Lout's Picks 11/1

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  • Lout84
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-09-07
    • 580

    #1
    Lout's Picks 11/1
    6-2 on my card last week on my 5 unit plays. But, went 0-4 on my 1 unit plays. 6-6 for the weekend but +11 units!

    All plays are 5 units unless stated otherwise.

    Missouri -20.5
    This line is low because of the emergence of Baylor's freshman QB, Griffin. Sure Baylor will put a few points on the board, but there is no way that Baylor's defense can stop Chase Daniel's spread offense. missouri scores 55 in this one. Baylor will score in the 17-24 range. Mizzou covers this one with a cushion.

    Oklahoma -12.5 (1st HALF)
    Nebraska is rebuilding this year and they barely got by Baylor last week. They have largely unimpressed me this year and even more last year. Oklahoma at home, rolls in this one. I see them matching the 21 point spread by half time. So I think the half time spread would be the best bet here. Oklahoma seems to get up to a huge lead and then run run run in the 2nd half, running the clock down.

    West Virginia -4
    My eyes must be deceiving me! This is the same team that whipped down on Auburn last Thursday and they are only 4 point favs?? UConn has put together a decent team this year, but they are down to their 2nd string QB and will not be able to stop White and Devine. I like this game big! West Virginia is easily the best team in the Big East.

    San Jose St -16.5
    I normally do not like DD road fav's.. but San Jose vastly impressed me last week against Boise St. Even though they lost, their defense is a very tough unit. I don't think Idaho scores more than 10 points against this defense. San Jose should cover with a TD cushion.

    Oregon St -12.5 (Pags play)

    TCU -14
    TCU is one of the few non-BCS schools that have a shot for a BCS bowl game. Look for TCU to run up the score as much as possible on all of their opponent's the rest of the season (as long as they are in the running for the BCS bowl game) because they need to impress the voters. This should not be a tough feat as UNLV is a pretty poor team offensively and mediocre defensively.
    Last edited by Lout84; 10-29-08, 04:12 PM.
  • awhitejackson
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-07
    • 2265

    #2
    I really like all of these except sjs (just cuase Idaho f'd me last week).....Definately like WVU pick...this team has finally woken up and is the only team undefeated in conference play...Basically if we win out or only lose to Sfla we are back in a BCS bowl for 3rd time in 4 years. I know the players are aware of this and will go all out at UCONN....GL
    Comment
    • Trey333
      SBR Rookie
      • 10-15-08
      • 44

      #3
      awhitejackson,

      What is your unbiased opinion about WVU? Do you really think that WVU is back, or do you think that they just beat down on a terrible offensive team (bad team in general) Auburn? I like WVU vs UCONN, but I'm worried that this might just be a trendy pick based on a misleading game. I called Cincy last week and UCONN proved me completely wrong. TIA
      Comment
      • awhitejackson
        SBR MVP
        • 11-15-07
        • 2265

        #4
        Originally posted by Trey333
        awhitejackson,

        What is your unbiased opinion about WVU? Do you really think that WVU is back, or do you think that they just beat down on a terrible offensive team (bad team in general) Auburn? I like WVU vs UCONN, but I'm worried that this might just be a trendy pick based on a misleading game. I called Cincy last week and UCONN proved me completely wrong. TIA
        Ive watched every WVU game this year and though I am biased, the team that came out against Auburn was the first time weve played good football since last years win over Oklahoma....Offensive attack which has changed 3 times this year has found its stride and I really do see a running domination of UCONN again.... D, which was suspect in first 4 games has played sharp as of late....especially against the run...Traditionally (well last 4 years) 1 dimensional offenses such as UCONN have trouble hanging with the bigger guns of WVU...Last 3 years it was Ray Rice rushing for almost nothing and I see very similar circumstances here with Donald Brown and the Huskies...Basically the Huskies will score but the Mounties will score more often...Remember that Cincy game was close until bad turnovers in the 4th Q....GL with whatever you do
        Comment
        • Trey333
          SBR Rookie
          • 10-15-08
          • 44

          #5
          alright awhite,

          You've swayed me. Usually people say never bet on your own team, but I feel the opposite as in no one knows a team better than their own fans. Plus, I believe in a healthy Pat White, who is just now coming into play.

          GL this week to you as well
          Comment
          • I.R.B
            SBR MVP
            • 08-12-08
            • 3209

            #6
            Bol.
            Comment
            • SportNut
              SBR MVP
              • 05-16-07
              • 1984

              #7
              Thanks for picks Lout. Keep up the good work.
              Comment
              • Trey333
                SBR Rookie
                • 10-15-08
                • 44

                #8
                Lout,

                I honestly can't find any faults in these picks except for the LSU-Tulane game. Tulane hates LSU and usually plays them closer than other teams. I'd feel better if LSU had a better QB.

                Great card, and BOL this week
                Comment
                • Lout84
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-09-07
                  • 580

                  #9
                  Thank you Trey. Thank you Sportnut.

                  Yea, I am deleting the LSU game, I have been uneasy on this game.. Tulane players have a personal vandetta against LSU because they were not recruited by LSU and they feel they should have been. Tulane usually gives LSU everything when they play each other. Also, this is a sandwich game for LSU, which is too risky. With LSU's QB out, I do not feel this game is as clear cut as some may think. I like to pick games that I believe will have a TD cushion at the end of the game. I do not like sweating it out in the last few minutes of a game.

                  I am adding play:

                  TCU -14
                  Last edited by Lout84; 10-29-08, 04:13 PM.
                  Comment
                  • Lout84
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-09-07
                    • 580

                    #10
                    awhitejackson, your avatar is disturbing.
                    Comment
                    • awhitejackson
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-15-07
                      • 2265

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Lout84
                      awhitejackson, your avatar is disturbing.
                      Yeah trying to have a little Halloween spirit I guess....GL this week
                      Comment
                      • odusmykal
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-30-07
                        • 3426

                        #12
                        Nice picks.. BOL this week..
                        Comment
                        • Dabussport
                          Restricted User
                          • 10-21-08
                          • 19

                          #13
                          Nebraska

                          Oklahoma -12.5 (1st HALF)
                          Nebraska is rebuilding this year and they barely got by Baylor last week. They have largely unimpressed me this year and even more last year. Oklahoma at home, rolls in this one. I see them matching the 21 point spread by half time. So I think the half time spread would be the best bet here. Oklahoma seems to get up to a huge lead and then run run run in the 2nd half, running the clock down.

                          yes Nebraska is rebuilding, but remember that Stoops and Pelini are long time friends and Stoops wont run up the score. Plus why is it that nobody seems to remember the NU took Texas Tech into OT (at TT) and should have won the game.
                          Comment
                          • laxdjock
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-15-07
                            • 4074

                            #14
                            TCU is a great pick. I've had that on my radar all week. They'll try and hang 60 if given a chance.

                            I'm off of SJS.

                            Mizz is a coin flip for me....I may lay a unit because at 20.5, I think they should be fine, we'll see.

                            OK is usually a solid bet, but Dabussport brings up a really good point. Not sure if they will run it up to make sure they stay high in the rankings...but I'd rather not risk it.
                            Comment
                            • Rixsaw
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-23-08
                              • 4532

                              #15
                              Nice picks. I'm on all those picks except WV. Ucon plays very tough D at home. If I have to pick, I would pick Uconn because Dr. Lou Holtz believe it will be an upset. But I'm staying away.

                              I wanna share with you Rice, Navy and Notre Dame.
                              Comment
                              • Jimmydafreak
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 08-29-08
                                • 324

                                #16
                                Best of luck this week Lout!!! I see we're on opposite sides of one play. I like UConn +3.5.

                                FREAK OUT!!!
                                Comment
                                • Lout84
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-09-07
                                  • 580

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Dabussport
                                  Oklahoma -12.5 (1st HALF)
                                  Nebraska is rebuilding this year and they barely got by Baylor last week. They have largely unimpressed me this year and even more last year. Oklahoma at home, rolls in this one. I see them matching the 21 point spread by half time. So I think the half time spread would be the best bet here. Oklahoma seems to get up to a huge lead and then run run run in the 2nd half, running the clock down.

                                  yes Nebraska is rebuilding, but remember that Stoops and Pelini are long time friends and Stoops wont run up the score. Plus why is it that nobody seems to remember the NU took Texas Tech into OT (at TT) and should have won the game.
                                  Bob Stoops doesn't care who he is friends with come game time. I don't care if he were playing Arizona (his brother is the head coach).. Bob would run up the score just because he is who Bob Stoops. 2 weeks ago when Oklahoma played Kansas, Mangino is Stoops long time friend as well.. that didn't stop him from running that one up as much as he could. If Oklahoma is in contention for a BCS bowl game (which they are) look for them to run up the score.

                                  Oklahoma always likes the hit the acceleration early to sit on a big lead.. hence why I picked the first half play. Nebraska will never be 'in' this game. You can't go wrong with either play, halftime or game line.

                                  Also, if you cap games by purely looking at similar head to head matchups, you will lose your money.
                                  Comment
                                  • Lout84
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-09-07
                                    • 580

                                    #18
                                    odusmykul, thanks BOL with your picks as well.

                                    jimmy, I am hoping that West Virginia's offense was no fluke last week. I think they are finally back on track. If not, then yes UConn would be the correct side.. if so, then UConn will be in for anther 55-14 smackdown like last year. BOL on all of your picks (besides Uconn)
                                    Comment
                                    • akerber
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 04-08-08
                                      • 473

                                      #19
                                      3 - 3 last weekend

                                      keep working. Gl next weekend. I trust in your bets !!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • Lout84
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-09-07
                                        • 580

                                        #20
                                        This tied for my worst weekend of the year. I still haven't gone under 50%.. but obviously I didn't make any money this weekend on college football. Although I did go 3-0-1 in NFL this week.

                                        I appreciate the support akerber. I guarantee to have a stronger showing next weekend then last.
                                        Comment
                                        • jackpot269
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 09-24-07
                                          • 12828

                                          #21
                                          Lout84, congrats on the good year you are having and keep up the good work!! Thanks for sharing your insight and good write ups!!
                                          Comment
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