I talked myself out of the LSU game, and I gravely regret that.
This game initially had me on Auburn all the way, but Oregon's manhandling of Stanford has me questioning my pick. However I just wanted to provide my $.02 to anyone else out there on the fence weighing in on these options.
Auburn's strategy:
Auburn is well aware of a suspect defense(specifically the secondary). Usually when teams know of this they play their corners on a big cushion and let the game play in front of them. This means they play a deep cover and allow the 10 yard yard dink and dunk hoping their front 7 can get a few stops or a turnover.
With the size advantage on the front 7 and a potent passer for Oregon I do not expect Auburn to routinely bring blitzes that will leave their secondary in man coverage against a future 2nd or 3rd string NFL QB. I do expect Oregon to average about 6-7 yards a run unless I am overestimating Oregon's line, and there may even be a 40 yard TD run ripped off but its hard to say the #1 team in the country will be damned by allowing their suspect secondary to get burned in the national championship game.
Additionally, last year Pryor rushed 20 times against Oregon and threw for over 250 yards(a player, especially last year very inferior to Newton as the ducks defense was also inferior). OSU used Pryors ability to control the game and keep the pace against the speedy California products Oregon has.
I think when it comes down to it, the defensive line will provide enough consistent pressure to enable Auburn the ability to leave men back in coverage. Though Auburn has never faced a spread offense like that of Oregon, I think they will have enough pressure with their front 4 and a blitzer or two to leave 6-7 men in coverage consistently. From what I can tell Thomas does not exactly have NFL quality release speed and I give the coaching advantage to Auburn.
If you understand what I am saying you know this does not usually translate into a 41-38 game. Additionally I believe the time off benefits Auburn as you can't study a running quarterback but you can a spread offense. Of course if I knew the exact answers I'd be a rich man, however, I am offering my unbiased opinion to help others out there on the fence about the four options this game has to offer.
If anyone else wants to weigh in feel free, I'm no capping expert nor am i Lombardi.
This game initially had me on Auburn all the way, but Oregon's manhandling of Stanford has me questioning my pick. However I just wanted to provide my $.02 to anyone else out there on the fence weighing in on these options.
Auburn's strategy:
Auburn is well aware of a suspect defense(specifically the secondary). Usually when teams know of this they play their corners on a big cushion and let the game play in front of them. This means they play a deep cover and allow the 10 yard yard dink and dunk hoping their front 7 can get a few stops or a turnover.
With the size advantage on the front 7 and a potent passer for Oregon I do not expect Auburn to routinely bring blitzes that will leave their secondary in man coverage against a future 2nd or 3rd string NFL QB. I do expect Oregon to average about 6-7 yards a run unless I am overestimating Oregon's line, and there may even be a 40 yard TD run ripped off but its hard to say the #1 team in the country will be damned by allowing their suspect secondary to get burned in the national championship game.
Additionally, last year Pryor rushed 20 times against Oregon and threw for over 250 yards(a player, especially last year very inferior to Newton as the ducks defense was also inferior). OSU used Pryors ability to control the game and keep the pace against the speedy California products Oregon has.
I think when it comes down to it, the defensive line will provide enough consistent pressure to enable Auburn the ability to leave men back in coverage. Though Auburn has never faced a spread offense like that of Oregon, I think they will have enough pressure with their front 4 and a blitzer or two to leave 6-7 men in coverage consistently. From what I can tell Thomas does not exactly have NFL quality release speed and I give the coaching advantage to Auburn.
If you understand what I am saying you know this does not usually translate into a 41-38 game. Additionally I believe the time off benefits Auburn as you can't study a running quarterback but you can a spread offense. Of course if I knew the exact answers I'd be a rich man, however, I am offering my unbiased opinion to help others out there on the fence about the four options this game has to offer.
If anyone else wants to weigh in feel free, I'm no capping expert nor am i Lombardi.
