Is Nevada/BC the Proverbial "Trap"???

[MuchoPeso]

Wow. After Nevada beat Boise their stock went thru the roof. Line opened at -10.5 and has moved to -7.5 with over 70% of public on Nevada.

BC is supposed to have a stout run-D(**)

Do you think it is because Nevada was way over-valued coming off the Boise win or is there something else?

[Numenor80]

I look for NEV to dominate this one. The NEV run game isn't like most that BC has seen.

[kiknit]

I look for NEV to dominate this one. The NEV run game isn't like most that BC has seen.

Im kinda stuck in the middle on this one. Nevada does have the nations top-ranked rushing offense and BC has the nations top ranked rushing D...but I think that stat is a little tilted because of the level of competition.

Nevada is in their 6th straight bowl season and they have been a huge let-down this far. Theyve lost 4 of the last 5 SU and ATS. In their last 3, they were outscored 110-45 and losing ATS by a combined 77pts. Remember last year vs Hawaii? The Pack were 12-pt chalks and got waxed, 45-10...were out-gained 534yds to 314yds and had less than 150 rush yards. Hawaii was up 45-3 before Nevada finally put their 1st TD on the board with less than 2min left in the 4th quarter. But that was last year. This year QB Kaepernick (59 career rush TDs, 20rush/20 pass this season) and RB Taua (2718 rush yards and 39TDs are a different bird.

Boston College isin their 12th straight bowl game, so theyve been here before. Nations #1 rush D - holding opponents to less than 3yards per rush and no one topping 141yards this season.
They needed a 5-0 run at the end of the season to get this bowl game...in which they allowed 10, 13, 16 13 and 7 pts. But also ranked 87th, 93rd, 105th and 107th in their run, pass, total and scoring offence. Harris (1,243 rush hards which leads the ACC) is a threat.

One last lil tid-bit. Wolfpack ranks 1st in the nation in First Downs and Boston College ranks 116th. OK - one more...since Im a numbers guy: Sagarin Ratings puts Boston College's SOS at 55 and Nevada at 86. That 'model' calls for a Boston College cover.

Line looks to be down around Nevada (-7) or (-7.5) in some places...gotta think Nevada, on paper, has this one in the bag. I may find a small play on the points and Nevada on the ML to wrap up the Bowl Season UnderCard leading up to the Monday night Championship.

Nevada 35, Boston College 21

Just my $0.02.

[thenate023]

im leaning towards nevada in this one even though i think it will be a shootout hopefully the spread isnt a factor

[steve18]

The over is probably worth looking at.

[saints1856]

I've seen Nevada play in person this year - their running game will ROLL over BC

[CollegePro]

I've seen Nevada play in person this year - their running game will ROLL over BC

seeing nevada play in person got nothing to do with them running over BC... this is one of the hillarious post I ever seen

[linedrivr]

im leaning towards nevada in this one even though i think it will be a shootout hopefully the spread isnt a factor

I don't think BC's 18.9 ppg offense and subpar QB play is built for a shootout type game. If BC doesn't turn the ball over and their defense can stop Nevada's ground game, they can keep it close.

[saints1856]

seeing nevada play in person got nothing to do with them running over BC... this is one of the hillarious post I ever seen

Yeah, I guess you don't have to see something in person to know. I've never seen you before, and can tell you're a loser.

Nevada 38-24.

[ManBearPig]

I'll be the game tonight and I'm a Nevada fan so take it for what it's worth.

We win if we two things.

Pass first run second. The reason being the perception is we're a running team "only" and that if they stack the line and force us to pass first. One thing people don't realize is how we've improved in this area and Colin can hit the open man and doesn't have to run all the time. Due to the perception that BC is a BCS team and will dominate our run game forcing us to pass is the one thing that could matter.

Our defense
We haven't been known for our ability to stop the pass and for the common fan they probably don't realize the improvement we've made in this area. I know BC has a stout back that will cause problems but I'm not sure if they realize how good our D-Line is and Moch (55) will be trying to make a name for himself tonight so I expect big things from him. Controlling the run game and getting pressure on the QB is critical.

I cannot bet on this game with my heart so I'm avoiding but I would play Nevada or no play. I think if it's under the spread they may win this.

One more thing to consider. I'm in Union Square right now and it's a fuking mad house. There are Nevada flags and fans everywhere. They are predicting 25k to be here but I'm thinking it will be closer to 30...I've never seen this amount of support for them and it will pump the guys up tremendously as it's basically a home game for us. Our home record is undefeated this year and I think as a psuedo home game we continue that and win this one...42-31 ish.

Just my two cents but either way it'll be fun.

[trojanman]

I'll be the game tonight and I'm a Nevada fan so take it for what it's worth.

We win if we two things.

Pass first run second. The reason being the perception is we're a running team "only" and that if they stack the line and force us to pass first. One thing people don't realize is how we've improved in this area and Colin can hit the open man and doesn't have to run all the time. Due to the perception that BC is a BCS team and will dominate our run game forcing us to pass is the one thing that could matter.

Our defense
We haven't been known for our ability to stop the pass and for the common fan they probably don't realize the improvement we've made in this area. I know BC has a stout back that will cause problems but I'm not sure if they realize how good our D-Line is and Moch (55) will be trying to make a name for himself tonight so I expect big things from him. Controlling the run game and getting pressure on the QB is critical.

I cannot bet on this game with my heart so I'm avoiding but I would play Nevada or no play. I think if it's under the spread they may win this.

One more thing to consider. I'm in Union Square right now and it's a fuking mad house. There are Nevada flags and fans everywhere. They are predicting 25k to be here but I'm thinking it will be closer to 30...I've never seen this amount of support for them and it will pump the guys up tremendously as it's basically a home game for us. Our home record is undefeated this year and I think as a psuedo home game we continue that and win this one...42-31 ish.

Just my two cents but either way it'll be fun.

great post - i'm on Nevada - good luck

[gordan21]

you saw then in person

[hawk 5]

I saw Iowa in person so BC + the points.

[stefan084]

if that guy saw Iowa in person, I'll definitely take Nevada

[raidersfan]

Yeah, I guess you don't have to see something in person to know. I've never seen you before, and can tell you're a loser.

Nevada 38-24.

[walkingdude2]

Mismatch in my opinion

BC can't compete with good teams and Nevada can

I am doubling up on Nev -7.5

[darrell74]

Nevada team total over 31 -120
Wolf Pack offense will be strong

[hawk 5]

if that guy saw Iowa in person, I'll definitely take Nevada

[chargers4222]

over!!!! shootout city nevada rolls

[brock]

I see Navada covering.

[ebbearsfb1]

is public gonna dominate all day today?