Testing the Sharps - Experiment

I.R.B · 10-25-08, 03:34 AM

Bol..

tab · 10-25-08, 04:15 AM

I like Indiana +8.5, Kansas -1, Idaho +13 and kent st +4.5. I do not like Louisville.

hawaii808 · 10-25-08, 05:39 AM

my local bookie had indiana +10...my biggest play for saturday

jackpot269 · 10-25-08, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by Suprman0

Now I know for sure that I am going to get shit for this because yes I know "angles don't work" or "there is no such thing as the sharps". But I have wanted to try this experiment for a few weeks as I have made a few bucks on following plays like that which I am listing. The following are plays that go with either reverse line movement or no line movement with a high percentage of picks on the favorite (minimum 60%). I will be playing the games I list but only for smaller amounts like 1/2 units or maybe a couple for 1 unit. I am expecting to win at least 75% of these plays, and yet again I know I will get shit for that statement, but I truly feel this may work. Well lets see what happens tommorrow, ill either be doing this

or this

Indiana +8.5 - 70/30 - Reverse Line Movement

Kansas -1 - 56/44 - Equal Action, Reverse Line Movement

Kansas St +18 - 70/30 - Reverse Line Movement

Duke +10 - 70/30 - No Line Movement

Louisville +4 - 62/37 - Reverse Line Movement

Michigan +4 - 64/36 - Reverse Line Movement

Kent St +4.5 - 70/30 - Reverse Line Movement

Idaho +13 - 69/31 - Reverse Line Movement

GL on this it will be interesting to see how well it works.

SexyMit · 10-25-08, 08:23 AM

But

SexyMit · 10-25-08, 08:27 AM

But I have also noticed that when the total or spread drops more then 3 or 4 points go with the way it dropped. Example last night O/U opened at 44 and went all the way down to 40.5 take the over. Kent St opened at +8 now +4.5 then you would take Miami Ohio on that one now.If it just 1 or 2 points then go with reverse line movement. That is what I have learned over the years watching line movement. And Honestly I think you will be doing this

SexyMit · 10-25-08, 08:28 AM

Another example Nebraska opened at -8 and now is -13 I would take Baylor, even though they are just horrible. Not a play for me but to just watch out for that game and see how it plays out.

Suprman0 · 10-25-08, 10:35 PM

Not too bad, I'm thinking maybe a small tweak and using only home underdogs with reverse line movement might be it

This test went 5 - 3

Suprman0 · 10-28-08, 04:18 PM

Continuing My Theory

Alright now after going 5 - 3 on Saturday, I have adjusted the theory to go as stated

- When the line on a home underdog has reverse line movement and over 62% of the public is on the favorite, take the home underdog.

- If I had followed this logic on Saturday and not included Kansas -1 (I think I really just wanted that play, and put emotion into it, which is the worst thing to do as a handicapper) then my record would have been 5 - 2. The K-State game should have covered but they gave up 2 chance to cover in the last 10 minutes.

-I know this is alot of "ifs" but I am seeing this system working and I followed the same logic, but forgot to post for NFL Sunday and ended up going 3 - 0 with Seattle + 5, KC +13, and Arizona +5. I know the validity is compromised because I did not post these before the game, but the money in my pocket proves my point.

-So in one weekend using this system I went 8 - 3, which means this system picked almost 73% correct.

You can take it or leave it but I will be continuing this experiment and posting my plays for both CFL and NFL. The CFL picks will come Friday night or Early Saturday morning and the NFL picks will always come Sunday morning 2 hours before kick off to insure accuracy of line movement.

This being said I do have a play for tonight, Tuesday, Oct 28

---- Thundering Herd + 7 (67% to 33%) for 1 unit

Like I said take my picks or fade em' I could really care less, however I will continue this system until it is no longer above 60% accuracy

SexyMit · 10-28-08, 04:45 PM

Actually more money then that on Houston. I'm seeing over 70% on Houston so I would definately take Marshall.

DeluxeLiner · 10-28-08, 04:45 PM

Suprman using RLM is a good tool in determining advantage plays and something to keep in mind while you determine your edge.

Deke101 · 10-28-08, 05:06 PM

Can't you find 7.5 on this one?

yisman · 10-28-08, 05:17 PM

"-I know this is alot of "ifs" but I am seeing this system working and I followed the same logic, but forgot to post for NFL Sunday and ended up going 3 - 0 with Seattle + 5, KC +13, and Arizona +5. I know the validity is compromised because I did not post these before the game, but the money in my pocket proves my point."

Those were all road teams. I thought this was about home underdogs?

Suprman0 · 10-28-08, 05:39 PM

Wow I feel like a complete moron now, and just lost some validity. In this instance for the NFL, I was unable to find any home underdogs with RLM, so I must have put on the blockers and went with just RLM of the underdog. So I obviously made a mistake and this theory did not apply to the NFL games listed, sorry about that. However ALL college games were Home Underdogs. I applogize for any confusion. I will however now be looking at this road dog idea but that will be in another forum, this will only be for the HOME underdogs.

So in fact the record of this theory is 5 - 2 because of my blantent error.

rossta4i · 10-28-08, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by Suprman0

Alright now after going 5 - 3 on Saturday, I have adjusted the theory to go as stated

- When the line on a home underdog has reverse line movement and over 62% of the public is on the favorite, take the home underdog.

- If I had followed this logic on Saturday and not included Kansas -1 (I think I really just wanted that play, and put emotion into it, which is the worst thing to do as a handicapper) then my record would have been 5 - 2. The K-State game should have covered but they gave up 2 chance to cover in the last 10 minutes.

-I know this is alot of "ifs" but I am seeing this system working and I followed the same logic, but forgot to post for NFL Sunday and ended up going 3 - 0 with Seattle + 5, KC +13, and Arizona +5. I know the validity is compromised because I did not post these before the game, but the money in my pocket proves my point.

-So in one weekend using this system I went 8 - 3, which means this system picked almost 73% correct.

You can take it or leave it but I will be continuing this experiment and posting my plays for both CFL and NFL. The CFL picks will come Friday night or Early Saturday morning and the NFL picks will always come Sunday morning 2 hours before kick off to insure accuracy of line movement.

This being said I do have a play for tonight, Tuesday, Oct 28

---- Thundering Herd + 7 (67% to 33%) for 1 unit

Like I said take my picks or fade em' I could really care less, however I will continue this system until it is no longer above 60% accuracy

Yeah I was looking at this play from last night when the spread was 7.5 so I was real iffy about the play. Now with the houston getting 72% of the bets the line moved down to 7 today. So marshall is the play. GL to you as I will be on marshall also.

yisman · 10-28-08, 05:46 PM

One more thing:

"- If I had followed this logic on Saturday and not included Kansas -1 (I think I really just wanted that play, and put emotion into it, which is the worst thing to do as a handicapper) then my record would have been 5 - 2. The K-State game should have covered but they gave up 2 chance to cover in the last 10 minutes.

-I know this is alot of "ifs" but I am seeing this system working and I followed the same logic, but forgot to post for NFL Sunday and ended up going 3 - 0 with Seattle + 5, KC +13, and Arizona +5. I know the validity is compromised because I did not post these before the game, but the money in my pocket proves my point.

-So in one weekend using this system I went 8 - 3, which means this system picked almost 73% correct."

Since you're including Kansas, the record would be 5-3.

Suprman0 · 10-29-08, 12:07 AM

After the Herd, stomped Houston tonight

- The system it's self is 6 - 2 thus far

- Whereas I am 6 - 3 right now because I added a pick that didnt fall in the system

McRich · 10-29-08, 03:27 PM

I used the RLM last night on Marshall to make my pick. I just learned about RLM here on this site last week. A couple of members helped me out a lot to understand this. I can tell it has already helped me become a better capper. One more tool to increase the profit margin.

I am using the RLM on the Suns/Spurs game tonight. Suns +2 for three units.

sportsguy04 · 10-29-08, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by McRich

I used the RLM last night on Marshall to make my pick. I just learned about RLM here on this site last week. A couple of members helped me out a lot to understand this. I can tell it has already helped me become a better capper. One more tool to increase the profit margin.

I am using the RLM on the Suns/Spurs game tonight. Suns +2 for three units.

I agree, I am also on the suns too.

SexyMit · 10-29-08, 04:44 PM

An even better one is Memphis against Houston. 80% on Houston and the line dropped half a point. I don't like to mess with games that don't have at least 70 or more percent on the games. Marshall last night was a big one, and am looking at Cincy for tomorrow. But like the Memphis even better then Suns, but might just play them both.

sportsguy04 · 10-29-08, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by SexyMit

An even better one is Memphis against Houston. 80% on Houston and the line dropped half a point. I don't like to mess with games that don't have at least 70 or more percent on the games. Marshall last night was a big one, and am looking at Cincy for tomorrow. But like the Memphis even better then Suns, but might just play them both.

I know this is a dumb question but where exactly can I see what percentage everyone is on?

Suprman0 · 10-29-08, 08:20 PM

I took a look at the Cincinnati game for tommorrow night, and while it may fall into the system. I do not feel this is a good play, yes over 70% of the public is on South Florida and there has been no line movement. Something is telling me the public might be right on this one especially with Tony Pike still being listed as questionable.
------THIS COULD VERY WELL BE ONE OF THE GAMES THE SYSTEM FAILS ON------

So its a no play for me, maybe a small play on the over

BadBeatBodog · 10-29-08, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Suprman0

I took a look at the Cincinnati game for tommorrow night, and while it may fall into the system. I do not feel this is a good play, yes over 70% of the public is on South Florida and there has been no line movement. Something is telling me the public might be right on this one especially with Tony Pike still being listed as questionable.
------THIS COULD VERY WELL BE ONE OF THE GAMES THE SYSTEM FAILS ON------

So its a no play for me, maybe a small play on the over

USF getting pounded but no line movement. The key here is they're -2.5; a move to -3 is big and the lack of a half point bump to three with the public all over USF is

McRich · 10-29-08, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

I know this is a dumb question but where exactly can I see what percentage everyone is on?

Here is a free service that I believe is a half hour behind. A poster here showed it to me.

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

etothep · 10-30-08, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by Suprman0

I took a look at the Cincinnati game for tommorrow night, and while it may fall into the system. I do not feel this is a good play, yes over 70% of the public is on South Florida and there has been no line movement. Something is telling me the public might be right on this one especially with Tony Pike still being listed as questionable.
------THIS COULD VERY WELL BE ONE OF THE GAMES THE SYSTEM FAILS ON------

So its a no play for me, maybe a small play on the over

If you're picking & choosing which games to make a play on when they fit your system, then don't call this an experiment on your system, as it clearly isn't.

I suggest making a new post to show results from your games, as opposed to editing your original post. Mostly due to you changing your record from 5-3 to 5-2 to 6-2 to 6-3...doesn't bode well for your credibility, in my opinion.

Suprman0 · 10-30-08, 01:14 PM

WOW, I'm close to being done on this forum

Ok to be very clear, I did not change my results. I clearly listed that:

-the SYSTEM itself is 6 - 2

-wheras I am 6 - 3 because I added a play that didn't fall into the system

- As for the SFLA/Cincy game, I said it falls under the system, however I said I will NOT be playing the game because I think the system may fail on it. I did say when I started this experiment that I was expecting to go 75%. There go there is a 25% chance of failure, and I believe this SFLA/Cincy game will be in that category. I didn't say I was picking and choosing, I said this a no play for me.

- You people who reply, REALLY, need to learn to read before you start typing, otherwise you just look like an idiot

Thien Co · 10-30-08, 02:28 PM

I had a parlay risk 100 to win 648...I already got 2 games that won, the last one is on S.Florida -3 tonight.....

I'm confused that should I leave it as it is or should I pick Cincin vs SF, at least get a half out of that...either any team win, I still get half money left.

or should I parlay Cincin with another teams?

Would it make sense to place 2 units on Cincin , 1 unit to parlay with another 2 teams?

or should I parlay 3 units Cincin with another 2 picks

I appreciate for your inputs....please help me out what action should I take? Do you have any better suggestion?

maritime · 10-30-08, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Thien Co

I had a parlay risk 100 to win 648...I already got 2 games that won, the last one is on S.Florida -3 tonight.....

I'm confused that should I leave it as it is or should I pick Cincin vs SF, at least get a half out of that...either any team win, I still get half money left.

or should I parlay Cincin with another teams?

Would it make sense to place 2 units on Cincin , 1 unit to parlay with another 2 teams?

or should I parlay 3 units Cincin with another 2 picks

I appreciate for your inputs....please help me out what action should I take? Do you have any better suggestion?

Either do nothing and stand with your original bet or put enough on cincy to get your original bet back. Definitely don't parlay Cincy with other teams. If you do, you could lose both bets and lose the value of the two games you've already won. I would just stand pat with your original parlay.

LOWRIDEVBV2001 · 10-30-08, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Thien Co

I had a parlay risk 100 to win 648...I already got 2 games that won, the last one is on S.Florida -3 tonight.....

I'm confused that should I leave it as it is or should I pick Cincin vs SF, at least get a half out of that...either any team win, I still get half money left.

or should I parlay Cincin with another teams?

Would it make sense to place 2 units on Cincin , 1 unit to parlay with another 2 teams?

or should I parlay 3 units Cincin with another 2 picks

I appreciate for your inputs....please help me out what action should I take? Do you have any better suggestion?

i think you should bet s florida on a parlay with other teams.....and a still do a straight wager on cinn to get money put down back....i do this all the time.....

Thien Co · 10-30-08, 04:57 PM

Thanks for all yours responses !!!

Thien Co · 10-30-08, 04:59 PM

First of all, thanks for all yours reply!

I will analyze step by step and see how it will go!

For ex: parlay 3 of risking 337 to win 2248

Cincin -2.5
Mi.ST -4.5
Boston -4

If S.F won = 648 - 337 = 311
IF Cin Won = -100
then 2nd game = 630/600 vs Mi.ST , if won 600 - (100 + 337) = 163 (Suck)

If Mi.St won = - 730 (total of losing on both games = -100 - 630)
then 3r game = 1050/1000 vs B.C, if won 1000 - 730 = 270

If B.C won (or 3 games of 2nd parlay) = 2248 - ( 100 + 630 + 1050 ) = 468 .

Well, after trying to analyze like those above steps. I conclude that I should have a straight wager of 200 on Cincin. In that case, if S.F won, I will get 648 - 200 = 448. On the other hand, if Cincin won, I still have another 100 bucks for next parlay teams I will pick later.

Suprman0 · 10-30-08, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Thien Co

First of all, thanks for all yours reply!

I will analyze step by step and see how it will go!

For ex: parlay 3 of risking 337 to win 2248

Cincin -2.5
Mi.ST -4.5
Boston -4

If S.F won = 648 - 337 = 311
IF Cin Won = -100
then 2nd game = 630/600 vs Mi.ST , if won 600 - (100 + 337) = 163 (Suck)

If Mi.St won = - 730 (total of losing on both games = -100 - 630)
then 3r game = 1050/1000 vs B.C, if won 1000 - 730 = 270

If B.C won (or 3 games of 2nd parlay) = 2248 - ( 100 + 630 + 1050 ) = 468 .

Well, after trying to analyze like those above steps. I conclude that I should have a straight wager of 200 on Cincin. In that case, if S.F won, I will get 648 - 200 = 448. On the other hand, if Cincin won, I still have another 100 bucks for next parlay teams I will pick later.

Dude, not to be a dick, but start a new thread and talk about this, not in here

chefspecialk · 11-01-08, 06:29 AM

Hey Suprman0 are you gonna post any plays for this week

McRich · 11-01-08, 08:10 AM

Here are my Reverse Line Movement bets for today.

Army +7.5 - three units.
Iowa St. +29 - three units.
Pitt. +4.5 - three units.