Pags....
its been a long time.... GL this season bro
its been a long time.... GL this season bro
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Comment -
i m your #1 fan pags this is my first time posting ever and can you give me some advise on Thursday game? i do like NC+5 over Rutger can you tell me about that pick
Thank alot
BOL manComment -
Hey Pags,
I love your work here! I did go post against you before the Missouri & TX Tech games the last 2 weeks but I know what you mean...easy for people to second guess on here! I think you talked me into Rice....I posted them on here on the ML last week and that was one of the greatest wins I can remember! Down 15 late...comeback to tie...pray for OT and win it in regulation on a pick/6! They really don't have many athletes but they find a way to compete! Any thoughts on Ball State (-7) at Akron? Both are 2-0 ATS but I just think BSU is too loaded on offense for other MAC schools this year! GL...thanks again!Comment -
gopher,
I stick with the ammounts I play them at...I do play games mid week at matchbook, because I have a group of investors that I wager for...was able to get Purdue +7 (+109) and BYU -8.5 (+107)...that being said, if I could only make one wager per game, I would stick with the first number and ammount...to make it worth my while playing early I feel I need to be right 66% in terms of getting the better number, but seem to do so about 80% of the time usually...hope this helps...
bmac,
thank you...good to see you around my friend...GL to you as well...
khoale,
thanks very much for saying that...regarding the UNC/Rutgers game based on the current line it's a no play for me...I have concerns about both teams at this point, but would start to consider UNC at 6.5 or more...GL on whatever you decide to play, but I definitely wouldn't lay points in that game...
Mr. Handicapable,
yeah, I probably didn't read your post...I have no doubts you were on the two plays...thanks for understanding what I'm saying though...I watched the tape of the Rice vs. Memphis game, what a game...great call on your part...I wouldn't get involved in laying the road chalk with Ball St. this week...granted I don't follow the Sun Belt or MAC much, but Akron has themselves a nice little homefield advantage and Ball St.'s defense didn't really impress me last week...GL with whatever you decide...
cheehee,
stick around the forum a while and I'm sure you will be able to come to that decision on your own...Comment -
pags,
your the man bro, but you don't need me to tell you that . . .
I with you on several picks this week again. . .Comment -
Pags, thanks for your picks again this week brother. No comments about the Ole Miss game though please!! I was about ready to jump off the deep end after that one (atleast we covered the spread I guess). GL this week and ill definitely be tailing you on a couple picks!Comment -
thank you pags yeah right now i got NC +5.5 and i think Rutger offence without Rice is not gana do any damage
your THE BESTComment -
hi pags it's me again check out these pick and see what do you think
Thursday
NC +5.5
Friday
S. Florida -3
Saturday
TCU -13 (5 unit )
Iowa -13.5 (5 units )
Arkon +7 (3 units )
Airforce +4.5 (3 units )
Baylor +2 (3 units )
thank youComment -
pag's I just wanted to congratulate you on your week 2 picks. I made a "newbie" post lightly critizing your week 1 picks and in all fairness I want to recognize your week 2 success. Still learning. Appreciate the hard work.Comment -
thanks bmac...
kid,
good to hear we will be on some more picks together this week...BOL to you...
Alry,
thank you...I won't say a word about any Ole Miss games unless you ask...GL this week...
khoale,
I'll be pulling for you...thanks man...
I don't have an opinion on USF game, nor do I on four of the five Sat. games you played...I have the slightest of leans to ISU but only at 14 or more and it isn't really much of a lean...GL...
mr. jinks,
I appreciate your post and thank you for your consideration...I have no problem with someone coming in before the games and telling me they are on the other side, it's just the guys that come in after the fact playing Saturday evening QB that irritates me...thanks again and GL...Comment -
Stay hot pags...GL this week... You think Duke can slow down that Navy offense enough for the W.Comment -
1ST post, but been lurking for a while…
A couple thoughts / things to consider:
So Car - they have thrown 6 pics in 66 atts this year, that is 1 every 11 atts…not that any team can continue this pace (that would equate to 44 ints last year based on USCs total pass atts), but Spurrier now saying he is going to platoon smelly and beecher this week, isn’t a good sign he sees the issues at QB being solved anytime soon. USCs defense is silly good, and I think keeps UGA in check (under 400 and30 pts), and wouldn’t be shocked at 250yds /20 pts. Still I’m not sold on SCs offense, and UGAs defense should be better than last year…I can definitely see SCs defense holding UGA to 20-24 pts, but if USC continues to TO the ball, I can easily see a short field or two for UGA and a couple easy scores. Even w/o any TOs for USC, I think they struggle to go for more than 300 – 325 yards offense which should be 17-24 pts…to me it seems like one to steer clear of, could just as easily go 30-14 UGA as 24-20 UGA, can’t see USC winning without a large amount of ST and TO luck (which they probably are due), but with as bad as SCs offense has looked I can also see a 250 yd / 3-9 point day…which is the kicker for me to stay clear..
Miss St +10’ –
Auburn’s def is legit, and they have been un-real vs the run…holding Fletcher to 30 yds last week and UL-M to under 100 the weak before is pretty good (particularly given the fact Blackmon and Marks only played 20 snaps vs ULM)…mind you those teams aren’t SEC caliber, but Damien Fletcher would start for half the SEC teams, plus every SEC school wanted DeAndre Brown (he couldn’t qualify at the SEC schools so went to USM vs JUCO route) so they have a couple skill players. ULM’s offense isn’t anything to sneeze at either (different team (somewhat) but they beat the Tide last year and gave Ark (albeit they are pretty down this year) all they wanted last week). All Miss St really has this year on offense is Anthony Dixon, and I can’t see him having any more success than Fletcher last week or ULM the week before…without a run threat an average at best Wesley Carroll without any real talent at WR will struggle vs. Auburns blazing quick DL.
A lot has been made about Auburn’s new spread offense, and it hasn’t really clicked yet…but consider they are still averaging nearly 400 ypg, and have done it on the ground when they needed to and in the air when they needed to. Last weeks game vs USM was not near as close as the score indicated. 2 fumbles by Lester and Tate inside the 10 in the 1st half and a Robert Dunn PR for a TD that was called back for a block in the back 20 yards behind the play essentially erased 15-21 points off the board which would have made the USM game look a lot different on the scoreboard and this line would be closer to 14-16 (which is a more appropriate line – go back and look at MSUs SEC lines vs the upper half the last couple years). Starting Todd last week was a good sign for the AU offense, but more importantly it was giving him 70% of the practice snaps this week and last week that will start to pay off for this offense, as he is definitely the QB most attuned to run Franklins dink and dunk system. I am still not 100% convinced this offense will be the end all be all, but with Auburn’s D if their O can just consistently post 325-350+ ypg and 23-30 ppg they will be a force.
Todd’s 1st start on the road keeps me off this one, but I can’t see what you are hoping for if you back Miss St here, other than a flat AU performance with a lot of TOs (which given Miss St’s upset of AU last year largely bc of 4 AU turnovers I think is highly unlikely). Anyway, this is another one I think best to steer clear of. I can’t see Miss St doing much more than 10-17 pts here and 250 +/- yards…as a 10 pt dog it seems like a dicey proposition that Auburn is held to 20-27. can it happen sure, 24-17 / 23-20 seems fair, but just as likely 30-10, 28-14…plus with Auburns D I can easily see a flat offensive performance by AU and still not covering bc of an inept Miss St O 24-3, 20-7, etc).
BYU-
I like them also, but I still haven’t figured UCLA out and with a couple other games on the board I think I’ll wait a week or two to get a little more qualitative data on the Bruins…that said, BYU is legit and I think if there is a side to be on you are on the right one..
GT –
I love them this year, and think Paul Johnson with a substantive upgrade in talent (particularly at WR, and with a QB who can pass in Josh Nesbit as well as a legit RB in Jonahtan Dwyer…both of who had offers from about half the SEC and ACC schools) is going to do really well in the ACC this year… but with the win last week vs BC and VTs wk 1 loss to ECU, I think you are giving up some line value. Plus Beamer pulling the shirt off Tarrod Taylor will change the dynamic of this game compared to VT vs ECU. I am with you and I like GT and think they probably have a 50-50 chance to win, but a few too many things going against this one for me to ride with you. Taylor back creates too much statistical uncertainty for me.
Others –
I have the Fresno / Wisc as a toss up, but I can’t fault you for backing ole’ handle bars…I like Purdue also, but Oregon has put up gaudy numbers on O and until I see what Tillers Def does vs legit comp (sorry North Colorado fans), I’ll have to watch…my math has 427-500+ yds offense for Oregon…still Purdue has the horses to keep pace…should be a fun game to watch.
I am on the other side of the Rice game, not sold yet on Rice’s offense in spite of their numbers (look at what those Ds allowed to the other teams they’ve played…36 pts and 465 yds offense allowed to TexasSt by SMU last week), Vandy’s D has looked pretty good vs decent competition…Vandy’s injuries have me a little worried, but still think this line is a little off…I have Vandy in a 34-22 type game, but I’ll admit it takes a lot of extrapolation to arrive at that estimate, and you could be dead on with Rice’s offense…this is another game I’d like to see, as I think it should be a really fun game to watch.
I run a little bit different system than most which looks at a blend of a couple unique math models combined with my own statistical projections, then I evaluate each of those games individually based on the intangibles (sort of a mix of mathematical similarities, statistical analysis, and cold old fashion elbow grease)…games I have sort of circled in on this week are: Airforce, southern miss, western kent, TCU, vandy, boise, and navy…be curious to here anyone’s thoughts on those…big Ike and some key injuries have me a little worried about a couple of them.
Good luck, I’ve really enjoyed reading the info here, and hopefully people will enjoy what I have to say…I am still working on my final card for the week and will try and post something Friday evening when I wrap it upComment -
drluck,
thank you sir...I had Duke make my short list and I do like their squad, but I have some concerns about them in the favorite role this week as they are still learning to finish games...also, QB Kaipo is back for Navy and he has shown to be the more efficient QB between him and Bryant, not to mention the Shun White kid is a stud...slightest of leans to Duke, but won't be playing the game...
thegeeksheet,
thanks for your insight on the games...I don't use much of a math model, just a blend of fundamental, situational and technical handicapping...that and I use my own eyes a lot in watching these teams...I'll have a lot to say in my write-up later today...GL to you...Comment -
I'm on the same side as you on three of your games
BYU -7.5 ...I bought it to -7
Fresno St +2...man this line changed and it's supposed to be 98 degrees on Saturday as well, I bought it to +3..will add a little on the ML later
Georgia Tech +6 I bought it to +7
GL Pags!!Comment -
Baylor game got cancel
also Houston v.s Airforce got cancelComment -
Hey Pags,
Regarding this Baylor/Wash. St. game....it was moved up to Friday due to another hurricane threat! Do you lean either way? I've already played Baylor (-1) but since the date has changed....its probably voided out? I love Coach Art Briles....did a super job w/Houston and Wash. St. is horrible? Any thoughts here....thanks!Comment -
pag i really need you to have a bad week , georgia , usc , auburn east carolina . see what i mean/????Comment -
Fresno st and iowa st this weekComment -
Pags,
I've waited too long this week and GT/VT has gone to 6 1/2. I wanna take GT. Would you take them at +6 1/2?
thanksComment -
Hey Pags, Thanks For The Picks This Week. I Was Wondering What Ur Thoughts Were With The California Game. Maryland Has Looked Not So Good With A Not To Impressive Victory Over Delaware......what Are Ur ThoughtsComment -
westsidepete,
good to hear we are on those three games together...GL to you...
khoale,
thanks for the update...
mr. handicapable,
I was a little surprise that Wazzu started as the fav...I think the line is about right now, and with all of the uncertainity I wouldn't advise getting involved in the game...
linecrusher,
I hope you are able to sleep ok the next two nights...
I luv,
good luck with those two plays...
cobbet,
I'd feel a lot more comfortable with a full TD in that game, but 6.5 is still a fair number for G.T...no opinion on the Cal vs. Maryland game...GL to you...Comment -
wire,
I just can't recommend laying that kind of road chalk for a cross-country game...while I admit Cal is playing well and Maryland is playing poorly, it's strictly a no play for me...GL with what you decide...Comment -
GL this week pags!Comment -
usckingsfan,
GL to you as well this week...Comment -
Pags, Michigan Over Notre Dame....i Love This One......Comment -
wire,
GL with that one...
taurus,
always appreciate your feedback ol' pal...glad we will be on some together and yeah let's be glad we won't be involved in one of his games this week...GL to you bud...Comment -
Pags, are the write-ups coming this week? I'm new to the board and I've really liked reading them. Thx
Comment -
write-ups please... just joking pags but you are keeping me up late lolComment -
Pags
Whats up wild man ??? I hate to see you on South Carolina you might want to look at this one again. SC is horrible. I layed the wood on Georgia -7 bought down to -6 1/2 I hope we both win but I think Georgia wins this one by 17-20 points. When I saw the line I thought it was a mistake.Comment -
South Carolina +8
Everyone was in love with South Carolina last week and now they won’t touch them with a ten foot pole. Has that much really changed in one week? What most people don’t understand is that every week is different in college football and certain weeks teams match up with their opponents better than others. Taking a closer look at last week’s box score, I felt that South Carolina’s defense, which I feel is the cornerstone of their team, played well. This is a defense that returns ten starters from last year and performed extremely well the week before vs. North Carolina St. LB Jasper Brinkley will have to step up his level of play in this game, as this is his third game back recovering from the season ending injury he sustained last year. He leads the line backing corps who will have their hands full in trying to contain Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno. A key element in this game will be the play of the South Carolina secondary. South Carolina returns all four starters including their nickel and dime defensive back who have starting experience. All four starters are upper classmen as well, who are part of a group that as a whole has played Georgia very tough. The front seven will load the box and leave the secondary to cover WR’s Mohamed Massaquoi and Tripp Chandler. I do feel South Carolina will be able to pressure QB Matthew Stafford, who has a talented but inexperienced offensive line. Those of you that were able to watch last year’s game between these two probably understand that South Carolina matches up well with Georgia. Some of you may say, “Last year doesn’t mean a thing!”, but I don’t agree. You can’t ignore technical trends, which is something I’m trying to pay attention more to in my handicapping this year. Much has been made about “the game passing Steve Spurrier by” this past week. While I agree I sense Spurrier’s frustration at times, he is still one of the better football coaches in the country, he just happens to be coaching in the best conference in the nation where there are no easy wins. South Carolina senior RB Mike Davis is arguably the most underrated RB in the SEC and I expect a great performance out of him this week. TE Jared Cook stepped up last week to show people why NFL scouts are so high on him. It appears that WR Kenny McKinley will miss this week’s game with a hamstring injury, being listed as doubtful for the game. This will mean that WR’s Moe Brown, Dion Lecorn and Freddie Brown will have to step up this week. From listening to Spurrier’s press conference, I anticipate him starting QB Smelley, who has performed the best so far this season, although the latest report has highly touted Stephen Garcia playing some as well. I give a slight edge in special teams to South Carolina as they return their kicker, punter, kick returner and punt returner. If the game comes down to a kick, you can count on South Carolina’s senior K Ryan Succop. If South Carolina is able to limit their turnovers and play tough defense, they will be able to get into the fourth quarter of this game and let the fans rally behind them. Never underestimate the Ol’ Ball Coach and his team in these types of games.
BYU -9
I watched BYU play UCLA last year in the regular season and out gain them at the Rose Bowl, in what was QB Max Hall’s first road start of his career. I then watched the Las Vegas Bowl where BYU dominated the first half of the game and witness the only major coaching mistake I’ve ever seen Bronco Mendenhall make, where he ran a play at the end of the half with 30 secs. left when he should have taken a knee. BYU then fumbled and minutes later went into the half up four points, instead of eleven. What I’m saying is that I feel UCLA covering in both of these circumstances was a bit sketchy and now that BYU gets them at home it presents an entirely different situation. What’s interesting about these two teams, ATS speaking specifically, is that BYU is great at home and UCLA struggles on the road. There’s no doubt that UCLA’s win vs. Tennessee was gritty, gutsy and heartfelt by many fans across the country who were rooting for new head coach Rick Neuheisel and his squad. The bottom line, though, from that game is that QB Kevin Craft had four interceptions and UCLA had a total of 29 yards rushing. When a team goes on the road, it’s extremely important that they are able to establish a running game and have balance on offense. Otherwise you become one dimensional and the defense gets to pin their ears back and rush the passer. BYU’s strength on defense is with their run defense, as they held opponents to three yards per carry last year. This should mean Kraft being in third in long situations most of the day. I am impressed with UCLA’s defensive line, and I do think that their defense can keep the game fairly close for the first two to three quarters. However, I think UCLA’s struggles on offense will leave their defense on the field far too long up in Provo’s thin air and cause them to wear out. BYU QB Max Hall is playing as well as any quarterback in the country after his first two games. It’s amazing to think that ASU had both him, Rudy Carpenter and Sam Keller all in the same depth chart at one time. Talk about a log jam. His transfer has worked out for Coach Mendenhall’s squad, who returns their top four ball carriers and seven of their top eight pass catchers from last year’s team. As I explained last week about Penn St., I like to look for offenses that possess a great deal of balance. BYU’s success on offense definitely starts with Hall and his incredible arm strength and decision making, but he has some great players to throw the ball to. WR Austin Collie reminds me a lot of Mike Haas from Oregon State a few years ago and TE Dennis Pitta has shown early on to be one of the top tight ends in the country. RB Harvey Unga has the ability to run between the tackles, but also break it outside, and is a key to their running game. I see the special teams being about even in this game. I hear a lot the perceived value with UCLA this week, but I’ll do something that I rarely do and lay nine with the MWC team vs. the Pac 10 team.
Georgia Tech +7.5
I remember watching N.C. State’s defensive line a couple of years ago, a year in which they had several NFL draft picks that year. In watching Georgia Tech’s defensive line play last week it brought to mind how extremely important a defensive line is to being a successful team in general, and also against the spread. Senior DT Vance Walker, 1st Team All-ACC last year and third team All-American, anchors the line and draws consistent double teams. Senior DT Darryl Richard is also extremely talented and moving converted LB Derrick Morgan to DE has paid dividends for Paul Johnson’s squad. In watching their game last week, Georgia Tech’s pressure was able to shut down B.C.’s run game and forced a lot of QB hurries. They will have to face an added dimension this week in scrambling QB Tyrod Taylor. Fortunately for Georgia Tech, Taylor doesn’t appear to have many playmakers surrounding him. RB Brandon Ore was kicked off the team this past off-season, leaving RB Kenny Lewis as their returning leading rusher (231 yds. last year). Virginia Tech also lost their top four pass catchers from last year and that will put a lot of pressure on Taylor to make plays with his legs. Georgia Tech likes to keep things in front of them and played very well last week in the red zone. I anticipate more of the same from them this week. Offensively, I came away from last week’s game extremely impressed with RB Johnathon Dwyer. He was one of the most highly touted running backs in his class and I am really starting to see why. He has explosion speed that gets him through holes, but also breakaway speed to take it the distance. Not only do I think he is one of the top running backs in the ACC, but I also feel he is one of the top running backs in the nation. QB Josh Nesbitt made plays with his feet and arm last week and WR Demaryius Thomas is quickly becoming his favorite target. Thomas is a big target with good hands, and runs well after the catch. Although Virginia Tech usually possesses a good run defense, defending the triple option with one week to prepare can be a difficult task. Both teams lost most of their key special teams players from last year; you have to give a slight edge to the Virginia Tech squad. The coaching match-up between Johnson and Frank Beamer is also about even. That being said, if Georgia Tech can limit big plays from the Virginia Tech’s special teams unit, they should have advantages on both offense and defense in this game. Going into Blacksburg is not an easy task, but I feel Georgia Tech is up for the challenge.
Mississippi St. +10.5
What you have to understand about the SEC is that there isn’t much difference between the top and bottom team in the conference. I respect Tommy Tubberville and his Auburn team, but they are still very young in several key positions and asking them to go into Starkville and lay double digits is a difficult task. Many of you are aware that I played against MSU in week one due to some situational trends, key injuries and the fact they were a big favorite. This week, though, they are in a much different role as an in conference, double digit, home underdog. These two teams are actually very similar in that they rely greatly on their defense and running game. Mississippi State centers their offense around junior RB Anthony Dixon. Dixon runs extremely hard and also has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. QB Wesley Carroll has steadily improved and will have his opportunities in this game, as I expect the Auburn defense to load the box to try and stop the run. An interesting statistic that I read this week is that Carroll has yet to be sacked so far this year. This is a sign of his increased mobility that will help him vs. the Auburn pass rush. MSU WR’s Brandon McCrae and Aubrey Bell will present a challenge for the undersized Auburn DB’s and if they can help move the chains and keep the ball away from the Auburn offense, it will also allow the MSU defense to rest on the sidelines. It was interesting to see late last year, when former Auburn offensive coordinator Al Borges resigned and head coach Tommy Tubberville brought in former Troy OC Tony Franklin in to run a run-based spread. Long term I do feel this is the right call, but in the short term it may throw Auburn’s offense off a bit. The MSU defense is by far the most physical defense Auburn has faced to date, and solid defense is always a staple of MSU head coach Sylvester Croom’s squads. They return a majority of their tacklers from last year’s team, including pre-season All-American SS Derek Pegues. Nine of MSU’s defensive starters are seniors and this group has been together for quite sometime now. They will not be intimidated by Auburn’s QB play and will focus on containing the Auburn running game, led by RB Brad Lester. Both teams have experienced special teams units and also exceptional punt returner in MSU’s Pegues and Auburn’s Robert Dunn. I see the special teams being about even. Starkville, Mississippi is not an easy place to play and I anticipate an inspired performance from Mississippi State on Saturday.
Rice +8.5
Rice QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard will soon become the all-time leading passing TD connection in NCAA history, which is truly amazing. Someone forgot to tell both of these two and the rest of the Rice team that they weren’t supposed to be any good this year. Clement is accurate, a good decision maker and has excellent footwork. He has the ability to escape a pass rush and make plays with his legs. Dillard is one of the hardest guys to defend one-on-one in the entire country and gets stronger as his team reaches the red zone. With all of the attention being paid to Dillard by defenses, sophomore TE James Casey has emerged as the top pass catcher on the team. He also has the ability to run the football (5.4 ypc.) and isn’t afraid to go over the middle and make the tough catch. WR’s Toren Dixon and Tom Henderson are also legit threats and will put pressure on the Vandy secondary. Even if Vandy CB D.J. Moore covers Dillard, they will still have their hands full with Casey and crew. RB C.J. Ugokwe is a serviceable back, but will need to pick up his production for Rice to sustain drives this week. Rice’s veteran offensive line will have to work hard vs. the Vanderbilt line, but I feel they are up to the task. Defensively, Rice will need to put most of their emphasis on stopping Vandy QB Chris Nickson. Nickson is responsible for almost 75% of Vanderbilt’s offense and I feel it will be easier for Rice’s defense to match up with Vanderbilt’s offense this week than they did last week with Memphis. I say this because Memphis has a lot of playmaking WR’s, whereas Vanderbilt’s are more possession guys. RB Jared Hawkins has run well this year, taking some of the pressure off Nickson. I give a slight edge to Vanderbilt in special teams, but the intangibles edge goes to Rice. Although Rice snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week, this is a team that has become accustomed to those types of victories. Vanderbilt, though, is primed for a let down after beating SEC foe South Carolina. They haven’t won a whole lot of SEC games in their tenure. Bobby Johnson is a good coach for Vandy, but Rice’s David Baliff is really starting to grow on me. It should be a wild game and I know many purely statistical handicappers may not agree with my pick here, but somehow, some way Rice finds a way to keep this thing close. These guys believe.
Fresno St. -1
Pat Hill has called this week’s game vs. Wisconsin “the biggest game in Fresno State football history”. The last three games his team have played, they’ve beat Kansas State, Georgia Tech and Rutgers respectively. Like I talked about last week with East Carolina, this Fresno State team will not be at all intimidated by Wisconsin coming to the Central Valley. I think the 7:30 PM PST start time is also important to note because when this game is in the fourth quarter Wisconsin will be playing at approximately 1 AM CST. I stress this aspect because I do anticipate this being a smash mouth type of game between two similar teams, and the cross country trip Wisconsin is taking this week could ultimately be the difference. Fresno’s offense is led by senior QB Tom Brandstater. He’s a big quarterback, completes a high percentage and had a 3:1 TD to int. ratio last year. Fresno features two extremely talented RB’s in sophomore Ryan Matthews (14 TD’s last year) and Lonyae Miller (7 TD’s last year). Look for them to pound the ball vs. a Wisconsin defense that typically doesn’t perform as well away from Madison. It’s important to note that two key defensive starters are coming off of injuries and have yet to play a down this season. Although LB Johnathon Casillas will play this week, but this will be his first live game action. Fresno State returns eight of their top nine pass catchers from last year, including WR Marlon Moore (5 TD’s last year) and stud TE Bear Pasco (4 TD’s last year). Look for Fresno State to set up their passing game with their running game, much like they did in week one vs. Rutgers. Defensively, Fresno State loses only four players from last year’s two deep. So, while they return seven starters, they also return a lot of their second team players as well. This is key because Wisconsin has a stable of running backs to pound the ball with. Although P.J. Hill gets the publicity, I’m most impressed with freshman running back Johathon Clay. QB Allan Eviridge, a Kansas State transfer, hasn’t played much throughout his career, but I was impressed with him last week in the game vs. Marshall. TE Travis Beckum is expected to play, but this will also be his first live action of the season. Fresno State will have it’s hands full with the Wisconsin offensive line, but Fresno also has excellent linebacker play. Both of these teams are extremely well coached and have good special teams. It comes down to Fresno State finally having a top BCS opponent make the trip to California and the late start time should favor them as the game goes on. Although Ohio St. vs. USC is being billed as the top game of the weekend, I think this game could trump that one.
Purdue +7
Anytime I can get an experienced QB at home with his team as a dog, who has a chance to lead his team vs. a team traveling cross-country it sparks my interest. I have watched senior QB Curtis Painter for several years now and I believe he is the most accurate QB in the country. Painter has the chance to finish as one of the top QB’s in Purdue history, which is saying a lot with all of the NFL talent that has come through the school during Joe Tiller’s tenure. As much success as he’s had, he continues to fly under the radar as not many people talk about his talents. He had nearly a 3:1 TD to int. ratio last year which is a sign of his ability to make excellent decisions. He also possesses a stronger throwing arm than most defensive coordinators think he has. Senior RB Kory Sheets leads the Purdue ground game, and although he had to share some of the carries last year, he still nearly topped 1000 yards on the season. Sheets also had 30 receptions out of the backfield. My biggest concern with Purdue heading into the season was the inexperience in the WR corps. I was able to watch them play last week and senior Greg Orton (67 receptions last year) was his solid self, but Desmond Tardy and Keith Smith also performed well. It was also interesting to see how converted QB and current slash back Justin Siller performs in this game as I think he has some big play potential. I do think that Oregon does have a good secondary, but the only QB they will face comparable to Painter is Rudy Carpenter. I’m not certain the Oregon’s defensive line will be able to create a consistent pass rush and even with a great secondary, if you give Painter enough time he will make throws against a defense. If Oregon blitzes with their linebackers, Painter can make big plays vs. the secondary that will be on islands. The strength of Purdue’s defense lies in the defensive line which will be key in defending the Oregon spread. Oregon has depth on offense, but going on the road for the first time away from the cozy confines of Autzen Stadium could expose some of their inexperience, especially at the QB position. RB’s Andre Crenshaw and Jeremiah Johnson are two solid players and Jason Johnson (8 TD’s last year) and Ed Dickson (3 TD’s last year) lead the WR corps. Sophomore QB Justin Roper has a total of 89 pass attempts in his career and going on the road across country vs. a solid Big Ten opponent will present a much more significant challenge for Roper than he has faced thus far this season. Oregon has the edge in special teams but again I give edge in intangibles to Purdue. This is Tiller’s last season at the helm for Purdue and it’s about time his team stepped up vs. top caliber competition. Look for an inspired effort this week from his team, led by a veteran QB who has everything to play for.Comment -
Aces,
thanks man...good to see you around...sorry to hear we are on opposite sides of that one...BOL to you...
drluck and diehardfan,
I hope you enjoy them...Comment -
Good write-up, thanks for the insight..
Lets get'em this week.....GL
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