Michigan state ? Free money

rsnnh12 · 10-17-10, 11:51 PM

Haha I was just about to post the same thing. Only -7 against a very overrated Northwestern team?

Northwestern is 5-1, but look at the scores of their games-
@ Vanderbilt, W 23-21
vs Illinois St, W 37-3
@ Rice, W 30-13
vs Central Michigan, W 30-25
@ Minnesota, W 29-28
vs Purdue, L 20-17

A lot of close games in there, and none of those teams are even close to MSU's caliber. MSU wins by 20+

head_strong · 10-17-10, 11:53 PM

think it will be a good game...gl

drfunkmaster · 10-18-10, 12:04 AM

Good luck..

dume walker · 10-18-10, 01:40 AM

Careful, guys...

Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against MSU.

Coming off 2 big wins (especially beating Michigan) and with Iowa looming next, MSU is in a perfect letdown spot.

Home team is 4-1 in this series and they're playing at N'Western.

N'Western is coming off a bye week.

MSU is now 7-0. Last time they started out 6-0 (under Nick Saban) they got trounced their next 2 games.

These are all possible reasons this line seems lower than one would expect.

KingJIM · 10-18-10, 04:42 AM

Bye week and letdown spot aside MSU should be able to handle them easily.

Sportsnut1968 · 10-18-10, 07:09 AM

At first glance this game looks to easy....Mich St should be double digit favorites.....Make me wonder why it's so low.....Could be a perfect spot for a upset.....

ufcmma36 · 10-18-10, 08:42 AM

bol.....

iwantcougars · 10-18-10, 09:26 AM

remember iowa at northwestern last year? i'm staying away

spongerat · 10-18-10, 09:49 AM

those trends don't mean anything, teams are obviously different 6 years ago

agharah1 · 10-18-10, 10:31 AM

Iowa was playing at home last year, and the only reason they lost was because that was the game that Stanzi got hurt. Then they bounced back and almost beat OSU on the road without him. As for Michigan State, this is their first out of state road game. Their first two road games were to Detroit, MI and Ann Arbor, MI. That being said, Chicago isn't much of a road trip either, and there will be plenty of MSU fans at Northwestern's high-school caliber stadium.

MSU could letdown, but teams with defenses don't let down as much since they have something to fall back on when their offense isn't working. And the way Michigan is playing defense, it seems pretty obvious that all the state's defensive talent has committed to MSU.

Uncle Harv · 10-18-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Careful, guys...

Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against MSU.

Coming off 2 big wins (especially beating Michigan) and with Iowa looming next, MSU is in a perfect letdown spot.

Home team is 4-1 in this series and they're playing at N'Western.

N'Western is coming off a bye week.

MSU is now 7-0. Last time they started out 6-0 (under Nick Saban) they got trounced their next 2 games.

These are all possible reasons this line seems lower than one would expect.

Good info.

The Bet Master · 10-18-10, 03:31 PM

There's never free money in vegas. Could be an upset. All tight games for Northwestern, but there still a 5-1 ball club.

Deuce · 10-18-10, 04:37 PM

Easy winner folks.

LINE-crush-ER · 10-18-10, 11:16 PM

A. Game I really like is Air force
needless to say how much I like it
I'm thinking I might shoot a little at the money line

Michigan · 10-18-10, 11:20 PM

yeah they are just gonna be printing money

delve_deeper · 10-18-10, 11:43 PM

I'm thinking 31-23 State, so seems pretty close. No play for me.

jwbama23 · 10-19-10, 10:45 AM

Reminds me of FSU vs. Boston College last week

nbarlotta3 · 10-19-10, 10:58 AM

Easy moneyyyyyyy. I'm going big on this game.

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-19-10, 03:03 PM

Michigan St. wins this in a blow out. Look at the level of competition Northwestern has faced....and they barely squaked by most of those crappy teams they played.

Michigan St. is #7 in the country.....38-17 the final easily.

No coincidences · 10-19-10, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Michigan St. wins this in a blow out. Look at the level of competition Northwestern has faced....and they barely squaked by most of those crappy teams they played.

Michigan St. is #7 in the country.....38-17 the final easily.

This will be a close game.

The squares of the thread have definitely spoken. If you think MSU wins this going away, you are one.

packbacker79 · 10-19-10, 03:11 PM

RLM says Northwestern. Michigan State looks like a trap. Too early to tell but why in the world would the line open at Mich St -7 and drop to -5 when 78% of the 3,100 wagers placed so far are on Mich State. Line is going the wrong way. Be careful.

No coincidences · 10-19-10, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by packbacker79

RLM says Northwestern. Michigan State looks like a trap. Too early to tell but why in the world would the line open at Mich St -7 and drop to -5 when 78% of the 3,100 wagers placed so far are on Mich State. Line is going the wrong way. Be careful.

See dume's post.

I would stay far, far away from this one personally. Fitz is one of the better young coaches in America, and NW is coming off a loss with an extra week to prepare. MSU may win, but you'll be sweating it out until the very end at best.

pavyracer · 10-19-10, 03:35 PM

Free money sounds about right.

LINE-crush-ER · 10-19-10, 04:14 PM

with an avatar like obama , You know all about the free money

Originally posted by Michigan

yeah they are just gonna be printing money

with an avatar like obama , You know all about the free money :: )

jadenandashton · 10-19-10, 04:16 PM

I am a big believer in records can be very decieving and this is a perfect example. Northwestern is horrible. They are a 5-1 team that could very easily be 3-3. MSU is a proven team and the line at 5 right now is a gift. There was alot of games last week that were very similar with teams having good records but with no quality wins and they all got destroyed by much better teams. If you can grab this at 5 right now you should. This line will be back to 6.5 or 7 by Saturday if it isn't just know that vegas missed this one which they sometimes do. BOL whichever way you decide.

LINE-crush-ER · 10-19-10, 04:17 PM

-5 is a bet

bigkrezca32 · 10-19-10, 06:01 PM

God I hate betting Northwestern in spots like this. Remember last year? They lose to Syracuse and Minnesota early in the year...a few weeks later they eek out a 1 pt victory at home vs Indiana and then the next game get blown out at home vs Penn St.......How do they follow this up? With consecutive wins @Iowa, @Illinois and vs Wisconsin. They then go on to lose a bowl game they should have won vs Auburn........... With the bye week, with getting "put back in their place" vs Purdue, I think they have all the motivation they need to make this one hell of a game.....

With that said, I'd probably take MSU -5 (but not risk much at all). I simply don't think NU has the defensive front 7 to stop MSU's groung attack. But be careful thinking it's easy mney.

LINE-crush-ER · 10-19-10, 10:09 PM

when ever I get a chance I try to middle everything
I have a guy in town that makes his own damn lines and its been paying off
While every one was pushing the past couple of weeks Ive been hitting both sides
this guy will have it at 8 and the other will be right on at 5

PHLAK · 10-19-10, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by LINE-crush-ER

with an avatar like obama , You know all about the free money :: )

HAHAHA I spit my drink all over reading this one! Has to be the funniest thing I heard all day!
I am going with MS on this one too. I think they will continue to win after taking care of Michigan. Good Luck All!

RockyBalboa · 10-19-10, 10:34 PM

Down to -5.5 on Bodog...

I loved it at -7, so I will lock in on this line.

I tend to shy away from road favorites, but I like Sparty here.

CntryBoy · 10-19-10, 11:06 PM

I just jumped on it @ -4 1/2, have a feelin it'll go back the other way. GL to us!

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-19-10, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This will be a close game.

The squares of the thread have definitely spoken. If you think MSU wins this going away, you are one.

Another lame attempt at an insult with no proof or reason as to why Northwestern keeps this one close.

Intuitive_Edge · 10-19-10, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This will be a close game. .

agree

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-10, 12:39 AM

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Michigan State winning 55% of simulations, and Northwestern 45% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Michigan State commits fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. Northwestern wins 58% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Edwin Baker is averaging 63 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. Dan Persa is averaging 325 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (40% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NW +5 --- Over/Under line is 52.5

The Bottom line
Michigan State Has 3 Signature wins all ready
North western has a loss against a 4- 2 team in purdue who has one like opponent Notre dame that went on to loose 23-12
Michigan State won against Notre dame 34-31
Northwestern Cant keep up with Michigan state who seems like they have an answer for getting into the endzone from the redzone lately

MICHIGAN STATE ATS RECORD NORTHWESTERN ATS RECORD ATS EDGE
All Games 4-2-0 All Games 1-4-0 Michigan State
Road & Neutral Field1-1-0 Home Games 0-2-0 Michigan State
When Favored 2-2-0 When Underdog 0-0-0 No Edge
Conference Opp 3-0-0 Conference Opp 0-2-0 Michigan State
Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 No Edge