Each week I try to predict all the opens. The number I come up with is a combination of what I think the line will be and what i think it should be. The first number is the bookmaker open - I've noted in parentheses if they've moved already - The second number is the open I predicted.
UAB -2.5 : ECU -4
I'm more consistently wrong about UAB lines than any other team in America. It's like everyone in the world knows their games are fixed but me.
Maryland -1 : Maryland -4
UVA is legit terrible, and Maryland is a little better than I thought - Don't really get this being near even.
UCF -10 (9.5) : UCF -4.5
Was hoping for another week of great UCF value, but it seems those days have passed.
FSU -7.5 : FSU -4
FSU has played 4 good to OK teams and are 1-3 in those games. Clemson isnt great on the road, but they don't get blown out - lots of common opponents and comparable results. I really think 4 is the right number.
Oklahoma -16 (14.5) : OKLA -7.5
OK still getting too much respect - they have one good win. Tx Tech is a little hard to figure out though - meh who knows.
Florida -7 (6) : FLA -1
I guess this is just teams moving in different directions, but USCe has a lot more talent than FLA for the first time in forever. If Spurrier just watches the Miss St film and runs lattimore 40 times/Garcia 10 times they win this game outright like every time. This line is more an indictment of a well thought of coach than any I can remember. i know it's the swamp at night, but that hasn't seemed to matter much this year.
Kentucky -15.5 (off board now) : KY -9
Eh, I was probably just wrong about this one - It felt weird making KY double digit fav vs anyone in conference, but i guess vandy is that bad.
BYU -6 : BYU -10
Probably won't touch this - colo st has actually improved quite a bit since the beginning of the season and BYU is difficult to figure out.
Arkansas -30.5 (29.5) : ARK -24
Seems like the perfect spot for a letdown week and UTEP can score a little.
Marshall -16.5 (17.5) : Marshall -7
I can't believe I'm considering betting on Memphis as they are truly terrible, but Marshall shouldn't be giving anyone 17.
OK State -6.5 (6) : OK ST -10
Texas is still getting too much respect. They are the Cowboys of college football. K State = Jacksonville Jaguars (read terrible). Ok State = Green Bay Packers.
Mizzou -12.5 (13) : Mizzou -6
Im pissed about this one - was hopeful that week 9/10's results would have this closer and i could put everything I own on mizzou.
VA Tech -5.5 (5) : Va Tech -3
So Va Tech is still getting love based on what - their win at NC State? Their performance against that vaunted Al Groh defense? No Thx.
Louisville -2 : USF pk
I've bet on/against both these teams a lot this year and have had pretty good success week to week. Would probably take whichever side is getting points. Will wait and hope it gets to 3.
Nevada -9.5 (9) : Nevada -4
Night game at Fresno + I still can't get out of my head what the Utah St offense did in the 2nd half v Nevada. Final Score Nevada 56 Fresno 55. Will prob take some fresno moneyline as well.
Wyoming -7 (6) : Wyoming -4
Any team capable of losing to New Mexico should not be giving any other team a touchdown - even godawful UNLV.
Tell me where I'm wrong or add your own games that don't quite make sense and I'll tell you what I think.
UAB -2.5 : ECU -4
I'm more consistently wrong about UAB lines than any other team in America. It's like everyone in the world knows their games are fixed but me.
Maryland -1 : Maryland -4
UVA is legit terrible, and Maryland is a little better than I thought - Don't really get this being near even.
UCF -10 (9.5) : UCF -4.5
Was hoping for another week of great UCF value, but it seems those days have passed.
FSU -7.5 : FSU -4
FSU has played 4 good to OK teams and are 1-3 in those games. Clemson isnt great on the road, but they don't get blown out - lots of common opponents and comparable results. I really think 4 is the right number.
Oklahoma -16 (14.5) : OKLA -7.5
OK still getting too much respect - they have one good win. Tx Tech is a little hard to figure out though - meh who knows.
Florida -7 (6) : FLA -1
I guess this is just teams moving in different directions, but USCe has a lot more talent than FLA for the first time in forever. If Spurrier just watches the Miss St film and runs lattimore 40 times/Garcia 10 times they win this game outright like every time. This line is more an indictment of a well thought of coach than any I can remember. i know it's the swamp at night, but that hasn't seemed to matter much this year.
Kentucky -15.5 (off board now) : KY -9
Eh, I was probably just wrong about this one - It felt weird making KY double digit fav vs anyone in conference, but i guess vandy is that bad.
BYU -6 : BYU -10
Probably won't touch this - colo st has actually improved quite a bit since the beginning of the season and BYU is difficult to figure out.
Arkansas -30.5 (29.5) : ARK -24
Seems like the perfect spot for a letdown week and UTEP can score a little.
Marshall -16.5 (17.5) : Marshall -7
I can't believe I'm considering betting on Memphis as they are truly terrible, but Marshall shouldn't be giving anyone 17.
OK State -6.5 (6) : OK ST -10
Texas is still getting too much respect. They are the Cowboys of college football. K State = Jacksonville Jaguars (read terrible). Ok State = Green Bay Packers.
Mizzou -12.5 (13) : Mizzou -6
Im pissed about this one - was hopeful that week 9/10's results would have this closer and i could put everything I own on mizzou.
VA Tech -5.5 (5) : Va Tech -3
So Va Tech is still getting love based on what - their win at NC State? Their performance against that vaunted Al Groh defense? No Thx.
Louisville -2 : USF pk
I've bet on/against both these teams a lot this year and have had pretty good success week to week. Would probably take whichever side is getting points. Will wait and hope it gets to 3.
Nevada -9.5 (9) : Nevada -4
Night game at Fresno + I still can't get out of my head what the Utah St offense did in the 2nd half v Nevada. Final Score Nevada 56 Fresno 55. Will prob take some fresno moneyline as well.
Wyoming -7 (6) : Wyoming -4
Any team capable of losing to New Mexico should not be giving any other team a touchdown - even godawful UNLV.
Tell me where I'm wrong or add your own games that don't quite make sense and I'll tell you what I think.
