BCS National Championship Preview
The Oregon Ducks have been the BCS title contender that most closely resembles past national champions, and the Auburn Tigers have a flawed statistical profile because of certain deficiencies on defense. This model will be put to the test Jan. 10, when the two teams meet in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game. But reaching the conclusion that the Ducks will take down the Tigers isn't that simple; my model looks at certain statistical categories that correlate with winning in college football as well as set benchmarks in these categories that have been met by past BCS title winners to see which teams this season most closely resemble past champions (from a statistical standpoint).
Auburn has been coming up short on defense all season long, and it's still missing a benchmark in points allowed per game. (No national champion of the past six seasons has allowed more than 19.9 points per game; the Tigers are giving up an average of 24.5.) However, Auburn's defense has improved in other defensive categories, including turnover margin and sacks per game, and it has one of the more stout run defenses in the country. So to break down this matchup, I've broken down each benchmark individually to see where each team is vulnerable and what chance Auburn has going up against a statistically superior team -- with a national championship on the line.
Benchmark: Average 29.7 points per game or more
Cleared: Oregon (49.3), Auburn (42.7)
Oregon and Auburn both clear this benchmark with ease, as they are the first- and sixth-highest scoring teams in the country, respectively. (Think this game might be fun to watch?) The Tigers have been held below 30 points just four times all season, while the Ducks have only one game below 30, a 15-13 win over California. It's highly unlikely either one of these teams will lose the national title because of an inability to put points on the board.
Benchmark: Average 160 rushing yards per game
Cleared: Oregon (303.8 yards per game), Auburn (287.2)
The Ducks' and Tigers' offenses both do their best work on the ground, which means that stopping the run will be key in this one. Oregon's run D is solid, as is the rest of its defense, but Auburn's is even better, allowing only 112 yards on the ground per game, good for 11th in the country. The Tigers have plenty of trouble stopping opposing passing attacks (more on that later), but their best strength on D matches up well against the most explosive aspect of Oregon's offense. The only time the Ducks truly came close to losing this season, against Cal, the Bears held Oregon to only 162 yards on the ground.
The Ducks haven't yet faced a rushing attack like Auburn's, but they have fared well against the two best running games they've gone up against, holding Stanford to 177 yards and USC to 113, both well less than the teams' season averages. Likewise, Oregon has a running game far more productive than any Auburn has seen, but the Tigers clamped down on top SEC rushing teams Mississippi State, LSU and Alabama. (However, they did allow Ole Miss, third in the SEC, to gash them for 218 yards.)
Benchmark: Have a QB rating of 133.63 or better
Cleared: Auburn (186.86), Oregon (151.71)
Cameron Newton deserves all the credit he gets for his abilities as a runner, but this might be more impressive: The Tigers lead the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 186.86. The Ducks have kept quarterbacks from having success against them all season long, however, ranking sixth in the nation in pass-efficiency D. They forced top Pac-10 quarterbacks Andrew Luck,,Nick Foles, and Matt Barkley into performances below their averages. (Luck and Barkley had particularly tough times with the Ducks' D.) They do give up a decent number of yards through the air, so there still might be opportunities for Newton to move the ball vertically. He'll just have to worry about a team that's picked off 20 passes this season and allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53 percent of their throws.
Ducks QB Darron Thomas is plenty efficient in his own right, and the Tigers' pass defense has been their glaring weakness all season long. They are a bad 75th in the country in pass-efficiency defense and a worse 105th in passing yards allowed. The majority of the Ducks' yards come on the ground, though, not through the air, so they might not be as effective at carving up Auburn's secondary as teams like Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia were this year. (All three have better pass-efficiency numbers than Oregon.)
Benchmark: Have a 0.36 or better turnover margin
Cleared: Oregon (1.08), Auburn (.38)
The Ducks do a great job of forcing turnovers, while the Tigers have had good success avoiding them. It's not surprising that Oregon had trouble forcing turnovers in its close call to Cal, recovering only a single fumble while coughing up one of its own. Auburn had a pair of turnovers in each of its early-season near losses against Mississippi State and Clemson. Even though the Tigers are hanging on to this benchmark, Oregon has the clear advantage in this category.
Benchmark: Average 2.29 sacks or more per game
Cleared: Oregon (2.58 per game), Auburn (2.54)
The two teams are close to even in this category, and given Auburn's vulnerabilities in the secondary, it's particularly important that the Tigers get to Darron Thomas. They've flashed their potential the past two weeks, recording five sacks against Alabama and three against South Carolina. Auburn has seen great improvement in this benchmark to end the season, and if the defense is going to have a shot at slowing down the Ducks, getting pressure on the quarterback will be essential.
Benchmark: Hold opponents to 19.9 points per game or fewer
Cleared: Oregon (18.42 points allowed)
Not cleared: Auburn (24.46)
This is where Auburn trips up in the Eliminator -- plain and simple, it doesn't have a BCS championship-caliber defense, based on the statistical profiles of past winners. Of course, it's important to point out that no SEC champ had had a defense that let in as many points as Auburn until the Tigers knocked off South Carolina to take the title on Saturday. The team has been tested in shootouts throughout the 2010 season, and every time, it has come out on top. (Of course, other than in practice, Auburn's D hasn't yet seen a team that comes close to Oregon's point production.)
A good comparison for this year's Auburn squad is the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners. Bob Stoops' team averaged more than 51 points per game but let in 24.5 (the same as Auburn to this point). When it came time for the Sooners to play an elite offensive and defensive team in Florida (the Gators allowed only 13 points per game), they came up short, losing 24-14. In other words, a word of caution for fans of Newton, who is seen by some as a second coming of a previous SEC Heisman Trophy winner: Even Tim Tebow needed an elite defense to win a national championship. For this reason, if history repeats itself, Oregon will clip Auburn to win the national championship.
Auburn has been coming up short on defense all season long, and it's still missing a benchmark in points allowed per game. (No national champion of the past six seasons has allowed more than 19.9 points per game; the Tigers are giving up an average of 24.5.) However, Auburn's defense has improved in other defensive categories, including turnover margin and sacks per game, and it has one of the more stout run defenses in the country. So to break down this matchup, I've broken down each benchmark individually to see where each team is vulnerable and what chance Auburn has going up against a statistically superior team -- with a national championship on the line.
Benchmark: Average 29.7 points per game or more
Cleared: Oregon (49.3), Auburn (42.7)
Oregon and Auburn both clear this benchmark with ease, as they are the first- and sixth-highest scoring teams in the country, respectively. (Think this game might be fun to watch?) The Tigers have been held below 30 points just four times all season, while the Ducks have only one game below 30, a 15-13 win over California. It's highly unlikely either one of these teams will lose the national title because of an inability to put points on the board.
Benchmark: Average 160 rushing yards per game
Cleared: Oregon (303.8 yards per game), Auburn (287.2)
The Ducks' and Tigers' offenses both do their best work on the ground, which means that stopping the run will be key in this one. Oregon's run D is solid, as is the rest of its defense, but Auburn's is even better, allowing only 112 yards on the ground per game, good for 11th in the country. The Tigers have plenty of trouble stopping opposing passing attacks (more on that later), but their best strength on D matches up well against the most explosive aspect of Oregon's offense. The only time the Ducks truly came close to losing this season, against Cal, the Bears held Oregon to only 162 yards on the ground.
The Ducks haven't yet faced a rushing attack like Auburn's, but they have fared well against the two best running games they've gone up against, holding Stanford to 177 yards and USC to 113, both well less than the teams' season averages. Likewise, Oregon has a running game far more productive than any Auburn has seen, but the Tigers clamped down on top SEC rushing teams Mississippi State, LSU and Alabama. (However, they did allow Ole Miss, third in the SEC, to gash them for 218 yards.)
Benchmark: Have a QB rating of 133.63 or better
Cleared: Auburn (186.86), Oregon (151.71)
Cameron Newton deserves all the credit he gets for his abilities as a runner, but this might be more impressive: The Tigers lead the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 186.86. The Ducks have kept quarterbacks from having success against them all season long, however, ranking sixth in the nation in pass-efficiency D. They forced top Pac-10 quarterbacks Andrew Luck,,Nick Foles, and Matt Barkley into performances below their averages. (Luck and Barkley had particularly tough times with the Ducks' D.) They do give up a decent number of yards through the air, so there still might be opportunities for Newton to move the ball vertically. He'll just have to worry about a team that's picked off 20 passes this season and allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53 percent of their throws.
Ducks QB Darron Thomas is plenty efficient in his own right, and the Tigers' pass defense has been their glaring weakness all season long. They are a bad 75th in the country in pass-efficiency defense and a worse 105th in passing yards allowed. The majority of the Ducks' yards come on the ground, though, not through the air, so they might not be as effective at carving up Auburn's secondary as teams like Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia were this year. (All three have better pass-efficiency numbers than Oregon.)
Benchmark: Have a 0.36 or better turnover margin
Cleared: Oregon (1.08), Auburn (.38)
The Ducks do a great job of forcing turnovers, while the Tigers have had good success avoiding them. It's not surprising that Oregon had trouble forcing turnovers in its close call to Cal, recovering only a single fumble while coughing up one of its own. Auburn had a pair of turnovers in each of its early-season near losses against Mississippi State and Clemson. Even though the Tigers are hanging on to this benchmark, Oregon has the clear advantage in this category.
Benchmark: Average 2.29 sacks or more per game
Cleared: Oregon (2.58 per game), Auburn (2.54)
The two teams are close to even in this category, and given Auburn's vulnerabilities in the secondary, it's particularly important that the Tigers get to Darron Thomas. They've flashed their potential the past two weeks, recording five sacks against Alabama and three against South Carolina. Auburn has seen great improvement in this benchmark to end the season, and if the defense is going to have a shot at slowing down the Ducks, getting pressure on the quarterback will be essential.
Benchmark: Hold opponents to 19.9 points per game or fewer
Cleared: Oregon (18.42 points allowed)
Not cleared: Auburn (24.46)
This is where Auburn trips up in the Eliminator -- plain and simple, it doesn't have a BCS championship-caliber defense, based on the statistical profiles of past winners. Of course, it's important to point out that no SEC champ had had a defense that let in as many points as Auburn until the Tigers knocked off South Carolina to take the title on Saturday. The team has been tested in shootouts throughout the 2010 season, and every time, it has come out on top. (Of course, other than in practice, Auburn's D hasn't yet seen a team that comes close to Oregon's point production.)
A good comparison for this year's Auburn squad is the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners. Bob Stoops' team averaged more than 51 points per game but let in 24.5 (the same as Auburn to this point). When it came time for the Sooners to play an elite offensive and defensive team in Florida (the Gators allowed only 13 points per game), they came up short, losing 24-14. In other words, a word of caution for fans of Newton, who is seen by some as a second coming of a previous SEC Heisman Trophy winner: Even Tim Tebow needed an elite defense to win a national championship. For this reason, if history repeats itself, Oregon will clip Auburn to win the national championship.