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The Orioles have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Eric Young Jr. and invited him to Major League Spring Training, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (via Twitter).
Young, now 33 years old, spent the 2017-18 seasons with the Angels but, after a solid run in 2017, saw his offensive output crater in 2018. Overall, he hit a combined .233/.293/.361 with five homers, nine doubles, a pair of triples and 17 steals through 242 plate appearances with the Halos. Young paced the National League with 46 stolen bases back in 2013 as a member of the Rockies, and he doesn’t look to have lost much of a step, as his sprint speed of 29.0 feet per second (via Statcast) still ranked in the 91st percentile of big leaguers.
Baltimore currently projects to have Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart line up as the primary outfielders, with Mark Trumbo, Joey Rickard, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Rule 5 pick Drew Jackson all potentially factoring into the mix as well. Young, though, would bring an element of speed to the O’s that is largely lacking outside of Mullins and infielder Jonathan Villar, so perhaps that’ll hold some appeal to the Orioles’ new leadership as Young vies for a bench job this spring.Comment -
Harper is bluffing he's going back to washington.......Comment -
Kyler Murray will return $1.29 million of the $1.5 million signing bonus money the Oakland A's gave him last year. He forfeits the remaining $3.16 million due March 1. The A's will put him on the restricted list and retain Murray's rights, but they don't get a compensatory draft pick because he chose the NFL. Had Murray not signed, the A's would've received the 11th pick in this year's draft.Comment -
The A's got shit on by Murray, no compensatory pick.Comment -
So close to spring training, can’t wait to watch some in Arizona this year!Comment -
The Giants are in discussions with free-agent outfielder Cameron Maybin, At least that well add some versatility to the outfield......Comment -
[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
The Marlins are in agreement on a one-year contract with veteran reliever Sergio Romo, pending a physical, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). Romo will be guaranteed $2.5MM and can earn additional money on top of that via incentives. Talks between Miami and the veteran righty were reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of MLB Network earlier this afternoon. Romo is represented by Meister Sports.
Set to turn 36 early next month, Romo will give the Marlins a veteran anchor to pair with younger less-experienced arms such as Drew Steckenrider, Adam Conley and Tayron Guerrero late in games. While he helped the Rays to pioneer the “opener” strategy last season, Romo’s best work with Tampa Bay came in his more familiar role as a reliever and closer. When pitching out of the ’pen for the Rays, Romo turned in a solid 3.88 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 34.3 percent ground-ball rate.
Home runs were somewhat of an issue for Romo, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as he served them up at an average of 1.47 per nine innings pitched. However, he also maintained a 13 percent swinging-strike rate and generated a swing on a third of the out-of-zone pitches he threw to opponents — both strong marks that create some optimism about his ability to continue missing bats. A move to the National League — specifically to the cavernous Marlins Park — should help to curtail some of the troubles he had with the long ball last year.
While the Marlins could yet leave the ninth inning open for competition between Romo, Steckenrider and Guerrero in camp, it’s fair to call the veteran Romo the favorite to close games in Miami. He tallied 25 saves for Tampa Bay a year ago and has compiled 109 saves across an 11-year Major League career.
If he can once again thrive in a ninth-inning capacity for the Marlins, his tenure with the organization could prove to be a short one. While Romo’s market was oddly tepid in free agency — the Twins and Rangers were reportedly willing to offer him a minor league deal, while the Blue Jays were interested at the MLB level — the demand for affordable bullpen help is always at its greatest leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Given that the Marlins are the clear cellar dwellers in a stacked NL East division, Miami seems likely to make Romo available to other clubs in need of relievers this summer.Comment -
Sounds like Giants are out for Harper... time for a Phillies offer and then Theo swoops in with a better one to bring him to Wrigley.Comment -
The Marlins are in agreement on a one-year contract with veteran reliever Sergio Romo, pending a physical, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). Romo will be guaranteed $2.5MM and can earn additional money on top of that via incentives. Talks between Miami and the veteran righty were reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of MLB Network earlier this afternoon. Romo is represented by Meister Sports.
Set to turn 36 early next month, Romo will give the Marlins a veteran anchor to pair with younger less-experienced arms such as Drew Steckenrider, Adam Conley and Tayron Guerrero late in games. While he helped the Rays to pioneer the “opener” strategy last season, Romo’s best work with Tampa Bay came in his more familiar role as a reliever and closer. When pitching out of the ’pen for the Rays, Romo turned in a solid 3.88 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 34.3 percent ground-ball rate.
Home runs were somewhat of an issue for Romo, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as he served them up at an average of 1.47 per nine innings pitched. However, he also maintained a 13 percent swinging-strike rate and generated a swing on a third of the out-of-zone pitches he threw to opponents — both strong marks that create some optimism about his ability to continue missing bats. A move to the National League — specifically to the cavernous Marlins Park — should help to curtail some of the troubles he had with the long ball last year.
While the Marlins could yet leave the ninth inning open for competition between Romo, Steckenrider and Guerrero in camp, it’s fair to call the veteran Romo the favorite to close games in Miami. He tallied 25 saves for Tampa Bay a year ago and has compiled 109 saves across an 11-year Major League career.
If he can once again thrive in a ninth-inning capacity for the Marlins, his tenure with the organization could prove to be a short one. While Romo’s market was oddly tepid in free agency — the Twins and Rangers were reportedly willing to offer him a minor league deal, while the Blue Jays were interested at the MLB level — the demand for affordable bullpen help is always at its greatest leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Given that the Marlins are the clear cellar dwellers in a stacked NL East division, Miami seems likely to make Romo available to other clubs in need of relievers this summer.
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Dave Dombrowski said Chris Sale is healthy and has been "cleared to have a normal spring training." Sale had two separate DL stints in the second half of 2018 due to shoulder inflammation and while he pitched in the postseason, his velocity was down and the Red Sox started David Price on short rest over him in Game 5 (although Sale finished off the clincher by striking out the side in the ninth inning).Comment -
Padres won't get him. They better off getting Harper and Moustakas.Comment -
San Diego Padres
Team Leadership
In the realm of sports franchise ownership, the Padres got off to a rough start. C. Arnholdt Smith founded the team in 1969, but when software executive John Moores bought the team in 1994, he became the fourth distinct owner in just a 25-year span, an unseemly rate of turnover for the club. Moores held the club as majority owner for a significant period of time, but it wasn’t without its own upheaval: in 2009, a group led by agent Jeff Moorad purchased a significant minority stake in the Padres with the intention of completing the remaining purchase of the team in the coming years. Instead, after years of trying by Moorad, the team was sold to beer distributor Ron Fowler in 2012.
Since August 2014, the baseball operations department has been headed by executive vice president and general manager A.J. Preller. Preller inherited a team that had won 75 games per year from 2011-14 and in the first four years under his leadership, the team went on to win just 70 per year. Nevertheless, Preller received an extension in October 2017 due in large part to his efforts building a successful farm system.
The team is yet to make a postseason run under Preller (or Fowler, for that matter), but to be fair, they won just one playoff game in the 14 years prior to Fowler’s purchase.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Padres, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers the transition from Moores to Fowler ownership and includes Preller’s first attempt to buy a winner, so this provides an excellent window into what to expect from the club as they rev up to contend again. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Although the Padres have never been a top spender among Major League clubs, payroll underwent a meteoric rise during the first few years of Fowler’s ownership, nearly tripling from 2010 to 2015 before tumbling again when Preller’s first attempt at constructing a winner backfired.
The Padres have never come remotely close to incurring a luxury tax bill, oftentimes ending with a payroll $100 million under the tax line. However, the team became a major spender on international amateur talent prior to the new system clamping down on substantial expenditures in that space, giving out the following bonuses in the 2016 class alone: $11 million to Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon, $4 million to Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar, $3 million to Cuban righty Michel Baez, and at least five other bonuses between $1 million and $2 million each. Despite the paltry annual Major League payrolls and the smaller media market when compared to the behemoths of baseball, the Padres under Preller approached the international amateur space like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement closed that door. A major chunk of franchise spending was embedded here.
Future Liabilities
The Padres sheet is really interesting. Let’s take a look and then examine the numbers.
Let’s look at this one backward, from the bottom to the top.
The Padres have a significant chunk of their 2019 spending tied up in players who won’t be wearing Padres uniforms this year. Hughes appears to be the biggest number at first glance, but thanks to the contribution from the Twins, San Diego owes him just $7.25 million. More importantly, the purpose of that deal wasn’t Hughes: it was San Diego’s ability to draft and sign Texas Tech oufielder Grant Little with the 74th pick in the 2018 draft, acquired from the Twins alongside Hughes.
The largest commitment belongs to Hector Olivera at $16 million over the next two years. Signed by the Dodgers, Olivera was traded to the Braves, suspended for domestic violence, and then the Padres acquired his contract when offloading Matt Kemp’s remaining deal to Atlanta.
Makita failed as a bullpen import last year, while Wood failed as a trade import in 2017, leaving 2018 dead money and the buyout of his 2019 option that was split with Kansas City. Neither amount is significant.
Finally, Gyorko, Shields, and Richard also won’t play for the Padres in 2019. For Gyorko and Shields, this year represents the final year of multi-year payouts of bad decisions. For Richard, San Diego caught a break when Toronto claimed him off of waivers and agreed to take on half of his $3 million guarantee for 2019.
Add it all up and the net dead money on the San Diego books is $25.9 million in 2019, $8.5 million in 2020, and nothing beyond. Keep this in mind.
Small, short-term commitments to Kinsler and Stammen don’t move the needle much, though both figure to get a chance to play meaningful roles for the team in 2019.
Richards, on the other hand, gets yet another chance to show that he can get and stay healthy over the course of a southern California season, this time with the Padres instead of the Angels. That chance, of course, will come in 2020 after Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2018.
Finally, we hit the two big numbers: Myers and Hosmer. Myers showed tremendous promise early in his career with the Rays and he excelled with San Diego in 2016, totaling 28 homers and steals while getting on base well. Unfortunately, nagging wrist injuries an an inexplicable experiment at third base have hampered his overall value in recent years. Just 28, Myers still has time to re-emerge even if the early returns on his extension have been poor. Add it all up and he has $72.5 million remaining over the next four guaranteed years, including his 2023 buyout. Not good. But not crippling.
Hosmer, similarly, provided terrible early returns on his big deal. He comically has an average WAR in even-numbered years of -0.4 compared to 2.9 in odd-numbered years, including 3.6 over his non-rookie odd-numbered years. I’m not here to stump for the even-year/odd-year split, but Hosmer has shown a trend. The Padres will surely hope to see a massive rebound from their marquee investment in 2019. Like Myers, Hosmer is still in his 20s (29). Hosmer is due $80 million over the next four years before he decides whether to hit free agency in advance of his age-33 season or keep his three-year, $39 million golden parachute.
The Padres arbitration table is arguably the leanest one we’ve seen thus far in the series:
Despite being 5’10” and nearly 32 years old, Yates figures to occupy a key role in 2019 coming off of a stellar 2018 that saw peak production and a repeat of his 2017 velocity jump. Yates figures to play an important role for the team, either as the closer or as this year’s Brad Hand, fetching a sizable return in July.
Hedges is an excellent defensive catcher and provided offense around the league average for his position last year.
Erlin excelled in a swing role in 2018 returning from Tommy John surgery, coming in under one walk per nine innings while setting career highs in velocity on every pitch. He’s worth keeping an eye on in 2019.
The remaining names — Jankowski, Mitchell, and Garcia — simply don’t move the needle much (unless the needle is moved by pure speed, in which case Jankowski moves it a ton).
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
At a time when most franchises are talking about payroll efficiency and ducking the luxury tax, Preller’s end-of-season comments were a breath of fresh air. In looking to 2019, Preller stated that “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility, because a lot of the players are younger players. And we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside — be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”
Fowler, on the other hand, made waves this offseason by opening the team’s books to the San Diego Union-Tribune and revealing that he is (i) primarily focused on reducing the team’s debt load, and (ii) still hung up on the inefficient use of cash from 2015. Fowler mentioned that 2015’s $40 million payroll bump yielded just $15 million in additional ticket/concession/merchandise revenue, continuing that “It really convicted me…We had a blip in terms of revenue…(and) we dug a big hole for ourselves.”
That does not sound like an owner interested in spending big dollars anytime soon.
Are the Padres a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Yes. Definitely. Or at least they definitely should be.
The Padres don’t immediately make oodles of sense as a player at the top of the market, but they check off every other box for being a team that pursues one of these elite talents.
First and foremost, ownership has shown the penchant to spend on a winner as Preller’s 2015 experiment showed.
Second, ownership has shown a penchant to spend on “the right player” as last year’s massive deal for Hosmer showed.
Third, the Padres have a window of contention that will blow open in the next year or two.
Fourth, thanks to shrewd trades and superb drafting and development, that contender will be fueled almost entirely by players making the league minimum. The Padres have assembled one of the truly great collections of farm talent in the modern history of the game. I could go into great detail here, but instead, I’ll let the introduction to the club’s top prospect list over at Baseball Prospectus do the talking: “their full-slot, top-ten first-round pick from this year’s draft is ranked 12th overall.” If you have any interest in prospect accumulation, take a look at the Padres system and how it was built.
Fifth, they have southern California geography on their side with both a pleasing climate and proximity to Harper’s home in Las Vegas.
Sixth, they have a desperate need for an impact bat (or two) and the two spots that make the most sense for housing this bat are (i) outfield, and (ii) shortstop or third base (wherever stud infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t playing).
Seventh, outside of Hosmer and Myers, the Padres don’t have any major salaries on the books and their current Major League players heading into arbitration in the next few years won’t receive substantial awards. There simply isn’t much in the way of earmarked money going forward, be it currently guaranteed or coming through arbitration.
Eighth, the immediate payoff could be significant as the Rockies stood pat this winter aside from Daniel Murphy, the Diamondbacks kicked off a rebuild, and the Giants have thus far made modest additions.
Considering the above factors and the glacial pace of the Harper/Machado market to date, it should come as no surprise that the Padres began openly poking around the market for the superstars last week.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
At this stage in the offseason, payroll is quite low at $87.6 million. This would represent a 6.8 percent drop in payroll from 2018’s Opening Day payroll. As a reminder, 2018’s Opening Day payroll was 5.3 percent below 2016’s opening day payroll. And 2016’s Opening Day payroll was 8.4 percent below 2015’s. Add it all up and this year’s Opening Day payroll would be 19.2 percent below 2015’s high water mark. In the estimate of Forbes, the franchise’s value has increased over 29.9 percent during that time.
So is this it? Is this the new normal for the Padres, same as the old normal?
Something doesn’t add up to me. The Padres sported a payroll north of $100 million in 2015 and spent nearly $100 million in 2016 while spending about $25 million on international amateurs, all while saddled with a much more notable debt burden.
There’s a scenario in play where Fowler truly doesn’t want to spend, thus keeping payroll at its current level below $90 million and saving his cash for…well, I’m not sure exactly. But that doesn’t line up with recent practice. The club lacks major commitments going forward and needs a big boost with a front office and ownership group that has shown a willingness to make a splash. I bet Fowler authorizes another big swing.
Keep in mind that the numbers projected below would still be below 2015 and 2016 aggregate spending levels…and that the team sees more than $20 million in dead money drop off of its books next year.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $115 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $27.4 millionComment -
Man I wish Murray would try to play both. Probably too hard at QB. Too many plays to learnComment -
Aaron Boone also said Aroldis Chapman's knee, which was so problematic down the stretch last year, is in "good condition." CC Sabathia's knee is one the Yankees are keeping an eye on as they ease him into spring training work. It prob won't be until March 1 before he does PFP and mound work.Comment -
The Giants acquired right-handed reliever Trevor Gott from the Washington Nationals in exchange for cash considerations......... Another "Big deal"...good griefComment -
Gonna have to wait til March for these signings?Comment -
Padres getting involved in the Harper and Machado sweepstakes is interesting. Pretty cool to see that their ownership is willing to spend money in order to try and win, just wish my Giants would do the same thing.Comment -
The Giants have interest in veteran infielder Yangervis Solarte, according to Alex Palovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link).
While this connection is decidedly less splashy than another recently reported expression of interest, Solarte seems to be a readily achievable target. He is looking for a new opportunity after the Blue Jays declined a $5.5MM club option and then non-tendered him.
A 31-year-old infielder, Solarte is capable of lining up anywhere in the infield, though he has spent most of his time at third base and second base. Solarte has played some shortstop, though he has logged fewer innings there than he has at first.
If he’s a utility piece, then, the switch-hitter is more of a bat-first option who probably shouldn’t be relied upon too heavily at shortstop. That profile arguably suits the Giants well, given that they’ll likely play Brandon Crawford nearly every day at shortstop but could stand to find complementary pieces at second and third base to go with Joe Panik and Evan Longoria.
Solarte has at times been a solid overall contributor. From 2014 through 2017, he turned in over two thousand plate appearances of .267/.327/.419 hitting with 57 home runs. Defensive metrics have graded Solarte as an average or slightly below-average performer.
Last year, though, was a rough season in all respects. Solarte topped five hundred plate appearances for the fourth time in his five MLB seasons, but slashed a meager .226/.277/.378 while receiving his lowest-ever marks defensively. No doubt a .233 batting average on balls in play reflected some poor fortune, though Statcast was not particularly enamored of his batted-ball profile, crediting him with a .284 wOBA and .299 xwOBA.
Now in search of an opportunity to bounce back, Solarte will surely be looking for the best chance to carve out a significant role. If he lands in San Francisco, it stands to reason that Solarte would battle with Pablo Sandoval and Alen Hanson for a roster spot and/or position on the depth chart.Comment
