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Brewers - Dodgers giving us a run for the money... Brewers are one out away from winning Game 1 of NLCS. Pederson up.Comment -
That was a great game by the Brewers but hopefully they didn't overtax their bullpen. I give them the edge in this series because I think it will be a battle of the bullpens and nobody has a better bullpen than the Brewers imo.Comment -
For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years. However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Heyward, OF: $106MM through 2023 (may opt out of contract)
- Jon Lester, SP: $47.5MM through 2020. Includes mutual/vesting option for 2021.
- Yu Darvish, SP: $101MM through 2023
- Ben Zobrist, INF/OF: $12MM through 2019
- Tyler Chatwood, SP/RP: $25.5MM through 2020
- Brandon Morrow,RP: $12MM through 2019. Includes vesting option for 2020.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $13MM through 2019. Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
- Steve Cishek, RP: $7.5MM through 2019
- Brian Duensing, RP: $3.5MM through 2019
- Drew Smyly, SP: $7MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kris Bryant, 3B – $12.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks, SP – $7.6MM
- Javier Baez, INF – $7.1MM
- Addison Russell, SS – $4.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber, OF – $3.1MM
- Mike Montgomery, SP/RP – $3.0MM
- Carl Edwards Jr., RP – $1.4MM
- Tommy La Stella, INF – $1.2MM
Contract Options
- Cole Hamels, SP: $20MM club option. Rangers pay $6MM buyout if declined.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Pedro Strop, RP: $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
- Brandon Kintzler, RP: $10MM club option or $5MM player option
Free Agents
[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]
“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies. The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club. Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.
Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties. Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline. Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances. He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days. Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis. Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense. Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup. After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.
The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right. Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+. That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016. Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since. He was limited to just 102 games this year. Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him. Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date. Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.
Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position. Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again. Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season. Baez fits well at any infield position. He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate. The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract. Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line. The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.
Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM deal. MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM. Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger? With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes. Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time. The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold. Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.
Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado. Which player is the better fit? My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras). Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras. Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.
The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted. Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop. Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field. That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions. I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.
Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios. Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder. Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability. However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon. There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.
Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year. Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties. Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less. He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder. The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year. Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons. It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter. Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.
Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions. They’re just the best ones. Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster. The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.
Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year. Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know. With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.” The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident. In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go. We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.
Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation. Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in. Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow. He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready. The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract. Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December. He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.
While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018. In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs. Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s. Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.
Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option. Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas. The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.
Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth. In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies. Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side. Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs. Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019. The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio. Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover. The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario. They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.
Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them. From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing. The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training. Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen. I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal). One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.
The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019. Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end. My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.Comment -
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Kind of liking Dodgers for game 2. Martingale 3Comment -
milwaukee is 22nd highest payroll in mlb, the oakland athletics of the national league
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Brandon Woodruff is only the third relief pitcher to hit a home run in playoff history.
The others?
Travis Wood in 2016 and Rosy Ryan in 1924Comment -
Cubs had 95 wins, Vegas predicted 94... nothing wrong with Cubs. Brewers just had an amazing year. The Cubs bats will bounce back. Significant additions needed??? Give me a break. Watch out if they get Morrow, Bryant, and Darvish healthy.Comment -
Cubs are doneComment -
This has been the week from hell for the Yankees, whose season ended Tuesday at the hands of the hated Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Boston summarily disposed of the Yankees in four games, further cementing itself as the superior team in 2018 after it won the AL East with ease in the regular season, finishing with a 108-54 record to New York’s 100-62 mark. To make matters worse, the Yankees learned Friday that they’ll play a large portion of 2019 without one of their most valuable players, shortstop Didi Gregorius, who needs Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. Only two of the Yankees’ position players posted a higher fWAR this year than Gregorius, who recorded a 4.6 mark in 569 plate appearances to rank eighth among big league shortstops.
Now, with the Red Sox potentially on their way to a fourth World Series title since 2004 and the Yankees having been dealt a brutal blow well before 2019 begins, the question is: How will the Evil Empire strike back? Well, if the Yankees plan to go big-game hunting in free agency – as they’ve done on many occasions – perhaps they’ll respond by signing the Dodgers’ Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star infielder, 26, is set to hit the open market, where he’s sure to become one of the highest-paid players in the history of the sport.
Even with a healthy Gregorius, New York would’ve been a speculated suitor for Machado, whom it chased at this past summer’s trade deadline before the AL East rival Orioles dealt him to the Dodgers. With Gregorius in the fold, Machado likely would have slotted in at third base in 2019, sending AL Rookie of the Year Candidate Miguel Andujar to first base or designated hitter. Andujar’s on the heels of a huge season offensively, but he was a butcher at third, finishing last among major league infielders in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-25) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-16). Despite Andujar’s woeful season in the field, he may well remain at third next year if the Yankees add Machado, considering both Gregorius’ health and Machado’s preference to line up at short.
For the majority of his career, which began in 2012, Machado has played third, where he has been eminently successful. Machado has registered 84 Defensive Runs Saved and a 50.6 UZR at the position, while he has logged minus-10 DRS at short and a minus-6.1 UZR at shortstop, with all of the damage having come this past regular season (minus-12 DRS, minus-6.5 UZR) after he moved back to short. In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Machado served as one of the majors’ preeminent players in 2018, notching the game’s ninth-highest fWAR among position players (6.2) on the strength of his fourth straight 30-home run campaign. He’d give the Yankees’ already strong offense yet another formidable hitter, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Andujar, though the right-handed Machado wouldn’t provide the right-heavy lineup variety in terms of handedness.
Speaking of Torres, the Yankees may simply turn short over to him next year as they await Gregorius’ return and entrust the keystone to a far less expensive alternative to Machado. There are plenty of familiar veteran second basemen set to hit free agency in the offseason, including now-Yankee Neil Walker, though no one from the group is anywhere near the caliber of Machado.
For now, Machado and the still-alive Dodgers are focused on winning a championship, but it seems doubtful he’ll return to LA thereafter. The club has an excellent third baseman in Justin Turner and a great shortstop in Corey Seager, who missed most of 2018 on account of TJ surgery, after all. Thus, regardless of how the Dodgers’ season ends, it seems Machado’s destined to put on a new uniform in 2019. Do you expect New York to be the team that awards him one of the richest contracts in the history of baseball in the offseason, or will someone else win the much-anticipated derby?Comment -
cubs have some bad contracts maybe theo isn't so great
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Five of Houston's seven runs in Saturday's 7-2 ALCS win over Boston were scored by players who reached base by either getting walked or getting hit by pitches.Comment -
Repeat of Astros vs. Dodgers againComment -
Is everybody on the Astros tonight?Comment -
Devers looks good defensively, can the Sox hold on?Comment -
Brewers had Hader pitch 48 pitches in game one. That was a mistake.Comment -
would anybody watch a houston milwaukee world series , u know who mlb is rooting for
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- In the latest Marlins organizational news, the team hired Adrian Lorenzo as a special assistant in scouting and baseball operations, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via Twitter). Lorenzo had previously been working as assistant director of international scouting for the Red Sox. The Marlins also let go of pro scouting director Jim Cuthbert earlier this week, according to the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer (Twitter link), ending Cuthbert’s three-year tenure with the franchise.
- These changes and the recent overhaul of the Marlins’ coaching staff are just the latest in an extensive front office reshuffle since Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman took over the team, and since Jeter hired Gary Denbo as Miami’s VP of player development and scouting. While it isn’t unusual for new owners to put their personal stamp on a team, “people in baseball are just mystified by Denbo’s actions,” according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, and “morale in that organization, I’m told, is at an all-time low.”
- Cafardo also discusses the Twins’ managerial search in his column, writing that Mets manager Mickey Callaway “would have been high on the Twins’ list if he were available.” Callaway and Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey are familiar with each other from their shared time with the Indians, when Callaway was pitching coach and Falvey was working in the front office. Of course, the chance still exists that Callaway could become available, as the next Mets GM will reportedly have the authority to make a managerial change. Since the Twins’ search for a manager is already well under way, however, one would think the club wouldn’t wait under the Mets have made a hire and decided on Callaway’s fate. Callaway’s first season with the Mets was a rocky one, though he is still under contract for two more years (plus a club option for the 2021 season).
- Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is scheduled to meet with the media on Monday morning, with The Athletic’s David O’Brien (Twitter link) expecting that the team will announce a new contract for manager Brian Snitker and possibly some coaching changes. Snitker’s previous deal is up after the World Series is over, though the team was expected to offer him another contract and it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations went rather quickly. After all, Snitker did just lead the Braves to a somewhat surprising NL East title, and Snitker is a Braves lifer with over 40 years of experience in Atlanta’s organization.
- Also from O’Brien (Twitter links), he thinks the Braves will probably have somewhere in the range of $30MM-$35MM to spend this winter. The team has just over $90.8MM on the books for 2019 for current contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, give or take a few million less if Atlanta parts ways with any players on the non-tender bubble. The Braves have never had an Opening Day payroll higher than their $122.6MM figure from 2017 since Liberty Media has owned the team, so one would figure they wouldn’t go too far beyond that number. The club could also save some cash for midseason additions or, as O’Brien notes, use some money to sign in-house players to extensions. Regardless, the Braves’ offseason promises to be a very interesting one, as the team makes it next step towards long-term contention now that the rebuild phase seems to be over.
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Can't get it right. Bet Boston the first game then Astros the 2nd.Comment -
Good luck today everyoneComment -
Alex Bregman with six walks and an HBP in the first two games of the series. He's reached base in 17 of 23 plate appearances in the postseason.Comment
