Michigan State @ Indiana

[Mr Handicapable]

Take Michigan State (-8.5)! I jumped on this the second I saw it! Indiana is probably the worst team in the Big Ten this year! They just got rolled by 22 at home by Ball State! Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis will scramble for good yardage but he's very inaccurate plus the Indiana receivers are too slow to stretch the field w/James Hardy gone to the NFL!
Michigan State has a huge O-line and Javon Ringer is good for 2 bills + 2-3 TDs minimum again against a small/weak front 7 that got gashed horribly last year too! This one will be a beatdown of 17+ without a doubt!

Michigan State 41
Indiana 20

[CaneDawg]

i agree. great pick. lets take it to the bank.

[louisvillekid]

yeah those Hoosiers cost me 50 bucks Sat. , i thought they were going to be decent this year, but i guess not. As for the pick, it seems great, i'm still looking into it, i had the Spartans ov ND on Sat, one of my only 2 plays i got right out of 6.

[Crayzee]

i like this -seems cant miss
i might buy the 8-1/2 down to 7 though

[Lout84]

This rivalry has been very hit or miss. I have checked this one out thouroughly and I have a bad feeling about it. Normally, if it seems too good to be true, it usually is. Indiana got beat by Michigan St last year by about 3 TDs, but the year before that (at home), Indiana won by 3 TDs. There is no good trend for this game. Home team usually wins.

[BuddyBear]

Have fun betting MSU as chalk on the road....been one of the worst bets you can make the past 10 years.

Indiana +9 for me.....

[Mr Handicapable]

Have fun betting MSU as chalk on the road....been one of the worst bets you can make the past 10 years.

Indiana +9 for me.....


Buddy,

The road team won 7 yrs in a row SU in the Mich St./ND series too but that changed didn't it? I'm a IU grad and I know this team! We don't have the size to compete on defense and James Hardy was the entire focus of our passing game....most of QB Kellen Lewis's past numbers were from chucking it up for grabs to the 6'7" Hardy! Our current receivers have no speed and the running game isn't much better! Lewis will get over 100 on the ground and could score a couple of TDs but I think this MSU team is better than past versions plus this isn't a long road trip and John L. Smith is long gone! They physically manhandled a decent Notre Dame defense that has alot better athletes than Indiana does!
Indiana just got blasted by Ball State by 22 who blanked the Hoosiers in the 2nd half w/their very average MAC defense! IU actually only scored 13 offensive pts w/a defensive TD coming on WR Dante Love's career ending injury (real shame NFL draft pick imo). A Big Ten team at home that can only score 13 off. pts vs a MAC team is pretty damn weak! I called shenanigans on the Wash. St/Baylor line...that it was atleast 2 TDs off (45-17) and this is no different. I'll be shocked if IU comes within 14!!

[BuddyBear]

I'm a IU grad and I know this team!

Hmmm, kind of irrelevant to being able to pick a winner. I am a grad too of one those two schools, but that does not qualify me to figure out which side is going to win.

but I think this MSU team is better than past versions plus this isn't a long road trip and John L. Smith is long gone!

Neither is Ann Arbor and they always lose there.

They physically manhandled a decent Notre Dame defense that has alot better athletes than Indiana does!

Maybe we watched different games, but MSU was up only 13-7 in the 4th quarter of that game. Hardly a slaughter like maybe the 23-7 final indicates.

Indiana just got blasted by Ball State by 22 who blanked the Hoosiers in the 2nd half w/their very average MAC defense!

Ball State is a lot better than people think. They have an NFL quality QB (unlike Brian Hoyer who might get a strong look from some Arena team in the future) After all, IU was only -3 in that game so it was expected that BSU would be competitive.

A Big Ten team at home that can only score 13 off. pts vs a MAC team is pretty damn weak! I called shenanigans on the Wash. St/Baylor line...that it was atleast 2 TDs off (45-17) and this is no different. I'll be shocked if IU comes within 14!!

Most of this is irrelevant. Baylor/WSU has no impact on the MSU/Indiana game. It's not a matter of being shocked or not, Indiana +9 is a very good number/price for this game and that's all that matters to me in the long run.

I think MSU has the capacity to blow them out, but I've seen enough MSU games in my day to know that MSU barely ever goes on the road and blows anyone out. Most of the time, they don't even win, so forget blow out. I'll take my chances with IU, but like I said, the main thing is the +9 number I took.

[Wassymac]

Great to see your thoughts here Buddy. I was curious what you thought about it. Thanks for the insight.

I'll be on the Hoosiers as well after fading them last week. If Hoyer can't complete a pass when ND puts 8 in the box for 60 minutes then I'm not sure he ever will. I like my chances with an embarrassed team at home vs a one dimensional running team coming off a rivalry game. This line should be in the 5 or 6 territory IMO. I just don't think MSU can score enough (barring Lewis INTs ran back for 6) with Ringer alone to cover the #. Hoyer could screw it up for me and play more like the CAL game but I'll take that risk.

Good luck to both sides here but I feel obligated to hit the home team for a couple bucks.

[Mr Handicapable]

Buddy,

Are you a Spartan grad? That explains it...we both know what to expect from our team! I know Ball State is a very strong team on offense w/Love anyway...Nate Davis is still a strong NFL prospect imo but I'm talking about their defense holding IU to 13 points! Big Ten teams shouldn't be held to 13 points offensively at home vs a MAC team! If MSU & Ringer can grind out 200 rushing on Notre Dame's D-line then IU's will be no problem...home or away! We'll just have to see how it plays out but I like a teams chances to win by atleast 10 if they can run at will and the dog is forced to pass or scramble w/the QB. Kellen Lewis could keep this close by himself and he'll have to...this isn't a good team! I like your writeups & gl to you!

By the way...I would call MSU's 203 rushing yds to 16 a manhandling! Doesn't guarantee a win and cover but it helps their cause. James Hardy singlehandedly carried IUs passing game last year and they're going to struggle bad without him! I respect Pags too but I don't understand why he goes against top teams like Florida, Georgia, etc. every week? I'm a Phil Steele protege....I like to find the weak sisters and overvalued teams and play against them as much as possible! Indiana is a weak sister in the Big Ten...both Minnesota and Iowa got better than them since last year! It will be interesting to see how it plays out!

[TPowell]

no clue about Big 10 football and started to lean Mich. St but its a no play either way. Ball State is a quality football team though

[pags11]

it's apparent to me that sharp money is coming in here on Indiana...as we all know the sharp side doesn't win all of the time, but I believe that it does a majority of the time...Indiana possesses a very good defense and I think they have good coaching...I love the Lewis kid, but he lacks playmakers at WR with the graduation of Hardy...the CF who plays WR, Powers I believe, is alright and their RB's are alright...the MSU defense has performed well this season with the exception of the Cal game and Ringer is great...the problem in going on the road in a game like this is that Bryan Hoyer is very shaky...I could only play the dog in this match-up (odd I know huh?), but am staying away...will still be rooting for buddybear though...

[pags11]

mr. handicapable,

I just saw your comment about my picks last week...and yes I did go against UGA two weeks in a row (one of the weeks I covered)...I definitely was stupid to go against three top 10 teams last week all in the same week, thus the reason for my terrible week (and the antics of Jim Harbaugh only further poured salt on the wounds)...however, if you have followed my picks long enough you'll see that's not a trend...I love Phil Steele as much as the next guy and am not against playing against teams, but just remember if you want to truly be successful in the long run you need to put your money ON a team, not AGAINST a team...obviously, if you can find a team not playing well vs. one that is then it's like 50/50, but continually trying to play against teams can backfire on you...hope you don't mind my input, as usual it's free of charge...BOL man and feel free to ask questions like that to me in my thread...it won't offend me...

[Mr Handicapable]

2 starters from the secondary out for the Hoosiers (one season ending) & starter Austin Thomas who missed the Ball State game may be a gameday decision! I smell a beatdown!! IU will try to stuff the box which will only work occasionally and even Hoyer will be able to hit wide open receivers off of play-action!

[onthewhat]

i go to iu....

take michigan state big

[Mr Handicapable]

Got my Power Sweep (Phil Steele) today and he has MSU 38-17! Prior to 2006...MSU had won 4 in a row in Bloomington by an avg. of 24 ppg! MSU has been a bad AF over the years but this trip shouldn't be too difficult! I put the same amount on MSU Over 28.5 team total which might be a better bet since IU could possibly score/cover but absolutely NO way they stop MSU's running game!

[BuddyBear]

Hmmm, I guess we are all going to be rooting against our alma matar's this weekend

I am not sure what is going to happen, as I lost my crystal ball this past summer when I left it on the bus, but I do know a couple things:

1) Phil Steele write the best NCAAF magazine in the world, but is just a 50/50 tout when it comes to picking games. It's always nice to seek out those individuals who share the same views but when you think about it, it really does not change much. Nobody knows what is going to happen except some omnipotent being, so that is why it is critical to get the best number.

2) Michigan State has a great running game, but Indiana has even better one and on run defense, Indiana is better than MSU there too.

3) You guys have quite a bit of faith in a MSU blowout considering those are few and far in between on the road. MSU is just 4-10 ATS as a road favorite the past 8 years. To be fair, IU is only 10-18 as a home underdog in that same time span.

4) Indiana may have some injuries as noted by MR. H, but money still seems to be coming in on Indiana for what it is worth.

As I noted, I took IU +9 and feel that I got a great price on this game. I am not sure where this line is going to close but am content that I got the best number win or lose. That's pretty sums up how I feel about this game. Just get the best number on the games and things will take care of themselves (in the long run).

Good luck guys!

[Mr Handicapable]

People whack me all the time about Phil Steele but some cling to the cappers on here like they're GOD I don't pay for his late phone picks but Power Sweep has been solid pretty much year after year in CFB! Their NFL was strong in 07 but traditionally he's better at NCAA! I don't get a penny from him and he doesn't know me but I will state for FACT that they were 20-4 ATS in the first 24 bowl games last year! Thats not 50/50 dartboard stuff! I use it for reference...I will play some of his picks and rarely if ever play against him. For example his 5 star pick Sept. Game of the Month was Auburn (-9.5) over Miss. St. I didn't like it..didn't play it and it was a loser!

Documented Power Sweep Plays this year that I receive in the mail every Wed. (printed on Sunday night/Monday I think?)

NCAA 13-8 +9 units
NFL 7-3 +14 units

[BuddyBear]

People whack me all the time about Phil Steele but some cling to the cappers on here like they're GOD I don't pay for his late phone picks but Power Sweep has been solid pretty much year after year in CFB! Their NFL was strong in 07 but traditionally he's better at NCAA! I don't get a penny from him and he doesn't know me but I will state for FACT that they were 20-4 ATS in the first 24 bowl games last year! Thats not 50/50 dartboard stuff! I use it for reference...I will play some of his picks and rarely if ever play against him. For example his 5 star pick Sept. Game of the Month was Auburn (-9.5) over Miss. St. I didn't like it..didn't play it and it was a loser!

Documented Power Sweep Plays this year that I receive in the mail every Wed. (printed on Sunday night/Monday I think?)

NCAA 13-8 +9 units
NFL 7-3 +14 units

And your point was? People should whack you all the time for following Phil Steele. How can you possibly say that Phil Steele has been solid? Are you seriously joking or something? Give me money and I will give you losing picks if you want.

You don't look at 24 bowl games or 21 plays into this year or some fancy writeup and arrive at a definitive conclusion about the quality of a capper. That's not how it works. Give me Phil Steele's last 3000 NCAAF plays and then we'll talk. It is well known that Phil Steele is a 50/50 capper/tout. He is a business man. He could care less if you win or lose, he's already secured your money. If he wins, you'll pay again next year. If he loses, oh well, someone else will buy it. Just the way it works. If any of these touts were good they would just play their own picks and get rich off them like they claim.

Last year he started on fire and faded and then had a strong bowl season to cap an otherwise lackluster year for him. In fact, all his years are lackluster. I can't even believe you fall for his stuff.

Q: Hey BuddyBear, if he is 50/50 how about some evidence to show that Phil Steele (Northcoast Sports) is just an average handicapper then? No way he is a 50/50 capper, haven't you seen all that info in his magazine?

A: http://sports-watch.com/

YEAR
2002 37-48 -15.8 UNITS
2003 43-41 -2.1 UNITS
2004 39-38 -2.8 UNITS
2005 44-39 1.1 UNITS
2006 43-39 .01 UNITS
2007 50-47 -1.7 UNITS

Total: 256-252 (50.39%) -21.29 UNITS

So with a n=508 over the past 6 years, Phil Steele has demonstrated that he is a 50/50 cappers who has lost his backers more than 21 units. In short, you'd be better off flipping a coin then following Phil Steele's picks. If you throw in the bowl games, he has done slightly better turning a small profit there, but nowhere near enough to even remotely get out the red.

So, ummm yeah, you might want to start listening to those friends who laugh at you for following his plays.

[pags11]

buddybear,

have I mentioned that I like it when you get fired up?...gets me pumped for the weekend's games!

[BuddyBear]

And don't get me wrong, Phil Steele is a very very nice guy. I have heard him on the radio several times and he gives great interviews and is a wealth of information. His college football magazine, bar none, is the best NCAAF magazine that has ever been put together. The level of detail and effort that goes into that magazine is amazing. It's a must have for any handicapper or college football fan in general.

However, just b/c you know everything about NCAAF does not make you a great handicapper. It goes well beyond that. Phil Steele has built his reputation around the success of his NCAAF publications. Don't be fooled into thinking that if you subscribe to his picks you'll be riding the money train real soon. He's shown himself to be a losing capper time and time again. Buy the magazine and use it to make your own picks.

[LT Profits]

I LOVE Indiana catching more than a touchdown at home here. I don't quite get all the love for Michigan State, as they don't have the passing attack this year to run up scores, espepecially on the road. In fact, these are similar teams in that both have run-oriented offenses, both are better at defending the run than the pass and neither team has the passing tools to exploit the other teams weaker area.

I see a tight game decided by a field goal either way.

[Sushkillah]

Take Ringer is the answer, he alone will cover this spread. On satuday, it will be Ringer, Ringer, Ringer, alll day. IU is solid in many respects but this will be the first nfl rb prospect that they will face this year. Take State

Michigan ST 28 IU 17

[LT Profits]

And I wounder why sports-watch only monitored me in 2004.

[Mr Handicapable]

And don't get me wrong, Phil Steele is a very very nice guy. I have heard him on the radio several times and he gives great interviews and is a wealth of information. His college football magazine, bar none, is the best NCAAF magazine that has ever been put together. The level of detail and effort that goes into that magazine is amazing. It's a must have for any handicapper or college football fan in general.

However, just b/c you know everything about NCAAF does not make you a great handicapper. It goes well beyond that. Phil Steele has built his reputation around the success of his NCAAF publications. Don't be fooled into thinking that if you subscribe to his picks you'll be riding the money train real soon. He's shown himself to be a losing capper time and time again. Buy the magazine and use it to make your own picks.

Like I said...thats basically what I do...but in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM is he 50/50! I don't keep them beyond the current season and I can't vouch for his late phone picks but I have had the newsletter for over 10 years and it is a winner....some years better than others! You're trying to lump him in w/boiler room Jim Feist scammers and thats totally false. He never claims to be on 17-1 on Monday nights or any of these outrageous numbers you hear from these hacks! Does he have faults..sure...currently he's got a fixation on picking/losing w/his sad-sack hometown Browns? The most common amateur mistake you can make! Bottom line is he's helped me be profitable over the years and thats all that matters to me! Anyway, I only put limited faith in a newsletter that is printed 6 days before the games with limited info on the spread, injuries, etc!

[BuddyBear]

Like I said...thats basically what I do...but in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM is he 50/50!

What more evidence do you need other than the previous 6 years? He is a losing capper man. And that's as far back as I could go to get info on him. Look above, the numbers are documented. To be fair, give him credit for even being monitored but that does not change the fact that he is a losing capper. By chance alone you should hit 50% ATS in sports betting. Given that he is a documented 50.39% the previous 6 years tells me pretty much all I need to know about how good Phil Steele is.

Really there is little sense in following him, let alone bragging to people that you follow his advice on games. It just does not make you look very smart or interested in winning.

[onthewhat]

LT Profits...PLEASE I am begging you do not throw your money away on IU +9.

MSU -8 (number was widely avail earlier in week) is my play of the year. The IU fan base has completely given up on the team after the beat down last week, coupled with the 12 noon start this Saturday means the student attendance will be poor and playing at IU is not a true "road game". Boys I am dead serious here, take MSU -8 and count your money afterwards.

[Mr Handicapable]

Buddy,

Why don't you try the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma!

2006 Late phones 58% 3rd highest in profits
2005 Inner Circle 64%
Small College Club 62.5%
2004 Late phones 67.2%
2001 Totals 66.7
Inner Circle 84.6% (11-2)

Don't know about 2002-03...maybe he sucked but that doesn't look like 50% to me but I don't know...maybe you specialize in Republican math??

[BuddyBear]

LT Profits...PLEASE I am begging you do not throw your money away on IU +9.

MSU -8 (number was widely avail earlier in week) is my play of the year. The IU fan base has completely given up on the team after the beat down last week, coupled with the 12 noon start this Saturday means the student attendance will be poor and playing at IU is not a true "road game". Boys I am dead serious here, take MSU -8 and count your money afterwards.

Have you considered for just a moment that Ball State might actually be a very good team? Have you considered that MSU has been a putrid road favorite over the years? I can understand liking MSU, but to this degree is just ridiculous.

IU has better stats in their running game and run defense. Throw in the fact that it is at home should provide something of a boost. I can't remember the exact trend or system, but teams that lose at home as a favorite are a strong bet if they are at home the following week as underdogs. It's been a pretty strong trend over the years. If anything, I think Indiana is a very strong play, much more so than MSU. IMO at least.....

[Mr Handicapable]

I haven't bragged about using Power Sweep or tried to pass off his info or picks as my own...which I've seen on here before! I do mention his side or trends if someone asks for help on a game!

onthewhat,

You know the drill....all IU fans have seen it against power teams...how do we do against Wisconsin every year? Get steamrolled physically upfront! This MSU team is very much like Wisky imo! Only reason we beat them in 2006 was John L. Smith was such a loser that they were out of it mentally! Kellen Lewis will run all over hell...make a few big plays but turn it over a couple of times which will fuel this rout!
MSU put up 52 on IU last year and let off the gas in the 4th qtr!

[BuddyBear]

Buddy,

Why don't you try the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma!

2006 Late phones 58% 3rd highest in profits
2005 Inner Circle 64%
Small College Club 62.5%
2004 Late phones 67.2%
2001 Totals 66.7
Inner Circle 84.6% (11-2)

Don't know about 2002-03...maybe he sucked but that doesn't look like 50% to me but I don't know...maybe you specialize in Republican math??

Sorry if anyone specializes in Republican math it is not me. How big are those sample sizes you are referring to? Where did you access that info from? When you have percentages like 64%, 66.7%, 84.6& we are most probably talking about small sample sizes.

What about the 500 or so picks over the past 6 years? What do you have to say about that? Why is that ignored in favor of his late-telephone service? It's almost like the past 6 years are irrelevant. But as long as he started out 20-4 ATS in bowl games last year, well that's what it's important to you I guess that Phil Steele can show a glimpse of success here and there.

Look, i understand you spend money on these things and have to somehow justify such an expense. But the numbers are numbers. I presented to you his last 6 years record and showed you that he is nothing more than 50/50 capper and has lost 21 units for his backers. You tell me who is misinterpretting or ignoring the evidence.

I even want out of my way to effusively compliment his magazine and personality. Does not change the record at all though....

[Mr Handicapable]

IU has better stats in their running game

Javon Ringer rips off 200+ every game...Indiana has played W. Michigan, Murray State, and a MAC defense!

make that W. Kentucky (1st yr in D1...not W. Michigan)

[yahoonino]

This rivalry has been very hit or miss. I have checked this one out thouroughly and I have a bad feeling about it. Normally, if it seems too good to be true, it usually is. Indiana got beat by Michigan St last year by about 3 TDs, but the year before that (at home), Indiana won by 3 TDs. There is no good trend for this game. Home team usually wins.

I AGREE

[BuddyBear]

IU has better stats in their running game

Javon Ringer rips off 200+ every game...Indiana has played W. Michigan, Murray State, and a MAC defense!

hmmm...i guess numbers are not your strong suit? Again, there is an objective truth out there. Does MSU have a better rushing game than IU?

(#9) IU: 269.0 RY per game/5.7 yds per rush
(#29) MSU: 195.2 RY per game/4.2 yds per rush

I mean, you could have looked this up right?

[LT Profits]

BB,

Too be fair, I think Handi kwew that when he stressed the opponents that Indiana faced.

Well, he did overstate Ringer's numbers.