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After conducting a face-to-face meeting in Las Vegas with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper on Saturday, the Phillies “remain optimistic” they’ll emerge from the offseason having signed him or free-agent infielder Manny Machado, Matt Breen of Philly.com reports. At the very least, the Phillies will be finalists for both Harper and Machado, Breen adds.
The Phillies entered the winter with owner John Middleton declaring that money wouldn’t stand in the way of upgrading a team which has missed the playoffs seven years in a row. And signing either Harper or Machado has always stood out as the clearest path to improving the Phillies’ roster, as the two 26-year-old superstars are easily the premier players on the open market. Given both the Phillies’ financial might and their need for at least one of those players, it’s “likely” they’ll put forth the richest offers for both Harper and Machado, according to Breen.
If the Phillies are only able to pick one, it’d be Machado, whom they “seem to prefer,” Breen writes. However, the Phillies have “signaled” to him that they are also interested in Harper – a move that Breen posits could pressure Machado to accept an offer from them. Notably, since the Phillies met with Machado in December, they’ve added one of his confidants to their staff, having hired former Orioles infield coach Bobby Dickerson in the same role. Dickerson was with the Orioles during Machado’s entire run with the team from 2012-18. Meanwhile, the White Sox – who look like the only other team seriously pursuing Machado – may have helped their chances this winter by acquiring the shortstop/third baseman’s brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and his friend Jon Jay. But if money, not personal ties, ends up being the deciding factor in where Machado goes, signs are pointing to Philadelphia. After all, the White Sox’s only known offer to date was reportedly worth closer to $200MM than $300MM, and it may take a proposal nearer to the latter amount to lure Machado.
As with Machado, Harper has fewer franchises going after him than expected this offseason. Still, at least four teams – the Phillies, White Sox, Nationals and Dodgers – look to be in the running. It seems the Nationals, with whom Harper has spent his whole career since going first overall in the 2010 draft, are particularly strong in the derby. As of earlier this week, the Nats were reportedly upping their efforts to re-sign Harper, to whom they’ve already extended at least one offer worth well north of $300MM. Reports have indicated the Dodgers aren’t keen on making a long-term commitment, on the other hand, meaning Harper may have to choose among the Phillies, White Sox and Nationals if he has any hope of landing a record-setting contract.Comment -
Russell Martin, coming to the Dodgers in a trade, is a .208 hitter in 181 games over the last two years, but has been on base 34 percent of the time. Ranked 6th among 78 catchers in pitch framing last year, based on ESPN metrics, but hasn't thrown out more than 22 percent of base-stealers the last three years.
Russell Martin, 36 in February: "It's a big year for me. I need to have a good year, or else nobody's going to want to have me. It's really simple."
Russell Martin, asked about Matt Kemp's resurgence in 2018 (in the first half, at least): "There's something about putting on that Dodger uniform that can bring out some magic in you, and hopefully I can get some of that magic this year."Comment -
Martin is doneComment -
Machado to the Yankees is less likely now with the LeMahieu signing you would have to think.Comment -
I am here just to get my 1 free point of the day just like yisman. How does he have hte time everyday to make 1 post here just to get 1 point a dayComment -
Giants agreed to a one-year, $4.225 million deal with closer Will Smith, He is coming off a strong season during which he returned from Tommy John surgery and posted a 2.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, with his velocity returning to pre-surgery levels. racking up 14 saves in the second half of last season.Comment -
Reds are going to be average, Puig not going to make them a contender.Comment -
- The Marlins had some interest in free agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter), though talks “never got close” between the two sides. It’s surprising to see the rebuilding Marlins make a play in any sort of veteran this offseason, though as Rosenthal puts it, Miami saw LeMahieu as an “undervalued asset at potential below-market price.” While it took until early January for LeMahieu to land his two-year, $24MM deal from the Yankees, the second baseman still had a pretty robust market, with multiple teams (including the Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, and Athletics) showing interest in his services. It stands to reason that several others at least checked in, as the Yankees hadn’t been linked to LeMahieu before their deal was announced and Miami was certainly off the radar as a potential candidate. LeMahieu’s $24MM total also topped MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM contract for the free agent second baseman, so it’s fair to assume that his market never dropped to the point that the Marlins could’ve made a play.
- Keeping with the Marlins, right-hander Dan Straily remains “high atop the team’s trade list,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. Straily drew quite a bit of trade attention last winter but his stock dropped after a forearm injury limited him to just 122 1/3 IP in 2018, and some rough advanced metric numbers. Straily’s .350 xwOBA was well above his .324 wOBA, and ERA indicators (5.11 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA) paint a lesser picture of his 4.12 ERA. This could make it hard for the Marlins to get their desired “nice return” for the righty, as Cafardo describes it, though he suggests that Miami could get more offers on Straily after other pitching targets in free agency or the trade market come off the board. Straily is controllable for the next two years and isn’t very expensive, as he and the Marlins recently agreed to a $5MM contract for 2019 to avoid arbitration.
- Also from Cafardo, he hears from Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill that the veteran hurler “absolutely” plans to continue his career into the 2020 season. Hill is entering the final season of his three-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers, and it seemed logical to wonder if Hill could be considering retirement, given that he turns 39 in March and has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career. That said, it also isn’t surprising that Hill wants to keep going in the wake of his late-career revival, as the southpaw has a 2.98 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 3.76 K/BB rate over 407 2/3 IP in 2015-18. If Hill manages can duplicate his performance in 2019, it certainly seems like he’ll be able to land another contract (if a short-term deal) from a contending team. “There’s a lot more left in the tank. I want that ring,” Hill said, in reference to the Dodgers’ close calls in the World Series in each of the last two seasons.
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Padres trying to snare a top line starter without giving up any of their top 5 prospects...probably why no deals have been made yet.Comment -
I am convinced Harper goes to Cubs. They are just waiting for Philly to make their offer.Comment -
White Sox offered Machado an 8 year contract worth $250 million. That's all I got for now.Comment -
Kyler Murray has announced he will enter the NFL draft, has 72hrs to withdraw his name. The A's got 72 hrs to throw huge guaranteed money at him to change his mind.Comment -
Giants Derek Holland signed a one-year, $7 million deal with a club option for a second year. He led the Giants with 171 1/3 innings and 169 strikeouts, good for 15th in the NL. Holland had a 3.57 ERA overall and lowered that to 2.83 in the second half.
Glad to see this.....Comment -
The Reds werer able to score runs last year and Lost a lot of close games. Their biggest problems were giving up runs, because most starters were Rookies or youngsters.
If veterans Wood and Roark can have a decent season and led the younger pitchers. Than 77 wins is not far fetched...Comment -
It’s well known that the Nationals hope to work out a long-term deal with third baseman Anthony Rendon before he reaches free agency next winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote over the weekend (subscription required) that Rendon and agent Scott Boras have been eyeing something in the vicinity of Jose Altuve’s extension from a year ago. Altuve was already under contract for two years and $12.5MM at the time he signed for an additional five years and $151MM, which brought his current contract to a total of $163.5MM over seven years. The Nats are already just a few million dollars shy of the luxury tax threshold, and bumping Rendon’s annual value from the reported $18.8MM figure to which he agreed on Friday would likely take them over the limit. The Nats have been willing to exceed that threshold for Bryce Harper, however, and perhaps the allure of keeping Rendon from reaching the open market would be incentive enough to do the same. As Rosenthal explores, the two situations are also somewhat related, as fitting both players onto the payroll would come with luxury repercussions — even when factoring in the likely stream of subsequent moves that would follow a new contract for Harper (e.g. trading a current outfielder).
More from the NL East…
- There’s still mutual interest in a contract extension between Jacob deGrom and the Mets, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. The 2018 NL Cy Young winner agreed to a record-setting arbitration raise on Friday when he inked a $17MM contract for the upcoming season, and Puma notes that there’s a belief that any extension would need to cover at least five seasons at rates roughly commensurate with the annual salaries afforded to Clayton Kershaw ($31MM), David Price ($31MM) and Zack Greinke ($34.4MM). That’s a lofty annual price to pay, of course, though after receiving nearly a $10MM raise in arbitration this time around, deGrom’s price tag could approach that point in his final trip through arbitration next season anyhow. He’s controlled through the 2020 season.
- Other teams have been in touch with the Marlins regarding right-hander Dan Straily throughout the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro in his latest mailbag column, and it’s possible that Straily could yet be moved before Opening Day. The right-hander agreed to a $5MM salary for the upcoming season on Friday and can be controlled through the 2020 season before reaching free agency. While the 30-year-old Straily was limited to just 122 1/3 innings last season, he’s pitched to a respectable 4.03 ERA over his past 495 1/3 innings at the big league level. Fielding-independent metrics don’t necessarily back that output, but Straily has outperformed his FIP throughout his career and, at the very least, is likely looked upon as a viable back-of-the-rotation option for a team in need of a fourth or fifth starter.
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Nice Bluff Kyler Murray. Either way he is going to get paid. Set for lifeComment -
looks as if the Padres do not want to keep Kluber if they trade for him and will either flip him or do a multiple team trade.
looks like they are trying to trade for Reds top 3rd base prospect, Nick Senzel..Comment -
gonna have a strike soon!Comment -
I would not mind keeping Kluber but he is kind of old and his stuff has been regressing the past couple of years based on an article that i read..I'd be very happy to trade for Senzel as the Padres need a 3rd baseman...there are plenty of young pitchers, outfielders and catchers in our stocked farm system and major league roster to make all kinds of deals. I really hope they keep Tatis, Gore, Urias, Paddack and Allen.Comment -
I wouldn't give Kyle Murray a huge MLB deal. He may be good but not superstar great and in the majors, the first year of playing in the pros will determine how good you really are.
Padres had Matt Bush who was the top prospect but never got around to play in the majors until more later than 20 years.Comment -
Kluber needs to go somewhere that is ready to win now.Comment -
4:45pm: Machado was the Phils’ primary target at one point, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), but it’s now much more even between him and Harper — if not slightly tilted in Harper’s favor. The Phillies, according to Heyman, are expected to make a formal offer to Harper in the near future.
Even if the Phillies won’t sign both Machado and Harper, Heyman notes that the goal is to sign one and then explore the market for other top free agents like Pollock, Keuchel and Kimbrel. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites team executives with the Phils in tweeting that organization has “visions” of signing the trio of Harper, Keuchel and Kimbrel. Paired with the prior acquisitions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, among others, that’d obviously be a seismic roster overhaul — the magnitude of which has been virtually unparalleled by any team in recent memory.
Of course, striving to add that trio and actually signing all three are two entirely separate animals, and it remains to be seen how feasible it is that the Phillies could win the bidding on three of the market’s top remaining free agents.
1:00pm: With a surprisingly small number of teams engaged on superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it has at times seemed as if the big-budget Phillies are the favorites to land both players. Of course, even if the Philadelphia org is the likeliest single team to secure the services of each, that does not mean that it should be expected to come away with a pair of monster deals. Still, the possibility of hooking two free agent trophies has remained tantalizing to consider.
In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”
Certainly, there was never anything approaching an expectation that the Phillies would land both, or even that they’d seriously consider taking on two huge salaries. But it’s still a notable bit of seemingly hard information in a market situation that has remained exceedingly fluid, so far as is known publicly.
As Gelb explains, moreover, that stance is perhaps a notable aspect of the Phillies’ strategy in approaching both Harper and Machado. If the club’s money is only there for one of the two players, that conveys no small amount of leverage. Even if both players would rather end up elsewhere, they surely can’t ignore the presence of the Phils’ ample pocketbooks in navigating a surprisingly barren field of pursuers.
Perhaps the best case scenario for the Philadelphia club would be for one of these two players to jump on a big but palatable offer to join on. Of course, their respective representatives — Scott Boras, for Harper, and Dan Lozano, for Machado — have played this game before. We’ve seen teams emerge from the woodwork in the past to land players of this quality with surprisingly massive contracts. As Gelb rightly suggests, the presence (or absence) of “mystery teams” — whether as active bidders or as conjured by the agents — may go a long way toward influencing the course of negotiations.
Gelb says the Philly club intends to continue exercising confident patience in talks. The situation seems ripe for that approach, though surely the team would be better-situated if Harper or Machado had a stronger personal desire to end up in Philly. Really, there seem only to be a few risks here (beyond those that are inherent to such a major investment, which the team has already largely resolved in favor of action).
Those risks seem manageable. One is simply that the team loses out on the player it prefers to land, which would appear to be Machado. Given that the roster is susceptible of upgrades at both the corner outfield and third base, that’s not a major worry. Another is that it ends up having to pay a bit more by allowing the bidding to get going in earnest. Paying a premium now to forestall that possibility seems unwise, when the Phillies can surely afford to cover a higher price if that ends up being required. (This is the point of the post where I quote owner John Middleton on his willingness to spend “stupid money” this winter.)
Finally, the Phils could end up missing on both players. Gelb says the team is confident it will land one of the two, though surely there’s some possibility that they’ll both head elsewhere. That is perhaps the most concerning outcome, though even then there are alternatives. A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel are the leading three alternative remaining free agents; all would be hypothetical fits. And the trade market is all but sure to have some intriguing targets still available, even if it means coughing up more prospect capital than the team might wish. Losing the star power would hurt, but it seems reasonable to think the Phillies could still back-fill the missing talent.
All things considered, there are still many ways in which things could shake out — with both Harper and Machado landing in Philadelphia evidently not among them. Today’s news may not be earth-shattering, but it does cabin the universe of foreseeable outcomes. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, in a slow-moving and increasingly tense market setting, it’s a signpost that’s at least worthy of keeping in mind.Comment -
Joe Maddon on Cubs' chances of signing Bryce Harper: 'Not going to happen'
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