Great Kirby picture, awesome!
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Today's group is guaranteed to make you feel old, with three sons of players who were all still in the majors as of 2009, and the first player born in the 2000s to appear on any of my annual top 100s.
This score of players also includes the top prospects from Miami, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Oakland.
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2017.
Top 100 prospects ranked 1-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | 81-100 | Index
60. Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets
Age: 21 (6/12/96) | B/T: R/L
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: Short-season A-ball | 2016: NR
Szapucki was the Mets’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft as a 19-year-old senior out of high school in West Palm Beach, but he pitched just two innings that summer after he signed, so he came into 2016 as just another guy in the system. Then he delivered a true breakout season, as he moved from the Appy League to the New York-Penn League and dominated at both stops. He did so working a 92-96 mph fastball with a wipeout curveball and good command of both pitches, as well as a nascent changeup that he has taken from nonexistent to average in a year.
His season ended in mid-August after just nine starts and 52 innings due to back soreness, but before that, he showed at least mid-rotation potential, between the out pitch in the curveball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. This will be a big year for him developmentally, as he’ll be asked to throw most of a full season, and his stuff alone should dominate low-A hitters. His potential to turn into even a solid No. 3 starter would be an enormous success story for a team’s fifth-round pick.
59. Kevin Maitan, SS, Atlanta Braves
Age: 17 (2/12/00) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 175
Top level: None | 2016: NE
Maitan signed with Atlanta for $4.25 million on July 2 and was considered the best offensive prospect to come out of the Latin American amateur market since Miguel Sano came out of the Dominican Republic in 2009.
The Venezuelan shortstop probably won’t stay at the position, given how big he’s likely to become, but he has earned swing comparisons to Miguel Cabrera, with big power for his age already and good feel to hit from both sides of the plate, though his right-handed swing is the better of the two right now. His swing can get long, and he might be a higher strikeout guy than Miggy was, more in the vein of Sano as a younger hitter in the low minors, but there’s real offensive upside here, as far as his hit and power tools, if he shows even a modicum of plate discipline.
In the field, Maitan has the plus arm you want for third base, but even if he stays 6-foot-2, he could easily end up in the 210-220-pound range, and he isn’t a lock to stay on the dirt. He’s on this list because of the unanimous assessments of international scouts that he’s a different level of hitting prospect than we’ve seen come out of Latin America this decade, and Atlanta might have its next middle-of-the-order prospect thanks to the decision to blow out its 2016 international budget to sign him.
58. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Age: 23 (2/4/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 160
Top level: MLB | 2016: 78
Tapia has hit .300 at every stop since he was 18 in the Dominican Summer League, even in the Arizona Fall League, right up until his 41 PA major league debut in 2016. He rarely walked, made a ton of contact and showed extra-base power everywhere he played. Tapia has incredible hand-eye coordination and plus bat speed, which allows him to hit like he does despite a hilariously wide stance at the plate that would sink most hitters. His plate coverage is excellent, with his only significant hole being front and back if his timing is off. He’s a plus runner who has really not had enough success on the bases for his speed, and he is an average defender in center who’ll be bumped to a corner by David Dahl.
Tapia could be someone’s center fielder, but he’ll probably end up in right field for the Rockies, and Coors Field is a friendly place for a high-contact hitter such as Tapia, who should be good for 35-40 doubles a year as a Rockie with high batting averages but mediocre OBPs, which makes him a very good regular but probably less than a star.
57. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Age: 20 (1/17/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190
Top level: High-A | 2016: 67
Law's 2017 Prospect Ranks
Jan. 18: Farm system rankings, 30-21
Jan. 19: System rankings, 20-11
Jan. 20: System rankings, 10-1
Jan. 23: Prospects Nos. 100-81
Jan. 24: Nos. 80-61
Jan. 25: Nos. 60-41
Jan. 26: Nos. 40-21
Jan. 27: Nos. 20-1
Jan. 27: Full index of Top 100
Jan. 28: Prospects who missed
Jan. 30: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL East and NL East
Jan. 31: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL Central and NL Central
Feb. 1: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL West and NL West
Feb. 2: Top prospects by position
Feb. 3: Sleepers
» Law's 2017 rankings
» Law's 2016 rankings
The fifth overall pick in 2015, Tucker had a solid full-season debut for Low-A Quad Cities. He hit .276/.348/.402 as a 19-year-old with solid plate discipline, then moved up to destroy Lancaster because hitting there is like playing on the surface of the moon. (The Astros must be overjoyed to move their high-A affiliate out of the California League to the Carolina League.)
Tucker played more center in 2016 than either corner, but I think he’s clearly going to end up in right field, given his average speed and plus arm. He showed great feel for hitting and baserunning in 2016, especially in his approach at the plate, and though his power output was modest, his swing is definitely geared to produce more extra-base hits and around 20 homers a year when he fills out.
I did hear from some scouts who were just tepid on Tucker, saying he doesn’t play with much energy and calling him a “low motor” guy, though I find those observations tough to verify or refute. Assuming that isn't a problem, he should be primed for a solid step forward in 2017, adjusting to better pitching in high-A and perhaps bringing some more of his batting practice power into games.
56. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
Age: 21 (2/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 190
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 22
Barreto has a lot of pure ability that has gotten him up to a brief trial in Triple-A, though the season also exposed some questions about his game that have hurt his value. On the plus side, Barreto can really barrel up a fastball, and after a slow start in 2016, he returned to his usual offensive ways as the season went on, making solid contact to all fields, albeit without present power or much hope of it in the future. He’s a plus runner with quick feet at shortstop but might still end up moving to second base or even center field.
Barreto’s star has dimmed somewhat after 2016, including a rough showing in the Arizona Fall League, in which he was eaten alive by breaking stuff and was erratic (to be kind) in the field. There’s also gossip that he hasn’t shown the work ethic required to make himself into a solid defensive shortstop. His bat will still play at second or center, and even as bad as he looked at times in the AFL, he put the ball in play more than three-fourths of the time, but if he wants to stay at short or reach his full potential as an above-average everyday player, he’s going to have to boost his effort.
55. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 22 (7/20/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 215
Top level: High-A | 2016: 52
Alford’s 2016 season started as an outright disaster. He played one game in April, got hurt, returned four weeks later, then struck out in 30 of his first 57 PAs over two weeks and 51 out of 134 total before he was injured in an outfield collision June 11, which cost him another 10 days. After that second DL stint, he hit .256/.379/.447 over 59 games through the end of the season, with a much better 25 percent strikeout rate. He finished with a so-so performance in the AFL.
Overall, it was a year to forget, culminating in a fire that destroyed his mother’s house right after Christmas (he set up a Gofundme page to help them rebuild). Alford is still an elite athlete and looked in 2016 like a former football player still adjusting to playing baseball full time.
When healthy, he’s a disciplined hitter for someone so inexperienced, and there’s at least average power to go with plus running speed. His reads in center might just not be good enough for him to stay there, though again, it might be his lack of baseball experience showing. On the whole, it was a sideways year for Alford, but the positive news is he’s healthy and will be the right age (22) for his Double-A debut in 2017.
54. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 22 (3/31/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 64
Yes, Virginia, there is a screwball, and I’ve even seen Honeywell throw it with my own eyes, but that’s not going to be his ticket to a major league rotation. When he’s right, Honeywell is a four-pitch guy, with a straight fastball coming in at 92-97 mph, a plus changeup in the low 80s, a new slider/cutter in the upper 80s that’s fringy right now and the aforementioned screwball, which comes in at 85-86 mph when I saw it with some tailing action.
The screwball is a different look for hitters, but Honeywell's success is going to come from the whole repertoire, with the changeup more likely to become his out pitch. However, when I saw him pitch in the AFL, he was all the way on the extreme first-base end of the rubber, so his fastball was right over the plate for right-handed batters, something they can probably fix quickly just by moving him to the center.
Honeywell missed about six weeks in 2016 with arm soreness, and though he returned intact, it’s a concern to see a pitcher who has a trick pitch -- one that, according to conventional wisdom (but no hard evidence), causes elbow problems -- come up sore. If the cutter becomes an average or better pitch, that will give him four legitimate major league options, with at least one plus, which puts him right into fourth starter territory, with a chance to be as much as a No. 2, given health and the development of his non-screwball weapons.
53. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Age: 21 (10/24/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: High-A | 2016: 98
Gordon can really, really hit, and while his offensive potential isn’t that great because of the lack of power, I think he’s going to hit for high averages for a very long time. He will also surprise people with his defensive prowess because his feel for both sides of the game is so incredible.
Gordon has exceptional hands at the plate and in the field, so his bat is quick, and he makes a ton of contact, though he should be hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls, given his swing path. He can square up good velocity and adjusted very well to breaking stuff down and away when I last saw him in the AFL. He’s running just average now after being a tick above that in high school, so if that isn't part of his game, he will need to get the ball in the air more often because he isn't going to be beating ground balls to the left side.
On defense, he’s the antithesis of the flashy shortstop, but he has a knack for getting himself in the right place to make the difficult play. The tools say he’ll be an average big leaguer, but I believe his instincts and understanding of the game will allow him to be more.
52. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (5/2/98) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 170
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE
Anderson was the third overall pick in June, a big, strong right-hander from upstate New York who didn’t pitch much around bad weather and some non-arm health issues, but he looked every bit of the high first-rounder after signing. Anderson was throwing 94-97 mph this summer with a hammer curveball and a workable changeup, showing more control than command in his brief time in the Gulf Coast and Appy Leagues.
His 6-foot-3 frame is already filling out, and he looks like he’ll be a workhorse starter. Even in the shuffling madness of Atlanta’s glut of pitching prospects, he might be ready to jump up to low-A Rome to start 2017. Building stamina for a full season, working on fastball command and improving that changeup will all be key development points for Anderson. Atlanta feels it might have a future No. 1 starter, though I think he’s more of a No. 2, which is still a tremendous outcome for the third pick in any draft.
51. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 220
Top level: MLB | 2016: NR
Kelly has been catching for only three years, but in that span, he has become a good enough receiver and thrower that he projects as an everyday backstop, with the chance to become more depending on how his bat develops. His offense took a backseat for years while the Cardinals worked with him on his defense, but he’s an intelligent, diligent kid who threw himself into the task, and the results are very promising, as he’s at least an average receiver now and has nailed about a third of opposing base stealers in the minors.
At the plate, Kelly is a tough out. He has never struck out more than 64 times in a pro season but is still learning ‘his’ strike zone, such as making better choices of when to swing and when to take. Kelly hasn’t hit for much power in pro ball, but there’s some raw juice in there, as he showed with a big home run at Petco Park in the Futures Game. His swing isn’t geared for huge home run totals, with a short load and path into the zone, but he could end up in the 10-12 homer range with high averages as he learns to make hard contact.
Everyday catchers are hard to find and the offensive standard is low, so Kelly looks like a very likely regular, with a chance to be more if his bat develops further, as the old saw about catching prospects says it might.
50. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23 (1/18/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 96
Fried missed almost two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery, throwing just 10 innings in all of 2014, then returning to official games in April 2016 after 21 months of rehab and recovery, but all signs from this past year were positive.
Fried was throwing up to 97 mph by the end of the year, with the plus curveball still there and good feel for his changeup. He’s an outstanding athlete with a bit of a long arm action, but he repeats it well, and as he showed by the end of the year, he’s a strike-thrower with a good chance to develop future-plus command. His walk rate improved in the second half of his season, and his strikeout rate increased. If you split his season in half, in his past 10 outings, he went 49⅔ innings, walked 15 and struck out 64, with a 3.08 ERA.
I’ve long had Fried projected as an above-average starter, a No. 3 in a good rotation or a No. 2 in others, but if he can keep that mid-90s velocity as a starter for a full season, that projection might turn out to be low.
49. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 23 (8/17/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 41
Winker probably would have reached the majors last year, were it not for an early-season wrist injury that hindered his hitting and power until he took three weeks off to let it heal. He hit .320/.415/.403 after his return, rarely striking out. Although the power was still down from the previous year, a .400 OBP and 30-35 doubles will make you an everyday player in left field. Winker is a gifted hitter with an extraordinary approach at the plate that he has had since he entered pro ball, and though I don’t think he’ll ever hit 20 homers in a season, 2016 was the first time he failed to reach double digits, and I think he’ll settle in the 10-15 range as a big league regular.
There isn’t big upside here -- Winker hasn’t changed much at all since high school, physically or in his approach -- but there’s a very high floor, and he’s ready to play in the majors right now. The one way he could surprise us and become a star is if he hits for higher averages than I’m forecasting, which would mean trading 20 ground balls a year for line drives, something his swing would permit but he just hasn’t done yet.
48. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 18 (3/16/99) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 200
Top level: Rookie | 2016: 40
Yes, that’s Vlad’s son, and yes, you are old. Vlad Jr. signed with the Jays for $3.9 million in July 2015, and the Jays were aggressive in sending him to the Appalachian League at age 17 last summer, but he exceeded even those high expectations. Guerrero was the best hitting prospect in the Appy League, walking almost as often as he struck out, and he finished in the top 10 in the league in homers and walks. By all accounts, he played solid defense at third base (with a plus arm, natch).
While Guerrero has outstanding tools, including surprising speed and projected plus power, it’s his feel for the game that impressed scouts in 2016, as he shows real instincts on both sides of the ball, including that advanced approach and enough feel that he has at least an even-money chance to stay at third. The sky is the limit for young Vladimir, and if he doesn’t outgrow the hot corner, the Jays might have a 30-homer bat who gets on base to take over when Josh Donaldson leaves.
47. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS/3B, San Diego Padres
Age: 18 (1/2/99) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: Short-season A-ball | 2016: NR
Tatis signed with the White Sox in 2015 for $825,000 but never played an official game for them, as they traded him with Erik Johnson to San Diego in June for James Shields, with Tatis still in extended spring training at the time. Within a few weeks, it became evident that the Padres had landed an outstanding prospect in the least-known part of the deal, as Tatis blew scouts in the AZL away and held his own at 17 in the advanced short-season Northwest League.
Tatis is an advanced hitter already at 17, with great feel for the game on both sides of the ball, including a good hitting approach for that age and a strong frame (he has his father’s square shoulders) that should produce at least average power but probably more. His hands are loose, and he has a quick transfer in the field with a plus arm, so if the body moves him to third base in time -- as is about 80 percent likely -- he has the arm for it and will be at least a 60-grade defender there.
There’s upside across the board here, from the physical tools to the makeup to the incredible feel for the game in a kid who would be a high school senior right now if he were U.S.-born. There’s risk, given his age, but we might look back on this deal in a few years and call it the Fernando Tatis trade.
46. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (3/7/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 175
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR
Law's 2017 prospect methodology
I see players all year long, as amateurs, in pro ball, at the Futures Game and in the Arizona Fall League. If I've seen a player, my scouting report becomes the foundation of his capsule and his ranking here. I can't see every player, and sometimes I see a player only once on a day that isn't representative of his abilities, so I supplement all my content with conversations with various scouts and with at least one executive with every MLB team who has seen his team's prospects enough to discuss them and suggest how I might rank them.
I refer within player capsules and descriptions to grades on player tools and overall forecasts, using the industry standard 20-80 scale.
» Complete methodology
For raw stuff, Alvarez might be the best pitching prospect in the minors. He’ll work in the upper 90s and can show you a plus slider now and again, but the lack of consistency and command hold him out of the upper tier of this list. Alvarez signed as an amateur free agent out of Cuba for $16 million in 2016, which meant the Dodgers paid double that including the penalty for exceeding their bonus cap, so he’d better have a good arm … and he does. But he showed up last summer struggling to find the plate, so he didn’t debut in pro ball until this year’s Arizona League.
The Dodgers slowed his tempo, so Alvarez’s delivery is more deliberate now, to the point that it’s surprising how hard he’s throwing, and he’s staying on top of the ball and getting more online to the plate. The slider is good, but the big power curveball might end up better if he focuses on that pitch. He might pitch with four distinct offerings, two or even three grading plus, but it’s thrown with grade 40 command, which would make him a big league starter but maybe just an average one. If the command improves -- and there’s no delivery-related reason it can’t -- then he has a chance to profile anywhere up to the top of a rotation.
45. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 24 (6/11/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 225
Top level: MLB | 2016: 82
Alfaro returned from an injury-shortened 2015 to have a much better offensive season while repeating Double-A, and he showed enough progress as a receiver that the Phillies appear committed to leaving him behind the plate in the long run. Alfaro’s physical gifts have always been apparent -- he has an 80 arm and 80 raw power -- but his plate discipline has ranged from bad to awful, and he was often indifferent behind the plate unless it was time to throw someone out.
The latter problem appears to have dissipated this past year, as all accounts have Alfaro more active behind the plate, moving his feet better, blocking more balls and taking more of a role in game-calling. As for plate discipline, he might never be much of an OBP guy, but he did improve his contact rate the second time through Double-A, though I’d still like to at least see him work the count to get himself ahead, even if it doesn’t produce more walks.
Given this improvement, it seems like he’s going to be an everyday catcher in the majors, and a reasonable projection for Alfaro of .270/.300/450 with a caught-stealing rate of 35-40 percent would likely make him an above-average regular.
44. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
Age: 25 (4/26/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 275
Top level: MLB | 2016: 36
Judge struggled with contact in the majors -- with 42 strikeouts in 95 plate appearances. But that’s nothing new for him: Judge punched out in 29 percent of his PAs in his first month in Double-A, then cut it to 23 percent for the next six weeks and was promoted to Triple-A, whereupon he did the same thing: 28 percent in his first Triple-A stint in 2015 and down to 24 percent in 2016, after which he came to the majors.
Judge is enormous -- 6-foot-7 and listed at 275 pounds -- with a strike zone to match. Covering the inner third and the outside corner simultaneously has been an ongoing challenge for him, with pitchers at each level commanding the ball better to exploit this issue. He has shown that he can tighten up his discipline after some time at each level, though doing so in the majors will be the hardest challenge he has faced.
But if Judge gets that back down to that 25-30 percent range, he’ll be an offensive force because the contact he makes is so hard. He has real 30-homer power, even at that contact rate, and he has shown enough patience that I think he’ll walk 60-plus times a year. With his athleticism -- he’s an average runner -- and plus arm, he’d be an asset in right field, all of which adds up to more than just an everyday player.
43. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 21 (9/2/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2016: NR
Adames has a pretty right-handed swing that looks almost effortless, and in 2016, that swing started to produce, even though he was promoted at age 20 to Double-A. Every statistical indicator moved up for Adames in 2016 -- he hit for a higher average and more power, he walked more, he struck out less and slightly upped his line-drive rate. He even set a career high with 13 steals, though he’s a below-average runner and that isn't going to be part of his game. Just looking at his frame and the angle of his swing, it seems extremely likely that he’ll add at least one more grade of power, and he should be a 20-plus homer guy in the majors.
On defense, Adames probably isn’t going to stay at shortstop, though the Rays are adamant that he can. His hands are fine, but he isn't fast or agile, and his lateral range isn’t going to be as good as what most big league shortstops provide. He’d be an ideal third baseman in build, in arm strength and in offensive profile, but maybe he breaks into the majors as a shortstop for a year or two.
He’s so young that a full year in Triple-A to consolidate the gains he made and work on his defense at whatever position they try would make sense, but I feel much better about Adames' becoming an above-average hitter at either position than I did this time last year, when his best attribute was his youth.
42. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 19 (8/5/97) | B/T: B/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE
It’s hard to not like a pitching machine such as Garrett, as high school pitchers with his kind of stuff rarely bring his kind of command. The time I saw him, he struck out 15 batters in seven innings and threw only 11 called balls the entire game.
He’s mostly throwing heat around 90-93 mph, complemented with a plus curveball right now. He throws both pitches for strikes, getting swing-and-misses on the curveball as well, but he will also show an average changeup with good arm speed. Garrett’s delivery doesn’t have much effort to it, and he finishes well out front to get good, late downward bite on that breaking ball.
I don’t know if there’s a huge ceiling here, as Garrett might add a little velocity but not a ton, and the curveball is already a swing-and-miss offering. But he’s more likely than any 19-year-old pitcher on this list to end up an average big league starter, and I think he ends up comfortably above average for a very long time.
41. Isan Diaz, 2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21 (5/27/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR
The Diamondbacks got more out of Jean Segura than they had any right to expect, as he produced a five-win season and allowed the new regime in Phoenix to flip him to Seattle for two former top prospects, but the part of that deal that is going to sting is Diaz.
Born in Puerto Rico, Diaz was drafted in the second round out of western Massachusetts, seemed a bit overmatched in rookie ball his first summer but has really broken out the past two years now, including a 20-homer, 72-walk season as a 20-year-old in the full-season Midwest League in 2016. Diaz led the league in homers and walks and finished sixth in doubles, which mitigates the part about his leading the league in strikeouts too. He’s a left-handed hitter with explosive hips that provide bat speed and the rotational action that produces power from his 5-foot-10 frame.
He has played short and second, but his body and arm will push him to the latter position as he moves up the ladder. He’s athletic enough to be a 50/55 defender at the keystone. But it’s the bat that sells him. He is already showing on-base skills and power at a young age, and it will take only marginal growth to make him a big league regular, with the potential for more if he improves his swing choices as he moves up.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Looking forward to seeing Vlad's son. When he gets called up!
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9:44pm: There are a pair of option years in the deal, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
8:54pm: The Cardinals are set to finalize agreement with starter Carlos Martinez on a five-year, $51MM extension, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter and in a post). It is not yet clear whether it includes option years, Heyman notes. An announcement is expected tomorrow. The sides were said to be “making progress” in extension talks, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who noted that a deal in excess of $50MM over five years was likely for the Octagon client.
Martinez and the Cards have long been engaged on a long-term deal, and now won’t have to wait for Spring Training to wrap them up. The sides were set for a hearing over the 25-year-old’s first-year arbitration salary, with him filing for $4.25MM and the team submitting at $3.9MM. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, for what it’s worth, wrote recently that he felt Martinez was worth a lot more in view of his arb comps.)
We recently assessed Martinez’s extension candidacy, which in many ways lacked appropriate comparables to help guide a deal. As explained in that piece, a contract that landed somewhere between those reached by Corey Kluber ($38.5MM over five years, with two options) and Matt Harrison ($55MM over five years, with one option) seemed to make sense. Indeed, that’s just what appears to be in the works. As Heyman notes, the deal constitutes a record for a first-time, arb-eligible pitcher. Martinez tops Kluber, who was a Super Two and also significantly older, in setting the new mark. .
With the move, the Cards now control Martinez through at least 2021 — his age-29 season. A power righty with two outstanding breaking balls and a useful change-up, Martinez carries an ace’s arsenal. He hasn’t quite reached that lofty status, but could well be on his way. Martinez owns a 3.02 ERA since the start of the 2015 season, so the results are already excellent. Though he hasn’t yet sustained top-end strikeout numbers — he owns 8.5 K/9 and 10.4% swinging-strike rate for his career — Martinez arguably has the capacity to do so. He also boosted his groundball rate to a robust 56.4% in 2016 and has a track record of limiting hard contact and home runs. If Martinez can continue to improve his change, and further boost his performance against left-handed hitters, he has a chance to deliver enormous value over the life of the contract.
Durability, of course, is another key factor. Martinez did approach the 200-inning level last year, notching 195 1/3 frames after spinning 179 2/3 the season prior, but still needs to prove he can chew up innings year-in, year-out. He’ll surely be given the opportunity now to work later into games and establish himself as a true workhorse. A related area to watch is health. Though Martinez’s track record in that regard is a good one, youngsters who throw so many hard pitches have been shown to have slightly elevated risk of requiring Tommy John surgery. (For more, check out the work of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum; see here for an explanation; here for individual player results.)Comment -
Tatis Jr could be a stud..Comment -
Sons of former players haven't been faring well lately. Though Cam Bedrosian should close for the Angels this season.Comment -
Three more players from the 2016 draft class appear here, along with five prospects who've already been traded since they first entered pro ball.
As the numbers get smaller here, you'll notice the prospects I'm ranking have higher and higher upsides, and we're past the part of the list where the higher-floor but lower-ceiling prospects reside.
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2017.
Top 100 prospects ranked 1-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | 81-100 | Index
40. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 (7/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 175
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR
Buehler was headed for a top 15 pick in the 2015 MLB draft before his junior season, but missed time with a sore elbow, pitched poorly down the stretch, and slipped to the Dodgers at 24th overall, only to have the team confirm during his post-draft physical that he’d need Tommy John surgery. When he returned to the mound in 2016, he was a completely different animal, touching 100 mph with his fastball and sitting in the mid-90s, even though he said he wasn’t doing anything different to try to throw harder.
The big variable around Buehler’s projection is what his stuff will look like during a regular season of work where he’s pitching deeper into games. Buehler threw 92-95 mph as a starter before the injury, typically working once a week, then 88-92 mph a few weeks before he was drafted; his summer 2016 spike was an entirely new level of velocity and arm speed, and we don’t know if he’ll maintain it. He had an above-average slider and changeup before the injury, but scouts have always been concerned about his slight build holding up in a 200-inning role. If he stays healthy and holds this newfound velocity, he’s a top 25 prospect, and could race through the low minors to the big leagues as soon as his workload permits.
39. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 25 (5/3/92) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 210
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 86
Garrett has made enormous progress during his three full years in pro ball, since he gave up basketball and committed to more than just a few weeks on the diamond every summer. He is now in line for a spot on the Reds’ major-league staff. Garrett pitches consistently at 92-94 mph and can touch 96, showing an above-average slider at 82-84 mph and an average or better changeup in a similar range, coming from a slot a little under three-quarters that makes him death on left-handed hitters -- he punched out over 30 percent of lefties he faced in 2016 across two levels.
Garrett’s main issue has always been command. He’s about as athletic a pitcher as I’ve ever seen, and his arm works well, but it’s all so loose and easy that he can struggle to get to the same release point consistently. When he reached Triple-A last summer, he struggled for the first time in full-season ball, even though his raw stuff was still there. I believe strongly in betting on highly athletic kids like Garrett to make adjustments, the way Jeff Samardzija -- another two-sport guy who didn’t play baseball full-time until after college -- did in his late 20s, and could see Garrett working on command for a year in the Reds’ bullpen before he becomes a midrotation starter.
38. Lewis Brinson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 23 (5/8/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 32
Brinson remains more tools than production at this point, struggling in his second stint in Double-A with the Rangers before the Brewers traded for him in July. But he’s also not that far off from an offensive level that would make him a major-league regular. Brinson is a gifted athlete who runs well, plays outstanding defense in center and has electric wrists that give him the bat speed to produce plus raw power -- which hasn’t shown up that much in games because he has often struggled with contact. He did post the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2016, and while he can be aggressive, his hands are so loose it’s a little surprising that he didn’t make more hard contact this past year.
If anything, the bigger concern going forward is his history of injuries, as he’s reached 110 games in just one season since he first signed, losing a month of 2016 to a shoulder strain, although he played marginally better after his return. Brinson will turn 23 in May and should start the year in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs, Colorado, where he’ll probably put up some great superficial numbers. His defense is so good that he can be a regular even with a .300 OBP and his kind of raw power, but he’s ranked here because any further increase in his contact rate or the quality of the contact he’s making would make him a star.
37. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Age: 21 (11/24/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 225
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 40
Martes gets a lot of Johnny Cueto comparisons, which fits both in terms of his physical appearance and his style of pitching, which is very aggressive and has him throwing both his fastball and breaking ball for strikes. When he’s online to the plate, Martes will throw heat that sits in the low 90s with good sink, but he can reach back for 98-99 mph up in the zone to try to get a swing and miss, and he’ll show a 70 curveball with short, hard break, along with a hard changeup that comes in 89-90 with some cutting action but probably needs to be slower.
Martes’ delivery can come apart on him, and when he flies open at release -- which he did in his first outing at the AFL, which I saw -- everything flies up to his arm side, so hitters square up on his fastball and he can’t finish his breaking ball out front. Frances just turned 21 in November and has already succeeded in Double-A, so there’s time to work on getting his delivery consistent start to start, and he should appear in the majors at some point this year, with the potential for him to be a solid No. 2 starter or more depending on that delivery question.
36. Ronald Acuna, CF, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (12/18/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR
Acuna’s big breakout season was cut short when he tore ligaments in his thumb suffered on a head-first slide. The injury limited him to just 40 games for low-A Rome where he hit .311/.387/.432 with a 16 percent strikeout rate as an 18-year-old, although he did go to Australia this winter to make up for some of the lost at-bats.
Acuna is a four-tool player now, with the chance to develop power in time as he fills out physically. He has a simple but hard swing, making it all the more impressive that he so rarely struck out last summer. He’s a plus runner but not a terribly instinctive one yet, with his speed playing up more on defense than on the bases.
Had Acuna raked over a full season, I likely would have had him higher on this list, but the sample is a little small for that since he didn’t have to face pitchers multiple times. He does have the ceiling of an elite player -- a .300/.375 AVG/OBP guy with 15-plus homers and plus-plus defense in center, which could make him a top 10 or 15 player in the league if he gets there.
35. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Age: 18 (9/8/98) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 170
Top level: Short-season A-ball | 2016: NR
Law's 2017 Prospect Ranks
Jan. 18: Farm system rankings, 30-21
Jan. 19: System rankings, 20-11
Jan. 20: System rankings, 10-1
Jan. 23: Prospects Nos. 100-81
Jan. 24: Nos. 80-61
Jan. 25: Nos. 60-41
Jan. 26: Nos. 40-21
Jan. 27: Nos. 20-1
Jan. 27: Full index of Top 100
Jan. 28: Prospects who missed
Jan. 30: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL East and NL East
Jan. 31: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL Central and NL Central
Feb. 1: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL West and NL West
Feb. 2: Top prospects by position
Feb. 3: Sleepers
» Law's 2017 rankings
» Law's 2016 rankings
Taveras is one of the youngest players on this list, turning 18 in September after the season had ended, but he is clearly the Rangers’ best prospect and one of their only potential stars. Taveras looks the part of a toolsy 17-year-old baseball prospect, and while that’s true of a lot of teenagers in this system, he’s got more present baseball ability than other similarly toolsy prospects in Texas' low minors. Even so, Taveras has a live body that’s more projection than present performance. For example, he’ll show plus raw power in BP, but he hit just one homer in 333 PAs last summer at age 17.
He’s a plus defender in center now and has a plus arm, with above-average running speed (I had scouts vary their run grades from average to plus). The biggest discrepancy I heard was on his feel to hit now. While everyone agreed he’s going to hit in time, he might not be ready for full-season ball this year as an 18-year-old. That doesn’t alter his ceiling necessarily, but changes his probability because we may be projecting more improvement on the bat. Everyone I asked agreed that he’s a future 60, a well above-average regular who’ll make some All-Star teams, but that might not happen until 2020 or later.
34. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 22 (9/22/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE
Ray was the top prospect on my board in this year’s draft class, and while he was somewhat surpassed this summer by a few other players who showed more in their pro debuts, Ray also was pushed very aggressively to high-A right out of the draft, which exposed some of his weaknesses in a way that no other recent draftee experienced.
Ray has above-average tools across the board except on defense. He’s fleet enough for center but didn’t play it well in college, with the University of Louisville coaches moving him to left field (where, in my opinion, he was worse) late in games to put in a superior defender in center. Defense often gets better in pro ball where there is more instruction, and Ray has the athletic ability to play in the middle if his reads improve. At the plate, he has a patient approach and recognizes pitches well, and isn’t afraid to run deep counts to try to get a favorable pitch to drive.
I thought Ray offered the best combination of probability -- he had well over a 50 percent chance to be a good big-leaguer in some role -- and chance to be an above-average regular, a guy who hits .280/.360/.460 with at least average defense in center field. He may be behind a few guys with higher ceilings now (Quantrill, Groome, Senzel, Rutherford), but I still see the same future for Ray as I did in June.
33. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 (8/4/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 23
Newman was one of the toughest hitters in pro ball to strike out in 2016, whiffing just 36 times in 457 plate appearances across two levels. By comparison, no MLB hitter with at least 400 PA struck out that infrequently, with Andrelton Simmons coming closest at 38. So Newman can put the ball in play, but in 2016 he started to put it in the air more often and show some power, even after a midyear promotion to Double-A. The Pirates have worked to close his stance a little bit so he can pull the ball more.
Newman also worked extensively with manager Joey Cora at Double-A on his defense at short, where his hands are his best tool and his range has improved. He’s an average runner, down a bit from college, maybe 50 out of the box and 55 underway, enough to stretch some hits for an extra base but not likely to be a 20-steals guy.
He’s going to have to continue to develop extra-base power to become more than an everyday player at short, or, as one scout suggested, a “Joe Maddon kind of super-utility player” who moves all over the place but plays regularly because of his bat. There’s enough pure hit tool here to get him an everyday job, most likely as Pittsburgh’s shortstop within the year.
32. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (8/13/97) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 43
Allard was the 14th pick in the 2015 draft, sliding out of the top 10 because of a stress reaction in his lower back that didn’t affect his long-term outlook but meant he barely pitched in his senior year of high school. He dominated the short-season Appy League in five starts, then moved up to full-season Rome and still struck out more than a man per inning in 11 starts there, all while working on short pitch counts and maxing out at 93 in a single outing.
Allard works in the low 90s, touching 95-96, with his fastball, and has a knockout curveball that’s plus now and could end up a 70 as he fills out. His changeup is solid-average now, trending upward as well, as he barely used it in high school (before the injury). Allard is not necessarily built for 200 innings, as he’s a shade taller than 6 feet and under 200 pounds, but his arm works so easily that he looks like a lower risk for arm injury -- and it means his average command could end up plus as well. I think he ends up a No. 2 starter, with some downside risk here given his youth and track record of just 93 ⅔ innings so far in pro ball.
31. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (5/15/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 51
Verdugo has raced up the Dodgers’ chain with Cody Bellinger, and while Bellinger has emerged as a likely cornerstone player, Verdugo isn’t that far behind him. Verdugo was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2014, a year after they took Bellinger, and the Dodgers were aggressive with both of them, assigning them to Double-A in 2016 in their age-20 seasons. (Bellinger is 10 months older, but his birthday is in July, so their seasonal ages, determined by age on July 1st, are the same.)
Verdugo was the youngest regular in the Texas League this year, and was above the league average in all three rate stats, yet had the third-lowest strikeout rate of anyone who played half a season or more there. (Second was fellow Dodgers prospect Willie Calhoun, who can hit but lacks a position.) Verdugo has played more center in pro ball, but there’s at least a 60/40 chance he’ll move to right field in favor of a better defender, although with good range and an 80 arm he could be an elite glove in the corner.
The main concern on Verdugo isn’t skill; he can hit and should grow into above-average power. But his makeup is an issue, as Verdugo is a very intense player who has acted out in front of scouts in ways that seem to be affecting his trade value. He wouldn’t be the first 20-year-old who needs to grow up, and there are few 20-year-olds with his pure ability to square up a baseball.
30. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 19 (5/13/98) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE
The first pick in the 2016 draft, Moniak is a high-floor, teenage-position-player prospect, meaning he’s more likely to play in the big leagues than 90 percent of high school prospects taken high in the draft. In Moniak’s case, it’s a combination of his defensive value, his makeup and scouts’ faith in his bat that gives him that designation, although I think it shortchanges his potential upside during the long haul into his late 20s.
For now, Moniak is a true center fielder who is a plus runner and should end up a plus defender at that spot because he’s rangy and gets good reads. At the plate, despite his height, Moniak has a short swing that produces a lot of line drives, and he uses the whole field well but doesn’t pull the ball much for power or drop the bat head to get some more loft into his finish. He’s a four-tool guy, lacking the power, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could find power with some small changes to his swing, especially where and how he starts his hands.
If the Phillies simply don’t want to mess with a good thing, however, Moniak might end up an All-Star anyway because you could say it’s a future 70 bat on a true center fielder who will add value with his glove. That’s the kind of high-floor prospect I like.
29. Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets
Age: 22 (6/15/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 250
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 29
I’ve written since Smith was an amateur that he has raw power, but in his first two seasons in full-season ball he hit just seven homers, as playing his home games in very pitcher-friendly parks led him to focus on going the other way. In 2016, he started pulling the ball more, and hit 14 homers, more than doubling his career total to date, along with 29 doubles to finish with a .302/.367/.457 line. Smith is an extraordinarily disciplined, calm hitter, striking out in just 13 percent of his plate appearances last year, showing an advanced two-strike approach and willingness to use the whole field. In addition to just generally pulling the ball more in 2016, Smith also got the ball in the air more often, which is critical to boosting his batting average since he’s a well below-average runner.
Smith is an above-average defender at first whose 70 arm is sort of wasted at the position, and has worked this offseason on improving his conditioning, which was a concern last year as he was playing at what I’ll politely call the top end of the acceptable range for his weight. There’s still untapped power here, but given the progress Smith has already made in games this year, I expect 20-plus homers from him this year or next along with the same high averages and doubles totals he posted in 2015 and 2016.
28. James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees
Age: 23 (3/2/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 200
Top level: High-A | 2016: 87
Law's 2017 prospect methodology
I see players all year long, as amateurs, in pro ball, at the Futures Game and in the Arizona Fall League. If I've seen a player, my scouting report becomes the foundation of his capsule and his ranking here. I can't see every player, and sometimes I see a player only once on a day that isn't representative of his abilities, so I supplement all my content with conversations with various scouts and with at least one executive with every MLB team who has seen his team's prospects enough to discuss them and suggest how I might rank them.
I refer within player capsules and descriptions to grades on player tools and overall forecasts, using the industry standard 20-80 scale.
» Complete methodology
Kaprielian came to spring training throwing fire, touching 97 mph regularly, a whole level of arm speed beyond what he had shown at UCLA. Then he carried it through four regular-season starts before his elbow barked and the Yankees shut him down -- for the entire season, as it turned out, only bringing him back for the Arizona Fall League. In his first outing there, he was throwing 94-97 in three dominant innings with a hard slider clocked anywhere from 82-89 mph, complemented with a string-puller changeup in the mid-80s. That’s three plus pitches from a guy who is now built like a brick house.
There’s a little effort to his delivery, although less than you’d expect given that stuff, and just a minimal leg kick to get his rhythm going, but I can’t see changing a thing now that he’s completely recovered from the injury. Had he done this all season last year, he’d be in the top 20. I’ve got him ranked here to reflect the greater risk of a catastrophic injury that I think he has compared to pitchers who have never missed this kind of time. But do not mistake the ranking for a lack of faith in Kaprielian the pitcher, who has ace probability commensurate with those near the top of the 100.
27. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 22 (9/6/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 72
Frazier was the headliner in the package of prospects going to the Bronx for Andrew Miller, having reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old after a year and a half of raking his way up from A-ball. He has absolutely electric bat speed that produces above-average power, probably never in the 30-homer range but certainly 15-20 on a consistent basis with high batting averages and a lot of doubles.
Frazier has also boosted his contact rates since a rough go of things in his first full year in pro ball, although I think his swing is so fast and hard that he can be overconfident and chase offspeed stuff, when he needs to learn to lay off. Frazier has played all over the outfield in pro ball, but he’s going to be pushed to a corner, more likely left, by faster and rangier players in center. Given how he’s hit to date, with consistently high BABIPs because he makes hard contact, he’s one of the best bets in the minors to hit .300+, and with moderate power and 50-60 walks a year that would make him at least an above-average regular.
26. Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Age: 20 (1/7/97) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 160
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 20
Albies was Atlanta’s heir apparent at shortstop until Arizona gifted the Braves Dansby Swanson in the Shelby Miller deal, so Albies will move to second base which might be the best position for him anyway. Though Albies is actually just 5-foot-6 in person (as opposed to his ‘official’ height) and was just 19 years old last year, he’s fierce at the plate, hitting .300-plus at every level he’s played except Triple-A in a split season.
Albies’ swing is compact, producing hard contact but minimal power. He’s not likely to get to more than 10-12 homers a year given the swing mechanics and his tendency to hit the ball on the ground. He’s a plus runner who will gain some extra hits from his legs, and should end up a well above-average second baseman given his agility and the fact that he was at least going to end up capable at shortstop. Albies should become the player Howie Kendrick was supposed to be -- a high-average and thus high-OBP second baseman who steals 20-30 bags a year.
25. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 (8/23/93) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 220
Top level: MLB | 2016: 6
It wasn’t a great year for pitching prospects reaching the majors, with most of them struggling with the transition to the tougher level and different baseball, Glasnow among them. But anyone heading for the exits on him now is probably being too reactive, as he’s the same guy he was a year ago -- a highly athletic, big right-hander with two-plus pitches who is still just 23 years old.
Glasnow will touch 98 mph and pitches in the mid-90s with good downhill plane. His height and extension give him additional deception on his fastball and some propensity to get ground balls. His slider is also plus and his most likely swing-and-miss pitch when he reaches the majors, but his changeup still lags behind the other two pitches and is too firm to be a viable weapon against left-handed hitters right now.
Glasnow had shown steady improvement every year until 2016, especially in command and control, before plateauing in Triple-A. However, pitchers this tall often take time to develop consistency in their deliveries to allow them to throw quality strikes. His delivery works, he’s athletic and he’s young with barely 540 pro innings behind him. It may take time, but he’s going to be an above-average big league starter, with the upside of a No. 1 or very good No. 2 starter.
24. Manuel Margot, CF, San Diego Padres
Age: 22 (9/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 180
Top level: MLB | 2016: 25
Margot came to San Diego as part of the four-prospect package from Boston for Craig Kimbrel, and should be the Padres’ regular center fielder in 2017 over Travis Jankowski. Margot can really play center as an above-average runner with great instincts and the ability to cover all that ground at Petco, one of the more difficult center fields to play in the majors.
At the plate, he’s a high-contact hitter with quick hands and a short path to the ball, although I think he can get a little over-rotational when he tries to hit for power, which results in him getting on top of balls and hitting them into the ground. He’s at his best when he just tries to put the ball into the outfield, as he’s very unlikely to be a 10-plus homer guy, but could hit .280-.300 with some doubles and triples thanks to his speed, slugging in the low .400s in peak years.
Margot is ready now, and projects as a plus-10 runs or so defender in center. That, combined with his ability to put the ball in play, should make him an average regular now, with a little more than that to come when he reaches his physical peak.
23. Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 22 (2/10/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 165
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE
Quantrill is the son of journeyman big-league reliever Paul Quantrill -- who is probably still pitching somewhere at the moment -- and could have gone first in 2016’s draft had he been healthy last spring. Instead, he missed Stanford’s entire season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, only throwing side sessions for scouts. The Padres, picking eighth, decided to roll the dice on getting the draft’s best talent at a discount.
So far, it seems to have worked out spectacularly. Quantrill was electric all summer, pitching often at 94-97 mph with a grade-70 changeup and a solid slider, with his command wobbly as you’d expect from a guy less than 18 months off the surgeon’s table. Quantrill is a plus athlete with a good delivery, coming from a high three-quarters slot that puts him on top of the ball well, and he maximizes his velocity with a big-step overstride to the plate. He still has to get his command back and be stretched out for longer outings, but right now the Padres’ bet on an ace the hard way appears to have hit.
22. Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 20 (5/2/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE
Rutherford was a top five talent in the 2016 draft, but concerns about his age (he turned 19 a month before draft day), position (he’s going to be a corner outfielder) and signability dropped him to the Yankees’ pick at 18th overall, making him one of the biggest steals of the first round. Rutherford can flat-out hit, and he already has some power with a reasonable chance to be plus in the future. He spent most of his summer in the Appy League before an injury ended his season, hitting .382/.440/.618 in 100 plate appearances and posting the highest average and OBP of any teenager in the league.
Rutherford has a mature approach at the plate and a very clean swing, although he can roll over his front foot too often, which may make him vulnerable to lefties with better breaking stuff as he moves up the ladder. He’ll play center for now, but he’s not a major-league center fielder and I think he’ll ultimately end up in right. He’s so likely to hit that I have him stuffed on this list despite the positional concerns, and I think he’ll move quickly through the low minors so that draft-day concerns about his age disappear before this year is out.
21. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 19 (3/9/98) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 38
Traded in a surprise deal in July for Drew Pomeranz, Espinoza was one of the youngest pitchers in any full-season league in 2016, and he won’t turn 19 until this March. Espinoza is way beyond his years in stuff, pitching at 94-95 mph with his four-seam fastball already, touching 99, while already showing feel for a curveball and a changeup. Neither offspeed pitch is consistently above-average yet, but the changeup is further along.
He has a great body and his delivery works well, with the velocity coming fairly easy and with no real obstacles to command or to improving the breaking ball. Given how good his raw stuff is and that he throws strikes, it was a little surprising he didn’t have better results in low-A between Greenville and Fort Wayne, but again, he was just 18, so this was like a high school senior pitching in the Sally and Midwest Leagues.
Nevertheless, that kind of arsenal doesn’t often lead to a 4.50 ERA. That may be an indication that he’s not going to zip through the minors, and will need a full year or more at each level, but even that would have him in the Padres’ rotation at the age of 22, and the upside given all of the raw material here is at least that of a No. 2 starter with ace upside not out of the question, and minimal risk as a reliever, too.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
6:49pm: Logan will earn a $5.5MM base salary in 2017, tweets Hoynes. His 2018 club option is worth $7MM and comes with a $1MM buyout.
2:31pm: It’s a one-year deal with a club option, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter).
1:55pm: The Indians have agreed to a deal with free-agent lefty Boone Logan, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Terms remain unknown at this time; the deal is pending the results of a physical.
Logan, 32, has reportedly sought a two-year deal, with indications he’d be able to command that. Before the offseason, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM contract for the veteran. He just wrapped up a three-year, $16.5MM pact with the Rockies that didn’t really pan out for the team, though Logan certainly ended his tenure in Colorado on a strong note.
In 2016, Logan worked to a 3.69 ERA — all the more impressive that he did so while pitching at Coors Field — with 11.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 46 1/3 innings. With a 93 mph fastball and a devastating slider, he racked up an outstanding 16.4% swinging-strike rate that rates among the game’s best. He typically produces solid groundball rates, too, with a lifetime 46.4% mark.
Of course, Logan wasn’t nearly as good over the two prior seasons, over which he carried a 5.37 ERA — due, at least in part, to elevate BABIP totals (.379 in 2014 and .374 in 2015). He has also dealt with elbow issues at times, which presents not-unfamiliar risk.
The bigger issue, though, may be in his usage limitations. While he’s dominant against opposing southpaws, Logan isn’t nearly as effective against righties. Over 847 total plate appearances during his career, righty hitters own a .288/.376/.478 slash.
[RELATED: Updated Indians Depth Chart]
For the Indians, though, Logan still offers plenty of functionality. The club already has the dominant Andrew Miller available as the southpaw piece of a high-leverage mix that includes righties Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. With those three arms already in place, skipper Terry Francona ought to have plenty of flexibility in deploying Logan to take full advantage of his skillset.Comment -
Indians bullpen will be nasty again.Comment -
This is it, the final score, and what seems to be my annual love letter to shortstops, with four of them in the top five this year -- a testament to the value of a player who can stay at the infield's most challenging position and provide some offense as well.
Most of these names will be familiar to you already, either because they've been on these lists before, because they've appeared in the majors already (six of them, including the top two) or because they've been traded recently (four). The one thing they all have in common is that they all look likely to become stars once they reach their major league peaks.
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2017.
Top 100 prospects ranked 1-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | 81-100 | Index
20. Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 18 (8/23/98) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 220
Top level: Short-season A-ball | 2016: NE
Groome was the No. 2 player on my board in the 2016 draft, but he slipped to the Red Sox at the 12th pick overall because of concerns about his signability and off-field questions, which allowed Boston to take a lefty with one of the best curveballs I’ve ever seen from a high-schooler.
Groome is a good athlete with a very easy delivery, sitting 90-94 mph pretty regularly with projection to get up to the mid-90s on his fastball in time, something he has only done before when pitching in short stints. The curveball is a hammer, a grade-70 pitch he can throw for strikes that will buckle a lot of knees in A-ball this year, though I would guess the Red Sox will ask him to throw it less often to work on fastball command and develop his untrained changeup.
His arm works well, and he has the size to work downhill with his fastball, one of the aspects lacking from his game at the moment. He’s still relatively unpolished and probably four years away from the majors, so there’s a higher flameout or injury risk -- maybe 30 percent or so -- than there is for other arms in this region of the rankings. I’ll still take a big lefty with an out pitch curveball and potential for a grade-55 or better fastball any day of the week.
19. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Age: 20 (8/9/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 11
Rodgers was the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, behind Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, but he was first on my board as the most likely of the three to stay at shortstop while also providing some real power upside. All of that is still true, though Bregman and Swanson have raced to the majors while Rodgers is likely to begin this year in High-A at the age of 20. He’ll be in hitter-friendly Lancaster, now the best environment for offense in the California League, so don’t be shocked if he puts up huge stats.
Rodgers has great feel to hit for his age and makes a lot of hard contact, striking out just 98 times in 110 games as a 19-year-old in Low-A, with fringe-average power now that projects to 20-25 homers in the majors. He’s a grade-40 runner who has somewhat stiff hips for a shortstop and doesn’t cross over well, but he has great hands and good instincts to position himself well for average range. And his plus arm allows him to range back to his left. His great stat line for Asheville last year was probably boosted by his home park, and he didn’t hit well on the road, so take some of the present power numbers with a grain of salt. The power will come in time, but in a neutral park, he wouldn’t have hit 19 homers in 2016. As an average defender at short who should hit in the .280-plus range with 20-25 homers, he’d be an above-average regular who could make some All-Star teams in peak years.
18. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (10/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 175
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR
Mejia had one of the minors’ biggest breakout seasons in 2016, establishing himself as the game’s top catching prospect, with his 50-game hitting streak making news. But he has become a legitimate front-line option. Mejia is a switch-hitter with a bit of an unconventional approach, but he has outstanding bat-to-ball skills from both sides of the plate, showing sneaky pop already in his age-20 season with the potential to get to the 15-20 homer range in time.
Behind the plate, Mejia receives well and can show an 80-grade arm when necessary. He is still improving on the finer points of catching, such as game-calling and planning for hitters. By all accounts, he’s not there yet, but he has a good chance to reach a level at which he’s adequate with the bat and arm. There’s always the chance he becomes Carlos Santana and has value at another position where he’d play another 20-25 games a year, but if Mejia catches, he might be MVP-worthy, like Joe Mauer, but with a better build for the position.
17. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (5/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: MLB | 2016: 17
He's an enormous, explosive athlete who can flash all sorts of baseball skills. Moncada looks like Lawrence Taylor in a baseball uniform, but if you saw him in the majors in September, you also saw some of the flaws in his game. Moncada is a plus runner with good bat speed and plus raw power, with a better left-handed swing but potential on both sides of the plate. He has moved around the diamond a little, looking too stiff and upright at second but much better at third base, a position that demands quicker reactions and relies less on getting down to field slower ground balls.
He destroyed High-A to start 2016, then hit well in Double-A (.277/.379/.531) but struck out 31 percent of the time, and then looked lost with a late promotion to the big leagues. However, Moncada wraps his bat and can’t get to the stuff thrown inside and backspin it, getting on top of those pitches or missing them entirely. When he reached the majors, it was as if he’d never seen a breaking ball in his life. The latter problem can change with development time, but the former is a more significant mechanical question that reduces his likely ceiling for me. The White Sox, having just acquired him, have no need to rush him and should let him spend the year in Triple-A. I think he’s going to be a good big leaguer, maybe an above-average one, but there’s also a pretty high risk involved here, maybe 30 percent, that he never lives up to his physical tools.
16. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 (4/4/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR
Law's 2017 Prospect Ranks
Jan. 18: Farm system rankings, 30-21
Jan. 19: System rankings, 20-11
Jan. 20: System rankings, 10-1
Jan. 23: Prospects Nos. 100-81
Jan. 24: Nos. 80-61
Jan. 25: Nos. 60-41
Jan. 26: Nos. 40-21
Jan. 27: Nos. 20-1
Jan. 27: Full index of Top 100
Jan. 28: Prospects who missed
Jan. 30: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL East and NL East
Jan. 31: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL Central and NL Central
Feb. 1: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL West and NL West
Feb. 2: Top prospects by position
Feb. 3: Sleepers
» Law's 2017 rankings
» Law's 2016 rankings
Keller had a miserable, injury-plagued 2015 season, walking 16 in 19 innings in short-season ball with a 5.49 ERA, so his 2016 breakout might be the most unexpected minor league performance of the year. He walked three more guys in 111 more innings and posted a 2.35 ERA on the season with 138 punchouts while pitching most of the year in Low-A until his final mic-drop start of the season for High-A Bradenton (6 innings, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts).
The Pirates made a minor mechanical change to Keller in instructional league in 2015, and then he went home and got himself in The Best Shape of His Life™ before spring training, after which he started the year throwing 92-95 mph, which became 92-97 and eventually topped out at 99 in August. He has a plus breaking ball now and an average changeup he has been throwing only since he entered pro ball. He’s one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and, health permitting, his floor is becoming a No. 3 starter. But his ceiling is ace, which is well within reach.
15. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 22 (6/29/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE
Senzel was a huge question mark entering his junior year at Tennessee; most scouts agreed he could hit, but he was a poor defender at third with an unclear future in the field and hadn’t shown the power needed to profile at a corner. To his great credit, Senzel worked to make himself an asset on defense at third, no worse than average in the big leagues, and doubled his home run total from his sophomore year, which led the Reds to take him with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft.
Cincinnati was aggressive with his assignment after he signed, sending him to Low-A Dayton, and all he did was hit .329/.420/.567 in 210 plate appearances, which would have led the league in OBP and slugging if he’d played enough. Senzel is a 60 runner who might end up swinging a 70 bat, and in a neutral park should be good for 15-20 homers a year, maybe 20-25 if his home park in the majors is Cincinnati’s. Even average defense at third would make him a potential All-Star, and if he’s got the hit tool, he should be on track to reach the majors by September.
14. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 24 (8/14/92) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 240
Top level: MLB | 2016: 56
Bell fell two at-bats short of losing his rookie status for 2017, which would have knocked him off the list, but just look at what he did in his big league time: hitting .273/.368/.406 with more walks than strikeouts after hitting a career-best 14 homers in about 80 percent of a season in Triple-A.
Bell is a huge guy with the hitting approach of a smaller hitter. He goes the other way exceptionally well, working the count, but also unleashes some power -- there’s a ball in the Allegheny River right now that will testify to this -- when he gets a pitch to drive. Continuing to ambush pitches he can hit for power, especially when ahead in the count, will be key to reaching his ceiling as a .280/.400/.500 type of hitter. He should have 25 homers regularly but is more valuable for his ability to hit and get on base.
Bell’s only real flaw now is his lack of a position; although better than he was a year ago, he’s not good at first base, certainly not MLB-ready there, and will probably never be more than just adequate with the glove. But if you look at his 2016 performance at both levels and the physical tools -- including the raw power -- that Bell has had since high school, you can see the potential for a four- or five-win bat even without providing any help on defense.
13. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 255
Top level: MLB | 2016: 3
Giolito’s big league debut went poorly, though there are some good reasons why -- the Nationals had tried to alter his delivery early in the spring, which cost him control and velocity, and promoted him to the majors not long after restoring his previous mechanics. He was still touching 96 mph in the majors and sitting around 93 with his fastball, so his arm is fine, though between that and the different baseballs, he didn’t show the dominance he had in the low minors.
When he’s right, Giolito will sit at 93-95 mph with his four-seamer, touching 97 or 98, with an out-pitch curveball, average or better change and a two-seamer he can use to mitigate the lack of life on his four-seamer. He’s a superb athlete with a clean, repeatable delivery, one that might not provide a ton of deception but does allow him to throw plenty of strikes.
He has been healthy since 2012 Tommy John surgery and is almost ready for a major league rotation spot right now, with plenty of untapped upside for his new employers to coax out. There’s No. 1 starter ceiling here given the size, delivery and out pitch in the curveball, with a mid-rotation floor.
12. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 (11/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR
The Cubs’ 2013 international haul included both Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, both of whom look like potential superstars right now, though Torres is now in the Yankees’ system. If you saw the 2016 Futures Game, you saw what Jimenez can do -- he made one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen any right fielder make, running all the way to the line and leaping the wall to catch a foul popup. He also hit a home run off the third level of the left-field façade at Petco Park, a distance few big leaguers have reached.
Jimenez made his full-season debut last year at age 19 and hit .329/.369/.523, leading the league in slugging by 50 points and finishing 12th in OBP (behind 11 older players), but he wasn’t among the top 50 in strikeouts. Listed at 6-foot-4 and probably bigger than that, Jimenez has a swing that plays shorter. He repeats it very well, getting his hands to the zone quickly from his loaded position with enough loft in his finish to hit line drives and hit for power. If you’re looking to nitpick, he could walk more, but he was the age of a college freshman and just destroyed a full-season league. It’s so nice to see those downtrodden Cubs have some good news on the horizon.
11. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 (10/24/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: High-A | 2016: 7
Devers has been somewhat overshadowed the last year-plus by more famous prospects in the Red Sox system, including Andrew Benintendi and the now-traded Yoan Moncada, but Devers is an elite, high-upside prospect in his own right. He's a true third baseman with an exceptional ability to hit and huge raw power he’s just beginning to display in games. Devers’ main tool is his bat. He has great hand-eye coordination, and the ball comes off his bat exceptionally well; power should come easily without having to change his approach or swing.
After a miserable April, Devers hit .310/.354/.478 in 107 games the rest of the season, all as a 19-year-old in High-A. He was the third-youngest regular in the Carolina League, but despite playing the entire year at the level, his strikeout rate was just 17.2 percent, ranking 18th of 56 players who had at least 300 at-bats in the league. And there is big power to come -- Devers can already put the ball out to dead center on a line, so it’s a matter of some physical maturity and maintaining that hard-contact approach rather than becoming too pull-oriented.
Devers is big for third base, but he's agile enough for the position with good hands and a plus arm. Moving Moncada clears a path for Devers to take over at the hot corner in Fenway sometime in late 2018. Even average defense at third would make him an All-Star given how much I expect him to hit for power.
10. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 22 (8/29/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB | 2016: 8
Reyes nearly lost his rookie eligibility in 2016, missing the cutoff by four innings, but he heads into 2017 with a likely spot in the St. Louis rotation and as one of the early favorites for NL Rookie of the Year. Reyes will show No. 1 starter stuff, starting with a power fastball he dials up to 94-98 mph when he starts (and to 96-101 mph when he worked a short outing at the Futures Game last year). He mixes in a plus-plus changeup and a hard but average curveball that he tends to cast rather than finishing out front. His fastball and changeup miss bats, and the breaking ball could get there as well.
Reyes has a short stride and lands stiffly, which is why the curveball doesn’t have the bite you would expect at 75-80 mph, and his fastball often rides up in the zone. Short striders are prone to those command issues and to shoulder problems, and Reyes missed part of 2015 with a sore shoulder, then missed the start of 2016 after a suspension for marijuana (which is unrelated to the short stride, I think). There’s more risk to Reyes than other prospects with No. 1 starter potential, but he has as much upside as they do, with command and that inconsistent breaking ball keeping him from being an ace at the moment.
9. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 22 (5/3/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 16
Law's 2017 prospect methodology
I see players all year long, as amateurs, in pro ball, at the Futures Game and in the Arizona Fall League. If I've seen a player, my scouting report becomes the foundation of his capsule and his ranking here. I can't see every player, and sometimes I see a player only once on a day that isn't representative of his abilities, so I supplement all my content with conversations with various scouts and with at least one executive with every MLB team who has seen his team's prospects enough to discuss them and suggest how I might rank them.
I refer within player capsules and descriptions to grades on player tools and overall forecasts, using the industry standard 20-80 scale.
» Complete methodology
Meadows is an outstanding athlete who continued to show real progress on both sides of the ball in 2016 -- wrapped around his usual love affair with the disabled list. (It doesn’t love you back, Austin.) He got out of the Florida State League and started to drive the ball more effectively, hitting more doubles, triples and homers than he did in 2015 despite playing 40 fewer games. He’s still a little ground ball-prone and can roll the ball over to the second baseman too often, but not to the extent he showed the year before. He has both bat speed and strength to eventually hit 20-25 homers.
Meadows has also shown a very advanced approach at the plate for his age and inexperience -- he has played only 307 games across three-plus seasons because of injuries -- even maintaining his high contact rate in his spotty Triple-A debut. He’s an above-average runner who’s outgrowing center field but should be a plus defender in right when he’s finished filling out. He’s going to be an impact guy on offense and defense, a potential No. 2 hitter who shows power and gets on base while saving five or more runs a year in right field.
8. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 (5/19/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 49
Robles is a true five-tool player who has progressed quickly since signing in 2013 as a 16-year-old. He played well at both A-ball levels in 2016, with only a Michael Kopech fastball to the hand slowing him down. Robles is a 70 runner and plus fielder in center with a plus arm, and at the plate, you can comfortably project him to have a plus hit tool. He’s already pretty advanced with great bat speed, strong hands and the ability to use the whole field.
The power is more projection right now, but he has the raw ingredients to get there, similar to Andrew McCutchen at the same age; McCutchen had the bat speed, the frame and the quick wrists for power but needed to finish physically maturing. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to hope for a Cutch sort of ceiling, and I don’t think it was unreasonable for the Nats to make Robles the one prospect they were keeping at all costs this winter.
7. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 (4/30/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR
Kopech’s pro career got off to a rocky start, but once he returned from the disabled list in mid-June 2016, he emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, which in turn allowed the Red Sox -- who selected him with the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 draft -- to use him to land Chris Sale in a trade with the White Sox.
Kopech can touch triple digits with his fastball, which regularly sits in the upper 90s -- he was clocked at 96-99 mph in his first outing in the Arizona Fall League -- with ridiculous arm speed and huge extension over his front side that must make hitters think the ball is coming in at 110. He has some feel for both a hard slider and changeup, though neither is very consistent just yet, with the changeup a little ahead the last time I saw him pitch.
Kopech has modeled himself after Noah Syndergaard, another huge Texas right-hander who came out of high school with a fastball, a good delivery and little else, and the results so far are very promising. Other than a slight cutoff in his landing, Kopech’s delivery works and should allow him to develop average or better command over time. He just needs to pitch, both to build up durability and work on fastball command and getting those two off-speed pitches to be regularly above average. His upside is that of a No. 1 starter who has two or three truly plus pitches and logs 200 innings a year.
6. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (7/13/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 92
Bellinger was a fourth-round pick out of football powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona, back in 2013, and even though it looks crazy now that a prospect this good fell to the fourth round, consider what he was then. The track record of high school first basemen taken high in the draft is poor, and teams shy away from that profile because there’s really no way out if something goes wrong -- a first baseman has to hit to justify his existence, and if his defense is a problem, there’s nowhere to hide him. Bellinger also had a big, long swing that looked certain to result in a ton of strikeouts, and his father, former Yankee Clay, was a 25th man/utility guy, not a superstar like his son now appears to be.
Cody is not his father in any respect. Scouts universally praise his ability to make substantial adjustments at the plate, even when moving up a level. He left the High-A California League, a hitter-friendly circuit, and cut his strikeout rate by a third despite moving up to Double-A, losing no power and even raising his OBP in the process. He generates a ton of torque through his hips, producing all that power, so he has been productive even as he’s figuring out who he is as a hitter -- and who he is keeps getting better each season.
Bellinger is also an elite defensive first baseman, providing a big target for fielding throws, moving exceptionally well around the bag, grading out as a 70 defender who might be even better, and he gives his team the flexibility to put him in any outfield spot, including center, if the need arises. Adrian Gonzalez with better defense? Eric Hosmer with power? Any reasonable comparison needs a modifier because Bellinger, still just 21 years old, has so much untapped upside yet to be discovered.
5. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 22 (1/11/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 4
As good as Crawford could be, he had a disappointing Triple-A debut in 2016 after starting the year back in Double-A Reading, where he did his usual act of getting on base and playing great defense. He has struggled after promotions before, but never to this extent, and it seemed like playing in Reading, the most homer-friendly park in the Eastern League, affected his approach.
Crawford at his best is a disciplined hitter, unafraid to hit with two strikes, willing to use the whole field, but unlikely to hit for much power -- he’s not big and his swing isn’t geared that way. He instead posts high OBPs with doubles and lots of speed. He’s a potentially elite defender at short with good range in both directions and a very quick transfer. The challenges for Crawford in 2016 are to return to his prior approach and show greater physical commitment to the tasks at hand. He’s blessed with the talent to be a perennial All-Star at shortstop who saves 5-10 runs a year with his glove and gets on base 40 percent of the time.
4. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Age: 2o (12/13/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: High-A | 2016: 15
Torres showed up to spring training a little heavy in 2016, but after that, it was all good news for the Yankees’ new heir apparent at short; the Cubs traded him to the Bronx as the main piece in the Aroldis Chapman deal. After that, Torres went to the AFL and led the league in OBP, finished second in slugging and became the youngest winner of the AFL MVP award in the league’s 25-year history. To get this kind of player for two months of a one-inning reliever has to make Yankee fans’ hearts sing.
Torres is an advanced hitter at the plate with a great approach that has him going the other way well with pitches on the outer half, and he makes adjustments from one at-bat to the next like a much older player. He can square up good velocity, although his recognition of off-speed stuff still needs some work.
Although I’ve had scouts question whether he’ll stay at shortstop because of his build, he has a 70-grade arm and great hands, and I think he has enough lateral range that he’s more likely to remain at the position than move to third. He was the second-youngest regular in the Carolina League last year and will play all of 2017 at age 20, starting in Double-A. He has the ability to pick up sliders and changeups -- that's the difference between him and a promotion. He’s the Yankees’ new shortstop of the future, a player with All-Star upside and a very high floor because of his feel for hitting.
3. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Age: 21 (11/20/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 170
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 42
Rosario signed with the Mets in 2012 for $1.75 million, the largest bonus the club had ever given an international amateur free agent. Since the 2014 season, his star has been heading straight up. The Mets made the peculiar decision to have Rosario return to High-A to start 2016, but he raked in his second season in St. Lucie, moved up to Double-A in late June and hit better across the board at the higher level against better pitching. Rosario is still just scratching the surface of his offensive potential; there’s so much bat speed and strength here that he should eventually hit 15-20 homers, but right now, it’s translating into hard contact to all fields.
Rosario is big for shortstop but in his own league athletically. He’s almost a lock to stay at the position, and he's gifted with quick actions, a plus arm and the ability to throw accurately while in motion. He also saw his walk rate soar with just a modest rise in his strikeout rate, which is still quite low for a hitter projected to come into power. He has MVP potential as a true shortstop who will be above average defensively and projects to hit .300 with some walks and power. He’ll become a cornerstone at short for the Mets, who have lacked one since Jose Reyes first left in free agency.
2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23 (2/11/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 175
Top level: MLB | 2016: 13
"Lieutenant Dans" missed the rookie cutoff by one at-bat in 2016, so he gets one more year in the top 20 before graduating in his first game this season. Swanson overmatched High-A pitching early last year before a promotion to Double-A, where his college propensity to swing and miss started to catch up to him, but his brief trial in the majors went very well, and he didn’t have the same trouble hitting high-velocity pitches. Swanson is an above-average defender at short with great instincts who played well there in the big leagues, enough to lock down the position and persuade Atlanta to move fellow prospect Ozhaino Albies to second base.
At the plate, Swanson is going to strike out more than the typical hitter of this profile, so while he has doubles power and will add value on the bases, he’s going to have to raise his contact rate to become a real asset at the plate. His debut in Atlanta was boosted by a .383 BABIP that he’s not going to repeat, though I think he has enough feel to hit that he will have a BABIP above league average. He’s a high-floor guy with some low-probability ceiling -- at worst, a solid-average major league shortstop right now and potentially an All-Star given some changes in his approach at the plate.
1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 (7/6/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 170
Top level: MLB | 2016: 18
The Red Sox picked seventh in the 2015 draft and used that selection on a draft-eligible sophomore from the University of Arkansas who hit .276/.368/.333 with one home run in his freshman year. Of course, Benintendi then hit 20 bombs with a .376/.488/.717 line as a sophomore, won the Golden Spikes Award and has since dominated at every level of the minors. He earned a call-up on Aug. 2 that would have cost him his rookie eligibility -- and his spot on this list -- had he not suffered a knee sprain that held him out three weeks.
Benintendi is only about 5-foot-8 (though listed at a generous 5-foot-10) but has no problem generating plus power between his hand speed and the loft in his swing’s finish. He has more power to his pull side but more than enough to drive the ball out to the left-field wall. His plate discipline might be even more impressive than how hard he makes contact; he walked more than he struck out across his brief minor league tenure and then saw just more than four pitches per plate appearance in the majors last fall. Benintendi showed enough patience that manager John Farrell has said he might make the outfielder his No. 2 hitter.
Although Benintendi played more left field in the majors, he’s capable of playing above-average defense in center if need be, thanks to above-average speed and good instincts. And if he was a center-fielder with just average defense, he’d still be an All-Star thanks to the potential for him to post OBPs near .400 with 25-plus homers and value on the bases. And if the Sox end up putting him in center, Benintendi would be a potential six-win player. That’s incredible value for the seventh overall pick, and it makes Benintendi the best prospect in baseball for 2017.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Forgot about Michael BrantleyComment -
Rosario at #3!
Should be fun to see Rosario vs Torres in NY in a few years.Comment -
8:10pm: The deal includes an option, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter).
7:52pm: The Mets have agreed to a deal to bring back free-agent lefty Jerry Blevins, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed around $6MM in the deal, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (via Twitter).
With the move, New York further adds to a relief corps that already saw new additions earlier today. The organization also brought back righty Fernando Salas and brought in southpaw Tom Gorzelanny on a minor-league pact for depth.
[RELATED: Updated Mets Depth Chart]
Blevins, though, was arguably a particular priority for New York. He’ll step in front of Josh Edgin and Sean Gilmartin in the pecking order among southpaws. Gorzelanny joins other depth options, including Josh Smoker and Adam Wilk.
Ultimately, it’s an appealing price tag for the Mets, who brought back Blevins last year for $4MM after an injury-shortened 2015 season. The results were excellent for both team and player, as Blevins turned in what was arguably his best full season as a big leaguer.
Over 42 innings last year — compiled across a personal-high 73 appearances — Blevins worked to a strong 2.79 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 to go with a 45.8% groundball rate. Long a weapon against opposing lefties, Blevins has increased his effectiveness against righties since coming to New York, perhaps aided by the increased deployment of his cut fastball. He also throws a sinker, a slider, and (much less frequently) a change.
With Blevins signed, the bulk of the left-handed relief market has now settled out. It’s interesting to see how things landed. Blevins, Boone Logan, and J.P. Howell all settled for single-season pacts, while Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, and even Marc Rzepczynski landed bigger guarantees in multi-year arrangements.Comment -
Just amazing to me how many mediocre RP's are getting large contracts. Yet then you have guys like Tyson Ross only getting $6M because of uncertainty from his recovery.Comment -
There's just so many talented relievers, or starters who could be converted into a successful reliever, wasting away in AAA. Seems silly to me. All sports are reactionary though, and I feel like a lot of these contracts have to do with what the Indians were able to do with their pen in the post season, more specifically Andrew Miller (who is also a failed SP converted to RP)
Have guys like Wade Davis and Alex Colome, who couldn't cut it in the rotation and switched. The Pirates have another in Juan Nicasio this year, I expect him to be closing out games in Pittsburgh by year's end.Comment -
Kelvin Herrera agrees to 1-year deal, avoids arbitration with Royals
The Kansas City Royals have avoided salary arbitration with Kelvin Herrera, agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with the hard-throwing right-hander.
The Royals announced the deal Friday but did not disclose financial terms. According to multiple reports, the sides settled at $5.325 million to avoid arbitration.Comment -
I'm surprised that Moncada has slipped out of the top 15 prospects.Comment -
The Blue Jays have reached an agreement with right-handed reliever Joe Smith on a one-year Major League deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The signing, should it become official, will require a 40-man roster move by Toronto. Smith is represented by Meister Sports Management.
Smith, 33 in March, posted a 3.46 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, and 50.3% groundball rate in 52 innings for the Angels and Cubs. In terms of peripheral stats, it was the veteran sidearmer’s worst campaign since 2010. Early in the season, Smith was the top man in the Angels’ bullpen after Huston Street went down. However, he hit the DL in June for a hamstring injury. Shortly after his return, he was dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. Smith’s time with the Cubs was particularly brief due to a recurrence of the hamstring injury, and he was left off the team’s playoff roster. The Blue Jays will look for Smith to recapture some of his excellence spanning 2011-14, when he was fourth among all relievers with a 2.25 ERA in 271 2/3 innings.
The Jays’ contract with Smith comes on the heels of a one-year pact signed with lefty J.P. Howell on Tuesday. Howell will fill the role of the departed Brett Cecil, who signed a four-year deal with the Cardinals. Holdovers in the Blue Jays’ bullpen include Roberto Osuna, Joe Biagini, and Jason Grilli.Comment -
Can't believe Jason grill I is still aroundComment -
Blue Jays bullpen looking sharp, like Howell over Cecil for the LHP jobComment -
Infielder Wilmer Flores wins Mets' first arbitration case since '08
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Infielder Wilmer Flores defeated the Mets in New York's first salary arbitration hearing since pitcher Oliver Perez won in 2008.
Flores was awarded a $2.2 million salary Saturday by arbitrators Mark Irvings, Sylvia Skratek and Robert Herzog, who heard the case a day earlier. The Mets contended he should be paid $1.8 million. Flores made more than $526,000 last year and was eligible for arbitration for the first time.
He played all four infield positions last season. He hit .267, matched his career high with 16 homers and had 49 RBIs.Comment -
Royals sign SP Jason Hammel to a 2 year deal worth $16M. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...-year-contractComment -
Royals have reached agreement with free agent righty Jason Hammel on a two-year deal with a mutual option for a third year, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Hammel will receive $16MM guaranteed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweets. The deal is pending a physical. Hammel is an ACES client.
[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals Depth Chart]
Hammel’s long offseason began when the Cubs allowed him to decide whether he wanted them to exercise his $12MM 2017 option or give him a $2MM buyout. The Cubs ultimately declined the option, already an unusual decision on a reportedly healthy pitcher coming off a solid 3.83 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 season as a back-end starter, and Hammel hit the open market, only to linger there for almost four months. That long period on the market included a change of agencies, from Octagon to ACES.
The $16MM guarantee Hammel will receive over two years has to qualify as a disappointing outcome for him, at least relative to his likely expectations earlier in the offseason. While this offseason was a slow one for starting pitchers in general, Hammel compares favorably to several starters who received similar or greater amounts, either in total contract value or average annual value, including Charlie Morton (two years, $14MM), Bartolo Colon (one year, $12.5MM) and former Royal Edinson Volquez (two years, $22MM).Comment
