.
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