Marlins with the mvp 2 years in a row...oh wait.... they traded them............
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Happy Christian Yelich won the MVP he deserved it. Definitely interested to see what his career turns out like now that he’s on a team that is actually trying to win.
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The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.
But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.
All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.
Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.
The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!
Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.
By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.
There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.
Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.
Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.Comment -
mets got the arms need some batsComment -
Yelich deserves it. He was amazingly clutch down the stretch.Comment -
Phillies owner: Ready to spend money 'and maybe be a little bit stupid about it'
Coming off a 2018 season in which the team contended for the National League East title before a late swoon, Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton said he is ready to spend big in free agency.
"We're going into this expecting to spend money," Middleton told USA Today Sports this week. "and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it."
Middleton wouldn't address specific high-profile stars who will be available, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado -- "I don't know who you're referring to," Middleton jokingly told the newspaper -- but said the Phillies will be spenders this offseason.
They have a payroll of less than $70 million for 2019 at this point, giving them flexibility to reshape the team. Middleton said the Phillies have options in how they will look to upgrade the roster this offseason.Comment -
Marlins should be relegated to AAA so their crooked owners stop collecting revenue sharing.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
The Phillies entered the winter widely tabbed as the most obvious aggressor on the free-agent market. It has been known for years, after all, that the organization was stripping its payroll and building its prospect base in hopes of launching back into a powerhouse.
Perhaps, then, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Philadelphia owner John Middleton was so willing to acknowledge the obvious. But he did so, with unusual candor, in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. As Middleton put it:“We’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”Whether those surprisingly forthcoming words portend a true spending bonanza isn’t quite clear. But they surely suggest that the Phillies aren’t afraid of a bidding war and are open — willing, even — to go a bit outside their comfort zone to win one, at least for the right player.
This long-anticipated free-agent class may not quite have arrived with the expected hype, but it’s still laden with opportunities. And the Phils have both the need and the means to chase the market’s biggest names: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, of course, but also perhaps quality players such as Patrick Corbin, Craig Kimbrel, and Yasmani Grandal.
Click here for a detailed analysis of the Phillies’ payroll availability.
As Middleton rightly assesses, the Phillies clearly have “lots of ways to go to improve” a roster that has some valuable assets but relatively little in the way of established stars. That only makes things more interesting. Big-name acquisitions would likely also be followed by trades of current Philadelphia players, increasing the intrigue and ramping up the overall market entropy.
Clearly, it’s a high-stakes winter for a ballclub that sees an opportunity to make major strides. With Middleton expressing excitement at the prospect of unleashing the organization’s financial might, there’s every reason to believe that the Phillies will function as a market driver.Comment -
Philly set to get fleeced. Nobody is worth the money Harper and Machado about to get.Comment -
still waiting on a big free agent to be signed harper machado when's it going to happenComment -
I'd say both guys over paidComment -
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astros traded for aledmys diaz from toronto, are expecting to lose marwin gonzalez to free agencyComment -
don't count out the cubbies for bryce harperComment -
Yawn, free agency is pretty boring right now.Comment -
- Atlanta’s a speculative landing spot for closer Craig Kimbrel, who starred with the Braves from 2010-14 and is now the most proven reliever available in free agency. However, barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll rejoin the Braves this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. MLBTR predicts the 30-year-old Kimbrel will reel in a whopping $70MM guarantee, which could be too much for an Atlanta team that may not be in position to make a big-money splash this offseason, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month. Anthopoulos has made it known the Braves are interested in adding a closer this winter, though, so whether it’s Kimbrel or someone else, it appears the club is primed to bring in some late-game help.
- Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen announced Friday that he’ll undergo heart surgery Nov. 26, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com. The procedure comes with a two- to eight-week recovery timeline, meaning Jansen should be fine by spring training. It’ll be the second heart surgery since 2012 for Jansen, who missed time with an irregular heartbeat that season and during both the 2011 and ’18 campaigns. The 31-year-old has been particularly susceptible to an irregular heartbeat at high altitude – the issue cropped up in Colorado in 2012, and he was hospitalized after a game at Coors Field last August. As a result, Jansen sat out a road series against the Rockies in September on doctors’ recommendation.
- The Reds have hired J.R. House to serve as their third base coach and catching coach, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. The 39-year-old House will replace Billy Hatcher, who had been the Reds’ third base coach, and ex-catching coach Mike Stefanski, though it’s not yet known if those two will stay in the organization in different roles, per Sheldon. House, a former professional catcher and first basemen, spent the past seven seasons in player development with the Diamondbacks. He’s the third new hire for rookie manager David Bell, who previously tabbed Derek Johnson as the Reds’ pitching coach and Turner Ward as their hitting coach.
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Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen set for Nov. 26 heart surgery
Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen will have heart surgery on Nov. 26, with recovery expected to take from two to eight weeks.
The surgery, to correct Jansen's irregular heartbeat, had been expected. Jansen had a similar procedure after the 2012 season.
He is expected to be recovered and ready in time for spring training.
Jansen experienced a recurrence of his irregular heartbeat on Aug. 9 before the start of a four-game series in Colorado, with Jansen calling 911 when an accelerated heartbeat would not subside. His heart had to be shocked back into rhythm at a Denver hospital. Increased elevation can exacerbate an irregular heartbeat.
Jansen went on the 10-day disabled list with an irregular heartbeat and began taking blood-thinning medication. He struggled upon his return, giving up runs in four consecutive outings while taking a loss and blowing two save opportunities and eventually was given the OK to get off the medication.Comment -
Dodgers want Realmuto but the Marlins want Cody Bellinger and Puig or Verdugo.Comment -
the fukkin season's over man..... fuk an A man.... shiiiiitComment -
Still 4 months til spring training, so long.Comment
