TUESDAY GAME: Middle Ten (-1) @ Arkansas St

golfrulz · 11-01-10, 11:55 PM

these teams evenly match up imo.....maybe the over?

SportNut · 11-02-10, 12:05 AM

I like Arkansas St...they can put up points...home crowd
big factor...

SportNut · 11-02-10, 12:07 AM

Looks like MT have more turnovers...

gilbert91016 · 11-02-10, 12:08 AM

Over seems solid

LINE-crush-ER · 11-02-10, 12:19 AM

I ll bet against anyone that lost to Memphis and if your going to give me points thats only a Plus
Arkansas State for the simple fact Middle Tenn State Lost to Memphis
Ok
really These teams look real close on paper but realistically the reason above was my deciding factor

jackpot269 · 11-02-10, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by aman86

I don't really understand this line much. Middle Ten was great last year and I recall seeing dasher ripping it up. However, this year is a different story as he was 2nd string early on and then became the starter the past 3 games in which they had not fared too well. They don't pass well and so will rely on dasher and co. to run.

On the other hand Arkansas St. has a reliable QB and have been putting up nice offensive numbers. Apparently their D sucks but I'm thinking trying to stop Middle Ten's run will be easier than repairing a shoddy secondary.

Additionally, Arkansas St. has done much better against similar opponents and have played better teams simply tougher and have covered 4 of the last 5.

on top of all of that they are playing at home on a weekday game and they are the UNDERDOGS!!??

Therefore, it leads me to believe that Middle Ten is the play simply because of the line although my instincts are large on Arkansas St.

What do you guys think?

I think Dasher was suspended for some of the games he didn't play in

SportNut · 11-02-10, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by gilbert91016

Over seems solid

Ya over looks real good...

sviking · 11-02-10, 01:44 AM

Arkansas State and the points for me. BOL!

FilletMaster · 11-02-10, 01:51 AM

Arkansas State at home is the best play! Also lean the under... these two never play over the current total (59)

gtboy · 11-02-10, 03:02 AM

under is play. also maybe take a shoot at MT.

aman86 · 11-02-10, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by jackpot269

I think Dasher was suspended for some of the games he didn't play in

Alright, good stuff guys keep it coming

FeelinJuiced · 11-02-10, 09:46 AM

Tuesday games are always crap shoots ATS... Under seems smart and if you're gonna go ATS gotta lean towards home field advantage. BOL y'all

AdamL2424 · 11-02-10, 09:54 AM

Dont tell you me you believed aman hahaha... Dasher was suspended not 2nd string. He didnt have to earn his job back they put him in when he came back. Do just a little bit of research. Ark St. +3.5 @ 5dimes

LINE-crush-ER · 11-02-10, 10:10 AM

an article I found
Middle Tennessee State snapped a two game skid with an impressive 38-10 win over Sun Belt rival UL Monroe. Generally when the Blue Raiders have a good game offensively, Dwight Dasher is at the forefront. This wasn’t as explosive as he’s been but it was a productive day nonetheless as he passed for 219 yards and two scores with a pick and 66 yards on the ground. The rushing attack was their bread and butter with 244 yards split amongst six players and four with 47 yards or more.

The MTSU defense usually plays second fiddle to their counterparts on offense, but this was their best effort of the season to date. They gave up just 269 yards and 3-18 on third down so UL M never was able to drive the field and play keep away from Dasher and company. They returned an interception 70 yards on the Warhawks opening drive which set the tone for the remainder of the contest, which was one of their two picks on the day.

Arkansas State thrashed Florida Atlantic 37-16 to move to 3-2 in the Sun Belt and give them an outside shot at the conference championship. Any success this team has comes on the right arm of Ryan Aplin and this game proved that as he was 28 of 46 for 230 yards, a score and a pick. He also led the Red Wolves with 64 yards on the ground as he led ten runners to 174 rushing yards, which is impressive for a team ranked #83 nationally. Their problem was they put up 28 points in the fourth quarter and need to start games strong instead of frantic endings

The ASU defense played their strongest game of the season, holding the Owls to 319 yards and just 2-13 on third down. The key was they forced three giveaways and returned a fourth quarter interception 37 yards that gave them a 23-16 lead. They also controlled the running game and constantly pressured Jeff Van Camp in the passing attack. Like the offense, they have been part of frantic endings also and this was one of the few games where they were solid for 60 minutes.

This game features the strong passing of Arkansas State versus the dual threat of Dwight Dasher and the Middle Tennessee offense. I look for the Blue Raiders to attack a weak ASU run defense that gives up nearly 200 yards per contest. Both teams are still alive in the Sun Belt, but to me MTSU is the better squad on both sides of the ball with more balance and weapons…

LINE-crush-ER · 11-02-10, 10:13 AM

what the article above does not state
“It’s a huge game for us,” Arkansas State coach Steve Roberts said. “Middle Tennessee returns a lot of people from a team that had a big season last year. They obviously have had some difficulty this year with the quarterback being suspended for the first four games. He’s back now, playing very well. They are very multiple and very good in all three phases of the game.”

and thats what I kind of see - Arkansas State being a much better team lately
I also noticed in conference games where Mtsu was out gained rushing
I still like Arkansas State for tonights pick

aman86 · 11-02-10, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by AdamL2424

Dont tell you me you believed aman hahaha... Dasher was suspended not 2nd string. He didnt have to earn his job back they put him in when he came back. Do just a little bit of research. Ark St. +3.5 @ 5dimes

It wasn't intentional buddy I fixed it now, Jesus. That's why I'm asking for help...

EricZ116 · 11-02-10, 11:00 AM

Just got ark st at +2 on bodog.

mandude · 11-02-10, 01:43 PM

It seems a majority on this board are on Ark St. You know what usually happens when thats the case.

VicVega91 · 11-02-10, 02:09 PM

Ark St Sag rating is 62.7 vs MTSU at 53.1. Their respective Massey ratings are at 28.7 for Ark St and a 25.1 for MTSU. The most interesting thing to me is their AO Sag rating which is 61.8 for Ark St and a 59.5 for MTSU. This last number is the cumulative average rating for their respective opponents. This tells me that (at least according to Sagarin) that Ark St has played tougher opponents overall

D3 Mighty Ducks · 11-02-10, 02:17 PM

Only a true degenerate gambler will bet on a game like this.

VicVega91 · 11-02-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Only a true degenerate gambler will bet on a game like this.

Money is money, does not matter if it is shitty ass game or the Super Bowl and usually the lower level ones are easire to cap

sviking · 11-02-10, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Only a true degenerate gambler will bet on a game like this.

You're right, unless for some reason you follow the sun belt it's a complete shot in the dark.

TonyP · 11-02-10, 02:47 PM

Who has the worst run defense

ronjon619 · 11-02-10, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by SportNut

I like Arkansas St...they can put up points...home crowd
big factor...

I'm liking it for these reasons also. Toss up game for the better offensive team at home.

Mr Handicapable · 11-02-10, 03:12 PM

I took Arkansas State last year in Iowa getting 22 points or something and they only lost by 6 if my memory is correct? I know Indiana sucks but Ark. St. still put up 34 points on a Big Ten team this year....Northwestern only got 20 last week on IU! I think Ark. St. gets it done at home!

goallinebob · 11-02-10, 03:16 PM

MTS favorite44% giving points but public 56% on Ark St ,,play is MTS,, additionally plays that involved a -.05 negative increase over the opening line is 12-2 to the favorite over the last 2 weeks,,,GL on your plays

Also dogs with Higher bet percentage over favorites do not fare well visit Diesels thread,, 7-2 last saturday,,

VicVega91 · 11-02-10, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by TonyP

Who has the worst run defense

Ark St

HoulihansTX · 11-02-10, 03:23 PM

Over

Barnes01 · 11-02-10, 03:29 PM

50% chance of rain at gametime and ARK State is really one dimensional although they have played stiff competition

hankcream · 11-02-10, 04:04 PM

If you looked at both teams games against Troy, MTSU got blown out at home with Dasher playing and Ark St kept it close on the road. IMO It appears the wrong team is favored, small play on Ark St for me.

Barnes01 · 11-02-10, 04:07 PM

it's about matchups against one another not other teams. I don't really know the right side in this game, but the weather has to favor MTSU

brock · 11-02-10, 04:18 PM

I'm thinking Ark St and under.

GoldenYAK · 11-02-10, 04:26 PM

1st half under for me.

whoatommy · 11-02-10, 04:30 PM

You can look at both team's performance vs. Troy as a gauge. Troy absolutely manhandled MTSU in Tennessee with Dasher's first game back. He was really the only guy that gained positive yardage in that game. On the other hand, Arkansas State only lost by 7 to Troy and kept it within one score for most of the game. Both QB's are capable runners especially Dasher as he did it pretty well last season. But lately this season he seems to sit in the pocket and throw more often even when there are running lanes in front of him. With that said, going big on MTSU, as I think the Sun Belt conference really boils down to Troy and MTSU. And MTSU were heavily favored to win the conference coming into the season with a bunch of starters returning. They should pick it up in the conference games late into the season.

MTSU for 2 units