Reverse Line Movement for Saturday Football 10-16-10
October 16, 2010 7:13 AM by jeffdane - 0 Comments
Ok, hot topic and hot trend right now. Who has RLM and who will win as a RLM?
If you dont know what I'm talking about, I will explain quickly.
Each game has an opening line. From this opening line people start wagering on which side they like. There are sites to tell us who's wagering on who(sportsinsights is the biggest, i think), its on here as sbr, pregame, sportsbook, vegasinsider, and others but i believe sportsinsights is the best and most accurate. I would bet that most of the afformentioned sites use sportsinsights as well. Anyway, we identify rlm as when the line moves in the REVERSE direction than the wagering. Most believe that the line has moved in the REVERSE direction because of an injury, weather, suspension, or the myth that there is a lot of money played on this team. Sportsinsights gives us a percentage of wagers not percentage of money so this is where we think that the aveage bet size must be much larger for the lower percentage team if the line is moving in REVERSE. (Like I said there may be an injury or other reason for the REVERSE but I believe the sportsbooks already know about most injuries and what not before the line is released, therefore I will assume that these plays are based on something suspicious.
Another possible myth that I have is, that even if there is not more money on a side and it still moves REVERSE, then Vegas must think they have a strong tell on a certain game. If this is true, then they are willing to take as much action as possible on the other side, and give that side an even easier number(in their opinion).
I tend to agree with both sides. I believe there players out there they wager much more than the norm and they do move the lines. I would feel more confortable being on this side. I also think that the sportsbooks have a good idea on what side they want us on and I would definately rather be on the side of the sportsbooks. Put it together and it makes a lot of sense. The main problem with this approach is that once we finally realize what is happening we already lost a point or more. Anyway, still rather be with Vegas. So here we go for Saturday the 16th of October 2010.
I will put the time of game(est), the team with rlm, the opening line, the current line, and the bet %. I will put the play with the desired line. With the desired line you need not look up everything right before gametime, just match the lines up.
12:00 Syracuse +2.5, +1.5, 29% Syracuse +1.5
12:00 Illinois +7.5, +7, 27% Illinois +6.5
12:00 Arkansas State +14, +10, 28% Arkansas State +13
12:20 Vanderbilt +16.5, +14.5, 36%, Vanderbilt +15.5
3:30 Buffalo +14.5, +14, 33% Buffalo +13.5
3:30 Auburn -3, -3.5, 30% Auburn -4
3:30 Mid Tenn St +19, +18.5, 22% Mid Tennessee St +18
4:00 BYU +29.5, +29, 29% BYU +28.5
4:00 UAB -2, -2.5, 44% UAB -3
6:00 Kentucky +6.5, +4.5, 29% Kentucky +5.5
7:00 Mississippi St +9.5, +8, 19% Mississippi St +8.5
7:00 Wisconsin +6, +3.5, 25% Wisconsin +5
7:30 Washington St+24, +23, 34% Washington St +23
8:00 San Diego St +3.5, +1.5, 29% San Diego St +2.5
10:15 Washington +1.5, -2, 32% Washington +0.5
11:30 Hawaii +8.5, +6.5, 42% Hawaii +7.5
Now as far as who will with RLM? I lean towards the plays with more than one point movement and under 40% action. I prefer down in the 20's and 30's. If you use this list as a filter or a starting point I believe you will be very successful.
Jeffdane top 5 RLM for 10-16-10. (if lines move i may not play but as of now this is what I like.)
Kentucky
Wisconsin
San Diego State
Washington
Syracuse
October 16, 2010 7:13 AM by jeffdane - 0 Comments
Ok, hot topic and hot trend right now. Who has RLM and who will win as a RLM?
If you dont know what I'm talking about, I will explain quickly.
Each game has an opening line. From this opening line people start wagering on which side they like. There are sites to tell us who's wagering on who(sportsinsights is the biggest, i think), its on here as sbr, pregame, sportsbook, vegasinsider, and others but i believe sportsinsights is the best and most accurate. I would bet that most of the afformentioned sites use sportsinsights as well. Anyway, we identify rlm as when the line moves in the REVERSE direction than the wagering. Most believe that the line has moved in the REVERSE direction because of an injury, weather, suspension, or the myth that there is a lot of money played on this team. Sportsinsights gives us a percentage of wagers not percentage of money so this is where we think that the aveage bet size must be much larger for the lower percentage team if the line is moving in REVERSE. (Like I said there may be an injury or other reason for the REVERSE but I believe the sportsbooks already know about most injuries and what not before the line is released, therefore I will assume that these plays are based on something suspicious.
Another possible myth that I have is, that even if there is not more money on a side and it still moves REVERSE, then Vegas must think they have a strong tell on a certain game. If this is true, then they are willing to take as much action as possible on the other side, and give that side an even easier number(in their opinion).
I tend to agree with both sides. I believe there players out there they wager much more than the norm and they do move the lines. I would feel more confortable being on this side. I also think that the sportsbooks have a good idea on what side they want us on and I would definately rather be on the side of the sportsbooks. Put it together and it makes a lot of sense. The main problem with this approach is that once we finally realize what is happening we already lost a point or more. Anyway, still rather be with Vegas. So here we go for Saturday the 16th of October 2010.
I will put the time of game(est), the team with rlm, the opening line, the current line, and the bet %. I will put the play with the desired line. With the desired line you need not look up everything right before gametime, just match the lines up.
12:00 Syracuse +2.5, +1.5, 29% Syracuse +1.5
12:00 Illinois +7.5, +7, 27% Illinois +6.5
12:00 Arkansas State +14, +10, 28% Arkansas State +13
12:20 Vanderbilt +16.5, +14.5, 36%, Vanderbilt +15.5
3:30 Buffalo +14.5, +14, 33% Buffalo +13.5
3:30 Auburn -3, -3.5, 30% Auburn -4
3:30 Mid Tenn St +19, +18.5, 22% Mid Tennessee St +18
4:00 BYU +29.5, +29, 29% BYU +28.5
4:00 UAB -2, -2.5, 44% UAB -3
6:00 Kentucky +6.5, +4.5, 29% Kentucky +5.5
7:00 Mississippi St +9.5, +8, 19% Mississippi St +8.5
7:00 Wisconsin +6, +3.5, 25% Wisconsin +5
7:30 Washington St+24, +23, 34% Washington St +23
8:00 San Diego St +3.5, +1.5, 29% San Diego St +2.5
10:15 Washington +1.5, -2, 32% Washington +0.5
11:30 Hawaii +8.5, +6.5, 42% Hawaii +7.5
Now as far as who will with RLM? I lean towards the plays with more than one point movement and under 40% action. I prefer down in the 20's and 30's. If you use this list as a filter or a starting point I believe you will be very successful.
Jeffdane top 5 RLM for 10-16-10. (if lines move i may not play but as of now this is what I like.)
Kentucky
Wisconsin
San Diego State
Washington
Syracuse
